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After two decades of missteps by management and workers in the auto industry that led to worker concessions on wages to revive the US auto industry the labor movement in the US was weakened. Workers wages have fallen behind with tiered wages offering new workers even less per hour, loss of cost of living adjustments during a period of high inflation. Shawn Fain won the election at the UAW in March 2023 following a direct vote of the leadership by every member of the UAW under a government supervised arrangement. He is now shaking things up at the auto workers union in Detroit and midwestern states asking autoworkers to end the tiered wages, return cost of living adjustments and a 46% wage increase.

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At a time when multilateral financial and other institutions are not working properly on behalf of countries in the Global South, the G20 is seen as the place where the poor countries can find a voice. The African Union was admitted to the G20 nations with the support of India and the US at the New Delhi Summit. Before this the only nation from Africa was South Africa. The other countries are the original G8- US, Canada, Germany, France, European Union, Britain, Italy, Japan. These countries represented the already advanced economies. To these nations were added the newly advanced economies of Russia, South Korea and China, Australia for 11 economies. The 7 rapidly developing nations added are India, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.

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Ukraine has made progress in securing its situation in the Black Sea region through better surveillance and by reducing Russian naval advances in the Black Sea, according to one report. NYT's French says a look at different scenarios for the war in Ukraine shows a stalemate the most likely option. Ukraine's offensive in 2023 has advanced very slowly with Russia having heavily fortified its defences and having superior airpower. A route for Ukraine's grain exports was possible with UN & Turkey negotiated agreement for a Black Sea shipping route. Now that Russia has withdrawn from this agreement a new corridor is being established in the Black Sea using shipping routes that stay close to NATo countries borders on the Black Sea.

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The effort by the Tories in government in Britain to consign railways to managed decline during the green transition shows how little they understand the potential of rail. In Germany rail passes have cut the cost of traveling by Deutsche Bahn and created new interest in rail travel. Britain not only lacks such a plan, rail is being pushed into decline by the plan to cut 1000 ticket offices. About 90 percent of 750,000 comments about this plan were negative during the consultation period. It is now being scrapped. The Guardian says now is the time to create a renaissance for rail and Labour needs to lead the way just as president Biden has done for revitalizing Amtrak with $91 billion in planned investment. 

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President Biden was the first US president on a picket line when he joined the picket line at a UAW strike in Wixom, Michigan recently. Here Gene Sperling the Biden liason with the autoworkers UAW union, says Biden believes in a strategy that counters technological disruption in a different way. Biden wants companies to retool, reinvest and rehire workers in the same impacted community. This is the striking difference with Biden compared to any of his predecessors Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and the two Bush presidents. Not only will the president's support ensure 1200 jobs are preserved, another 1000 union jobs will be added at the Belvedire, Illinois location and $4.8 billion will be invested by Stellantis for a new parts distribution center and and electric vehicle factory.

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A new study in the Journal of the American Medical Association shows an alarming and unsettling gap in the life expectancy of men vs. women in the US. The JAMA study shows life expectancy of women at 79 years, and of men dropping down to 73 years. Combined with lower educational opportunities for men to go to college compared to women these numbers are difficult to grapple with. The pandemic hit men harder, the opioid epidemic also hit men harder, men also have higher rates of suicide, heart disease and diabetes. Action is needed. Looking back at the turn of the century in 1900 the difference was 2 years. Decline of smoking has improved the life expectancy of men- action was taken for this to happen. 

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Indian prime minister says on the lawn of the White House that India does not want to replace China in manufacturing, it wants to see India as the world's manufacturing centre in diversified supply chains where there is no overconcentration in one country which happened before the pandemic. Biden does not favor free trade agreements because in addition to undermining American workers and the environment, it also has the effect of shifting manufacturing to China because of loose agreement clauses about sources of manufacture and because many of the countries in the free trade agreements depend on China for manufacturing. India and the US are at a unique inflection point because both countries are gearing up for  new relationships in manufacturing and in the supply chains.

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Efforts in Utah by Governor Cox to limit the damage to children's mental health from overuse and addiction to social media outlets including Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok. Utah governor Cox says in answer to the question why now, the better question is why didn't we do this 5 years ago. "If this was child cancer or car accidents we would be losing our minds about this," he says. New laws in Utah would put time restrictions and give parents access to messages and posts. Utah and other states will file lawsuits to make tech companies accountable. The CDC found 3 in 5 American adolescent girls had mental health issues in 2021, this has increased every year since 2011.

