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The gradual fading of China's demographic dividend. This is the reason some analysts believe India's growth rate will surpass China's by 2013 to 2015. The World Bank reflects this in its growth rate estimates for China, which slow from 8.7% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2015, and 6.7% in 2020. One reason for this is that India's age dependency ratio, which reflects how many wage earners support older people, is rising, and China's is declining- with experts expecting that trend to continue till 2040.

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Kristof of the NYT recalls how his own father was a refugee from Eastern Europe, swam the Danube river to safety, and was given refuge by a family in Oregon. He points to the failure of world leadership in both Washington, Moscow and Arab capitals leading to the conflict in which about half of the Syrian people are dislocated by civil war.

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John T. Chambers has some very useful guidance on questions to ask and what to look for in hiring. Fairly simple but a lot of attention needed to get the right answers and make sure the hiring is done right. Here he talks to NYT's Adam Bryant. How did Chambers respond to dyslexia as a child? See it as a curve ball said a teacher,once you see it and observe that it comes a certain way, then you can handle it. He reads right to left. And he learned about near death experiences with Cisco in 2001. And he learnt from Jack Welch why they are very powerful and useful. He learnt from his parent, an obstetrician, that you are best being calm when there is an accident happening and people are not. People express emotions at such times and this says little about what's really going on, said his dad. Chambers admits his virtue and fault about being a command and control person, possibly from his early training at IBM. But he is open to changing when pushed, he says. He says his wife of 35 years keeps him from becoming too self-conscious. Questions he asks new people interviewed about joining the company. Tell me about your results. Tell me about your mistakes and failures. All of us have mistakes and failures, he says, so someone who says "I can't think of one, immediately loses credibility." The ability to be candid about mistakes made, and what they would do differently this time, helps make people learners and adapters as they go into different things. He says that he learns more from these two questions than from anything else. He also asks who are the best people you recruited and developed, and where are they today. He does this one gently , which is to figure out if they are oriented towards the customer or merely see the customer as someone who gets in the way. And then he looks for communications skills, and the key part of that is listening. He likes to see how they listen, how they interpret, and are they willing to challenge you. And then he looks for their knowledge in the industry segments, and the areas he is interested in. And that kind of covers the things he has looked for in the last 20 years. For today's world he looks especially for collaboration skills, teamwork skills, and their use of technology to share information, collaborate and work as a team. As its not immediately clear whether someone who says he is a team player is actually a team player, he checks with other people who know the person. Chambers grew up in a individualist world. So he is candid about this. He says that when he was trained it was about me and winning as an individual. The future, he adds, is about how do groups think and work together collaboratively. And how can one add discipline to that through practice and capability, and being able to use the necessary technologies. ...

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The Nation is faced with another Supreme Court decision as in 1868 for the 14th Amendment, in 2025 on birthright citizenship.  The 14th Amendment was written in the 19th century it had no concept of the 20th century and absolutely no idea of the 21st century we live in, unable to even conceive of conditions today, or even think of  setting rules for immigration today. It rejected the Dredd Scott decision of 1857 denying black people rights as citizens, restating the law of the land, had nothing at all to do with stating the opinion of the Judiciary on whether a mother flying in from Asia could secure US citizenship for a new born child by merely visiting the US. As in 1857, in 2025 the law is based on assumed historical facts as Lincoln said on Dredd Scott decision, that are not really true. Lincoln said in 1857- "That burlesque upon judicial decisions, and slander and profanation upon the honored names, and sacred history of republican America must be overruled, and expunged from the books of authority." The 14th Amendment was written to give black people the rights of citizens of the US, in a complete repudiation of the Dred Scott decision of the US Supreme Court of 1857 that deprived black people of rights as citizens because Judge Tanney said the British Empire had set up the institution of slavery in the American colonies and the British were responsible for the institution, little we can do about it. When by 1807 slavery was being banned in Britain and in 1838 totally banned in the British Empire. It created the idea that Americans were not the master of their destinies after the departure of the British to choose which institutions they would keep and which they would reject including slavery. Abraham Lincoln citing President Andrew Jackson said each the executive, the judiciary, Congress, and the common man were entitled to their own view of the US Constitution as they understood it. Lincoln also said Judge Tanney's decision in Dred Scott case was based on assumed historical facts that were not really true- Judge Tanney making no mention of the fact that in 1857 the British Empire had already abolished the institution for 50 years. The DJT Executive Order banning birthright citizenship shown here on the White House site has the title- Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship. It is written in  simple language in 1 page -Purpose, Policy, Enforcement and Definitions, Provisions.  The purpose clearly states that the Dred Scott decision of the US Supreme Court in 1857 is what the framers of the 14th Amendment had in mind when they drafted the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution. A reading of the 14th Amendment makes this abundantly clear. The wording comes out at the outset reversing the Dredd Scott Decision of 1857. It's repudiation was why the Northern and Southern States fought the Civil War. The National Archives say that with Dred Scott decision to allow the spread of slavery to American territories in the West,  America moved one step closer to civil war. With such  momentous events in the history of the US 1857-1868 the framers of the 14th Amendment were not sitting down to write rules about what was right for America a century and a half later.    ...

