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Even with an economy that is considered advanced Germany lags behind in social and education mobility. From one generation to the next disadvantages are passed on for less educated lower income people, and a person from lower income or less educational background is more likely to see children not getting a university education.

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The SNP Scottish party and the Liberal Democrats favor early elections and will push for this in parliament. The thinking is that both parties can do better in an election before Brexit is passed. A You.Gov poll for The Times shows only one person in five or 19% see the EU withdrawal deal negotiated by Boris Johnson as "a good deal." SNP, and Lib Democrats say this means voters will vote for parties with clear for or against positions on Brexit including the Independence Party of Nigel Farage. Both SNP and Lib Democrats are for Remain. Labour Party under Corbyn is divided on how quickly to go into another election. The Tories under Boris Johnson are relying on polls showing they are leading by 10 points yet this can change as Theresa May faced a similar situation and called for an early election which led to losing its majority.  Experts on BBC say a December election is highly unusual and most unpredictable, posing big risks for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives particularly now with Johnson advisor Cummings tactics dividing the party. ...

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Shenzen was a small fishing village in the 1970's. Over four decades its population now exceeds that of Hong Kong. Many companies such as Huawei and Tencent, Ping An Insurance and China Vanke are based in Shenzen.  The protests in Hong Kong are not reflected in the sentiment in Shenzen, says this report from Shenzen, China. About three quarters of a million people cross the dozen border crossings linking the two regional economies. People in Shenzen can watch Hong Kong television yet many prefer to watch mainstream Chinese sources of information such as China CTV, and smartphone app WeChat of Tencent. This report describes Hong Kong's waning cultural and economic influence on China so that most people follow the narrative shown on China Television CCTV.  The protests and situation in Hong Kong are also putting back the effort by China to integrate the whole area into what is seen as a "Greater Bay Area" pulling together nine cities in Guangdong province including Shenzen, Hong Kong and Macau. ...

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This report shows the level of coronavirus testing as of March 27, 2020 in different states in the U.S. The U.S. testing program and supplies of tests are being ramped up quickly. About 65,000 tests are being done on Americans each day. The need is for 150,000 tests a day say public health officials. Testing is slow in California compared to aggressive testing in New York which has 60% of all coronavirus cases. California with twice the population of New York has done 77,000 tests compared to 122,000 in New York. Texas has done only 21,000 states by comparison. Every week new testing technology is being developed in different labs, medical companies, and universities. Including tests that can be conducted quickly and not requiring health workers or health workers with protective gear. Speed of processing test, least point of testing contact, and the protocol for quarantine, are all part of the testing and isolating of clusters mechanism to tackle the virus. This is critical in the coronavirus action plan being developed by Dr Brx of the U.S. White House team. ...

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...

