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In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia....

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Under the rules for the European currency and the European Union there is no mechanism or process of fines or other sanctions to promote compliance to debt and deficit rules. In the case of Greece, an examination of budget reports shows that Greece never met the deficit rule of 3% for any year except 2006 and it has never been within 30 percentage points of the debt ceiling. Greece's statistics are faulty and deficit figures are continually being revised upwards. Several times the figures were quadruple what was initially reported in late 2009, for instance the deficit figure was 3.7% of GDP, then revised to 13% of GDP, setting off the current crisis for the Euro and the European Union. In 2001 Greece failed to reflect $2.2 billon in military expenses. According to Eurostat, the EU statistics authority this was 10 times what was saved from the derivatives swap arranged by Goldman Sachs to trim Greece's deficit. That transaction trimmed the deficit by one tenth of a percentage point.

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A general strike is planned in Catalonia, Spain to protest police action preventing a referendum vote on independence called by Mr. Puigdemont, head of the state government. The government in Madrid sees the vote as illegal and could take away the regional government's powers under Article 155 of the Constitution. There are varying reports on how many people voted, with this BBC report saying that Mr. Puigdemont's estimate of 90% of people having voted is inaccurate. BBC News says turnout was relatively low at 42%, weakening Mr. Puigdemont's position. Talks are now taking place with Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist party and Albert Rivera of the centrist Ciudadanos party. Mr. Puigdemont now calls for talks with the Spanish government, and mediation by the EU. The European Commission calls this an "internal matter" for Spain, that should be tackled using the Constitution. Other regions of Spain including Galicia where prime minister Rajoy comes from also suffered under the Franco dictatorship following the Civil War, including his family so that Mr. Rajoy does not represent Madrid so much as the new aspirations of the different regions in Spain to try to write a new chapter in Spanish politics. That chapter shown in a book by Mr. Rajoy on Spain's future clearly shows respect for autonomous regions as the direction for Spain. In Valencia and Catalonia one finds the regional languages used and this is respected under the Constitution. Yet the period under General Franco rankles many in Spain, more so in Catalonia and the Basque region, when the regional language could not be used. As in Scotland smaller parties that were not in government for decades now enjoy more support. Yet it is not clear that all the people of these regions want to permanently break the links with Spain or England under separatist parties that have only recently come to power. This is why the European Union is reticent on this issue.  ...

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Spanish banks agreed to reforms and job cuts as a condition for a 37 billion euro loan from the eurozone bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism. The restructuring plan applies to Bankia, Novagalicia Banco, Catalunya Banc and Banco de Valencia, with the largest job cuts at Bankia bank. Bankia will have 6000 job cuts, 28% of the total employees, and cut branches by 39%. Banco de Valencia will be absorbed into Caixabank and receive 4.5 billion euros of the loan payment approved.

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ECB president Mario Draghi describes the problem of financial fragmentation in the EU, as each country's national supervisors ask their banks to withdraw their activities to within national boundaries. This ringfencing of liquidity positions means the interbank market is not functioning. Draghi says this financial fragmentation is within the mandate of the ECB to correct. He points to the risk of convertibility that has more and more to do with the premia being charged for Spain's and Italy's government bonds, not just the perception that the counter party can fail.-"To the extent that these premia have to do with factors inherent to my counterparty, they come into our mandate, they come within our remit." Draghi's effort to define the issues of financial fragmentation, and sovereign premia "hampering the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels," is critical because the ECB sees it important to act within its mandate. The final point he makes is a political one about the future of the euro: "When people talk about the fragility of the euro, and the increasing fragility of the euro, and perhaps the crisis of the euro, very often non-euro area member states or leaders underestimate the amount of political capital that's been invested in the euro. We view this, and we are not unbiased observers in Frankfurt. We think the euro is irreversible. And its not an empty word now, because it preceded saying exactly what actions we are making that would make it irreversible." On the progress made, the acceptance of one financial and banking supervisor by member countries of the EU is seen as part of the idea of shared sovereignty necessary to put meaningful supervision across national boundaries in place. And on the structural reforms and deficit controls needed to be put in place he sees "the pace has been set, and all the signals that we get are they don't stop reforming themselves."...

