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The Moody's ratings downgrades of major American banks will increase the short term borrowing costs of these banks especially because they have large amounts of debt to roll over.

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According to First American CoreLogic, a real estate information company, 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes. That is they were under water because they owed more on their mortgages than the properties are worth. The proportion is 23% or one in four homeowners. Mark Fleming CoreLogic's chief economist points out that having negative equity lowers labor mobility and in that way makes it harder to sell the house to look for jobs elsewhere. This is happening in Michigan and other states and is a discouraging sign for improving the job numbers. In this way the poor prospects in housing, banking bad loans in commercial real estate with tight bank lending, and the already high 10.2% umnemployment rate intersect to make 2010 pose significant risks for the economy.

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The problems with a second phase of quantitative easing, go back to asking why the first phase hasn't worked to prevent the economy from sliding back. So far the Fed has engaged in buying $1.7 trillion in bonds in that first phase. This shows the limitations of this approach. A lot of money was injected into banks. And the banks have $1 trillion on their books that is not being used for lending. The reason being its hard to find borrowers, as borrowers are cautious and concerned about the economic future. The Quantitative Easing in this second phase is supported by the reasoning that deflation risks remain. But this raises another question, what level of quantitiative easing would work, and would such enormous levels itself cause bigger problems.

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Orlik reports that the link between China's GDP growth and lending has broken down as credit expansion is accompanied by slowing growth. Slowing credit growth and lowering GDP growth even further is the price China's ecnomic planners are willing to take to forge a new path of sustainable growth, increasing efficiency of investment and increasing domestic consumption. The ratio of China's credit outstanding to GDP has jumped to about 180% in 2012 from 123% in 2008. Rapid expansion of credit is one of the danger signals before a crisis according to the IMF. Turkey and China are facing danger signals according to this IMF danger indicator.

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David Wessel says there are three hypotheses about the slow recovery with growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2011, estimated growth of 1.4-1.5% for the second quarter. The first, is that this is transitory, with gas prices, Japan's tsunami disrupting supply chians, and Europe's poor handling of the financial crisis. This he scores as wishful thinking. The second, that the stimulus was too small, the need for a second stimulus, or the related hypothesis of the large uncertainty hanging over business, including the debt ceiling negotiations, deficit etc. This he scores as more convincing, but one is not sure different policies would have led to a different situation. The third hypothesis is that the underlying diagnosis of the economy itself was hopeful but flawed and wrong. Hope about the housing market- which has been proved wrong. The same for exports, or consumer spending. Wessel cites Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt's new book on the afterperiod of financial crises and asset bubbles, with data going back to many historical periods showing that the periods following crises are difficult having protracted periods of slow or marginal economic growth....

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The American Treasury Secretary who handled the 2008 financial crisis, Henry Paulson, gives the new US financial reform legislation an incomplete grade. His main concern is that the too-big-to fail risk in the US banking system continues, and without clear rules a lot depends on the regulators. He does not see higher capital requirements doing much to ease that problem, and sees another crisis in a few years as inevitable. Former SEC chief, Harvey Pitt, gives it an F for failure or an I for Incomplete. He sees it as a boon for lawyers, because it is not clearly written and leaves so many loopholes, to a degree that is simply astounding. He says it does nothing in the way of preventing another crisis. Does nothing for transparency, nothing for monitoring and action by regulators, all factors that led to the crisis of 2008. Nouriel Roubini gives it a C+, because it does little to fix the reasons why securitization failed and caused the crisis, and in this way will keep credit creation and expansion in a weak state. He sees this financial reform bill as a failed effort that is laying the ground for the next crisis, with little action in the "too-big-to-fail" area, a huge dilution of what former Fed Chairman paul Volcker had advocated in the Volcker rule, and no real impact on the risky trading of derivatives. Bill Gross of PIMCO gives his frank assessment in no uncertain terms. A D+ for this bill. It shows how lobbyists for the banks still control Congress he says. It would have been better to let Paul Volcker take charge completely, than to have the lobbyists dilute the critical reform proposals. Simon Johnson gives it the lowest passing grade at MIT, a B. The only large change he says, is the Kanjorski Amendment, which give federal regulators the authority to breakup the large banks. But he cautions that it may require another crisis for the regulators and Congress to "get it," and do what they should be doing....

