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Simon Nixon of the Econmist on the report's findings for the future of the world economy. He points to the heavy debt overhang for individuals and banks that will take years to overcome resulting in entrenched unemployment and sluggish growth, somewhat reminiscent of Japan's years of stagnation after its bubble. The entrenched unemployment he argues will permanently lower the economic potential of developed countries of US and Europe. Public debt will rise so that private debt can fall. Bank lending that is cautious will only slow any recovery for a long time. And the grim facts he presents are that about 25 million jobs will be lost in the 30 rich countries of the OECD before all this is over during the coming decade, and several million jobs probably will never come back. Auto manufacturing and manufacturing in general is an example where some jobs lost may never be regained. There is no room for complacency here.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve likely to take into account very low inflation in the U.S. and deflationary trends in Europe, as it makes monetary policy in 2015.

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Jac Welch gives Obama an A for leadership. Mind you he says he doesn't agree with all the President's policies. He is talking about leadership. He scores Obama in four areas, Vision and Team Building, Speed and Authenticity, and he finds him at an A in all areas and gets an A in authenticity with alittle help from Michelle with her warmth and personality. There are 2 more traits on which the test is still going on he says, that of resilience and the wherewithal to champion unpopular causes.

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The Fed over the past year has assumed, backstopped, or committed to take on about $2 trillion in assets from shaky financial institutions including Bear Stearns, AIG, Citigroup and Bank of America. In some cases the banks will assume some of the losses, or Treasury will accept some of the losses before the Fed comes into the picture. Another $1 trillion in lending could occur in 2009 as liquidity programs are tapped further by borrowers and the Fed purchases more bonds such as the ones sold by Fannie and Freddie, and securites backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card receivables and small business loans. This would result in a balance sheet for the Fed over 3 times what it was 18 months ago in mid 2007.

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Treasury Secretary Paulson has emerged as the critical bridge builder within the Bush administration to get some tangible economic results in the spirit of bipartisan cooperation. It has not been easy in a Bush Presidency that has not valued compromise and cooperative relationships with Democrats. Treasury's influence, unlike the Rubin days under Snow and his predecessor, has been overshadowed by the politics of the Bush administration. Some of his initiatives had not fared so well, the efforts to reform Social Security and Medicare. The China-America dialogue may have reduced tensions but still did not amount to something significant. Now with Bush going his own way on Jan 18, 2008 to announce his own stimulus plan and spurning Democrats efforts for a bipartisan agreement and making them feel left out and angry, Secretary Paulson finally got into his own groove of compromise, diplomacy and deft bridgebuilding to get restraint from Bush. He worked out the details in the meantime to forge an agreement by the following week. Paulson was instrumental influence behind this stimulus package. His disregard for ideological debate in an administration that has been too close to this and not known for cooperaive relationship building, is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise desolate field of politicking. Particularly helpful in the middle of a risk laden economic situation for the country, and the other global economies that are intertwined with the US economy....

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The stronger dollar, low inflation, slowing economy in China and slowing global economy, are factors that the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering in its plan to raise interest rates in 2016.

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This Journal editorial looks into the jobs numbers for September 2012 that showed unemployment decreasing to 7.8% according to the household survey. By taking the numbers as they are in the Labor Dept. surveys and setting aside skepticism it provides useful insights into the condition of the labor market. It cites the reason for some of the skepticism about the numbers- the 873,000 jump in employment shown by the household survey which looks at 60,000 households. It is the largest increase in employment for one month in 30 years says the Journal. The household survey finds that 582,000 of the 873,000 jobs are "part-time for economic reasons" in the survey's words. The number of part-time workers for economic reasons went up from 7.7 million in March 2012 to 8.6 million in September 2012. This also returns the focus on U-6 the measure of unemployment that Fed chairman Bernanke and experts looks at. This has remained the same for Sept. at 14.7% and includes the number of people working part-time who cannot find full time work. Another useful statistic for insight into the labor market is the decline in household incomes. Studies of Census data show a $4019 decline in median household income from Jan 2009 to June 2012. And the long term unemployed represent about 40.7% of the employed in recent data, an unusually high number that worries Mr. Bernanke. By looking at the broader picture one can get a better sense of the labor market....

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Where on the global map has there been a far bigger runup in house prices than in the USA? Answer Ireland, and way bigger runup. The average house price went up to $490,000 at the beginning of 2007, an increase of 300% compared to 130% in the US over ten years, according to the IMF. Important to note that in Ireland home prices have dropped only 7%in 2007, even though according to the Economic and Social Research Institute 90,000 new homes were constructed in 2006 double the number needed which suggests large inventory buildup of homes. This is similiar to the situation in the USA where house prices have not dropped more than 10% and in some parts like the northeastern USA not yet dropped according to the National Association of Realtors considering February 2008 over February 2007. See the BW link. What this suggests is that there will be a slow unwinding of the housing price bubble and that it has a long way to go for prices to go down 20-30% as many experts expect. Ireland also shares other problems as we see in countries like Ireland that changed the rues to promote foreign investment, China for instance. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Ireland's hourly pay for manufacturing workers was an astounding $25.96 in 2006 compared to $23.82 in the USA and only $4.99 in Poland. See the link to China, BW April 7, 2008. China is seeing a jump in wages, according to one manufacturer in Hebei province the wages for unskilled workers is 1000 reminbi a month compared to 500 renminbi a month in Vietnam. Ireland is losing foreign investment from companies that are either closing plants or postpoing new investment. Groeth rates close to 6.5% on average for the last 10 years now is projected at 1.6% and will probably be negative when the full brunt of the housing crisis hits Ireland....

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Collapsing demand for used sports utility vehicles.

