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Much of the inflation reduction actions were taken by the US Federal Reserve as the central bank of the Nation and by president Biden in passing the Inflation Reduction Act and investing in growing the economy. All this may be jeopardized by the action of a Trump administration limiting the independence of the central bank. The support for crypto currency by Trump creates more risks to the economy. Additional risks are posed by the views expressed in Project 2025 on the US central bank. It is stated that the financial stability mandate be removed, that employment stability be removed and its regulatory role be effectively taken out. A commission to be appointed to look at alternatives to the central banking role of the US Fed. There are inflationary episodes and banking crises yet they stem from poor behaviour of banks as private players (2009 financial crisis) and price gouging by companies and firms and are not because of the central bank. There are also episodes of poor management  which reflected the culture of that period such as Libertarian culture under Greenspan. As in management in private industry firms good or poor managers make adifference. The institution created of the central bank around 1910 comes from the crises that happened in the period before that  and how it evolved into its postwar role. This includes the Great Depression when it did not have its regulatory, financial stability and employment role. Tampering with the basic structure that has evolved over 100 years of experience would cause lasting damage to the US economy and expose it to hidden risks. This would put a severe burden on the Nation after the loss of one million lives in the pandemic that just happened, the cost of living crisis, and the severe impact that decades of loss of local manufacturing have placed on communities across America- which both the US Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell and president Biden have fought so hard to tackle. ...

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DJT executive orders include one ending birthright citizenship. “It was really meant for children of slaves." DJT is referring to the 14th Amendment that was passed in 1868 by Congress and ratified by 1868 by the states. It came after the Civil War and Emancipation of slaves and was intended without any doubt for one and only one purpose to make slaves citizens of the United States Look at Section 4 of the 14th Amendment which says the United States will not allow any claim for the loss of any slave. "But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void. The only SC decision in US vs Wong Kim that gave citizenship in 1898 to Wong Kim was not intended to go beyond that particular case, it was only meant to make an exception to the Chinese Exclusion Act  of 1882 after which till 1960 (JFK's election) Chinese immigration to the US was stopped, and the same for all Asians. Only immigrant labor allowed in was from Mexico for agriculture till 1960. And in 1954 Operation Wetback wwas conducted by Eisenhower to return about 1 million illegal immigrants to Mexico. DJT says- “It was not meant for everyone to come into our country by airplane, or charging across the borders from all over the world and think they’re going to become citizens.” The millions that came illegally across land border  and the flow of drugs is a new situation that Congress and the Supreme Court are only facing since 2014 a period in which wars in Afghanistan and Iraq took time and resources away from problems at home. ...

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Estimates of the contraction of the Iranian economy in 2012-2013 show GDP declines for 2012 and 2013. The IMF estimate of the economic contraction for fiscal year ending March 2013 was 6%. Former president Ahmadinejad's policies led to hyper inflation, a sharp depreciation of the currency rial, similiar to the situation in Venezuela under Chavez and Maduro. To get a sense of the the scale of the damage to the Iranian economy- a decline of 39% in vehicle production in 2012 with the lack of essental parts and decline in demand, oil production declining to about 700,000 barrels at one point in 2013 from over 2 million barrels in the period before 2012. This was a result of lack of access to needed technology and parts as sanctions began to take a toll, and because of the decline in exports from the enforcing of sanctions by 2013. By June 2014 the newly elected leader Rouhani had made economic recovery the to priority- inflation had been cut in half and the rial currency had recovered from the lows in 2012-2013, and oil production increased to 1.2 million barrels. The IMF forecast is for GDP growth of 2.35% for 2015. The auto maker Khodro Industrial Group is keen on increasing production and partnering again with Renault, which left the country with the sanctions. Iran's oil producing company estimate is that about 700,000 increase in production could be achieved quickly with the lifting of sanctions for oil technology and parts. Rouhani has put together a large group of business leaders inside Iran and overseas to improve Iran's image with investors and attract foreign investment....

