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How will countries like India generate jobs when technology enables manufacturing and other activity to do work with fewer and fewer people. Even Hon Hai in China is shifting work to robots. Technological progress is leaving more people unemployed and widening income gaps with the benefits going to a few people, says the Economist in this research based essay. It will require carefully managed governance to invest in infrastructure, raise skills of less skilled workers through education, and wage subsidies for those left behind to ensure our current system works in the future.

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Who is Ed Whitacre? What is he like and where is he from? Ed Whitacre headed Southwestern Bell or SBC, which he merged with AT&T. Bored as a retiree in San Antonio after leaving AT&T, he took the job at GM. He golfs, wishes and hunts with his chocolate Labrador retriever at a ranch near his house in San Antonio. He is impatient by nature and likes to see things done. Managers who worked with him at Southwestern Bell say while they were working on day to day business, Whitacre would be the one thinking ahead, trying to figure out how to compete in the future, and the things that were likely to happen in the changing environment. For a smaller Bell he saw that it was simply whether his Bell would be acquired or whether he would acquire other Bell companies. He is a hands-on guy who like to do things himself, like running a bulldozer around his ranch, one of the things Whitacre likes to do. His beginnings are in small town Texas. The place is a sleepy railroad town called Ennis, Texas, where for 50 years his father was a locomotive engineer. Whitacre says his father had never finished high school, and he did not want Whitacre working for the railroad. Both his parents insisted that he get acollege degree. Whitacre went to Texas Tech in Lubbock, Texas, because the tution was only $75, and landed a job at Southwestern Bell in 1963 as a facility engineer. And he stayed with the company all the way- with 19 moves living in Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas- till it became the new AT&T. Frost, a retired San Antonio banker and a member of Southwestern Bell's Board in 1990 when Whitacre became CEO, says Whitacre started from the bottom, and literally, even climbing telephone poles. So it isn't surprising that this guy walks around the GM Renaissance Center, talks to GM employees, tries out a Taco at the Food Court at the Renn center (says its OK but not like Texas tacos), and uses all elevators like everybody else, unlike GM executives who equiped elevators so they could bypass floors. And he isn't hesitant to wear jeans and a sweat shirt while visiting a factory, which he says is all the clean clothing he had at the hotel. Now he has an apartment. Works 14 hours a day, 5-6 days a week, and has his phone ringing just when he hopes to leave town to escape for a weekend. ...

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Hernando De Soto, a prominent economist, heads the Institute for Liberty and Democracy. He has an intimate knowledge of the workings of the Egyptian economy, and describes the socio-economic marginalization of large parts of Egyptian society as Economic Apartheid. Simply put Egypt has fallen behind the times, way behind the economic progress in large developing countries.The Institute was hired by the Egyptian government in 1997, with the financial support of the US Agency for International Development, to look into what reforms were needed. It presented its 1000 page report in 2004- after years of work involving 120 Egyptian and Peruvian technicians, participation of 300 local leaders and interviews with thousands of ordinary people- to the Egyptian cabinet. The then Finance Minister Hassanein supported it and the cabinet approved it. What followed was a cabinet shakeup, and blocking of any reforms by hidden interests wanting to protect the status quo. De Soto's objective was to find out how many people were marginalized in Egypt, and how much of the economy operated outside the legal system- small business that did not have the protection of property rights or access to normal business tools and credit, that makes businesses grow. He found that 9.6 million people were employed in this sector operating "extralegally" with no protections. This being the largest sector of employment in Egypt. His action plan was intended to remove the legal impediments to these people and businesses urban and rural, so that they could grow. He says the value of these businesses outside legal protections is $248 billion or 30 times larger than the total value on the Cairo stock exchange, and 55 times greater than all the foreign direct investment in Egypt since 1800 including Suez Canal and Aswan Dam. De Soto says that because of burdensome, discriminatory and bad laws it takes 500 days to open a small bakery, getting a legal title on a vacant piece of land would take 10 years of red tape. This barrier of bad laws, poorly trained bureaucrats, inertia of the status quo, prevents people from legalizing their property and business. As a result whereas one of these types of small businesses is now India's largest company called Reliance Industries, and another Infosys is the second largest software company, most Egyptian enterprises are stuck being small and relatively poor, and do not generate jobs for the demographic surge of young people. De Soto's point is that Egypt will need good leadership to pull off this task of legal reform, and democracy alone will not be enough. Empowering the large majority of the Egyptian people operating outside the legal protections will mean giving property rights for $400 billion of assets, De Soto says. And this would unlock an amount of capital hundreds of times larger than what foreign direct investment and aid has brought to the country....