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European Union countries, Britain and the US face the risk of a resurgence of coronavirus through the Delta variant and other variants. The Delta variant detected in India is 40% to 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant detected in the UK, with the Alpha variant 50% more transmissible than the original coronavirus that originated in Wuhan.    Virologists in Italy feel they are flying blind at this time because of the lack of genetic sequencing in Italy, Spain, France and across most European Union countries. The UK has done genetic sequencing on 27% of recent covid positive tests. The figure drops to 1% for Italy and is tiny for most of the EU countries including Spain and France. Without genetic sequencing it is hard to predict and take steps. Another problem in the EU is that the southern economies Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Croatia are dependent on summer tourism for the economy. The UK economy can handle a delay to a full opening for 6 weeks without serious impact to the economy, says WSJ. Southern European economies can afford only short delays to full reopening. Croatia acted as a door to spread of coronavirus into central Europe when Germans and Austrians went to vacation spots in Croatia in summer 2020. This situation could be happening again in 2020 with British and other tourists visiting vacation areas in Portugal, and Germans visiting Greece and other summer tourism spots. Portugal's national health institute says the Delta variant represents 60% of new cases in the area around Lisbon based on early data. The government of Portugal is facing criticism for letting a Champions League soccer final to take place in Porto, Portugal between two English teams. Thousands of English fans watched the game at the stadium. Other problems are in relaxing of mask rules in France and Italy, last week in France and in the coming week in Italy. French nightclubs open July 9 without mask requirement. Germany is maintaining some social distancing measures and this includes mandating medical masks in closed public spaces and on public transport. Half of French, Italians, Germans are vaccinated and quarter fully vaccinated. Yet the gaps of unvaccinated people is large enough to cause serious concern of another wave. The relaxation of mask rules- the entire stadium in Budapest was packed for a recent game between Hungary and Italy for a soccer Euro 2021 game with no masks to be seen. Stadiums played a key role for the spread of the original coronavirus in Italy with a game in Bergamo, Italy, in the area near Milan. All this makes health officials concerned about the risks of still another wave of the coronavirus.   ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the result of changes in supply chains away from China, and the new trading relationship with China to 2028. He says the shift to a new global supply chain that diversifies it away from concentration in China is taking place. Would taking the tariffs from 30% to 60% under a new Trump administration be a good idea? Greg Ip thinks it is a bad idea as the change is gradual and is actually taking place. It may have the unintended effect of worsening US China relations essential for global stability when it is coupled with erratic or retaliatory rhetoric. Rhetoric that appears to China that it is being singled out in world trade beyond what are changes that have taken place with Japan in the past in trade. The Biden administration is for good reasons working to restore a balanced yet stable relationship with China. Apple is shifting production of 25% of iPhones to India. Samsung is investing more in Vietnam. The trade deficit with Mexico has reached $151 billion twice as large as in 2017. And $100 billion with Vietnam three times as large as 2017. The US trade deficit with China has dropped from $381 billion to $281 billion in the last 12 months, the Commerce Department reports show. And from $1.1 trillion with the whole world from $1.2 trillion for the last 12 months, 4% of US GDP. Overall the Trump era tariffs of 30% have not reduced the US  trade deficit substantially but has shifted American and European foreign investment to India, Vietnam, Mexico and other countries as well as to the home country. Over time the supply chain would become truly diversified as India makes great strides to become the third largest economy with new infrastructure by 2030. The head emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, Joerg Wuttke, says the pressure to export will be high for China as its economy shifts more to manufacturing from construction. Most Chinese companies are producing more than internal demand in China, and most companies in solar are losing money, in wind turbines and solar all are losing money, Wuttke says. This means China will double down and increase its investments in Mexico, Vietnam, Morocco and other countries so that it can send its products to the US through third countries that do the final export. One expert even says removing a few screws here and some there, find a different supplier, and shipping to a third party for final export that makes it not 100% Chinese content, the pressure for that is high. ...

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Wal-Mart is expected to announce a five year plan to meet specific targets for lowering sodium, trans fats and aded sugars in a whole range of foods- including rice, soups, canned beans, salad dressings and snacks foods- in packaged foods sold under its house brand, Great Value. Other moves towards healthy foods are to move to eliminate the extra cost to consumers for healthy foods made with whole grains. It will also lower prices on fresh fruits and vegetables. This plan is similiar to other plans announced by companies such as Con Agra Foods which set a target of reducing sodium content in foods by 20% by 2015. New York City also has a public health initiative for healthy foods. another move by Wal-Mart is to get major food suppliers like Kraft, to follow the example set by Wal-Mart. Kraft sells 16% of its global sales through Wal-Mart. The move will be gradually introduced over five years which makes for slow progress, and the targets set for sugar reductions are much less than they should be, says Michael Jacobson, executive director of Center for Science in the Public Interest. Another serious drawback is that Wal-mart has not proposed to tackle the major cause of childhood obesity, which is the added sugars in soft drinks....

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German automobile companies have made some bad bets on China sales. Sales in China have collapsed for Porsche as Chinese are buying local Chinese products and local Chinese autos are competitive. NYT reports on Porsche and the bad bet on China sales, then as tariffs hit serious problems.

Oliver Blume Porsche CEO says-

"Our market in China has literally collapsed. U.S. import tariffs are weighing on our business.”

“We already faced massive headwinds last year — now we are experiencing a violent storm."

Audi, Mercedes and BMW have been caught in a storm by making most of their US sold cars in Germany. The warnings from the first DJT term were ignores as they were by Apple in the US which continued to make in China. These companies are now facing problems of acting within a short time to take action to build in America to avoid tariffs.

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Walgreens is changing its growth model to add the business of Health and Wellness buying two companies I-trax Inc. and Whole Health Management which run 350 health centres at corporate offices. Pharmacies will be added to these centres. Its targeting 7600 office sites with 1000 or more employees that could use a health-care center. Its competitors CVS and Walmart are going into managing employer drug benefit programs, with Walmart's selling point being reducing costs of paying for prescriptions for employers.