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Kristof of the NYT says the narrative about Hillary Clinton being dishonest is clearly overdone and inaccurate. He says the gaffes about the use of personal email server have unfairly created a distorted narrative. On changing positions on trade and minimum wage- this happens frequently with all the candidates. Some are glib enough for not being noticed, Clinton not a natural politician drawing attention. On Libya, and on Syria, Clinton is blamed for the President's errors and not given credit for pushback in league with Panetta, Gen. Kean and Gen. Jones, that has influenced changes made in 2016, and the president accepting blame for errors. In this instance Clinton has been far from shifty by publicly allying herself with Leon Panetta's position in "Worthy Fights," and Gen. Jones's remarks. Far from having erred on Libya and Syria policy, Hillary Clinton, like Chuck Hagel and others in the administration including Joe Biden, showed exceptional patience in dealing with the president, national security advisor, and McDonough in policy matters- when they were right but the country was weary of what were seen as futile global engagements in remote areas setting too high a bar for any action. Clinton rightly described this as a pendulum swinging too far in the opposite direction after the Bush/Cheney years. On young women and being "progressive" Hillary Clinton is from a older generation that experienced the kind of discrimination that young women fail to grasp, according to a recent analysis of University of Massachusetts polling survey results cited in the Washingon Post. A PolitiFact Pulitzer winning fact checking site shows 50% of the Clinton statments are either true or mostly true, compared to 49% for Bernie Sanders, 9 percent for Trump, 22% for Ted Cruz, and 52% for John Kasich. ...

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Santorum's loss by a large margin of the U.S. Senate election in 2006 raises doubts about his electability.

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Germany's social-affairs minister, Ursula von der Leyden, presents the "fourth poverty and wealth report," in March 2013. The issue of inequality is arousing public sentiment in Germany with this becoming an election issue along with the euro crisis and energy reform. The term Gerechtigkeit means "justice" in German and is associated with the idea of equality. The Social Democrats Party and the Greens talk about this in terms of "social scissors" opening wider. The Minder Initiative which passed in Switzerland enabling shareholders to restrict executive pay has led to public discussion in Germany for a similiar approach to be adopted by Germany. The ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU) of Angela Merkel and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) party are different from other parties in Europe because of their Catholic and Lutheran roots which favor social solidarity. The FDP party in the ruling coalition supports free market principles but lacks popular support. The Economist cites the work of the German think tank DIW on inequality, which shows inequality showing sharp rise after German reunification around 1991, especially in East Germany. The situation moderates with improvements in inequality in East Germany and a slight improvement in West Germany after 2005. Both East and W. Germany have moved up overall in the Ginni coefficeint which measures inequality from about 0.4 in 1991 to about 0.5 in 2010, showing that the situation has stabilized at a higher level of inequality. Part of this could be because of the shift to temporary workers at lower wages about this time as German industry made efforts to keep wages down and improve competitiveness, even as overall conditions in the economy improved in the last decade. The Economist cites another study by the Initiative for a New Social Market Economy, a German think tank, which compares Germany with other members of the OECD. Germany ranks closer to Scandinavian countries in seventh place in this study, but does poorly in equal oportunities with 14th place. Germany lags behind other OECD and European countries in opportunities for women to work full time. Germany lacks enough daycare facilities for small children so that their mothers can work full time. There is a shortage of about 150,000 for preschool daycare openings in Germany, acccording to information cited by Deutsche Welle from government sources....