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...

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Baby boomers born in 1955 had 2 more years of schooling than their parents by age 30. By contrast baby boomers born in 1980 had 8 months more schooling than their parents by age 30. This is the shown in a study by Harvard professors Goldin and Katz. A big part of the problem is the high dropout rates at some high schools in the U.S. Another part of the problem which is growing today is the high cost of tution discouraging students from going to college, and the large student debt being borne by parents. Student debt reached $1 trillion in the U.S. by 2012.

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Foxconn announces salaries for workers would increase by 16-25% to about $400 a month before overtime. Foxconn plans to reduce overtime. Foxconn is a major supplier in China for Apple Computer.

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Samuelson says the bill in the U.S. Senate is symbolic because it allows companies to cite the undervalued renminbi as an illegal subsidy and have the Commerce Department impose duties on Chinese products. This would have to be done on a case by case basis, making it largely ineffective in dealing with the large trade deficit with China. He also cites the differences among economists that show a range between 1 million and 2.8 million jobs lost. The 2.8 million jobs estimate is from the Economic Policy Institute for the period 2001-2010. The 1 million is an estimate for 1990-2007, which estimates a loss of quarter of all manufacturing jobs. By WTO rules subsidies that are not targeted at specific industries or firms are allowed, according to lawyers. Which means China could appeal to the WTO, and impose retaliatory duties. In the meantime the trade deficit with China, with imports of $364 billion in 2010, and $86 billion in exports, would remain largely unaffected. This is the reason some Senators, including Republican Orrin Hatch (Utah), see this move as political posturing by President Obama and the Democrats, because the administration has no new proposals to address the trade deficit and the gradual erosion of America's manufacturing base. Samuelson cites Arvind Subramanium of the Peterson Institute, and his book "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance." Subramanium says what is at stake is not a temporary imbalance in world trade a happened with Japan in the 1980's, but a gradual shift to a system of trade in which China has preferential access to raw materials (oil, grain, minerals), subsidizes exports in new industries as it moves upscale from shoes and textiles to automobiles, aircraft and alternative energy, and changes the very nature of the global trading system as it becomes the dominant trading nation in the world. By Subramanium's estimate China's share of global trade increased from 1.6% to 9.8% in the 2 decades from 1990 to 2010. In two more decades he estimates China could increase this to 15% of global trade, significantly larger than the U.S. In a response to Congressmen, businessmen and policymakers wary of starting a trade war, Samuelson says there already is a trade war as a "fixed" system of trade undermines America's manufacturing and industrial base. The only difference being that today only one side is fighting that war, and America is slow to grasp the implications or its policymakers are clueless how to respond....

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China is not experiencing high unemployment in 2012 the way it did in 2009. The lower growth rate of 7-8% is not having an adverse impact on unemployment. This makes it possible for the stimulus this time to be much smaller. There is rising upward pressure on wages. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC and WSJ, average annual wages at private sector manufacturing companies in current U.S. dollars was up 5% in 2009, 16% in 2010, and 20% in 2011. This is being encouraged by the government as China gradually shifts its economy towards higher domestic consumption and better standards of living for workers. Hon Hai Precision Industry Company added 82,000 workers in China in 2011. Salaries at the Shenzen plant were 2200 yuan or $345 a month in February 2012, an increase of 10%. An April survey by Manpower Group showed that a majority of companies will increase workers or hold employment stable, only 3% of companies will have job cuts. Demographic changes are also playing a part-with fewer people in the 15-19 age range, dropping from 120 million in 2005 to 95 million in 2015, according to UN estimates. The number of migrant workers remains steady at 252 million in 2012, up 4% from 242 million in 2010, according to the Bureau of National Statistics....

