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Two realities are affecting exchanges. One is that trading commodities and derivatives is a $600 trillion business worldwide and is more profitable than trading in corporate shares. This shows in the value of ICE and NYSE in the stock market. In April 2011 ICE was valued at $1.5 billion less than NYSE, in Dec 2012 ICE was valued at $4 billion more that NYSE as it makes its bid to merge with NYSE. The other is that the Dodd-Frank financial system overhaul in the U.S. after the 2008 financial crisis has created a new model for derivatives trading providing advantages to regulated electronic exchanges and clearinghouses that handle derivatives trades with transparency. Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO of ICE, the IntercontinentalExchange, which handles derivatives trading through its clearinghouse operations, says: "For the past decade, our solutions made our markets increasingly electronic and increasingly clear. Today, financial reform is imposing that vision on many markets through a rule-making process." Bart Chilton, a member of the CFTC which regulates derivatives trading says Dodd-Frank legislation supports the business model of derivatives exchanges. This is especially true for Mr Sprecher and ICE. Sprecher has a good relationship with regulators with whom he talks directly, and is supportive of CFTC efforts to close loopholes as he is confident he can make money as long as the rules are clear. His confidence stems from his model which is technology based from day one, with its own clearinghouse and technology based transparency of the ICE data vault, information it shares with regulators. Sprecher stumbled upon this opportunity. He is an executive in the power industry. Working on developing power plants Sprecher found it was difficult for power firms to hedge investments in energy with financial contracts because there was no well organized, clear and transparent market for such contracts. This he set out to do by buying a little know exchange in Atlanta for buying and selling electricity, later getting the the backing of BP, and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, to form ICE in 2000. Banks liked the idea of a having an organized clear place to buy and sell derivatives in oil and other commodities, and having an alternative to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in futures trading. Swaps trading under Dodd Frank supervision is converting to old style futures contracts where there is less competition for ICE's futures trading creating new opportunity. ICE setup its own clearinghouse, and acquired the Clearing Corporation, which was the base for a derivative called credit-default swap. To make derivatives trading transparent and reduce systemic risk Dodd-Frank legislation required exchanges to provide information to data warehouses which would then share the information with regulators. ICE setup its own data warehouse to do this called ICE Trade Vault. Dood-Frank rules envisioned the formation of clearinghouses and exchange such a ICE to provide a clear process, transparency and reduce systemic risk in derivatives trading. ICE under Sprecher by making this vision its own and using technology has created new opportunity. ...

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The 129 page internal report on what caused the trading losses of $6 billion at the London based investment unit of JP Morgan Chase bank. The report shows the trading was intended to offset losses of $100 million. Instead the trading assumed large proportions and supervisors ignored the risks, management showed lax oversight. This type of situation occurs in other industries. The costcutting at BP and suppliers resulting in the Gulf Oil Spill and the Toyota costcutting saved small amounts by creating large risks that threatened the companies, with bankruptcy in BP's case and loss of confidence of the customer base in Toyota's case. They also reflected years of costcutting that were showing up in smaller problems that remained unrecognized. BP refinery fires occurred for lack of adequate maintenance. Problems were already developing at JP Morgan Chase with managment changes at the London unit leading to poor oversight and complacency of top management, a culture that took undue risks even as management remained confident in its strategies....

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The "Burning Platform" memo by CEO Stephen Elop, seeks to confront Nokia with the reality of what is happening, as it has fallen years behind competitors who have completely changed the space Nokia was in. Apple's iPhone has redefined the space for smartphones and Apple now owns the high end market. In 2008, Apple's market share in the $300+ price range was 25%, by 2010 it was 61%. Newcomer Android has in 2 years created a platform that by attracting application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers, is winning the mid-range down to 100 euros. And in 2008, MediaTek provided complete reference designs for phone chipsets, so that Chinese manufacturers in Shenzen could produce phones at an astonishing pace. They now own the low end of the market, producing an estimated one third of the phones sold globally. A crtical part of the memo is about ecosystems. He says it is no longer about hardware and device to device competition, but about ecosystems that include not just hardware and software. It includes developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and so on. And Elop says the decision confronting Nokia, is how to build, catalyse or join an ecosystem....