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A Peterson Institute of International Economics study on the TPP trade agreement shows it would reduce growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector by a fifth, according to this report in the NYT. Workers incomes and job losses in manufacturing are a key concern for voters and account for the surge in polls for Trump and Sanders in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. All four leading candidates Clinton, Sanders, Trump and Cruz oppose the TPP agreement. Congress will wait till after the election to decide. This is a big issue today because about 5 million jobs have been lost in 1977-2014, according to the Alliance for American Manufacturing. The Peterson study predicts job losses of 50,000 a year, yet another study by Tufts University predicts job losses of 450,000 a year. Another study by the Economic Policy Institute study shows other damaging effects such as labor's share of national income declining from the TPP.

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Natural Gas is set at a target of 15% by 2030 of India's energy mix from 6% in 2024. India is learning from China's experience where LNG is used to fuel heavy and medium commercial vehicles. As new LNG terminals to gas pipelines infrastructure takes time to be built the use of SSNLG or Small Scale Natural Liquified Gas projects is being adopted to speed up shift to natural gas which costs less and is less damaging for climate change.

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IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad interviewed by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation. He drives a 15 year old Volvo and tells the interviewer that the Volvo is nearly new, just 15 years old. He says he is proud to encourage employees to see the value of frugal living. IKEA has 90,000 employees, 202 stores in 32 countries. He says IKEA will need the billions of francs the company earns to build the business in Russia and China. All the money the company earns the company will need as a reserve.

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Fiat takes full ownership of Chrysler with an agreement reached in Jan. 2014 for the UAW trust fund's 41% stake in Chrysler. Under the terms of the $4.35 billion deal Fiat will pay the UAW retiree health fund $1.75 billion in cash, Chrysler will make a $1.9 billion contribution, and Chrysler will also pay the trust $700 million over 4 annual instalments. Under an agreement shaped by the Obama administration 58.5% stake went to Fiat and the remaining 41.5% to the UAW trust fund. Chrysler repaid government loans early with the success of the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Dodge Ram and Dodge Dart models, and the first quarterly profit in 2011. The $1.7 billion Fiat pays for Chrysler under this agreement bringing the total to $3.8 billion, shows the value of the management skills brought by Sergio Marchionne and persistent effort to turn things around at Chrysler since the 2008 financial crisis led to the bankruptcy of Chrysler. In comparison Daimler Benz paid $36 billion for Chrysler in 1998, and $7.4 billion was paid by private equity firm Cerberus Capital for an 80% stake in 2007. It is also a major achievement of the team of managers put together by Fiat's Sergio Marchionne. Chrysler is now the seventh largest car company close to Honda in size, with 4.5 million in global auto sales, according to OICA. Fiat-Chrysler is now a global company with sales worldwide....

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New films at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival in France with Directors Johansson, Stewart and Dickinson.

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Fuel efficiency rules require average fuel efficiency in the U.S. of 35 mpg by 2016. The debate is now on what to do for 2017 to 2025. New technology such as the P2 systems for hybrids already used in VW, Nissan and Hyundai vehicles makes a 20% increase in fuel efficiency possible. Large investments are being made to bring new technology to bear on increasing fuel efficiency significantly. Government agencies are looking at different scenarios by which the new fuel economy standards beyond 2017-2025 could be set between 47 mpg and 62 mpg. An additional factor is the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions- at 47 mpg the reduction would be 3%, at 62 mpg the reduction would be 6%. Another factor is how much the impact is on the cost of vehicles and reduced cost on gasoline. Here there is a wide range in the numbers for average mpg rules at 62 mpg- with EPA estimates at $2800-$3500 increase in vehicle cost and $5000 savings in fuel cost, Centre for Automotive Research estimates at $9790 increase in vehicle cost. The 62 mpg translates into "real world" actual efficiency of 45 mpg. In April 2011, 17 senators put out a letter of support for the 62 mpg proposal. There is a public value involved in this that is also significant- the reduced dependence on foreign oil means savings in defense expenditures in parts of the Middle East, and an economy that is less impacted by volatility in the price of oil. As this aspect of public value or benefits cannot be quantified easily even though they are significant, this may tend to be lost in the debate and the politics of fuel efficiency. For automakers there is significant marketing value in having a visible and strong presence in fuel efficient vehicles because of perception as forward looking- something that hurt Detroit carmakers in the last decade. During periods of gasoline prices at $5 a gallon this provides carmakers with an extra cushion of safety in securing car sales. Carmakers in one country such as the U.S. also have to worry about what carmakers in other countries such as Japan and Germany are doing- if the standards in the U.S. develop a gap compared to other countries developing advanced fuel efficiency technologies this poses significant risks because of the global nature of the automobile marketplace. See the group "Asleep at the Spigot" for more details on this. Many of these less quantifiable factors do not get the attention they deserve because they are significant from experience but not easily quantified. Throw into this the large unknown of what new technologies not yet developed lie ahead with a burst of effort by one country or another, which bring cost reductions at the same time - and the debate requires as much a good sense of what is the path offering the greatest advantages in years ahead than a pure exercize in numbers. ...

