LyrArc Article Gist
William Burns, a former Deputy Secretary of State, and a former ambassador to Russia 2005-2008, looks at the U.S. and European Union relationship with Russia following the expulsion of Russian spies in 2018. He says the U.S. and the European Union should take strong action, yet hopes this is a passing phase so that a healthier relationship can be built with Russia in the long run through diplomatic channels. Expressing views expressed by former president Obama and other experts, Burns says Russia lacks the alliances and broader support that the U.S. and European Union have, and is much smaller than the larger economies of the Western alliance. Under Putin a strong interventionist position has made Russia look better at home but may not be the best for Russia in the long run, says Burns.   Burns calls for stronger sanctions on the economic elite and business leaders under president Putin. Yet the sanctions have not deterred president Putin and a long run solution needs to be found, including issues such as Ukraine and issues that affect the Russian economy so that the change in relations since 2014 can be reversed. After the Berlin Wall collapsed hopes for integration of the Russian economy into the West were raised yet were not realized for Russia in the years following the Yeltsin government and the Russian economy suffered, first during that period and then during emerging market crises. Russian disillusionment with the West was followed by a more inward looking economy under Putin to help stabilize the Russian economy, accepting devaluation of the ruble to make the Russian economy more competitive in a period of low oil prices. Foreign investment collapsed following the Ukraine crisis but the Russian economy adapted to the shock from oil prices. This was followed by efforts to preserve these gains with an interventionist policy that made the Putin administration look better at home and win popular support with strong action in Crimea and Ukraine. This interventionist policy has played out too far with the meddling in U.S. and European elections creating a backlash that is now taking place. With the European Union, having a traditional policy of restraint and good relations with Russia, openly questioning Russian policy under Putin. Much of that period when Russia responded first to the collapse of the Berlin Wall with the collapse of the Russian economy, and in the following decade facing emerging market crises and collapse of foreign investment -which created a more inward looking Russia under Putin in his third term- is shown in Lyrarc.com. In some ways the Russian response in Ukraine, the effort to bolster popular support at home in elections, and the interventionist approach are linked to the efforts to find a Russian response to the economic crises Russia faced since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Seen in this way a shift to better relations is still possible as a broader perspective is gained.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Feeding America, a national network of food banks, finds that 37 million, or 1 in 8 Americans, needed emergency food assistance in 2009. Even in affluent suburbs like Long Island it found 280,000 sought assistance for food in 2009. And 39% of these were children under 18. Only 30% of those seeking help received food stamps suggesting that even that program is not reaching everyone that needs help.

LyrArc Article Gist
Everything is moving in the wrong direction in terms of sustaining growth according to Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute of International Economics. China's exports dependent economy will see a serious downturn as export markets in the USA and Europe dry up in 2009 as the deep recession takes shape. This could lead to growth rates going down to 6-7%.Other areas that propelled Chinese growth areinfrastructure investment and housing construction. Worried about rising housing prices the government last year out in place measures to dampen housing purchases, with tighter restrictions on second mortgages by banks and tighter lending for first mortgages. With house prices flat or falling now in Chinese cities many buyers are holding off for a better price in the future. Slower growth in housing will mean less demand for migrant labor and less demand for imports of cement and steel from other countries. China's lower imports of machinery, machine tools and heavy equipment for industry and infrastructure building will affect especially the German and Japanese economies. Germany has become the world's largest exporting nation in part by selling industrial equipment to China, its second most important market for machinery. In the first 7 months of 2008 these exports were still expanding at 20%. But these exports are likley now expanding at a rate of 10% and may slip to single digit growth in 2009, according to Olaf Wortmann, an economist with the VDMA engineering association. A good example of what is happening is the German manufacturers of textile machinery which derive 95% of their sales from overseas and mostly from China. These orders were down 42% in the first 7 months of 2008. With declining consumer demand in the US demand from China's exporting factories is declining. These figures and the accelerating slowdown in the US consumer markets suggest there will be a serious downturn in Chinese exports of textiles and other goods. The impact on German growth rates which are going below 2% in 2008 is to lead to 0% or declining growth in 2009. A similiar situation is ocurring for imports of heavy equipment from Japan. Orders of Japanese machine tools by China declined by 25% in September according to the Japan Machine Tool Builder's Association and Komatsu's shares have declined by 70% since their June peak. Part of the Chinese impact on global growth is mitigated by the fact that at market exchange rates China's economy is still only 6% of the world economy at market exchange rates and 10% at purchasing power parity. Chinese domestic consumer demand is $1.2 trillion for 2007 compared to the USA's $9.7 trillion, which also suggests how heavily China was dependent on the American consumer and how the missing American consumer will be hard to replace and the growth rates of 10-12% may be a thing of the past, with 6-7% being more realistic. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Oil prices are forecast to remain above $100 a barrel in 2012 because of higher social spending in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries after the democracy protests, and the threat of retaliation by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Iranian threats of retaliation for increased sanctions has embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts.