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Honda plans to move more of its manufacturing to the U.S. as the value of the yen drops below 80 to the dollar in 2011. Honda faces problems from parts shortages after floods in Thailand, and U.S. market share down 1.5 percentage points to 9% in 2011. Honda's profit declined by more than 50% for the third quarter of 2011. The yen trading at 77 to the dollar in Dec 2011 is making it impossible for Honda to make a profit from vehicles made in Japan and sold in the U.S. Honda plans to double the capacity of the Civic plant in Greensburg, Indiana, increase capacity at its other assembly plants. It will build a new plant in Celaya, Mexico, in 2014, to manufacture the Fit subcompact. This will raise North American production from 1.29 million vehicles to close to 2 million. About 200,000 to 300,000 of these vehicles will be exported to other international markets. Profits on small subcompacts are small, making manufacture of the Fit more economical in North America than in Japan. In 2011 Honda manufactured between 30-40% of vehicles in Japan, the new plans are to reduce this to 10-20% in the next 10 years, a major shift....

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Beatrice Weder di Mauro of the German Council of Economic Experts points to the needs for beeter incentives for regulators to ensure their is no local regulatory capture and to ensure that regulators are doing their job well. One is to increase the pay of central bankers and bank supervisors and to make the job nearly as attractive as working in the private sector. The other is to give more authority to supranational institutions to regulate. She points out that competition has been kept in the Eu's domain and this has helped ensure consistency in the way bank bail outs are being handled in the European countries. The same needs to happen in Europe for banking reguolation and oversight. She points out the flaw in the argument for national regulators on the basis that the money to bailouts comes locally. a substantial part of the bailouts come in the form of regulatory forbearance, enabling banks to make higher profits because of reduced competition, and implicit support from central banks. And she adds that the temptation to solve the future crises by these "off balance sheet methods" is greater now because no one wants to go to parliament or congress to get bail out money for banking instituitons....

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Worst performing are Nissan and Renault cars, says this report in The Times, going up to 11 times the legal limit for emissions, according to a study for the UK.

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The German government has taken notice of hate speech on social media and social bots. The Justice Ministry convened a task force on hate speech on internet. Justice Minister Heiko Maas promised legal action against social media like facebook and twitter if it violated laws of libel and inciting to violence. Chancellor Merkel is bringing in a data science expert Professor Simon Hegelich of the Technical University of Berlin for consultations in Dec. 2016. Only AfD of the main parties, with its anti-immigration stance, has not come out in favor of not using social bots or paid trolls in the 2017 elections. Hegelich in talk with DW.com says it is hard to legislate on this because the whole phenomenon has not been fully understood. Article 5 of the Constitution provides for free speech. Hegelich also says the state of technology moves faster than legislation, and being international sites like facebook, twitter and others pose additional issues. He does not say laws cannot be helpful but that its not clear how best to do this. Thomas Jarzombek is a CDU member of parliament and digital media expert. He says social bots are more likely controlled by foreign countries, and fake news sites are more of a domestic problem. Making this worse is the incentive for unemployed journalists to do blogging of the crude and aggressive type to make more money. Jarzombek sees the need for the press to do more in its role for the democratic process to function properly, by functioning in the role of "enlightenment" and "awareness."  Jenna Behrends, a law student and CDU local politician for Berlin-Mitte, says it is necessary for good bots to be used to fight bad bots, in an article in Der Spiegel. Major mainstream media would then have to launch social bots themselves to fulfill their role of providing the public with correct and fair information free of excessive bias and distortion of the bad bots. One example of this is shown explicitly here of German chancellor Merkel's picture with the words " Guilty of betraying the people," with links to "Drain the swamp," and "Brexit." A more complex question is one of how to let people vent out frustration about the mainstream media itself being biased in favor of the established views and not doing enough or giving enough space to reflect alternative views, so that these can be debated without inflammatory language and deliberate distortion. A whole range of tools and modifications of behaviour may be necessary ahead of next years elections in France and Germany, now that the phenomenon is better understood following a vote in the Anglo-Saxon countries.   ...

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Shiller points to a Gallup poll that shows that two thirds of Americans don't see a recovery in two or more years. He cites the economist Samuel Bowles who points to the errors of thinking that a high performing economy can be based on self-interest alone. In these lectures titled "Machiavelli's Mistake" at Yale, Bowles warns that the overuse and abuse of incentives that appeal to individual's self interest only could lead to a collective disorientation. He points to a book "Identity Economics" that carries the same theme. In that book economists George Akerloff of the University of California, Berkeley, and Rachel Kranton of the University of Maryland, show that an economy works well when peple identify with it . Their self-esteem has to be woven into the activities of the society and economy. This describes today's mood where other polls done by Wall Street Journal and NBC in January 2010 show a majority of people do not see a bright future for their children's generation. And it has become hard for ordinary Americans to identify with activities in an economy where individuals are pursuing their self interest regardless of how it benefits the society and the economy as a whole....