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The artificial nature of the target of debt to GDP of 120% for Greece in 2020. This is the target being followed in negotiations by the troika of the ECB, IMF and the EU. Experts say the sustainable level would be much lower for Greece -this would be much lower because of the aging population in Greece and lower level of workers to support retirees in future years, the inefficient tax collection system and poor prospects for changing it, the degree of control over monetary policy and the rate of change of debt. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements shows debt sustainability at 85% after studying 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. No precise source has been found for the 120% target. An IMF Report in 2011 said the 120% was the "maximum level considered sustainable." Alan Auerbach at UC Berkeley and Michael Woodford at Columbia University, say the additional factors are relevant to Greece. The many unpredictables over the course of ten years is another serious difficulty.

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Antonis Samaras continues his efforts to get the EU to agree to a two year extension for deficit targets agreed to in the March 202 bailout. He meets Merkel in Berlin, Aug. 24 and Hollande in Paris, Aug. 25. Merkel's coalition partners the Free Democrats oppose an extension. The opposition Social Democrats leader Steinmeier tells the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper "its not very smart to abandon all conditions for aid over an extension of 12 months." Samaras tells the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper: "our economy shrank 27%. Greece is bleeding, It is really bleeding." And German finance minister Schauble tells Germany's SWR2 radio that its too early for Greece to come back and say the agreed aid is insufficient considering that its ony 6 months since the March 2012 agreement. Merkel and other leaders in the Christian Democrats say they will wait till a report from the troika (the EU, ECB and the IMF) in October 2012 before responding.

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Baker and Erlanger describe Russian president Putin's effort to finance parties on the right and the left to oppose western sanctions on Russia. The effort by Russian television RT to spread disinformation in the European Union. The goal is to create fractures in European unity and weaken the European Union and NATO. Other experts such as former national intelligence officer, Fiona Hill, and former assistant secretary of state, David Kramer, are skeptical about the effectiveness of these methods. These methods may also come from an old book of methods from the Cold War period because of president Putin's experience in Dresden during the Soviet days, which current European Union leaders would see as having little relevance to the global economy and global scene of today. The rise of the smaller parties in Europe in opposition to the traditional parties has more to do with the difficult economic conditions in Europe, and has little in common with Russia and its problems with its oil dependent economy and its interests in Eastern Europe. As the 2015 Pew Research survey on Europe shows, opinion is shifting towards greater support for the European Union as economic conditions improve, and is likely to move further in this direction with a return to economic growth. Favorable views of the EU which dropped from 60% in 2012 to 53% in 2014, was up to 61% in 2015, according to the survey. The Euroskeptic parties are viewed "as a good thing," as a way to shake up the complacency of the major ruling parties in tackling the economy, according to the Pew Europe Survey. In the percentage of people who see the Euroskeptic parties as a good thing for the country- Podemos left party in Spain gets 70% favorable rating, UK Independence Party 66% favorable, Five Star Movement in Italy 58%, AfD in Germany 50%, and much less so in France with 36% saying this for the National Front, and 36% for the New Right in Poland....