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Declining U.S. birthrate with 63.2 births per 1000 women of childbearing age in 2011, according to the Pew Research Center. The rate declines by 23% for Mexican immigrants to the U.S. from 2007-2010 as a result of the severe economic effects of the financial crisis of 2008 on Hispanic immigrants.

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Reagan adminstration Budget director, David Stockman, faults the Republicans for not controlling runaway spending, and for tax cuts when the deficit was already growing to unmanageable proportions. The Republican party he says, has not acted responsibly by opposing tax increases for the nation's richest taxpayers of three percentage points. He adds in the municipal bonds and the $7 trillion of new deficits, and says with this the total debt reaches $18 trillion by 2015, a Greece style 120% of gross domestic product, which calls for much needed austerity.

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With the reduced demand for Fannie and Freddie mortgages with coupons under 5%, the Fed steps in and purchases $192 billion of 4% and 4.5% conforming mortgages on a gross basis by March 25, 2009. The move helps support falling house prices in the U.S. and reduces mortgage rates. It also helps banks improve profits. Estimates show the top 10 banks increased their holdings of securities issued by Fannie and Freddie and government agencies by $128.6 billion or 30% in 4th quarter 2008, which can be marked up in future quarters.

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JP Morgan agrees to a legal settlement of $4.5 billion for losses to investors from toxic mortgage securities sold by Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns. JP Morgan acquired the two financial institutions following the 2008 financial crisis. The investor group includes Black Rock Inc, Allianz's PIMCO, MetLife, and Goldman Sachs. The same group of institutional investors settled with Bank of America for $8.5 billion. JP Morgan has set aside $23 billion at the end of the third quarter for legal losses. The settlements now are at about $20 billion. A private suit by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company representing 100 trusts for poorly perfoming bonds sold by Washington Mutual, and seeking $10 billion is still pending. The FDIC is arguing that JP Morgan is liable because it inherited the liabilities when it acquired Washington Mutual. JP Morgan says the acquisition was made as part of a government arranged acquisition at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. It says the FDIC receivership that took Washington Mutual's assets when it failed in September 2008 should pay for any claims related to misrepresentation and false promises for the bonds. ...

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The NYT Editorial on June 2, 2009, says the Obama anti-foreclosure plan is woefully inadequate, and can't stop the wave of foreclosures. The administration's foreclosure plan that went into effect in March 2009, offers upto $75 billion in incentives to lenders to reduce loan payments for homeowners facing foreclosure. Lender participation is largely voluntary under the Obama plan, making it weak. Since March about 100,000 homeowners have been offered a modification according to the Treasury Department. This is a small dent in the plan's intent of preventing 4 million foreclosures. And it continues the Bush administration's apathy and lack of effective action to prevent foreclosures. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that in the first quarter 2009 5.4 million mortgages were delinquent or facing foreclosure. There are 15.4 million "underwater" homeowners, those who have no equity in their homes, and with average person deeply in credit card and other debt, these people have little to fall back on if they lose their jobs or have a medical crisis. The simple arithmetic of these 15.4 and the 5.4 million, adding upto 20.8 million households, shows that anywhere near a fifth of American households are in deep financial trouble. The same numbers, or another fifth of American households, are approaching foreclosure. Drawing concentric circles of these homeowners inside a circle showing all American households, and seeing these concentric circles increasing in size with every quarter of job losses, one can clearly see why this is the biggest problem facing the economy. Job losses in January 598,000, February 681,000, March 699,000, April 539,000, totalling 2.5 million for Jan-April 2009, and 8.9 million working parttime. The underemployment rate at 15.8%. Till this foreclosure situation exacerbated by rising under employment is addressed, the credit easing and the small recovery thats been managed since December 2009, is like a mirage in the desert. A false sense of comfort. The NYT editorial makes the point that the foreclosures prevention efforts focus entirely on reducing monthly payments. Even here it falls short, in not reducing the payments enough, or programs not big enough in scope to address the millions of homeowners needing help. But an even bigger problem remains unaddressed, says the NYT, and this is not reducing the principal. An effective anti- foreclosure plan has to reduce the principal for the 15.4 million homeowners under water. This as Martin Feldstein has argued repeatedly in the oped pages of the WSJ since early 2008- the homeowners under water or approaching that situation have no incentive to hold onto their homes- has to be addressed by government taking responsibility for loan principal reduction in a carefully designed plan requiring participation of lenders. NYT points out that the mortgage industry has resisted taking this approach, and the Obama plan does not emphasize this important part of an effective plan to reduce foreclosures. By opposing this, the banks with the toxic mortgage assets and the government by going along with this, are shooting themselves in the foot. This makes any recovery at best weak, and more likely a false hope lacking fundamental support, foresight and vision....

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CreditSights, a New York research firm says about $33 billion in losses from home equity loans will hit the five largest banks in the latter part of 2010, an amount equal to what they expect in earnings for 2010. This would have an adverse effect on the banks and has the potential to stall the economic recovery.

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Krugman points out the gains on three fronts evident from the Census Bureau report of 5.2% gain in median income of households in the U.S. He says the first is the growth in incomes of ordinary working class and middle class families, second the large decline in the poverty rate, and third the further rise in insurance coverage in 2015 for people without health insurance. He points to the steady efforts of the Obama administration to improve lives of ordinary families as working based on the Census report though results have taken time, and could have been better. The Stimulus, says Krugman could have been larger following the blow of the 2009 financial crisis and increased unemployment at the time. Janet Yellen at the inequality conference of the Boston Fed in 2014 pointed out the problems of 62 million households having net worth of about $10,000, and why this was running against the American idea of a better life for all Americans. In that sense the Census report is a movement in the right direction but a lot remains to be done.   ...

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VW and BMW show strong car sales in Germany, China and the U.S. for the first quarter of 2012, offsetting weaker sales in the rest of Europe.