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In remarks published in English on the Bundesbank website, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president and member of the ECB governing council said: "The ECB should be aware of its independence. This also requires it to respect, and not to overstep its own mandate." This is seen as a pushback by the Bundesbank to ECB president Draghi's comments on July 23, 2012, about doing all that is necessary to keep the eurozone together. Weidmann referring to the situation in France recollecting his days as a student in France in 1987, said there were "two different worldviews colliding." And that this situation prevailed in all political debates right up to the present day. He says about deflationary tendencies -"If these countries go through adjustment processes which result in decreases in wages and prices, then this constitutes one-off shifts in the wage and price structure and not deflation."

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To make custom loan modifications of the type that became necessary overnight on a large scale requires resources, investment in people and technology. On top of this a bank makes about $500 a year on a $200,000 mortgage loan, and if the loan is delinquent the bank may already have lost $2500, say experts, so there is little incentive to do much about custom loan modification. As a result, they used what a former J.P. Morgan executive called "Burger King kids." Or the banks outsourced the operation, some to law firms like David Stern, which in turn used outsourcing firms in Guam or the Philippines. The result is a largely chaotic process according to former mortgage officers of banks, and clerical staff that did not know what they were doing. Now atttorneys general in all 50 states have stated that they will investigate foreclosure practices of banks. It all started with the lone effort of Pine Tree Legal Assistance in Denmark, Maine, in succesfully challenging one of these improperly conducted foreclosures. See the NYT article on Pine Tree. In that case it was about a mother with two children who had her payment go up to $474 after loan modification, who is on food stamps after losing her job as an employment counselor....

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Fitch Ratings Agency says that 65-75% of homeowners getting home loan modifications under the Obama administration's Home Affordable Loan Modification Program (HAMP) will default in 12 months. This is because the median ratio of total debt payments to pretax income is about 64% according to a Treasury Department estimate. Many of these homeowners have large credit card and other debt, and little is left for food, clothing and other expenses. By April 2010, 295,000 homeowners had taken loan modifications under HAMP, which provides interest rates of as low as 2%. And another 637,000 homeowners are in trial modifications, which require that homeowners show they can make the lower payments consistently and provide documets to show eligibility. The Obama administration has provided $50 billion for the HAMP program, with financial incentives to loan servicers and mortgage investors to modify loans. Critics say the program would have worked better if the government and HAMP dealt directly with homeowners- as homeowners complain about the long time, upto a year, it takes for loan servicers and mortgage companies to get the loan modified on a long-term basis....

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U.S. GDP growth is 1.5% for the second quarter after 2% growth in the first quarter. The slower growth shows that much of the productive capacity of the U.S. economy is not being utilized. See the graph showing the growth during the recovery after the recession of 2009 compared to the recessions in 2001, 1991, 1980, 1975, 1970. The curve is much flatter this time. Every recovery except the recovery in 1980 shows a faster rebound. Economic recoveries have taken longer over time since the postwar boom period.

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The London based think tank Open Europe says the exposure from Greece puts the ECB's balance sheet at risk. A small 4.25% drop in the value of the ECB's asset holdings could wipe out the whole capital base of the ECB, according to Open Europe. The ECB holds at present 75 billion euros of Portuguese, Greek and Irish bonds on its balance sheet. In the last 12 months the ECB has increased its capital base to 10 billion euros. The decision to buy Spanish and Italian bonds increases the risk. The ECB loses money if the borrowing bank goes bankrupt or the collateral of the borrowing bank loses value. During the negotiations for the eurozone debt deal in July 2011, the ECB obtained guarantees from eurozone governments for the collateral it holds from Greece. This increases the need for the European Financial Stability Facility to take on the role of buying bonds of troubled eurozone countries.

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It is a reminder of far household debt went up in 10 years. Household debt was only 66% of GDP in 1998, Today it is 96% of GDP, and it is 130% of disposable income. For it to go back to the level only 10 years ago, it would have to drop 30%.

