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Alluring scenery but hollowing out. Rail station in Dunedin New Zealand looks like it is from the 19th or early 20th century. New Zealand wages are 27% lower than Australian wages in 2025. New Zealand's weak, economy cuts in public services in 2025 affect jobs and employment. New Zealand sees emigration of 69,000 for the year to Feb 2025, highest on record.  Australia has mining and huge demand from China and India for its coal to support it's economy. In a paradox black coal in the interior supports a healthy lifestyle with weather and sports in the coastal belt of Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, and further up the coastline in Perth and Adelaide. New Zealand life means higher grocery prices and less quality than Australia, it means health services are not as good, and the public services are being cut to reduce the deficit and borrowing. Most migration is to Auckland and towns in the interior look scenic such as Dunedin but are increasingly seeing people leaving for lack of prospects, lack of pay raises and high cost of living, poor public services. This is a cycle that was felt in 2002 and goes back a long way and is unlikely to change. ...

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Kyle Wingfield meets up with Robert Mundell, Nobel winner in 1999. What does he have to say now? He thinks the oil prices are on track and would reach $130 by 2020 with 3.5% inflation, starting with $34 a barrel in 1980 doubling to $68 in 2000 and doubling again to $136 in 2020. Today its already at $136 but he thinks it will settle down lower to about $100, so hethinks were not so far off track. On inflation he looks at the price of gold at$850 an ounce , and now its still about the same, with high inflation gold should be at $1500, so he does not see the public thinking high inflation is coming. He was in favor of the Reagan tax cuts and set the groundwork for this and aslo supported the euro. He believes the Bush tax cuts should be kept as it would be disastrous for the world economy. Mundell has always believed that there is a link between economic growth and lower tax rates. He advocates corporate tax rates of 25%. Tax rates went down to 28% under Reagan back up to 40% under Clinton and down to 35% under Bush. Hewould like to see a ceiling on marginal rates of 30%. He would like to see a fixed exchange rate so that there are not these large currency rate swings, the euro should be valued somehwehere between 90 cents to the euro to $1.30. The US has a growing population and better adoption of innovation with a younger population than Europe so he sees the USA as a leader in innovation and growth and the dollar or some new global currency should be formed for a global economy. Just as he supported the euro he supports a currency for Asia. He does not see overvaluing the Chinese currency as doing much good as he sees the Japanese economy hurt by the overvaluing of its currency after a period of Japoan bashing. He is an advisor to China on currency issues....

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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Ford says its new car sales in Europe declined by 16% in June even though auto sales in Europe declined by 1.3%. For the first half of 2012 Ford sales declined by 9.6%, and industry sales fell by 4.8%. The markets in Russia, Turkey and Romania are offsetting declines in other countries.

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CEO Norbert Reithofer who became head of BMW in September is pushing BMW in the direction of more collaborative work with other car companies. He has set as a goal collaborations in the areas of components, drive systems and modules. Daimler's new chief Dieter Zetsche s also rethinking how it approaches its business. One way to develop new technologies and purchase parts and components efficiently is to work with other companies who are striving to do the same things. Both CEO's see their companies as midsize manufacturers in a world of auto manufacturing where Toyota and VW, GM and Ford have the advantage of much larger sales over which to spread their research dollars, or to make efficient purchasing by using volume purchasing. Daimler is encourged by its participation in a combined effort in the area of hybrid technologies with BMW, GM and Chrysler, and the progress made in that area through collaborative effort. This is making both companies rethink their intense rivalry since the 1930's, one based in Stuutgart and the other in Munich. Both companies have good profits and as the environment gets harsher with steel prices rising, with demands from the public for tougher new auto emission and fuel efficiency stadards requiring allocating more dollars for R&D, a strong euro and a struggling US economy. The challenge they face is sustaining this profitability as it becomes more costly to operate in this environment. Both companies have appointed some of their talented executives to profitability teams which are working at developing more collaborative efforts....