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Declining manufacturing wages in the U.S. and the return of manufacturing jobs. Indiana's experience with new manufacturing plants.

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Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State meets with Tory group of MP's that want to see other issues relating to China tackled following exclusion of Huawei from UK 5G networks, and suspension of the extradition treaty with Hong Kong. This includes 120,000 Chinese students attending British universities and many students involved in advanced scientific research. Both Labour party leaders and Conservative party leaders support taking action to protect British interests relating to sharing sensitive technology, and national security. The U.S. is moving forward with a decoupling of economic relations with China on issues of sensitive technology, transfer of technology,  ownership of American tech companies, manufacturing jobs and regaining industrial strength, and on trade that transfers wealth from America to China. Britain is having to restructure its relations with China based on the general trend in U.S. China relations. China is the UK's 6th destination for exports of goods and services, only 3.6%. U.S. is far larger about 14%. The UK also has one third of its investments overseas going to the U.S. The U.S. has total investments in the UK of 758 billion dollars in 2018, showing that Britain's relationship with the U.S. is very close. ...

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Phased retirement is becoming a popular option for many Americans nearing retirement. An example is a employee taking 25% less income for 13 weeks of additional time off to spend more time with a reitred spouse, for vacation, and for trying out new locations for retirement. It gives working Americans an opportunity to gradually adopt a more relaxed lifestyle, to better understand what it would be like in retirement. This option also has the advantage of using good health to add some working years and improve the retirement portfolio, with less demands of work.

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Christina Romer, Prof. of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, was chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisors under U.S. president Obama. Here she discusses the different aspects of the debate on raising the minimum wage. Romer says the negative effects on unemployment are small. The impact on consumer spending is also limited. The anti-poverty effects are real for raising the minimum wage from the current $7.25 an hour, says Romer, as over half the families earning a minimum wage make less than $40,000 an hour. President Obama called for raising the minimum wage to $9 an hour in 2013. Studies show 13 million U.S. workers earning less than $9 an hour. Raising the incomes of these families by about $3500 an year under the president's proposal gives workers badly needed income to cope with rising cost of gas, food and other basic necessities. The effects on consumer spending are small, estimated at between $10 to $20 billion. Its main virtue is keeping the principle of fairness and maintaining social cohesion at a time of increaing inequality. Romer says there is competition for workers which makes it possible for workers at the lower end to get a fair wage, but does not account for the effect of high unemployment which takes pressure off raising the minimum wage in the market economy. Another benefit for countries of keeping a fair minimum wage is that other actions can be taken to improve competitiveness for business and manufacturing and reducing the deficit and be seen in a positive context of overall improvement. This is part of the case made in Europe for boosting the mnimum wage as austerity measures are taking place....

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Automobile parts imports into the U.S. have increased from $89 billion in 2008 to $138 billion in 2014, up from only $31.7 billion in 1990. In a huge shift in wages with increasing global competition wages at an American Axle plant in Michigan at $10 an hour are about what Target stores and Wal-mart pay for retail workers. An new generation of workers in manufacturing are seeing a shift from being in the middle class during their parents generation to lower class, with this downward pressure on wages as parts are manufactured in places such as Mexico and China.

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A look at the views of candidates running in the U.S. presidential election of 2016 on mass incarceration. Benie Sanders, Democratic Senator from Vermont, says the situation worsened for incarceration during the Clinton years when a policy of building prisons and increasing law enforcement was adopted. The 2.2 million persons in prison today are double that for the years before the early 1990's, said Sanders. Under president Clinton the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act was passed creating tougher penalties for drug offenders, and putting $30.2 billion for more police officers and new prisons. Hillary Clinton called for putting "an end to the era of mass incarceration." Adding in other remarks that missing African-American men means "missing husbands, missing fathers, and missing brothers."