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Over $65 billion invested in 2014 by German companies to acquire American companies with a global presence, including TRW and Dresser Rand.

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A shakeout for manufacturers in the solar industry is developing in 2011-2012, as prices of solar components drop sharply. There is slowing growth for solar products in 2012. Seven solar power manufacturers have filed for bankruptcy or insolvency in 2011, including two German companies Solar Millenium and Solon SE, and Solyndra LLC of the U.S. Debt exceeds market capitalization for the 10 largest publicly traded solar companies. A major reason is the subsidies offered by governments in Europe, the U.S. and China, which resulted in a glut in manufacturing capacity and falling prices. Chinese banks encouraged by the Chinese government have given $43 billion in credit facilities to Chinese renewable energy companies, according to Bloomberg Energy Finance. Prices of solar panels at $1.60 per megawatt in 2010, dropped to 90 cents per megawatt in 2011. Another problem is slowing demand. In Europe banks are reducing funding. Installations doubled for solar energy in Germany in 2010, and dropped 29% in 2011, according to Jefferies. Germany is the largest market for solar energy in the world....

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GM shares have fallen to $32 by April 2011, having dropped by 13.5%. Ford Motor shares have dropped by 9%. All automobile manufacturers have been affected by rising oil prices. And the government's plans to sell all of its GM shares this summer at a loss create additional uncertainty about the value of GM stock. A sense that the IPO roadshow for GM last summer may have oversold GM and created expectations that may not be fulfilled.

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Mexico's President appointed Carstens as Central Bank chief replacing Ortiz, who had held a strict line against inflation bring in down to 4% even as Mexico's economic growth declined in 2009 with a 7% drop in GDP. Ortiz differed with President Calderon and saw his mandate as acting strctly to keep inflation under control. Now Calderon is emphasizing job creation and growth. He appointed Social Developmet Minister Cordero to the post of Finance Minister. Until now Mexican Presidents including predecessor Vicente Fox relied on technolcrats to run financial positions.

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Anglo American responds to declining commodity prices and the slowdown in China with deep cuts of 53,000 jobs from its 151,000 workforce. Some of the jobs will be layoffs and other job cuts will be through sale of mines. In Australia mining employment is down 13% in the 2d quarter of 2015 over prior year. Anglo American plans to sell over a quarter of assets in the downsizing. BHP has spun off over ten mines into a separate company called South32. American Pittsburgh based company Consol Energy says it will no longer provide guaranteed health insurance to retired workers. Anglo American is one of the hardest hit companies. It had losses of $3 billion for the first half of 2015, and needs $1.5 billion in cost cutting to become profitable again.

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There is deep distrust of the Japanese government on the safety of nuclear reactors and a sense that the regulatory system has failed. In the most recent development, Osaka's mayor Toru Hashimoto, is withholding local approval for starting up 2 nuclear reactors at the Ohi plant, near Osaka. The 2 reactors passed simulated stress tests and were expected to be up and running, but public mistrust of the tests led to Hashimoto holding back on approval. Hashimoto was able to do this because Osaka is the largest shareholder in Kansai Electric Power. Hashimoto says he not against nuclear power, but against the top down regulatory system which works closley with power plant companies to protect their interests, with very little transparency on decisions and methods.