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Apple reports a slowdown in iPhone sales, with a less than 1 percent in increase in sales, for fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, over the prior year quarter. Revenue is expected to decline by 11% for the quarter ending in March 2016, over the prior year, first such decline in 13 years. Analysts say Apple will have to reduce gross margins of about 40% to increase sales. Apple CFO Maestri says Apple increased prices in some markets because of the strong dollar. When the stronger dollar is excluded from results for the quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, sales revenue increased by 8% over prior year quarter, according to Apple. As Apple slows down its shares financial performance is stalled at about $100. Apple tried to present a different picture now that China sales are slowing down- it said that users had "engaged" with 1 billion Apple devices whether iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple TV, in the last 90 days, by downloading an app, song or movie. These services geneated $5.5 billion in revenues for the quarter ending in December, a 15% increase over prior year quarter....

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Why is Microsoft so concerned about Google's dominance in the search ad market? Microsoft could face a shrinking price of its Office suite of products which are installed not downloaded, as the whole industry shifts to downloaded software which is available either free or for a modest price with the software companies making money on advertising. Its entire model of extracting premium price on its software products which are installed on new computers or sold through stores is at risk as customers shift to the easily dowloadable software for things that Microsoft software now performs and as these software get better and more sophisticated. As it sees no way to penetrate search ad markets it is focussing on display ad markets. But experts do not see Microsoft having a good chance in the display market as both Yahoo and Google are also competing in this space vigorously. Meanwhile Microsoft stock which was about $54 in 2000 when Ballmer took charge is now stuck at $29 and has not done well throughout this period....

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Better balance sheets, higher resale values, the trend away from subprime financing, and a lineup of vehicles that give better mileage (even with trucks acounting for 50% of sales) with the shift to lighter crossover vehicles, will help Detroit automakers face higher gas prices. These factors should help prevent a replay of the very serious problems of 2008, when gas prices exceeded $4.00 a gallon and the U.S. faced a financial crisis. At that time in 2008 vehicle sales declined by 18% and truck sales were down by 25%, according to Credit Suisse.

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Evern though the Detroit carmakers initial quality as measured by J.D. Powers Initial Quality Survey is slightly higher than Japanese carmakers in pickup trucks, the Japanese carmakers still have a lead in the more popular cars and in crossovers. The Prius is made in a factory in Japan which ranks as one of the highest in quality. Quality is higher at plants in Japan for Toyota cars, and a bit lower here in the states for Toyota plants. Its on a par with Ford for the Toyota cars made in the USA. As the quality gaps shrinks to near zero between the quality of American and Japanese cars made in the USA, Toyota continues to maintain its edge in quality for its plants in Japan over both the Americans and the Germans. And the one carmaker that intends to surprise is Hyundai which surpasses Toyota, Honda, Ford and Chevy in quality and does this with a lower price. Consumers are noticing and making the switch, as Hyundai's market share is increasing. See Hyundai link. Here are some of the results. First the plants that produce the best quality, as measured by the J.D. Powers Initial Quality Survey. A survey of 80,900 cars between November 2008 and February 2009, for the first 90 days thses cars were driven, using the number of problems per 100 vehicles. All numbers refer to problems per 100 vehicles. Toyota plants in Japn that scored highest- Higashi-Fuji at 29 making Lexus SC and Toyota Corolla, Fuijimatsu at 30 making the Prius, Kyushu at 34 making the Lexus ES and Highlander. At the next level German plants, Bremen at 40 making the Mercedes Benz Classes- C, CLK, SL, and SLK. Daimler in E. London, S. Africa at 38, and BMW at 40 in Dinggolfing, Germany. And a cluster of Japanese and American plants in the USA that produce cars of comparable quality. Honda in E. Liberty Ohio at 41, making the Honda Civic, CRV and Element. GM at Oshawa, Ontario, at 42 making the Buick LaCrosse and Chevy Impala at 42. GM at Bowling Green, Kentucky at 43, and Toyota, Georgetwon, Kentucky making the Avalon and Camry at 43. What is notable from the last survey in this highly competitive market is the following. 1. Hyundai at 91 problems per 100 vehicles surpasses Honda at 95. Better quality at a lower price, so its no wonder Hyundai is gaining market share and is the new carmaker gaining a presence in the USA. 2. Toyota is at 101, Ford at 102, Chevy at 103, so the difference now in carmakers quality is perception, perception, perception. Its about lifestyle, what you like to be associated with and what you want your friends and neighbors to think about you in your choice of car, younger buyers who are the next generation that makes or breaks your business, the new trendy things among younger people, and design that appeals to them. 3. VW is at 112. So even though there is aggressive marketing and VW is picking up some market share with the Jetta, it still lags slightly in quality. 4. The American car makers still lack consistent quality. You have the Buick at 117, GMC at 116. Ford with Lincoln at 129. The Koreans with Kia at 112. 5. Chrysler is at the bottom of the list. Dodge at 134, Chevy at 136, Jeep at 137. THe lack of resources, changes in management and ownership, and the distractions of bankruptcy and dealership closings, and most of all dire lack of resources including the layoff of large parts of its engineering talent, all hurt. 6. GM sold Saab, Ford sold Land Rover and Jaguar. The neglect of Saab shows with Saab at 138, and Ford's distraction during the last 3 years shows with Jaguar at 134 and Land Rover at 150. also. 7. In summary Ford has done well overall, Toyota is coming up short in the USA and resting on its laurels, GM has a perception gap with younger buyers, Hyundai looks like a winner with both price and quality, and VW has work to do. ...