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Samuelson points to the risks to the American economic growth from excessive health care costs. This is hurting take home pay and shows up in consumer spending. It is hurting government spending in other areas such as needed infrastructure spending and efforts to reduce the deficit. This hurts private capital investment to create jobs because of lower demand from constricted consumer spending. The U.S. budget has as its largest single expense 27% on health care compared to 20% on defense the next largest expense, with growth in health care spending taking this to one third of the budget in coming years. Without addressing health care, says Samuelson, the Supercommitte in Congress even if successful at deficit reduction will basically have failed to do its job, and it did not have the time, resources or conviction to do this. According to a new study from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), U.S. healthcare spending per person is $7,960 per person in 2009. This compares with Norway $5,352, Britain $3,487, France $3, 978, an OECD average of $3,233. Life expectancy in the U.S. is 78.2 years, compared to Japan 83 years, OECD average of 79.5 years. Chile and the Czech Republic have life expectancy equal to the U.S. Except for cancer care where the five year survival rate is 89.3% in the U.S. and the OECD average is 83.5%, the U.S. lags far behind in much needed critical areas such as diabetes and asthma. Rates of emergency hospitalization for asthma are 3 times that in France and 6 times that in Germany and Italy. The U.S. has fewer doctors per thousand population and higher cost per medical procedure- with more frequent use of the costliest procedures- creating a supply shortage that induces higher prices, and less preventive and early action care through physician visits. The number of practicing U.S. doctors is 2.4 per thousand population in the U.S. compared to 3.1 per thousand for the OECD average; and number of annual doctor consultations 3.9 per capita in the U.S. versus 6.5 for the OECD average. Appendectomy cost $7,962 in the U.S., $5,004 in Canada and $2,943 in Germany. Coronary angioplasty cost $14,378 in the U.S., compared to $9,296 in Sweden, and $7,027 in France. Knee replacement cost $14,946 in the U.S., $12,424 in France, and $9,910 in Canada. Knee replacements, angioplasties and MRI exams are twice as common in the U.S. compared to the OECD countries. ...