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Women executives at a panel discussion sponsored by Columbia Universiy in New York, in Dec. 2014, provide ideas for getting more women in Tech fields. Ideas include, mentoring, with early education exposure to technology careers- as early as middle school. One executive says she takes in 150 female high school students to Washington D.C. for leadership training. Other ideas are to turn maternity leave into a positive feature of women's lives by letting women who do well keep their duties by delegating them to others while they are away, and making a smooth pathway back to work full time. The suggestion is to allow a gradual transition to ramp back up to full time work, and allow flexible hours, working from home. In daily work women are encouraged to look for partnerships with other areas of the organization for getting results, and being sensitive to which areas of the organization they need to build support in.

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Government bonds will be purchased by central banks of each country roughly in proportion to the size of their national economies in the eurozone. Risks for 80% of the purchases of bonds in the $1 trillion program will be borne by the central bank of each country. For 12% of the remaining bonds purchases will be made in the European Investment Bank bonds, here risk will be shared with the ECB. For the remaining 8% the ECB itself will make bond purchases. This avoids a situation where the risk of bonds going down in value is borne by that country and not passed on to other countries in the eurozone, as a matter of fairness in distributing risks. This also limits moral hazard where painful budget decisions are not made by countries in need of budget overhauls because risk can be passed on. A big reason why this can work in 2015 is that the eurozone has already emerged from the crisis period of 2012-2013, and is beginning to experience growth in 2015. Just this kind of boost to lending was provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve when the U.S. emerged from its crisis period in 2009-2011, and helped the economy grow in 2013-2014....

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Increasing regional tensions with a more assertive Japan and China. U.S. president Obama's so called "pivot to Asia," appears to have little impact. China has tended to look for its own security architecture in Asia that excludes the U.S. U.S. efforts to reduce tensions are being ignored by China in May-June 2014, as China asserts itself in waters that are in dispute with Vietnam. The lack of U.S. influence compares unfavorably with the situation that prevailed since 1900, when the U.S. had the most significant influence in Asian waters. It has more to do with a policy of withdrawal under the Obama administration than U.S. capabilities. The policy of withdrawal in the Middle East comes after much of the sacrifice had been made and the situation in Iraq changed, so that for a much smaller incremental effort the U.S. could have both lived up to its principles and ideals for democracy and freedom as well as win public opinion in the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East. This withdrawal in the Middle East has given Russia and China the wrong signal leading to more assertive stance in Europe and Asia, and creating uncertainty where little uncertainty existed about U.S. determination. Under whatever terms it is wrapped the policy of the Obama administration is one of withdrawal. It is dangerous because it will mean a more costly effort would be needed under a future administration to restore the situation which prevailed earlier- in which the U.S. has helped create a climate in which the entire region including China and Japan have prospered economically, without the region descending into a competition between Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and India. The Obama administration with its muddled policies has inadvertently created this situation....

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Country by country situation for coronavirus as of April 4, 2020, in this report in the NYT.