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Much of the inflation reduction actions were taken by the US Federal Reserve as the central bank of the Nation and by president Biden in passing the Inflation Reduction Act and investing in growing the economy. All this may be jeopardized by the action of a Trump administration limiting the independence of the central bank. The support for crypto currency by Trump creates more risks to the economy. Additional risks are posed by the views expressed in Project 2025 on the US central bank. It is stated that the financial stability mandate be removed, that employment stability be removed and its regulatory role be effectively taken out. A commission to be appointed to look at alternatives to the central banking role of the US Fed. There are inflationary episodes and banking crises yet they stem from poor behaviour of banks as private players (2009 financial crisis) and price gouging by companies and firms and are not because of the central bank. There are also episodes of poor management  which reflected the culture of that period such as Libertarian culture under Greenspan. As in management in private industry firms good or poor managers make adifference. The institution created of the central bank around 1910 comes from the crises that happened in the period before that  and how it evolved into its postwar role. This includes the Great Depression when it did not have its regulatory, financial stability and employment role. Tampering with the basic structure that has evolved over 100 years of experience would cause lasting damage to the US economy and expose it to hidden risks. This would put a severe burden on the Nation after the loss of one million lives in the pandemic that just happened, the cost of living crisis, and the severe impact that decades of loss of local manufacturing have placed on communities across America- which both the US Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell and president Biden have fought so hard to tackle. ...

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Yellen tells the governor of Guangdong that China's huge subsidies for solar, EV and other industries disrupts "the level playing field" America needs. In all previous administrations  of both parties American economic ministry heads stayed silent or said it in a way that they were ignored. A culture of government staying out spread like wild fire under Reagan and "free to choose" advocates such as Friedman who did not realize the grave dangers to American manufacturing and its workers inside America, and to the world's other manufacturing capable nations such as India with overconcentration in one location. It was America's misfortune that economists and business leaders in the US were not listening enabling China to ignore this. By offering huge government subisidized incentives China and Taiwan shifted manufacturing away from the US in semiconductors, solar, EV's. It started with Apple and is still going on with Tesla. Today economists such as Yellen say economic resilience and supply chains are at risk before they said it lowered cost for consumers and failed to wake up when advanced technologies were at stake, as economists never trained in manufacturing had no knowledge of how it works with learning curves and knowhow that is built over decades, once lost hard to regain. The message fellow Americans is that trust your instincts and common sense, and trust observation which is what the Renaissance in the 15th century was all about and which put Europe ahead of Asia, to the great misfortune of Asia. Japan, China, have learned these lessons well, America as an immigrant nation is different from Europe, and must use its good sense to keep open the opportunities for its people and workers, and the people and workers of all nations that are manufacturing capable. Yellen said- "Direct and indirect government support is currently leading to production capacity that significantly exceeds China's domestic demand, as well as what the global market can bear...Overcapacity can lead to large volumes of exports at depressed prices, and it can lead to overconcentration of supply chains, posing a risk to global economic resilience,"    ...