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A way of gauging the extent of a bubble in the internet IPO's in 2013, says Hulbert, is the first day return on IPO's in the U.S. of 25% in mid-Aug to mid-Nov 2013 compared to 96% in the first quarter of 2000. He cites a study by finance professors Jerry Wurgler of New York University's Stern School of Business and Malcolm Baker of Harvard Business School, which stresses the need to use objective indicators in assessing the current equity markets and not relying on memories alone. Investor caution after two bubbles since 2000, active regulatory oversight of markets, and legal frameworks updated for changes in financial markets have provided additional safety and stability to markets. The study authors cite evidence for the changes in the way investor sentiment values speculative stocks compared to established stocks. The price/book ratio per share or net worth of established stocks is way higher compared to speculative stocks in 2013 compared to 2000. In 2013 established companies in the S&P 1500 index, according to FactSet, had a 49% higher price/book ratio on average than speculative stocks. Wurgler and Baker used dividend paying stocks as "established" stocks compared to non dividend paying stocks as "speculative." Another piece of evidence that companies are also adjusting to sentiment this time is that less money is coming from stock issuance in 2013 of 11% compared to 20% in 2000. Visible evidence of company behaviour is also telling- banks are changing bahaviour after tougher regulatory oversight and settlements in 2013. GE is planning to shrink GE Capital and put it on sale. Investors have sharply cut back allocations to stocks and are returning to modestly higher allocations from much lower levels and memories of 2000 and 2008 are still present....

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Asset reports of Fed governors and candidates for Fed chairman show Ben Bernanke and Daniel Tarullo at the low end of $1-$3 million, Stein, Duke and Yellen at $5-$12 million in the middle, and at the high end are Summers $8-$31 million, and Powell between $17-$40 million.

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Whitacre is basically blunt about his mission from the Obama adminstration when he attends meetings at the Tech Center in Warren or at the Westin Detroit Airport hotel and the San Antonio club: get GM growing again, he wants to see market share north of 20%. The Obama administration, Bloom and others are clear about the government wanting to get its $50 billion for the USA and $9 billion for Canada back as early as possible. He has told GM's Henderson he will be replaced it things don't change fast enough, and he wants product out faster, 2 year development times for new cars instead of three years today. The same message has been passed on to middle and upper middle managers in diagonal meetings. And what are readers commenting on this- and readers views matter a lot because GM has a wrong perception out there that hurts sales- a third of twelve readers said they cannot understand why young people are not moved up to run the company especially from design and engineering, one mentions Whitacre's age 70 years. A third just don't think much will change, and one says he will buy aFord. And a third says Whitacre is the guy who can shake things up and he should. ...

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GM says it will end traditional pension contributions and instead use a 401 (K) plan. GM's pension plan was underfunded by $8.7 billion as of Sept 30, 2011. GM will also freeze salaries for 26,000 salaried workers. Salaried workers will get an extra week of vacation. GM's 48,500 UAW union represented hourly workers will receive bonuses under a formula dependent on profitability and quality. Salaried employees will receive smaller bonuses because other metrics such as free cash flow and earnings before interest and taxes, and not just profit, are used to determine bonuses. GM's management sees GM as not having enough margins to reduce risk to the level it should be. The pension shortfall and the losses in Europe are also on their minds. Margins at GM lag behind compettitors. GM's margins are at about 6%, compared to Hyundai and BMW having margins of 10% in 2011. These changes come as GM plans to show a record profit of $8 billion in 2011. Management sees no room for complacency after the missteps in the last decade leading to the government bailout. A strategic decision made by GM in 2011 was to reduce the overhang of high inventory by reducing production, changing the way GM operates now compared to the years before bankruptcy....

