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Argentina president Mauricio Macri wins 40% of the vote, losing to the Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez with 48% of the vote. The Peronists, a socialist party, also won in Buenos Aires province elections for governor.. The shift from centre right to the socialist party occurs as the country is in deep financial crisis with about 50% inflation. The Argentine currency, the peso falling in a few years since 2015 from 10 to the dollar to 60 to the dollar, leading to high inflation and hurting Argentines with rapidly falling purchasing power of income. Argentines rejected austerity policies of Macri and the free market policies pursued under Macri failed. This was aggravated with lack of prudent management of finances and overborrowing using dollar denominated bonds reaching $115 billion in bonds debt by 2019. Me. Macri inherited a budget deficit from Ms. Kirchner in 2015. The economy was overly dependent on a temporary boom in commodity prices for soyabeans as a result of demand from China. A weather related crisis led to a decline in agricultural exports in 2017-2018. Yet the budget deficit was allowed to grow and the foreign debt was financed with foreign currency denominated bonds to the point where Argentina could now default on $115 billion in foreign currency denominated  bonds. Overly dependent on uncertain foreign interest in Argentine bonds, Argentine agricultural commodities exports at high prices, uncertain foreign investment, hurt Argentina. Drought conditions in 2018 hurt export revenues. This required very prudent and careful management of finances which Mr. Macri failed to provide. Turning to the IMF for a $57 billion loan in May 2018, in just 3 years of his administration, and after Argentina took years following the crisis of 2003 to settle foreign debts, showed a failure and mismanagement of huge proportions. ...

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Sharp drop in oil prices in Dec. 2015.

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Hillary Clinton attacks Trump's policies in an address in Warren, Michigan, saying this was another version of failed trickle down economics. She called Trump's idea of taxing pass through entities such as small business reporting business income on individual tax returns at 15%, as a "Trump loophole." On trade policy Hillary Clinton said she would oppose the TPP or Trans- Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement that president Obama has supported. She put it flatly- " I oppose it now. I'll oppose it after the election, and I'll oppose it as president." And pointed out that too many companies have moved jobs overseas and "moved operations overseas and sold back into the U.S." after pushing for trade deals. The answer she said 'is not to rant and rave- or to cut us off from the world," in reference to protectionist policies Trump has supported. 

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See the important link to Keith Johnson, 7/9/2007, WSJ, on the economics of wind energy, suppliers, and the industry in the US and Europe, and the shortage of turbines because of some 800 parts that go into the turbines and blades making it a complicated supplier issue to get more turbines. We can make only more turbines as fast as we can access the last of some 8000 components says a Vestas executive. Windmill generated electricity was only 0.4% of the electricity generated in the US compared to 0.1% for solar and 0.4% for geothermal but of the new energy added in the US in 2007 it was 30% of the new energy generating capacity added. So it has a disproportionate share of the increase in generating capacity starting from an insignificant base. Its a new industry but with many companies the largest being Vestas of Denmark, GE Energy, Nordex of Germany and Accoiona of Spain. Germany, the US, Spain India, and China are countries at the forefron of the wind energy business. Because the business is relatively new manufacturers were not providing the installation and maintenance required in emerging market countries in 1995 when Suzlon which had powered its yarn business in Surat, Gujarat with 2 wind energy turbines from Vestas entered the business seeing an opportunity. Mr Tanti of Rajkot, Gujarat, Suzlon's founder saw the opportunity and used European firms to design his turbines and blades and provided energy to Bajaj Auto and large Indian companies that have an erratic supply of electricity because of chronic electricity shortages. Starting with a tax break which allowed Suzlon to deduct windmill costs against its sales tax bill enacted in 1999 and retracted in 2002 Suzlon took advantage of lower manufacturing costs in India. Its main plant is in Pondicherry, India. By 2002 sales had increased to $131 million in India from $32 million in 2000. The company entered the US market in 2003 and in 2004 with the boomin stock market in India Citigroup took a 9% stake in Suzlon for $22 million. By 2005 Suzlon because of lower manufacturing costs had margns of20% compared to 8% for European companies and Suzlon raised $340 million in an IPO. With loans from Barclays and Deutsche Bank Suzlon bought European parts makers Hansen Transmission in 2006 and set up a factory in Tianjin, India. Early on in the 1990's it had set up an R&D center using engineers in Germany of a supplier company in wind energy Sudwind that had exited the business, this R&D center now designed its largest turbine for US and European markets of 2.1 megawatts and blades 50 yards in length. Today Tanti and Suzlon are faced with problems accessing the world class technology of the western companies as its technology has not kept up with the technological advances especially in addressing the needs of western markets. It has about 8% of the US market and about $1.8 billion in global sales. Its pricing to Edison Energy in 2006 for 1.2 megawatt turbines was 20% below European and American manufacturers. Its latest designs have flaws because Edison Energy of Irvine , California, has seen cracks in the blades at 3 windmill sites in the midwest USA and Suzlon has withdrawn 1251 blades, the majority of the ones sold in the US. Deere and Company another customer has experienced the same problem. And even though it has moved to acquire technology by taking over 33.6% of REpower which has advanced technology and makes 5 megawatt turbines. its mired in its efforts to get the blueprints of advanced designs from REpower because German law considers minority shareholders like Suzlon as competitors, other shareholders Areva of France and Martifer of Portugal have to be bought out and minority shareholders also bought out before Suzlon can access the designs. Speed, funding, tax breaks, and timing to attract capital, and most of all insight and courage to see a growing opportunity from its own experience of using two 2.1 megawatt turbines from Denmark's Vestas, and looking deeper into problems with maintenance and support in Asia and lack of technology for homegrown development that hamstrung development of energy alternatives in dire and chronic electricity short Indian companies, this has helped bring windpower to India and a new company in a new industry from scratch. ...