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An exceptional account by Melissa Eddy of how Germans are reacting to the German government's underinvestment in childcare centers. Germany's cabinet approved a bill that provides $190 monthly child care allowance for mothers who opt not to use day care centers provided by the government. This is supported by the Bavarian party, Christian Social Union, on the grounds that it gives an alternative to mothers to use private day care or nanny care. In practice many of the mothers using the allowance are expected to be lower paid workers who may decide not to work. The government has budgeted $500 million for the allowance for 2013. This is opposed by all opposition parties , and in a rare show of unity by business employer associations and unions, both say it "creates a false incentive to quit work." Axel Plunnecke of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says studies show low income families are among those who benefit most from early childhood education. About 100,000 lower qualified and lower paid workers could see this as attractive and quit working. The western part of Germany lacks enough child day care slots, so this is seen as not investing enough where its most needed, and Germany lags behind other countries like France in day care centers. The government is investing $15 million over five years to expand the number of child care centers. The goal is to have 750,000 child care slots by 2013, according to Ms. Kristina Schroeder, the family minister, herself a mother giving birth while in office. The measure was vigorously debated and controversial from the beginning because most many Germans see the $15 million years over 5 years as underinvestment in vital educational infrastructure. The $500 million is better invested in building modern day care facilities, they believe, especially because the children from lower income mothers not benefitting from daycare facilities will still need educational help, and German industry needs more women in the labor force to be competitive. Five years ago under reforms of parental support the 3 years of help to mothers was reduced to 1 year, resulting in an increase in the numbers of women working from 32% in 2002 to 40% by 2011, according to the Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth....

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The ECB's annual report for 2012 and the role the ECB under Mario Draghi played in the eurozone crisis in 2011-2012. The gains made in eurozone financial architecture, especially the agreement for the ECB as financial supervisor for European banks. The ECB sees itself as the supervisor for all European banks- the French position in the discussions in Brussels. The agreement of Dec. 12, 2012 only says banks with assets over 30 billion euros, or 20% of GDP of countries, or operations in two or more countries will come under supervision by the ECB.

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Large capital outflows from the eurozone to the U.S. and currencies of smaller nations as the U.S. dollar strengthens in 2015.

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The issue of high youth unemployment. The bulge in demographics and the emphasis on increasing the number of college graduates without increasing the jobs available, or providing apprenticeship type training and degrees in areas where jobs can be created, has created a major problem in the Middle East. High youth unemployment in the US, Spain and the UK also poses serious problems. Former primer Minister Giuliano Amato of Italy recently told Corriere della Serra: "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Older workers tend to hold onto their jobs as long as possible as retirement ages are being raised, and they have negotiated higher retirement pensions. In Spain the younger part time workers and immigrant workers are the first to be laid off and unemployment is highest in this group, which is also why the high unemployment has not attracted as much attention there. Younger workers will eventually have to support a higher proportion of these workers in retirement because of the demographics. The shift to higher parttime employment and employment at low wages has also created a class of workers who have no future, as their incomes are low, and are easily laid off. This shift has been taking place in the US, Europe and Japan over the last decade. Germany has fared better because of its long tradition of apprenticeship training, and employers working directly with young students at universities to provide on the job training. The financial crisis of 2008 in the US slowed down many industries and created a shift in industries creating jobs, the result was a larger mismatch of skills of job seekers and new jobs created. One way to address this is more on the job training and working directly with employers, and assistance to community colleges to fill education gaps. ...

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Imposing losses on senior bond holders is acceptable under EU law during a liquidation process, say experts. Having them take losses in a restructuring would require changes to European and national laws. The uncertainty this creates coud hurt Spain's larger banks such as Santander and BBVA, which have so far not been affected by the crisis. A new European banking supervisory authority could insist on losses for senior bond holders to reduce the amount needed from the EFSF or ESM rescue funds.

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Puerto Rico has issued $72 billion in debt, about 70% of its GDP, by offering tax breaks to wealthy investors. It is now faced with a declining population, a shrinking tax base and a large public sector. Puerto Rico's inability to pay its debt will affect hedge funds which hold its distressed debt. Mutual funds have reduced holdings of Puerto Rican debt as its debt was reduced to junk status. Commercial banks hold insignificant amount of Puerto Rican debt. Municipalities in the U.S. have improved their financial situation by cutting spending and increasing taxes in recent years, reducing any contagion effects. Only 13% of Greece's debt or about $47 billion is held by private banks. Over 80% of the debt is held by the European Central Bank, the European Financial Stability Facility, the IMF and European governments. The ECB's quantitative easing program will support countries such as Spain, Portugal, and Italy, and other countries during the now likely default of Greece in 2015. This will limit the contagion from Greece. China's debt situation and excessive rise in stock market and housing prices poses more risks because of the size of the Chinese economy, and through the effects on commodity exporting countries such as Canada, China and Australia, and the economy of Hong Kong. China has large reserves which it could use to bailout banks if the situation were to arise, and could cut interest rates. China's financial system is relatively closed reducing direct effects of contagion. Ip says outsiders have placed too much confidence in China's leaders to manage a crisis, and in the condition of the financial system, because it is opaque, lacks transparency, statistics are not reliable, and not enough is known about the true condition of the economy....