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Mexico's economy grew at 1.34% in the third quarter of 2011, according to the national statistics institute. Annual growth is estimated at 4% for 2011. The war against organized drug trafficking in Mexico cost the economy one percentage point of economic growth, according to estimates by BBVA Bancomer, Mexico's largest bank. Mexico received $20 billion in foreign investment in 2011, about the same as in 2010. Cars and aerospace have drawn large foreign investment. Mazda will invest $500 million on a new plant in central Mexico. Honda says it will spend $800 million on a second Mexican plant. In recent years with higher costs in China, higher transport costs, and a weaker peso with a stronger yuan, Mexico is becoming more competitive with China as a manufacturing investment location. The younger workforce, low inflation and technical education schooling, offer Mexico additional advantages. Mexico is the second largest manufacturer of flat screen television sets, and is now the fourth largest location for outsourced IT such as call centers. Axa CEO, Henri Castries, and Siemens CEO, Louise Goeser, have very favorable views of doing business in Mexico. Siemens sees sales increasing by double digits through 2015, and has located one of three global R&D centers in the state of Queretaro. Goeser says many parts of Mexico are safer than parts of the U.S. A large part of the violence is concentrated in a few states, and in border cities like Juarez, and affects smaller businesses more than the large manufacturing enterprises of overseas companies. As a result it is as if there were several economies in Mexico, with foreign enterprises largely insulated from the violence. ...

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As the U.S. population ages and grows at a slower pace the demand for automobiles is likely to peak in 2013-2014, and moderate in subsequent years. Automakers need to be vigilant about adding manufacturing capacity to avoid the problems faced in the last decade when sales and profits declined.

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The Russian economy gets an exceptional boost with the behaviour of ruble currency separating from the oil prices. Russia benefits from higher oil prices at the same time as it benefits from a weaker ruble. The ruble has declined 15% since April after more sanctions on Russia. The revenue earned in dollars converts into more rubles for imports and other financing for the Russian economy. At the end of 2017 a barrel of oil brought in 3,835 rubles for Russian sellers, when converted into rubles from U.S. dollars. In October 2018 each barrel brings in 5,262 rubles, an increase of 40%.  Russia deftly managed its emerging market crisis with lower ruble following the crisis in Ukraine by adapting its economy to a lower ruble, lowering imports and using import substitution. Initially Russia split with OPEC and Saudis to produce oil all out, but by 2018 with the Saudi economy hurting and Russia feeling the impact of lower oil prices, an OPEC agreement with Russia has pushed prices higher with production limits. Earlier adaptation by 2016 to the lower ruble, further decline of the ruble in 2018 with sanctions by U.S. for Russian interventions in other countries including the U.S. election meddling, have combined with higher oil prices to strengthen the Russian economy. Russian private and government debt held by foreign investors has fallen since 2016 to 32% in the first quarter, according to Societe Generale. This means Russia is less sensitive to foreign investor exit from the country with political and economic winds changing. Russia's current account surplus increased to $18.3 billion in the first quarter of 2018, up from $14.6 billion in the prior quarter. A weaker ruble has translated into more inflation which reached 5.5% at the end of 2017, above 4% target. Russia's central bank made quarter point increase to 7.5% for the interest rate in September 2017. Overall the management of the emerging market crisis since 2016 as Russia responded to NATO expansion and adopted its own policy is remarkable considering the damage from earlier emerging market crises. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and even India are feeling the impact of the current emerging market crisis, each with its own version of the crisis- Argentina with dollar denominated debt, Brazil lacking money in the budget after high pensions, and India with higher energy costs and weaker rupee.   ...

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The Indian rupee reached a low of 58.98 in currency markets on June 11, 2013. The Indian government increased the import tax on gold and the central bank RBI tightened the availability of credit for gold imports. Oil and gold imports were drivers for increasing India' large current account deficit to 6.7% of GDP in the 4th quarter of 2012.

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Public opposition in the summer of 2012 to the restarting of nuclear plants by prime minister Noda. A huge rally was held in central Tokyo with about 100,000 protesters.