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How inflation is affecting people who thought themselves to be in the middle class like postal workers and teachers and public sector emplyees. Wages are stagnant in many parts of the European economy as inflation picks up and the price of basic necessities like bread and fueling the family car cost more as the year progresses. A study by the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin finds that the broad middle of the German workforce defined as workers earning 70 to 150% of the median income shrunk to 54% of the population in 2007 from 62% in 2000. Something is clearly going on with wages not keeping up with inflation and it does not look good just as a global slowdown that started in the USA is affecting the rest of the world. In Britain striking teachers closed schools as proposed wage raises of 2.5% were not enough to meet the rising cost of living, with food up 7% and oil up 20% since this time last year. German workers have already staged a series of strikes for a greater share in the increased wealth after years of making concessions and the mood in Germany is that a lot of the senior business people are making too much at the expense of workers who are being asked to sacrifice too much....

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The Congressional Budget Office report in 2011 shows after tax resource flow that a family has to pay for consumption, a better approach to measuring the growth in incomes since 1970 including government help to lower income people and gains in the stock market for upper class Americans. This report shows after tax resource flow for the top 1% in the U.S. tripled from 1970 to 2011. For the middle fifth of the distribution families experienced real net income gains of 36 percent, and the bottom fifth of the distribution real net income gain of 50 percent.This suggests gains of about 10 percent a year if averaged over 30 years for the top 1 percent compared to 1% a year for the middle fifth and 1.5% for the bottom fifth. The report was done in 2011 and this could skew the results. Between 2011 and 2015 the stock market recovered and this would suggest a much higher gain for the top 1% of incomes and the top 10%, while also providing improvement in incomes for the middle fifth and the bottom fifth as unemployment decreased. Working class and minimum wage slowly recovered, and interest income on savings extremely low, with large student and other household debt, so that even at 10-12% gains per year for the top 1%, and 1-2% for the middle fifth of the distribution and 1.5-2% for the bottom fifth the last three decades have not been good for working class and middle income Americans compared to the the period 1950-1970 early postwar period recovery....