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Jensen Huang founded Nvidia to develop chips for videogames in 3D graphics in 1993. Sega videogame maker in Japan had Nvidia develop the chips for its Dreamcast player. At the time Shoichiro Iramijiri was the engineer -who started Honda's first manufacturing plant in the US in 1984- heading Sega. Iramijiri liked Huang and wanted him to succeed. When the technical error of developing the chips using a wrong shape was made by Huang Nvidia was dropped by Sega for Dreamcast in 1997. Nvidia ran out of money and if it persisted with its poor design would have ended in 6 months. Instead Huang decided to switch to a new chip design with no money to do this. Iramijiri stepped in to get Huang a $5 million loan from Sega.

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The picture on the cost of living action is mixed. In this report some Easterners in Pennsylvania and New York are shown taking loans to pay for groceries at high prices. In Michigan trips to the supermarkets show a modest increase of 1% in prices and prices coming down. Overall the faster the situation the better it is for working people and a top priority for president Joe Biden. Biden has approached it on a macro and micro level with a range of actions to bring cost of living down for people, from action on student debt for 5 million people, from health care cost cuts setting a ceiling on what health care cost would be, to cutting costs in areas such as housing, groceries and gas through concerted action across the economy.

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What will the first days of Keir Starme be like after July 4, election day in Britain? On July 5 he will go to meet King Charles and address the British nation.  On July 5 and 6 he will appoint  top ranking ministers. On July 9  Tuesday he will go to the new parliament. This will be followed by meetings of NATO and in Europe. Rachel Reeves the first female chancellor, or minister of finance. 

Angela Raynor  as Deputy Prime Minister        David Lammy as Foreign Secretary.                   Wes Streeting  Health and Social Care.          Bridget Phillipson  Education

 

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Los Angeles Unified School District has voted for a ban on smartphone use in schools starting in January. Governor Newsom is proposing to have a state wide ban in California to support children and parents in school education. Florida and Indiana are Republican led states with state bans on smartphone in schools. New York Governor Kathy Hochul seeks one in 2025. California Governor Newsom says: "When children and teens are in schools they should be focused on studies, not on screens." He has four children in schools. Dr. Murthy says in NYT that children spending more than 3 hours a day on social media were feeling the double the effects of depression and anxiety symptoms. And the actual use is 4.8 hours per day for this age group.

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Heat domes such as this one are rarely seen in the northeastern US. This week mid June 2024 is seeing a heat dome develop over areas from Albany, New York to Pittsburgh and Chicago. A heat dome is an area of compressed air like a lid on a pot that stays that way over a vast area with the sun heating the air at the surface till air flows in from another part of the US. Thus seen in the summer in the south and southeast rarely in the north and northeastern US and is one more sign of the cha nges in weather patterns coming from climate change. Itself a result of business and industry operating over decades on fossil fuels coal and oil without any oversight over consequences.

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After the debt swap of old bonds for new bonds with private bondholders for an estimated 53% haircut, the IMF's March 2012 report on Greece says a lot remains unresolved. It predicts a "disorderly exit from the euro" without further help. The April 2012 elections may result in a dilution to committments to austerity policies in Greece, as these policies are highly unpopular in Greece. Greece is still "accident-prone." And competitiveness issues may take over a decade to resolve.

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Steven Rattner points to the decline in U.S. median household income as a result of globalization. At $7 an hour GM's Mexican auto workers are just as efficient as workers in the U.S. The result is a shift in jobs to Mexico and the two tier wage system in the U.S. auto industry, now formalized in new UAW contracts with Ford, GM and Chrysler. The UAW agrees to hire entry workers at $14 and hour. A new VW Chattanooga plant pays $14.50 an hour. Rattner points to the need to create new jobs with high intellectual content in service industries such as education, digital media, entertainment, and financial services. This requires a greater committment to education.