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NYT's Landon Thomas gives this exceptional report on how Deutsche Bank changed from a lender to the German auto industry and safe banking practices to enter the derivatives business and other opaque financial products that led to taking on huge risks. Deutsche Bank has agreed on Dec. 22, 2016 to settle with the U.S. Justice Department paying a fine of $7.2 billion for practices relating to faulty mortgage securities. This report says the problems started in 1995 with Deutsche Bank's leadership hiring Edson Mitchell of Merrill Lynch to promote the investment banking business at Deutsche Bank. Mitchell hired two derivatives traders Broeksmit and Anshu Jain. Mr. Mitchell died in plane crash in 2000 when he was 47 years age, Mr. Broeksmit committed suicide in 2014, 58 years in age, Mr. Anshu Jain, 53 years old, is the only surviving person of the three. Under Mr. Jain Deutsche Bank assumed more and more risk, and was involved in complex and opaque financial products leading to the toxic mortgage crisis, and manipulation of the lending rate for London banks.  It also lent $300 million to Donald Trump's businesses. Most of the profits generated from this venture have evaporated, with analysts estimating $15 billion in fines and penalties owed of the $20 billion that these ventures generated. Not counting the serious damage to the bank's reputation in Germany and the U.S. This report points out the role played by the CEO from 2002 to 2012 of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, in encouraging these ventures converting the bank from its original loan as a contintental lender to business to a bank selling opaque financial products for most of its profits. Landon Thomas also describes the events and days leading up to the suicide by Broeksmit, including a visit to a psychiatrist and Broeksmit's facing enormous stress about the investigations underway in Germany and the U.S. looking into the opaque financial products and practices of Deutsche Bank. This is also a cautionary tale about what happened in banking from the late 1990's leading to the collapse in 2008, leading to the problems of today- the need to rescue the economy in 2008-2009 and the low rate world that ensued damaging the savings of ordinary people, the infrastructure that was never built, the parallel crisis of the hollowing out in manufacturing as a false prosperity boomed in banking and finance. In a sense it is also a story of everyday lives that were damaged in the high flying boardrooms of finance in New York, London and Frankfurt. The revolving door between regulators and the banks made it harder to monitor and control banking risk letting this story unfold over decades, damaging the credibility of governments and the established political parties without clear alternatives from outside; as the dominance of Wall Street executives in the new outsider Trump administration shows.  ...

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Andy Grove makes this passionate plea for the dignity of workers in America in 2010. It is worth reading in 2020 what this founder of Intel Corp and pioneering spirit of Silicon Valley has to say. Andy Grove of Intel says there is something seriously wrong when the unemployment rate in the Bay Area is higher than the 9.7% national average for the USA. American companies have added jobs like crazy in Asia, but things are sputtering back home. Hon Hai has 800,000 employees and makes most of the electronic and computer products for American companies. Grove says startups are not the answer, unless they scale up and create jobs the way Intel did starting back in 1968, with a $3 million capital infusion by investors. The move from the first production model to mass production is critical, as companies hire thousands of people. Innovation and scaling up have to go together. He makes his point clearly by pointing out that Apple has 25,000 employees. For every Apple employee there are 10 employees in China working on Apple iMacs, iPods, iPhones. And he adds that the same 10 to 1 relationship applies to other U.S. tech companies. And here Grove asks the tough question by first posing an answer. He says it sounds like- no big deal, we keep the high paying jobs, we keep most of the profits, but what kind of society are we going to have with highly paid professional workers and lots of people unemployed? And he doesn't mention that there are a lot more young people unemployed. He says the US has become very inefficient at creating tech jobs, and it would be a great mistake not to act decisively early on. And adds that the investments in such areas as solar power and electric car batteries have to be made early on to maintain leadership in these areas. Grove faults academics like Alan Blinder and others who say loss of manufacturing jobs and whole industries was no big deal. The U.S. has forgotten the value of manufacturing jobs. He wants to see America focus on jobs and rebuild its industrial base. And less of transferring engineering knowhow and new technologies overseas, technology that can help bring innovation and scaling up of factories at home. In his view individual companies doing their own thing, in a misguided fashion that jobs don't matter, is not the answer to the situation we face. The industrial economies of Asia, China at the present day, have focussed on jobs and technology, and scaled up. Grove reminds readers of the situation in America in 1932, when jobless veterans demonstrating outside the White House in large numbers were dispersed by soldiers with live ammunition and fixed bayonets. This makes him shudder at the very thought of it, and brings back memories of his early years in Hungary, as a young man in 1956. Are we listening? ...

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Reno, Nevada, has  high unemployment and high housing costs. The shift of higher income people from California to Reno, and the building of a mega Tesla plant in the area have pushed up housing costs. The population of Reno in Washoe County increased by 25 percent or 100,000 since 2019. With casino hotels the employees incomes lag behind high grocery costs. Housing takes a larger share of the household budget so that many people are living on the edge. One retiree sees rent for a 2 bedroom home go up to $1600, leaving $600 for groceries. He uses a mobile food bank parked outside a middle school. Food bank officials says they serve 155,000 people, up 70% since 2019. A retired electrician says his electric bill has doubled to $300 leaving less from a $1500 social security check. Comparing 2023 to 2019- Rents jumped 34% in Reno, in the US it was 28%. An average home jumped 43% from $383,000 to $549,000. ...