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The situation in Boise, Idaho. Home to many electronics and high tech companies like Micron Technology, Boise has weathered many downturns with unemployment rates well below the national average. This time things are not looking at all like previous downturns, as the unemployment rate in Boise climbed to 6% from 2.7%- it has already approached the national average of 6.7%, and is climbing. This suggests that high tech is also being affected seriously. Unemployment is expected to reach 8% in 2010, about the same as the national average forecast according to Moody's Economy.com. Goldman Sachs forecast is for the 2009 savings rate to be between 6% to 10% by 2009. Families like the Capps and Muirs that have young children or children in teenage years, are now serious savers, as profiled in this description. Down to getting their meat from a calf grown on a family farm in the Rocky mountain region where Boise is located, cutting their own wood in the mountains, buying 11 dozen eggs and freezing the insides of the eggs, buying on deals like $8 winter coats at Old Navy's store, bulk purchases of sugar and staples, growing and canning vegetables, handcrotcheting hats and scarfs for sale on Craigslist and local bazaars. All this from Mrs and Mr Muir including starting a Moneysavers Club, an email group of 30 people. The Muirs are a young family with their first child 5 years ago, who have stable employment, with Mr Muir working as a grape researcher for the state Dept of Agriculture, and his wife a dental assistant. But having taken 2 mortgages to buy their $144,000 home because they could not afford the 20% down payment. The wife's 401K of $3000 going for insulation and fence , and the husband's 401 K savings down to $13,000- reduced to half by the stock market. Suggesting poor decisions on housing debt with low savings for a couple in their thirties. The Capp couple in its forties has also low savings, having $40,000 in student loans, and credit card debt of $11,000 just paid off by using the $10,000 severance package for Mr Capp. The Capps are economizing on everything from skiing to using washable rags instead of paper towels. He worked as a field service engineer for Electroglass, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer based in San Jose which fired two thirds of its field service engineers, including Capp. They also used a $25,000 line of credit on their home to buy a used Toyota 4Runner. Considering their economizing skills, their responding to the downturn by paring down debt as quickly as possible, the information of Mrs Muir's skills at saving, the Capps continuing to use their 253,000 miles Toyota Corolla- these are families that were not crazy spenders, but just families that did not take saving seriously. The Capps made $65,000 from Mr Capps salary and $10,000 from Mrs Capps work at a mental health clinic (after getting a BS in psychology), yet their $2700 in savings suggests no effort was made to save for a rainy day. What this saving and economizing means is that restaurants are closing in large numbers in Boise. Retail stores, including electronics and clothing, are shuttering, All this is leading to higher unemployment, leading to saving measures like those used by the Capps and the Muirs. Meanwhile the numbers for savings accounts at Home Federal Bancorp in Boise, Idaho, a $725 million bank with 15 area branches, shows savings accounts up 26% in December from the previous year. And says the banks consumer banking head, the balances are increasing even as the unemployment rate is going up. Which suggests that Rodriguez and Goldman Sachs may be right (seee link) that the savings rate may reach 10%, and even higher, from what is happening in Boise. Views on currency valuation and the dollar as indicated in the analysis of the article about Rodriguez /Grantham/Scheiff, WSJ, January 2, 2009, may have to be separated from the analysis of what is happening in savings, as the weakening of the dollar relates also to the weakening of other economies and currencies. This steep upturn in saving is likely to affect Chinese exports severely and the Chinese economy. This also affect the German economy, as China imports less from Germany, especially its midsized manufacturers. See links. What is happening on saving, on the other hand, is very real, and happening before our very eyes....

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Denning uses the Brazilian government's scrapping of a 6% tax on foreign purchases of bonds to slow the slide in the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real, to point to the changed situation today for Brazil, India, Turkey and S. Africa. Current account deficits in these countries are high, and foreign investors sentiment about emerging markets may be affected by the street protests in Turkey, reducing inflows of capital. The mining worker protests in S. Africa and the street protests in Turkey, have led to a decline in the currencies of the two countries. The Fed's quantitative easing program may be coming to a close, which would reduce the flows of capital to emerging market countries. Turkey has seen a boom in domestic credit supported partly by foreign capital inflows. The current account deficit to GDP ratio for Turkey is expected to be 7.28% in 2013, for S. Africa 6.46%, and Brazil 3.25%, according to IMF forecast.

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The IEA which is the energy agency of the OECD has updated its demand estimates for oil based on the updated estimates of growth in the US and Europe of the IMF and the OECD. The IEA reports have been behind the curve like the IMF estimates and more after the fact revisions. Their current forecast of world demand growth drops their January estimate of demand by 35% to 1.3 million barrels a day from 2 million barrels a day in 2008 vs 2007. This reflects the one percentage point drop in growth in the USA from 1.5% to 0.5% in the recently revised IMF estimate. This should lead to drop in oil prices from the high of $110 currently. But the IEA is leery of predicting this because of what it sees as robust growth in India and China. Partly IEA is caught between different views of world economic growth, one view holds that Europe will see some impact from the US slowdown but Asia will see less of an impact, another view sees this as a global economic slowdown. More likely considering the extent of the bubbles and the excesses in different countries its likely that whats happening in the US will see effects worldwide and lead to a global slowdown. So look for a further downward revision of numbers for oil demand growth as well as estimates that suggest lower oil prices once the effects are felt on the ground in factories, plants and industry worldwide....

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UN programs to reduce food storage losses in Pakistan by using metal storage containers instead of jute bags and mud silos protect grain from insects, rats and water. This has cut losses in storage of grains by upto 70%.