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U.S. president Obama invited NYT's columnist Thomas Friedman to the White House for an interview on Saturday afternoon April 4, 2015. Here Friedman gives president Obama's response to his questions, and Obama's concerns about the heated rhetoric in the U.S. and Israel on the negotiations with Iran detracting and distracting from his key goals of protecting U.S. interests and Israel. On the Sunni states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Obama points out that there are some tough conversations needed about changes inside their societies which pose a greater threat to the governments than Iran. Obama says he understands perfectly that Israel and the Jewish people after their experience of the last hundred years are determined to not let Iran develop a nuclear weapon, and their right to be concerned that the agreement could let Iran clandestinely develop one. Obama says the verification is extensive and covers any facility in Iran, any suspicion about secret facilities, yet it leaves the subsequent decisions if Iran created difficulties, to a international body over which the U.S., UK, France, have no control. This is a principal issue for critics of the negotiated agreement. No mention is made of why Iran simply discarded the option of sending the atomic material to Russia to be processed into nuclear rods for the Bushehr nuclear plant built by Russia only a few days before the final outline was developed. And why the U.S., with allies Germany, France, UK and Japan, did not offer the Iranians an economic aid package if needed in return for the billions Iranians invested for that atomic material, to ensure that the atomic materials are shipped out of the country- to create a nuclear agreement that would be credible to all parties. The economic aid would benefit Iran modernize its oil industry, including refining operations, meet basic import needs, and provide tangible proof to the Iranian people of our best intentions for the future, that president Obama strongly espouses in the interview. The interview does show the quandary president Obama faces in Iran for strong action, that is a result of failed policies with Iran since the Eisenhower administration's intervention 1953 during the Cold War that displaced the elected government of Mosaddegh in Iran and setup the Shah's regime in 1956, the support of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in the war against Iran, which Obama mentions in this intervew. In the light of the repeated failures of the U.S. policies a Democratic party leader faces increasing reservations for taking strong action against Iran's development of nuclear weapons capabilities, preferring to exhaust every diplomatic channel, and take risks in the hope that time will give the Iranian people an opportunity to to reintegrate in the global community and pursue the peaceful development of nuclear energy. This strain in president Obama's thinking is evident throughout the interview with Friedman. Other aspects of president Obama's policy in the Middle East shared in the interview are about supporting the Sunni states in some areas, and Iran in some areas, at the same time as the nuclear issue is "put in a box" and separated from the regional conflicts. Friedman presents this as the Obama doctrine, yet it appears to be coming after a series of improvisations in foreign policy following a failure to act in 2011-2013, when the "once in a lifetime" opportunities presented by the Arab Spring were not taken up by the Obama administration, leading to the region's current disintegration....

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A major shift in foreign investment may be taking place as the 2014 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum takes place in May 2014. Russian policy in Ukraine and tensions with the U.S. and Germany could lead to a shift in investment to other emerging market countries. China's tensions with Japan could lead to a similiar shift of Japanese foreign investment. At the same time India has elected a new government with an absolute majority and an overwhelming mandate from young people to accelerate development. The new government under the BJP party's Modi has a decade of experience attracting foreign investment in western India. Indonesia, Vietnam, Africa and other emerging market countries, could benefit from the shift in investment. Investment could also return to the home countries with lower labor costs in Southern Europe, lower labor/energy/transport costs in North America. For Russia the debate at the St Petersburg Economic Forum was about pursuing one of three policy paths with some riskier than others, or some combination also risky and uncertain- depending on state banks and oil windfall funds, increasing ties with Asian countries, continuing on the current path with lower foreign investment and continued capital outflows. The failure to use the time wisely to diversify the oil based economy which could have been better accomplished in an economy not overly dependent on crony capitalism and centralized economy, both current characteristics, will affect future progress. A key weakness for Russia compared to China is the centralization under one person Putin, more so in the third term. In China the two man team Keqiang and Jinping is part of a larger team chosen by consensus and negotiation and part of a rotational scheme. It has senior leaders who initiated the changes to a market driven economy in the nineties determined to see China on track....

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By May 2015 the Russsian ruble had recovered to 50 to the dollar from the low of 80 to the dollar in 2014. In August 2015 the ruble declined to 70 to the dollar as oil prices dropped below $40 per barrel. GDP growth showed a decline of 4.6% for the economy in the 2nd quarter of 2015. The ruble has lost close to 50% of its value in 2015 compared to the prior year.