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In Nevada sell federal land to cut housing costs in 2025. Some estimates show that 1.5 million homes can be built on Bureau of Land Management land within 2 miles of Las Vegas city limits. In Nevada 80% of the land is owned by federal government. After the Mexican American War in 1846 Nevada was transferred to control of US government from Mexico to end the war and it stayed that way.

Us president DJT supports using federal land and so does his Interior Secretary Don Borghum.

DJT says he will “open up new tracts of federal land for large-scale housing construction, and you’ll get it for a much lower price.” He would “create special new zones with ultralow taxes and ultralow regulations,” to create jobs.

“We’re going to open it up. We’ll start with a small portion. You’ll get it going, and then we’re going to open up large portions of land.”

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"Having a country invading their neighbor with impunity that is a dire message to the rest of the world, and we are not making the mistakes of the past." 

Macron speaks of Russian threats to other places, to Moldova and Romania. 

Macron shows a chart of Russian rearmament with increases from 1.2 million men in the army to 1.5 million  and 1200 military aircraft to 1500 aircraft.

'Peace cannot come at any price, by abandoning Ukraine, the collapse of Ukraine."

"We have seen this happen in the past. Who can forget the invasion began in 2014, there was a ceasefire that was agreed to in Minsk and that the same Russia did not keep the ceasefire."

"We cannot take them at their word. Ukraine has a right for peace and security. It is in our interest. And we are working with our European allies."

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So much talk about age in office. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa is 91 years old and the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee. So far he has handled the nomination hearings for Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi decently says this report. A lot of the DJT  immigration agenda and rebuilding the government agencies depends on the Judiciary Committee chairman.  Grassley remains unfazed after winning the 8th term in 2022- "We’ve got freedom of speech in this country,” he said. “But the voters speak, and I won by 13 percent or maybe 12 percent … Isn’t age just a number?” Age just a number, and president Carter made it to 100, president Biden who knows, who knows? Lyrarc.com in the adjoining article shows Biden saying at a church in Charleston, S.C. "I'm not going anywhere. I'm not kidding. I'm in no ways tired." ...

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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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Talks at the White House between Macron of France and DJT on Feb 24, 2025. DJT says Russian president Putin will accept European and American troops in Ukraine to monitor a peace settlement as a peace keeping force. French troops were offered for such aforce by Macron. DJT says he asked Putin directly this question and the answer was yes for a peacekeeping force to end the war. Analysis by The Times shows Britain and the EU are coming to terms with DJT policy to end the war and Europe shouldering its defense  responsibilities and costs because America has challenges in the Asia Pacific with the rise of China. 

To get an idea of China's resources and capacity it now has over 50% of ship building capacity in the world. The US is only now ramping up its efforts to build ships and increase the effectiveness and size of the US Navy, and a major defense effort is underway.

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Us efforts led by Piedmont Lithium in North Carolina to build supplies for the lithium needed in electric vehicle batteries. The effort to get the first US big new lithium mine into operation is part of a broader effort to  build a US supply chain for the ultra light lithium metal that is highly conductive. In fact the modern lithium mining industry started in the rolling hills of the Piedmont region in North Carolina. At that time in the 1950's it was needed for nuclear bombs. Today China mines 10% of world's supplies. Abermarle Corp of the US based in Charlotte extracts lithium from mines in Australia and Chile which have large deposits of lithium. President Biden has signed an executive order calling for a review of supply chains for critical materials, including lithium as the US looks to build its own supply chains and become independent of supplies of metals from China. The lack of such supplies has become a strategic vulnerability for the US.  The growth of the electric vehicle industry and the efforts to reduce climate change emissions means higher demand for lithium. ...