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The benchmark price of U.S. crude oil dropped to $31.41 a barrel on January 11, 2016, as oil prices continued to drop sharply following a slowdown in China, appreciation in the U.S. dollar and no cuts in production from Saudi Arabia. Analysts expect a crisis for energy producers that is deeper than ones in 1986, and five plunges in oil price all the way back to 1970. With the oil prices at $30 and expected to drop below $30, the companies that took on a lot of debt have no choice but to keep up production. In the process many may find themselves in bankruptcy. Private equity with capital of $100 billion is likely to come in at this point to buy cheap assets without the debt, say analysts. U.S. banks energy portfolios are small, with Wells Fargo energy exposure only 2% for oil and gas loans in the third quarter of 2015, or about $17 billion. Loans that are rated "sub-standard. doubtful or loss," are projected at 15% of loans to energy producers, about $34.2 billion, in a biannaual review by banking regulators. The unusual aspect of this energy price slump is that production is not declining with falling prices- oil production in the U.S. was estimated by the government at 9.2 million barrels a day in Jan 2016- 1% higher than at the beginning of 2015 when prices were over $40 a barrel....

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Old deteriorating obsolete power grid infrastructure and inadequate fuel are leading to blackouts in Cuba in 2024. Much of the population of 11 million residents in Havana and across the island are affected including schools with blackouts lasting several hours.

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Turkish Opposition alliance leader Kilicdaroglu, a civil servant who has acted with humility throughout his career leading the Republican party founded by Kemal Ataturk in 1923, says he will bring Turkey back into the European fold. He would do this by strengthening NATO and Turkey's participation in NATO, admitting Sweden, and by seeking membership in the European Union. He tells a huge crowd in Istanbul:   "There are 5.3 million people who will go to the ballot box for the first time and cast their votes, and they want freedom and democracy... This fact is very important for us, for Turkey, for the European Union of which we are trying to be a member, and for western civilization." The last line "for western civilization" is striking as Turkey now and its younger generation sees itself as part of western civilization, of the EU and the US. Modernization of Turkey happened after Kemal Ataturk became president in 1923 and Turkey's identity has been forged as part of Europe in the twentieth century. It is now returning to its roots from the period before the Renaissance in Europe. ...

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US House Republicans are pursuing cuts in spending of as much as 50% in many programs that are considered essential, such as a 50% cut in foreign aid at a time of global food insecurity, deep cuts in the FBI's counter intelligence budget, deep cuts in healthcare services and housing to low income Americans following the pandemic and high inflation, and other cuts to services benefiting workers and families. Democrats in Congress and president Biden oppose such cuts and hope to eliminate the deficit with cuts that do not place an unfair burden- taxes on the wealthiest with over $100 million and on stock buybacks would generate about $2 trillion to cover the whole deficit which is in the range of $1.4 trillion in 2023 moving to $2 trillion a year. Much of the Republican plan is being shaped by Mr. Trump's former Budget Director, Russell Vought, says this report in the NYT. Mr. Vought calls it an attack on the bureaucracy and woke spending. Other Republicans see this as an ideological approach that does not address today's problems. Chuck Schumer, Democrats Senate Majority Leader asks Republicans to spell out their plan. ...

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The symbolism of the Ramstein Air Force Base is unique as US Defense Secretary Austin says this months meeting of Blinken and Austin at Ramstein with their European counterparts will be followed by monthly meetings. Lloyd Austin sees this as a monthly group on Ukraine self-defense. Ramstein Air Force base is the headquarters of the US Air Force in Europe, and of NATO Allied Air Command. For the first time the invasion of a free people and country in the middle of Europe is being taken seriously in Europe and the US.  In Germany Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck of the Greens have joined with Mr. Lindner of the Free Democrats to express the same views in the coalition government with the Social Democrats, making it clear that the German people are with the Americans and European leaders gathered at Ramstein base. The earlier symbolism of Merkel and Steinmeier and a German position of a bystander in the changes happening in the world in China and in Europe are now seen as having emboldened the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India and most Asian and Latin American countries and the UN Secretary General have called for an immediate end to the invasion.  ...

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William Barr, Attorney general of the US 1991-1993 and again 2019-2020, says serious regulation to breakup the power and chokehold on communications of Big Tech should be the first priority of 2023. He says they have too much power and pose a threefold danger. First they have a chokehold over essential channels of communications and commerce, letting them be the gatekeepers to the digital world. Second they vacuum up a trove of personal information of users that permits manipulating user beliefs and behaviour. Third, they distort the "marketplace of ideas"  and as gatekeepers can pursue their own political and economic agendas. He cautions antitrust litigation is too slow and case by case approach is not the way. And too much time is misspent on proving misconduct, when that is not necessary, as regulatory intervention has been needed whether or not there is misconduct for a fair and good market system to work. He says new dangers are happening and it is time for Congress to stop being all talk and no action even as digital platforms are taking unfair advantage and endangering the fairness of the market system. ...