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In the period approaching the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of China and its role in the revival of China after centuries of decline, confrontation with European and Japanese invasions, and poverty, China is taking a long view of Hong Kong protests. Carrie Lam stated China was too conscious of Hong Kong and China's international reputation and was pursuing "the long game," in dealings with Hong Kong protesters and its relations with the U.S. and Europe. This approach sees the need for China to create a positive image as it seeks to settle the trade dispute with the U.S. that hurts China's efforts for improving the standard of living and continuing its modernization. This means keeping relations with the European Union on a good footing as it pursues tit for tat tariffs and resumes talks with the U.S. without giving up what it sees as its sovereignty for industrial policy and trade matters.  A new sign of this is changing the focus of Hong Kong protests from the Chinese government to Hong Kong tycoons who China says have created the housing shortages through their policies. By not releasing land they own for building new affordable housing and driving up prices because of the greed for returns the tycoons in real estate are asked to take some of the responsibility for the mess in Hong Kong and anger of protesters. The social and economic tensions have contributed to anger of protesters for which the government has become a easy target says China as it looks for ways to tackle the issues underlying the protests and separate the negotiable issues from the issue of "sovereignty" or China's right to decide its internal affairs. In the light of the Communist party's struggles against European colonialists and Japan's Imperial Army, "sovereignty" is a sensitive topic in China.  As part of this approach Carrie Lam, Hong Kong leader held a Chinese version of Town hall meeting to listen to the complaints of Hong Kong leaders for the first time after weeks of protests, to let people vent out their feelings and complaints.    ...

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How inflation is affecting people who thought themselves to be in the middle class like postal workers and teachers and public sector emplyees. Wages are stagnant in many parts of the European economy as inflation picks up and the price of basic necessities like bread and fueling the family car cost more as the year progresses. A study by the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin finds that the broad middle of the German workforce defined as workers earning 70 to 150% of the median income shrunk to 54% of the population in 2007 from 62% in 2000. Something is clearly going on with wages not keeping up with inflation and it does not look good just as a global slowdown that started in the USA is affecting the rest of the world. In Britain striking teachers closed schools as proposed wage raises of 2.5% were not enough to meet the rising cost of living, with food up 7% and oil up 20% since this time last year. German workers have already staged a series of strikes for a greater share in the increased wealth after years of making concessions and the mood in Germany is that a lot of the senior business people are making too much at the expense of workers who are being asked to sacrifice too much....

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Treatment costs with Praluent for cholesterol control are extremely high at $14,600 a year.

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Ford Motor Company's results in the second quarter of 2013 show sales up 15% to $38.1 billion. Profits were up to $1.23 billion from the $1.04 billion for the same quarter in 2012. Most of the profit comes from N. American market with $2.33 billion pretax profit in the second quarter of 2013, increasing from $2.01 billion in the same quarter 2012. Earnings in Asia were $177 million, after a $66 million loss in 2012 for the same period. Losses in Europe were down to $348 million from $404 million in the second quarter of 2012. Vehicles with a common platform strategy such as the Kuga in European market and the Escape in the U.S. market are part of Ford's strategy for maximum coverage worldwide are helping increase sales. Building of 7 new plants in China under a $5 billion investment plan and a 8th plant under construction have helped increase sales in China. As a result car sales in China increased 47% in the first half of 2013 to 407,721 vehicles, in a late effort to catchup with VW, GM and Toyota. Overall sales growth in the automobile industry in the U.S. provides about 20% of growth in U.S. GDP, according to Ford economists....