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The Institute of Supply Management's Index of manufacturing activity declined to 49.7 for June from 53.5 in May. Figures below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing activity. The measure for new orders declined rapidly falling to 47.8 from 60.1. New export orders dropped to 47.5 from 53.5. This shows that the slowdown in China and Europe is now reaching the U.S. with slowing exports and new orders. At the same time auto sales are growing, with auto sales up 26% in May 2012. GM's auto sales were up 16% in June, Ford's 7%, Toyota 60% and Honda 49%. Auto sales were at an annualized pace of 14.1 million in June 2012, showing that this sector is holding up.

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A report by the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the best approach to tackle drug related violence in Mexico and new approaches to ensure public safety. The report says it may take ten years, or even a generation to reform Mexico's poorly trained, ineffective and in many cases corrupt police and courts. The new focus on police and courts and training comes as it is reported that only 2 percent of reported crimes in Mexico lead to convictions. Some reports point to middle class fears of taking cases to the police because of corruption. This report in the U.S. comes as a new president takes office in Mexico with a different approach to the drug war.

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The new government of prime minister Enrico Letta in Italy suspended the summer instalment of the tax on primary residences which was unpopular in Italy. The new government plans to overhaul the tax code this summer to change the way it impacts real estate. This was one of the tax measures taken by the Monti administration. 1 billion euros will go to a wage supplement program, so that companies can retain employees during the economic downturn. Another program to provide business incentives for hiring is being considered. The new government committed itself to bring down the deficit in Italy to under 3% in 2013, which would help keep Italian borrowing costs down.

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Obama is looking at alarge tax cut as part of the stimulus. A tax cut of about $300 billion for firms and individuals. With businesses getting inducements to forgo layoffs and make new hires, and to make new investments. There also provisions for companies to write off huge losses incurred in 20008 and 2009 and retroactively reduce tax bills dating back 5 years. It accelerates these writeoffs because of the tight credit situation facing business. A one year tax credit for companies to forgo layoffs or make new hires would be worth $40 or $50 billion. It also lets the companies write off a broad range of expenditures at ahigher level of $250,000 for 2008 and 2009.

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The two candidates on ways they would help the auto industry recover. Obam woul provide more federal dollars to help push R&D in the development of new fuel efficient technologies and make the R&D tax credit permanent. McCainwould offer more tax incentives and infrastructure support for developing new technologies for fuel efficient automobiles and expanding availability of alternative fuels.

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Fiat's 35% stake in Chrysler was obtained not for a cash investment, but mainly in exchange for covering the cost of retooling a Chrysler plant to produce one or more Fiat models to be sold in the US. Fiat would also provide engine and transmission technology to help Chrysler introduce new fuel efficient small cars. This purchase would see the Cerberus 80.1% stake in Chrysler diluted. It would not affect the 19.9% of Chrysler that is owned by Daimler. As part of the Fiat deal Chrysler is supposed to restructure the $9 billion in debt it has on its books. Cerberus may lose billions on the deal, but it faces an even bigger hit if it is forced into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection or it continues running Chrysler into an even deeper slump in auto sales in 2009. The Fiat deal is the only thing that Chrysler has to show that it should keep the government loan of $4 billion and get additional funds if needed to keep the company runnning. Chrysler did not show any new models at the North American Auto Show in Detroit recently and has practically ceased product development. For Cerberus this is the exit plan and ends any prospect of making the Chrysler deal work. Cerberus acquired Chrysler by mortgaging all of Chryslers plants and assets for a $12 billion loan from a group of banks, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. ...

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Matt Bai's interview with Mario Cuomo, former governor of New York. The conversation covers different topics: Mario Cuomo's speeches, the affinity and the dissonance with his son Andrew Cuomo's idea of liberalism and his own, about the kind of triangulation practiced by Clinton and Obama, and his sense of being a liberal in the old fashioned way. The talk goes to a speech Mario made about helping the poor without crushing the middle class and the sense today that the task ahead is about helping the middle class without crushing the poor. Mario mentions a conversation with Bill Clinton about an offer to join the Supreme Court. Mario said he told Clinton he would not be able to debate and talk freely about his views if he accepted that position. Considering Mario Cuomo's speeches this is sincere. He is torn between the struggles experienced by his father and others of the most ordinary working men and women of the period between the wars, the idea that there had to be a better way, and the difficulties of making that better way work in the real world in the postwar period. There is a sense that one has been forgotten or is now out of place- the dissonance with the times- when a serious contribution was made at one time and place that will always be there. One generation taking over from the last, adapting in its own way, the values timeless....