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In the current situation where the "too big to fail" problem for banks has only worsened since the crisis with the remaining banks even larger after mergers, and no dividing wall between speculative trading in securities and the utility banking of collecting deposits and making loans, the country depends on regulators to do the job of supervision. Regulatory reforms have faced resistance from the banking industry and the reforms have been watered down in Congress. It is in this environment that Patrick Parkinson takes on the job of head of bank supervision at the Federal Reserve. He will work with Daniel Tarullo, the Fed governor who heads the committee of governors overseeing bank supervision. But he is also one of the old faces at the Fed when the Fed failed in its role of bank supervision. From 1993 to 1998 he was the top staff advisor to the Fed chairman, for matters considered by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.

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New Yok has a mandatory foreclosure mediation program, with a 3rd party mediator working with the homeowner and the bank to achieve a loan modification. Of the 42,256 mortgages in New York approaching foreclosure since Jan 1, 2010, 75% went into the mediation process. Of this 80% achieved permanent modifications. In Connecticut 70% of 29,000 mortgages went into mediation with over 60% achieving permanent modifications for the same period. Where the mediation was optional as in New Jersey, only 20% of 50,713 mortgages went into mediation. In Nevada, another optional state, only 11% of 62,593 mortgages went into mediation. Mediation rates rocket when it is mandatory. One expert says that this is because mandatory mediation brings accountability and humanizes the process. By reducing the interest rate and making for lower payments the borrower stays in the home, and the bank continues to get its lower but consistent income stream compared to a default in payments. Today 20 states offer some form of mediation but only 2 states and 2 cities make it mandatory. This is happening in the disturbing context of a decline in troubled homeowners receiving assistance or modifications. About 470,000 homeowners received loan assistance in the 3rd quarter, down 17% from the second quarter, and down 32% from the same quarter a year earlier. The paradox is that one way to stimulate the economy that is not being tried is to mitigate losses in the housing market for homeowners and lenders. Spain's financial sector is doing modifications routinely and this is one way it is softening the impact of losses from the housing market. See Spain and residential mortgages....

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Municipal yields are back up. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says states in the USA will have to close budget gaps of $140 billion in fiscal year 2012, ending in June, down from $160 billion this year. But real shortfalls will increase because federal stimulus funds that helped state and local governments will fall from $59 billion this year to $6 billion next year. Local governments depend on states for one third of their revenue, according to a Congressional Budget Office report, which makes them vulnerable. Property taxes account for a quarter of local government revenue and this too will be declining with declining assessed values. The Federal Reserve Act limits open-market purchases of munis to ones with maturities of less than 6 months, which reduces the scope for help from the Fed.

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Shiller, Kashyap, Mishkin, Slaughter, Stein, Stulz, Rajan and others are part of a 15 academic economists group called the Squam Lake Group. They first met at a conference in November 2008 at Squam Lake in New Hampshire. The group has come up with a report that they hope gets the prominence of the 9/11 report. It is called the Squam Lake Report. The book will be introduced in a conference at Columbia University by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. Some of the economists have little faith in regulators and a new Financial Stability oversight Council led by Treasury Secretary Geithner. (Stulz, Kashyap). The group sees need for better disclosure of risks of financial products, especially retirement savings products.The editor Seth Itchik sees the book as today's version of the 1938 book by Harvard and Tufts economists called "An Economic Program for American Democracy." The motivation for this effort in a field where economists have different opinions, is to build a consensus for decisive action by Congress and the government of the U.S. Two new suggestions that are not in the Congressional bills for financial reform. One is issuance of contingent convertible bonds or CoCo bonds. Banks would be encouraged or required to issue such debt which would convert into equity in a crisis. These funds would help recapitalize a bank in a crisis with no taxpayer liability. Another new proposal is to have a fraction of each year's bonus pool for banking executives to be held separately- if the bank ran into trouble, that portion of pay would be withheld from senior managers. And the group sees political aspects and lobbying making sound plans less implementable in Congress. Congress lets regulators curb pay practices and coordinate other actions which has not worked in the past and during the crisis. Congress has even in its best effort acted on only some of the things needed in its bills- this includes higher capital requirements, and compulsory "living wills" for the largest financial institutions, and the Volcker Rule. The rules for derivatives are still being negotiated by Blance Lincoln who introduced this provision, with the result being more transparency. If it is watered down it would not ensure the strict separation of derivatives trading on the capital accounts of banks that Blanche Lincoln envisaged. ...