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Jose de Cordoba of the WSJ provides this excellent story on the nature of the migration crisis in the U.S. that is creating political divisions in the U.S. What is causing this surge in migration to the U.S.? Cordoba provides some useful insights to understand the nature of this problem. Nine out of ten migrants in Guatemala which sends most of the migrants from Central America are moving north from Guatemala through Mexico to the U.S. for financial reasons, it points out. Only 10% are because of violence in the region, the rest for financial reasons according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration The jump in apprehension of Guatemalans at the American border shows a surge from 15,000 in 2007 to 236,000 in 9 months of 2019, according to U.S. government data. The surge began in 2008 and jumped in 2014 after U.S. court rulings that first required migrant children to be allowed to join relatives in the U.S. followed by a ruling in 2015 that allowed a parent to join the children and allowed court proceedings to take place that takes years. The result was that smugglers advertised on radio and families sold small plots of land to join relatives in the U.S. who had gone before them. The migration is also specific to certain areas hit by damage to crops, including coffee crop from drought, or certain towns that simply sent more people simply for financial reasons advertised openly.  For 8 hours of work a migrant could make at $12 per hour amount of $96 per day, in Guatemala the daily wage would be about $5.  Overwhelmingly it is financial reasons or economic opportunity that sends migrants north. After it became known that kids could help migration the people in family groups apprehended at the border jumped from about 40,000 in 2015 to 390,000 in fiscal 2019. Smugglers charge $8600 per adult and half that for a child and an adult that can be dropped off at a checkpoint. The efforts of president Trump to close the border to this migration include having Mexico sign an agreement to police its southern border with Guatemala using its newly setup National Guard. As a result the migration has actually surged in 2019 with migrants seeing this as their one last opportunity to join relatives in the U.S. or to migrate to the U.S. The Trump administration tried separating families because of the loophole in the law that allows children to be not deported and parents to join their children. But this created a public outcry and the effort now is to close the loophole in the law. It is also strange that as many migrants are coming from one town Joyabaj  with population 100,000 as from Guatemala City the capital population 2.5 million. In fact the economy has grown by 3.4 % a year in Guatemala and efforts have been made to improve conditions with the help of donor countries in the West for several years, though the drought conditions exist. The situation is similar to that in Europe. If one looks at the violence by gangs in central American region after the end of the guerilla wars and compares it to the wars in Syria and Iraq, one can see how humanitarian concerns preceded what eventually turned out tobe a full blown migration for economic reasons. Initially chancellor Merkel adopted a humanitarian stance but failed to recognize that there was another side to his situation that would attract a wave of economic migrants from places as far apart as North Africa to Afghanistan. Poverty has existed in these regions for many many years before the current migration, with drought and lack of economic opportunity going far back in time. Merkel only recently recognized this problem and the new CDU leader Kambrauer has clearly recognized this. CDU policy shifted in 2018-2019 with curbs on economic migration that has reduced it to a trickle. This process is underway in the U.S. at its border with Mexico and for Mexico with its border with Guatemala. In the short run Europe and the U.S. are paying a price. Not just in the way it has divided each country with a far left and a far right eroding the centrist parties that existed before. In some cases centrist parties that were popular on the right and the left now hve leaders from a far right or a far left faction within the centrist ruling parties. Boris Johnson in Britain, Trump in the U.S., leaders in Italy, Austria and Hungary. Or as in Germany and Spain new far left or far right parties causing the centrist parties to dwindle in influence or as in Germany this combined with a shift to the Green Party in Germany and Liberals Party in Britain as a show of disapproval for how the migration issue has been tackled.  The Economist in a July 2019 issue also points out that the country's own citizens have fared worse with migration. It shows how the Conservative Party's austerity cuts for welfare budgets was popular in Britain as long as eastern European migration at high levels in Britain were allowed starting with the Labour party under Blair. This disproportionately hurt the middle class and the poor after the hit already taken from the faulty banking caused recession. With the drop in migration it is now felt by a majority in Britain that the austerity cuts have just gone too far and a mood is set in to restore many of the cuts and fund public services. Meantime some of the damage has been done and will take a decade to correct as the issues that mangled the centrist parties and led to fragmentation on views of what society should look like have taken place with Brexit and high levels of poverty, income inequality in Britain, lack of investment in infrastructure with overallocation to tech with declining productive benefit for every additional dollar spent. ...

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This Journal editorial says Romney is cautious and conservative in his politics, and finds his ideas for a value added tax problematic. It sees the need for Ron Paul's supporters in a successful Republican campaign in 2012 and critical for governing in 2013, because of Paul's genuine desire for change to the status quo. Of Santorum the Journal says there is need to broaden the economic message beyond reducing taxes for manufacturing companies, and going beyond the moral fervor to show how he would revive the U.S. economy and jobs growth.

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Arne Duncan describes the improvements in K-12 education in two regions of the U.S.- the District of Columbia and Tennessee between 2011 and 2013, shown by the 2013 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The hard work of educators, parents and school officials is paying off and offers examples for other parts of the country, says Duncan. Lessons include facing the facts, not dumbing down by setting low standards. With higher standards Tennessee students were only 34% proficient in math and 45% in reading compared to the 91-92% with lower standards. Republicans followed up on the work of Democrats in the state. Soliciting feedback from critics and experts- the feedback was used to improve systems and learning to help teachers and students. Schools chancellor Kaya Henderson says improving teacher quality was critical, and so was academic rigor. Still Duncan says more needs to be done, this only shows the right direction for states lagging behind, and one should not get complacent. The other areas college enrollment and dropout rates need to be followed carefully. International PISA results still show the U.S. at 27th in math and 14th in reading of 65 countries- making this only the beginning in setting the future course for U.S. educational improvements....