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Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

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Difficulty attracting foreign investors to India's bond market. After adjusting for consumer inflation India's three month Treasury bill pays a negative 2.3%, according to Citi. Official foreign funds data for India shows as of Dec. 16, 2013, that foreigners used up only 32% of the quotas assigned to them in the bond market. If they were to use up the entire quota this would be $81 billion compared to the deficit for the year ending March of $50 billion. Foreign investors also have to deal with the risk that the currency could depreciate as in the summer of 2013, for which they need higher interest rates. The RBI increased interest rates twice since Rajan's taking office in September 2013. During 5 months of 2013 foreigners made a net withdrawal of $12.9 billion.

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The experience of Nestle and other consumer product companies selling at low price points in Indonesia and other developing countries.

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Keith Bradsher visits Guangzhou, China, just as prime minister Wen Jiabao tells the National People's Congress that China is changing its priorities from high growth to sustainable development. As recently as 2007 GDP growth reached 14%! The minimum wage is expected to rise 13% each year under the five year plan. Even with the increase in wages owning an apartment is unaffordable in Guangzhou- a 1000 square feet apartment costs upward of $300,000, showing the extent to which the bubble in real estate prices affects young people who cannot afford to own an apartment. A new graduate with marketable skills such as computer engineering makes about $6000 a year, putting owning an apartmet beyond reach. Another change he notices today is that during visits to construction sites he does not see flood lit sites at night. This used to be the case because builders were scrambling to build. With government policies discouraging the property bubble there is no longer a need for work at night. The focus now has shifted to build low income housing....

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There are more women drivers in the U.S. than men. In 2011 50.5% of licensed drivers were women. This is an increase from the 39.6% figure in 1963, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Part of the reason for this is the decline in young men getting drivers licenses, and the larger share of older drivers with more women in that age group. Even though women still earn less than men the numbers are increasing, with women making 81 cents to every dollar made by men in 2012, increasing from 62 cents in 1979. In educaton levels achieved women are doing better- Labor Dept figures show 30% of women born in the early 1980's with bachelors degrees, and only 22% for men. That suggests their earning prospects will continue to increase. Studies by R.L. Polk show women prefer more fuel efficient cars. A study by RDA Group shows women buying the average new car in 2012 at a price 12% less than the average car bought by men. Only two of the top ten cars purchased by women in 2012 were U.S. brands- the Ford Escape at No.7 and the Chevy Equinox at No. 9. This shows that Ford, GM and Chrysler have more work to do to attract women customers....

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Studies by Mexico's Interior Ministry show that 62% of the $23 billion in remittances to Mexico by Mexicans living in the U.S. go to the lower middle class. As migration to the U.S. diminishes to zero Mexicans who are illegal aliens in the U.S. are returning to Mexico as small entrepreneurs using earnigs made in the U.S.. This offers them a chance for upward mobility and a return to families that they never had in the U.S., and is aiding the growth of a Mexican middle class. About 12 million Mexicans, or 15% of Mexico's labor force lives legally or illegally in the U.S., according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Experts say that in the first 3-5 years remittances go to help their families, after 7 years the money goes into savings and investment fueling growth of small towns such as Santa Maria in Mexico. About half of Mexico's 112 million people have family living in the U.S., which is having an influence on atttitudes and ways of thinking of the lower middle class that emigrated to the U.S.and is now returning to the country. Other factors are reinforcing the trends such as the lower price of consumer goods with the entry of retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco into Mexico. Nestle, P&G, and Unilever, all sell at low price points in Mexico. The government's effort to setup a basic safety net subsidizing schooling, health care and food has also helped in this direction. Rapid change in demographics in all of Latin America, including Mexico with a shift to smaller families is creating new opportunities to invest in children for better educational opportunities and working lives....