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International Energy Agency estimates show the U.S. surpassing Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020 because of the boom in shale oil production. The estimates are for 11.1 million barrels a day from the U.S. in 2020.

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The problems divergence between developed and developing economies creates for companies- in slow growth on one side and fast growth with asset bubbles on the other side.

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The IMF's Anoop Singh, director of the Asia-Pacific department, says the inflation in Asia and other countries is a result of wider structural economic shifts, not just a one-off result of the weather related food production declines. For this reason the response should be broader reforms to control inflation. Monetary policies alone cannot therefore do the job, more strengthening of currencies will be needed. Singh says some of the underlying demand in Asia is a result of a widening middle class, which implies the price pressures may not be temporary. The high growth rate in Asia has some good and bad aspects. The bad aspect is the quality of some of the growth and the sustainability of that kind of growth, says Singh.

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Prices for WTI crude dropped below $50 in January 2015. Higher inventories weighed on oil prices and Saudi Arabia added to the pressure by cutting the price of crude sold in the U.S.

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Alan Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University, looks at explanations for low productivity growth since 2010, and points to the most likely reason- the lack of technological progress with the kind of impact that the personal computer and other innovations had in the period 1995-2005. Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple tech innovation has more impact on consumers than on the industrial economy and production. Lower investment since 2010 with the financial crisis could have added to this, but to a smaller degree, says Blinder. Blinder even points to some hours of work being taken up by workers using Facebook, Twitter and other similiar services. The notion strange to Silicon Valley is supported that tech progress, dynamism and entrepreneurship may have actually declined to some extent. Intel's Andy Grove, no stranger to early innovations supported this notion around 2008, saying he saw less innovation of the type he was familiar with, more refinements than breakthroughs by startups in Silicon Valley. Grove was critical of the decline in manufacturing in the U.S., which is likely to have hurt productivity growth....

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Nissan has fallen behind in China and India. It is now trying to take a new approach by being one of the first to build a small car in India that would cost initally $7000, then bring it down to $5000, and also is working to make a car in the long run for about $3000. India has a small car that runs about $5000 made by Maruti Suzuki but this model the Maruti 800 has a rudimentary design that has not been changed since 1983 and its peak time may have passed. Tata Motors is coming up with a small car costing about $2500 or 100,000 rupees w th a sales target of 2 million cars in the first 5 years, with 4 doors four to five seats, and a 660 cubic centimetre rear engine similiar to the size used in minicars in Japan. Hyundai is also big in the Indian market and holds the second largest market share after Maruti Suzuki. Honda has the Civic in India for about $17,000. And Toyota's Corolla runs $23,000 and Toyota is looking at a small car for the Indian market. Nissan is focussing on the Indian market at a time when sales in Japan are falling. The Indian strategy for a global export hub from India for small cars means Nissan has to dedicate resources and priority for this effort. Nissan and Renault plan a joint business center in Chennai. It will also mean Nissan has to break all the old rules as with the current methods margins are very low, 2-3 % on small cars, so new things have to be tried. ...

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Because of government duties on imported car parts and higher production costs and lack of competition Toyota's hybrid Prius costs $40,000 and Honda's Civic hybrid costs $38,000 in China. The same hybrid costs $21,000 in the USA. a huge difference in price. So Toyota only sold only 414 hybrid Prius cars out of 5.2 million sold in 2007. At these prices buyers can afford a more expensive car or SUV. So the hybrids are coming in on cars like the Buick LaCrosse. In China hybrid owners are status conscious and expect a bigger and better equiped car so there is a cultural difference at work here.

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Ford Motor's reliance on the redesigned F-150 and other large pickup trucks for its higher profits in 2015. The price tag on these vehicles keeps rising, with some pickups sold at about $50,000 and having interior leather seating, amenities resembling luxury cars in 2015. Higher fuel efficiency engines, body redesigned with lighter materials including aluminium, other innovations, combined with the lower price of gas, lower interest rates for financing, have led to a resurgence in these larger vehicles.

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A car the early postwar Fiat model 500 which sold 4 million cars for this one mode alone, sold 57000 cars in its new version 50 years later motly on national sentiment in Italy. This is happening in the backdrop of new small cars that are coming up at really low prices in countries like India where the Tata model is expected soon. However this Fiat is being marketed in mature markets like Europe and soon in North America. Is Fiat overlooking the huge Asian market? Interestingly costs are lowered by sharing a Polish factory that makes this car and the Fiat Panda to also make Ford's Ka model.