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The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact led by Japan and the U.S. moves to the next stage with legislation introduced by Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden in the U.S. Congress for granting trade promotion authority to the U.S. president. This would facilitate the negotiation of an agreement leading to concessions by different countries. Talks between Japan and the U.S. intensified with the U.S. president Obama saying in his 2015 State of the Union message that China wanted to write the rules for trade in Asia, and asking why the U.S. should not work to write its own rules. Defense Secretary, Aston Carter, called it more important than another aircraft carrier. Support from Europe, India and other countries for the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a rival to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, also give urgency to the TPP. The TPP countries, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Peru and Chile, make up over $400 billion of about $4 trillion in U.S. trade, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The TPP is now seen not just a free trade pact, but also as away to counter China's influence in Asia. Experts see the Obama administration as having bungled its handling of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which the U.S. did not join, and its allies in Europe, other Asian countries including India, decided to join as founding members. Democrats in Congress led by Senator Schumer, Warren, oppose the legislation granting fast track for free trade pacts citing the loss of jobs and lowering of wages for workers in manufacturing in the U.S., with only about a dozen Democrats favoring the legislation, leading to a split in the party. Projections by Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, Fan Zhai, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, show a net negative impact on depressed wage sectors such as U.S. manufacturing with additional $45 billion in U.S. imports and $35 billion in exports for heavy manufacturing from the TPP free trade pact, and additional $33 billion of U.S. imports and $10 billion exports in light manufacturing by 2025. Higher wage sectors such as U.S. Services including IT get a boost with additional $42 billion in exports and $ 8 billion imports. Agriculture shows insignificant gains with additional exports of $2 billion and imports of 0.5 billion. The auto and transport sector disproportionately favors Japan with $33 billion in additional U.S. imports and $8 billion in exports. ...

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Not a very flattering picture of the chancellor. She has already lost 1.3 million CDU voters to the Greens, and about 260,000 to the far right AfD party. In all about 4.3 million CDU voters have shifted from Merkel's CDU to other parties on the right or the left and to the Greens, between the general elections of 2017 and the European elections in 2019, according to Infratest Dimap. It had 33% of the vote in 2017, now it polls at 27%, down 6 points. The Greens come next at 22%, in recent Politico poll. Merkel's sentiments may have overtaken the reality of how much Germans wanted to integrate war and economic refugees from Africa and Asia. She has since revised her judgement that it was a decision made at the time based on what happened at that time without enough time to prepare for the sudden influx of refugees from Budapest. A new party the Alternative for Germany AfD emerged from the migrant crisis in the eastern part of Germany that had 13% of the votes in 2016, building on discontent from reunification, depopulation of the east, and a sense of drift and neglect. Even a sense that the affluent western part of Germany was more concerned about refugees than its own economically insecure countrymen in the east. After being in power since 2005 Merkel's period shows signs of aging. Her record on investment infrastructure and health, education and child care is also found to be weak. The effort to maintain austerity for so long following the financial crisis of 2008 by profligate banking and bad accounting by member states in the EU including Ireland, Spain and Greece, has hurt parts of the middle and working class stuck with low wages and inequality in the EU and in Germany. The migrant crisis and refugees have split her party and German opinion adding to the problems of the economy in the EU and Germany.  ...

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The shift of offshore manufacturing jobs from China to Mexico in 2014-2015.

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Street protests in Brazilian cities with economic growth slowing to about 1% in 2012 and inflation at about 6%. Street protests in Brazil reflect public disconten over corruption, overspending on the World Cup and Olympics, and lack of good education, health and other public services. Increase in bus fare and police response against small protests using tear gas set off the large scale protests of tens of thousands in Brazilian cities. President Rousseff's sees her popularity ratings drop 8% percentage points from the March level to 57% in June 2013, according to polling firm Datafolha. Ths includes high popularity in poor northern states. Rousseff's popularity in more industrialized southern states declined by 13%, and by 16% among college educated youth.

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The Journal says Santorum needs to fit his economic point about helping manufacturing into a broader economic policy, and broaden his support base beyond the social conservative base. It says about Romney that he needs to find an authentic message that appeals to conservatives beyond catchphrases about repealing Obamacare. The problem it says is both candidates do not appeal to the whole Republican party. One candidate Romney lacks the fervor and firm convictions and the other Santorum has fervor and firm convictions about social issues, but can't do the same for economic issues and the other concerns of Republican voters.