LyrArc Article Gist
Skepticism about GM's share price and recovery because of management turnover, a cooling off in the Chinese market to 8% growth from 30% in fourth quarter 2010, and fears that the incentives at $3300 per vehicle will again become the norm. GM had its third CEO since coming out of bankruptcy in 2009.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chrysler is beginnning the effort to cut dealership that aren't sellin enough cars. Note the figures for dealerships, GM 6900, Ford 4200, and Chrysler 3700, Toyota 1400 for market share, GM 23%, Ford 16%, Chrysler 14%, Toyota 16%, This comes to 300 delaers per market share point for GM 280 for Ford, 270 Chrysler, 90 for Toyota. Lower producing dealers and surplus dealers undercut prices of stronger dealers and everyone in general.

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Theresa May's Conservative party needs the 10 seats of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to have a slim 3 seat majority in Britain's 650 seat parliament. Yet many members of May's Conservatives oppose an agreement with the DUP which is seen as not similar in social views. The DUP is the party of Rev. Ian Paisley which was in conflict with the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland for many years. Former Conservative prime minister John Major says an alliance with the DUP would be in violation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. Under that agreement the UK and Irish governments stated they would have "rigorous impartiality" towards all the different groups in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein sees a new Conservative government with DUP support as preventing the power sharing agreement with DUP that brought peace to Northern Ireland. Complicating this further is the vote on Brexit with 56% opposed and 44% in favor in Northern Ireland. And the DUP wants a "frictionless border," an open border with Ireland so that it would not affect the way of life Irish people have enjoyed since the peace agreement. So that even as talks are supposed to begin this week on Brexit with the EU, Brexit is looking more and more in doubt. Negative impact on Britain's economy through increased uncertainty and rising prices, and increased participation of young people opposed to Brexit in the parliamentary election leading to the vote for Labor party of about 40% of voters, also contributes to this sentiment. (gist in 264 words, about 955 words in original article) ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The EBRD shifts its focus to Central Asian Republics and only has Bulgaria and Romania as European states that it works with. The need for patience and helping build the economic conditions to sustain democratic forms of life says its German head Thomas Mirow, formerly of the German Finance Ministry. He fears the twin pressures of higher food costs and fuel prices on fragile economies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Just as the drug industry is more getting more dependent on the government with the medicare drug benefit raising the retail drug purchases paid by government to 34% in 2006 from 28% in 2005, the industry is facing more governmental scrutiny, from the FDA, from Congress from the public, and during this election campaign. Rep .Rosa DeLauro, who heads the House appropriations subcommittee that has oversight over FDA funding compares the drug industry to the tobacco industry saying that it requires the same amount of scrutiny. At the same time the drug industry is aware of the changes in the public mood and the recent controversies over drug studies, such as the one on Vytorin and other controversy. It is initiating some voluntary changes, registering clinical trial results, submitting commercials to the FDA before they air, and under pressure from medical journals registering trials before they are performed. A new law will requires and its not clear whether the drug industry is dragging its feet and then making changes when there is increasing public pressure. This is the feeling of the medical journals like the Journal of the Medical Association and the New England Journal of Medicine. JAMA's editors will be keeping up this pressure as they have more articles showing how the drug industry manipulates data and the need for public skepticism of information that comes out of the drug industry. The New England Journal editors expressed the need to publish information that helps doctors get all the available information, and not just the information from the drug industry that makes the drug look better than it really is, such as the information and analysis it provided on antidepressant medications. The chairman of the energy and commerce investigations subcommittee Rep. Stupak, finds the advertising for drugs contains information that cannot be backed up and not true ethically, medically, or legally. As this reflects the public mood look for more investigations in Congress and investigative research by the journals. On the issue of importation of drugs from Canada there is bipartisan support as both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton support importation. Clinton supports legislation that allows the FDA to approve new generic versions of biotech drugs which would lower prices of biotech drugs. And with the US consumer budget facing strains in a recession there will be increasing pressure and demands for relief in the area of drug prices, especially for the elderly and uninsured and from corporate payors. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Alexandra Stevenson provides this insightful glimpse into a highly inflated property market. Microflats in Hong Kong of 275 square feet, smaller than a bedroom, sell for $722,000. Smaller flats of 165 square feet are planned by developers. Since 2003 property prices are up 300% in Hong Kong. Experts see another fall in prices similiar to the one in 2003 during the Asian financial crisis. Mainland Chinese investing in Hong Kong flats have never experienced a collapse in prices. Hong Kong mortgage rates are low, about 2%. Experts see a rise in U.S. interest rates affecting buyers, as Hong Kong interest rates are tied to U.S. interest rates. With low rates on savings accounts, savings are going into an highly inflated unsustainable property market. One estimate shows 41% of household wealth in China is tied up in the property market. A downturn in prices could lead to a large decline in consumer spending. Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute of International Economics sees China not immune to the kind of housing price collapse that hit the U.S., Spain and other countries in the last decade....