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Southwest Airlines CEO Kelly says studies have shown passengers just want to know if their flight is going to go and at what time. So he stresses these things, because travel is not perfect and its how his airline handles these situations that matters. He says its not a reach to say that Southwest is getting the 5% of revenues that is the max he thinks you can get from baggage fees, by simply not charging as passengers hate these fees. He wants to use new technology to manage fares better. Asked about things getting bette, green shoots of recovery, he isnt optimistic. He says Southwest has to be prepared for a lot of uncertainty and instability, and operate with an abundance of caution. He goes on to say what he sees as different in this downturn. Saying he wishes that steroids were legal, because the speed at which we identify issues , study them and make decisions is unlike anything he has experienced before. In Southwest's culture this is the difference between furloughing employees, grounding planes, and reducing flights and running as close to normal as possible. The cushion is gone now, and he has to manage risk much more carefully. This is good advice for other executives....

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Chile, Mexico and the U.S. rank high in the diabetes rate for top soda consuming countries. In the U.S. the diabetes rate is at 7.7% of the population, in Chile 9.6% and Mexico 9%. Soda consumption per capita was at 165 litres in the U.S., 146 litres in Mexico and 134 litres in Chile, and 145 litres in Argentina where the diabetes rate is at 3.9%, for 2012. A new public service ad in Mexico City subway stations says it all, showing an ad with a soda bottle and the words- "Would you take 12 teaspoonfuls of sugar? Soda is sweet, diabetes isn't." The new Pacto de Mexico agreed to by all major political parties includes the soaring diabetes rate in Mexico as a problem to be tackled, including lunches at public schools and the consumption of coke and sodas by children. A particular acute problem in Mexico is the lack of clean drinking water in many areas and the dependence on coke and sodas for liquids. But bottled water could be used in its place if available at lower prices. One proposal is for a soda tax which could generate $2 billion and be used for setting up clean drinking water fountains in schools and other places. Elected officals in Mexico are firm about the need for action, as Mexico recently became the first country over 100 million inhabitants with the highest obesity rates at 7 adults out of 10 over the age of 20 obese or overweight, and the consequently high diabetes rate. Diabetes is the No. 2 killer in Mexico, and a serious health danger. Coca Cola gets its second highest revenues from Mexico after Europe, and the situation has evolved after years of heavy coke advertising to the point where Coca Cola is taken at every meal by some Mexican families, and is a sign of prestige. The company's response is to fight the public service ads with ads showing people burning off 149 calories by walking. The country now faces a long and uphill fight. Russia is one of the countries which is also conducting a similiar fight against soda drinks. The Bloomberg Philanthropy is financing efforts against soda drinks in Mexico, as part of its campaign against smoking and sodas as health hazards, and this maybe Bloomberg's bigger contribution to society than his service to New York City. Developing middle income countries such as Mexico, Chile, India, China, Brazil, are the hardest hit by soaring diabetes. And the costs to their health systems in 10-20 years from uncontrolled obesity and diabetes will be enormous. The U.S. is a developed country with similiar high rates of obesity and diabetes, with soaring medical costs, and serious problems that strangely have not received the public awareness and efforts that one should expect. ...

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The National Assessment of Educational Progess (NAEP) test scores in the U.S. for K-12 show a lack of progress since 2013. Scores for math and reading dropped for 8th grade students, and scores for reading were stagnant while dropping in math for 4th grade students. The test scores reflect progress in rural, suburban, urban environments, for communities that are affluent, less affluent and poor, different ethnic backgrounds. The test started in 1990 is the only one measuring national progress. The new results of NAEP are on a scale of 0 to 500, and show that in 2015 64 percent of 4th graders and 66 percent of eighth graders were not reading proficient, 60 percent of 4th graders and 67 percent of 8th graders were not math proficient. Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, do much better in the tests than Mississippi and New Mexico. Experts say a state to state comparison should separate the non native English speaking students from native English speaking, especially in states like Texas. With about two thirds of students failing the math and reading proficiency levels, growing proportions of minority Hispanic students in many states, larger proportion of less affluent students, the tests show the challenges facing America's K-12 education even after the changes introduced by Education Secretary Duncan since 2008....