LyrArc Article Gist
Could high oil prices lead to real conservation in the US and lead to the US following Japan's lead in conservation. If this were to happen it would be a good thing. Union pacific is betting on more fuel efficient locomotives and operating trains in ways that conserve fuel. What if this happens everywhere in industry after industry. Would America's wasteful ways become a thing of the past? Some of this is likely to happen if not completely as oil prices have hit already and are likely to go up further. Still this shock may not as bad as previous ones as long asmoney going to Russia and the Middle East is reinvested in the US or Europe or Asia, in the global economy, as it liklely will be, and as long as the rise is gradual which it likely will be as its not a political shock like an embargo, aand as long as the rise is matched by conservation moves by American and European industry following the lead of Japan which also is likely to happen as industry after industry responds to the price increases with conservation and fuel efficiency moves of its own in terms of better technology and equipment and techniques of fuel usage something that extends to airplaners and cars. Also crucial to the reilient response to higher prices is a careful Fed policy that does not hike interest rates in response to the inflation in oil prices and this is also not likely to happen as Bernanke's own research has shown that he will be careful to respond to not adversely affect the global economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China Investment Corporation, China's sovereign wealth fund is expected to issue upto 28 billion in bonds to help recapitalize China's state owned banks. These banks face the prospect of increasing bad loans as a result of the hectic pace of bank lending in 2009-2010. Loans guaranteed by muncipal governments are estimated at 7.7 trillion yuan, or 17% of overall lending, about 50% of these loans face uncertainty in the event of falling housing prices, and 25% are bad loans. The recent IPO of Agricultural Bank of China raised funds, but the environment for raising money in this way does not look good, as information is spreading that these banks face large loan losses. The bonds from CIC would be picked up by state controlled companies. Yet these state controlled companies are engaging in the real estate speculation, as reported by David Barboza of the New York Times and Peter Coy of Business Week. In a down cycle things could get much worse as a state sovereign fund is selling bonds, state controlled companies would buy these bonds, and state controlled banks are expected to be recapitalized making a complete circle....

LyrArc Article Gist
Henry Ford, Eleanor Roosevelt and H.G. Wells slept on Simmons mattresses. Eleanor praised the virte of the Beautyrest brand. THe company is 133 years old starting in a small city in Wisconsin. The company has since 1991 been sold and resold to leveraged buyout firms and private equity firms and debt which was $164 million is now $1.3 billion. The recession has destroyed any chances of serious recovery and the debt has made the company's prospects dim and uncertain. THe employees have been devastated and risk losing more jobs. Along the way $750 million were made by the various private equity owners. Julie Creswell says that in many ways this mimicks the subprime mortgage boom. With easy money from banks, endowments and pension funds, private equity firms were using this money with little of their own to flip companies with reliable cash flows after taking on extra debt, at higher and higher prices. Question this raises is what sort of activity is best as a society for America, innovation, new products and building companies by investing in human capital, technology and research or risky investments, and Simmons type investing? See the link to Chapman....

LyrArc Article Gist
Average return on U.S. IPO's for 2011 is a loss of 18% for institutional investors getting in on day one according to Dealogic analysis of 23 IPO's. For small investors the losses are 34%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation slows to 3.2% for October 2023, and decelerates from 3.7% in the prior month. Moderate energy prices contributed, so did lower used car prices and lower airline fares. It is also broad based decline which makes it sustainable. Biden says- "I am fighting every single day for lowering costs to hardworking families." It reduces the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates further. Inflation in food, bakery products and fruits and vegetables was 0.2 percent and apartment rental at 0.5 percent, electricity at 0.3% making it truly broadbased. This points to major progress on inflation, that adds to gains in low unemployment that have not been seen for decades. Wage gains for workers after the UAW agreement are spreading to other companies and industries which provides cost of living relief for workers and families across the 51 states for 2024. Lowering inflation and increasing suppressed wages is the way out of the cost of living crisis facing Americans. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford will continue to face difficulties in the second half, and is closely watching the subprime market, consumers, and gas prices. Its expected to use up $5 billion in cash in 2007. But overseas the situation is much betterearning $764 million outside North America. And Ford Credit is projecting more than $1 billion in profits for the second half of 2007.

LyrArc Article Gist
Land reforms in China to improve rural incomes and increase agricultural production with larger farms to keep food price inflation down two key goals in today's China. And both long neglected in the headlong rush to industrialize and urban centred modernization which left a huge gap which now must be fixed that gap in incomes for the rural 700 million peopr in the countryside who have seen their incomes stagnat and the rural -urban gap widen with farmer protest against corrupt officials seizing land for factories exacerbating the situation for years. Only the 10-12% a year growth has kept the situation under some control as rural folk could depend on income from migrant labor or the young women who left the countryside to work in cities where factories for exports turned out goods for western markets. With this market in serious trouble in debt burdened western societies China may be looking at growth of half the previous rate down to 6%,and so this is move to change the focus to building a bigger domestic market through raising rural incomes as well as urban incomes and shift China's focus to the domestic and Asian markets like India and other Asian countries....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Saudi government announced sharp cuts in spending and subsidies to cut the deficit in 2016. The deficit in 2015 was about $98 billion or 367 billion riyals , according to Al Arabiya Saudi news channel. In 2016 the budget is designed to cut the deficit to $87 billion or 326 billion riyals. The 2016 budget is for 840 billion riyals, compared to 975 billion riyals in 2015. Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion could be exhausted at this rate by 2020, experts say. Actions being taken by the government include increasing the price of some grades of gasoline sold domestically by 50%, as subsidies are being cut. The drop in oil prices to about $35-$40 is hurting Russia, Saudis and Venezuela. The Saudis have increased defense spending for conflicts in Yemen, and in other areas, as they oppose Iran and Russia in the Iraq- Syria conflict.

LyrArc Article Gist
Gives good information on how the Saudi's price their oil.