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Ewen Macaskill of the Guardian travels on the bus with Jeremy Corbyn through the east Midlands region of the UK. He describes how Corbyn is handling the negative media coverage from the Daily Telegraph and the tabloids. Corbyn's response to the demonization by the tabloids underway for the last two years is that he does not let it get to him. He does not respond to personal attacks, including ones made by Theresa May, because he says it means he would have to descend to that level. "It actually devalues yourself and the process," says Corbyn. He is not stressed, says Corbyn because it would do him no good, and no good to the people around him who are putting in their best to support Labor in this election. Calm, composed, is how this reporter sees Corbyn on the trail. This means not following the latest polls but staying focussed on the goal and the day ahead. As a result the people who had only seen him through the negative image projected in the media are now becoming endeared to him. Little things count, whether the campaign workers are getting their tea and coffee, and looking for a knife to cut a chocolate brownie cake given at a prior event. Calm, composed, not letting comments or the pessimism affect him, as he is in his words "there for the long haul." This is true for the way he is careful not to allow intrusions into his family life, that would affect his wife Laura Alvarez and three sons. This is the way he has come across during his first day as Leader of the Opposition in parliament, and during the event where he launched the Labor manifesto. Preferring simplicity and ordinary life he prefers public transport, simple layout in the campaign bus, and if elected he says he would prefer to remain where he is instead of the house at 10 Downing Street. Corbyn is 68, but after the way he has tackled the challenge facing Labor, the graceful attitude and dignity needed especially today, he is likely to be around for much longer. ...

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VW and BMW show strong car sales in Germany, China and the U.S. for the first quarter of 2012, offsetting weaker sales in the rest of Europe.

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German plan takes shape Saturday as Finance Ministers of the 14 eurozone countries meet in Paris after the G7 meeting in Washington. It will include capital injection into banks in exchange for equity stakes, but further details are being worked out including the size of the plan.

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Prof. Peterson of Harvard and Hanushek of the Hoover Institution, authors with Woessmann of the book "Endangering Prosperity: A Global View of the American School," offer some startling reminders about the importance of education to economic growth and incomes in countries. Simply by raising the math standards in the U.S. to the higher standards in Canada would raise GDP by three fourths of one percentage point. One advantage that the U.S. enjoys comes from its good university systems, open markets, rule of law, tax rates, and open immigration policies, which give it about two thirds of a percentage point in higher GDP growth per year. The estimates are from the authors calculations. For the period 1960-2009, a period of rapid growth in Asian countries Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, higher test scores in math and reading compared to the wrold average as measured by NAEP test and PISA, have led to 2% higher GDP growth. NAEP shows only 32% of U.S. high school students proficient in math compared to 45% in Germany and 49% in Canada and 63% in Singapore. By contrast to Korea and Taiwan, Peru, Argentina, the Philippines and S. Africa have about 2% less in GDP growth because of lower scores compared to the world average....

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Nasdaq OMX Group CEO, Robert Greifeld, says Janet Yellen and the U.S. Fed Open Market Committee should exercize caution in increasing interest rates in 2014. He cites the heavy risk for long term investor outlook and psychology of the Fed moving too quickly in increasing interest rates, because of the steep drop in oil prices, the crash of the ruble, slowdown in Europe, deflationary trends in the eurozone and Japan, and slow growth in China. The Fed now has more room for taking a cautious approach says Greifeld, as wage growth is tepid, the dollar is strong, and oil prices are down significantly.

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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...

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"It may be that this iron curtain is small, unimportant and justified, but it is a bad sign." Howard Buffett took a stand in the House of Representatives against the VOA broadcasts being used inside the US in 1947.  Warren Buffett is the son of Congressman Howard Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska, who was on the Board of Education of Omaha, started a small stock brokerage firm, and ran for US Congress in 1942, reelected twice and in 1950. He also ran Howard Taft's Republican presidential campaign in 1952. Looking at Buffett in the FDR-Truman years- one sees a young Buffett in contrast to Warren Buffet's silence on the 2008 financial crisis, raising serious issues- about the Truman doctrine in 1947 on the floor of Congress, was Acheson falling dominoes analogy a dangerous one?  It worked in Turkey-Greece with $400 million in aid in 1947 but was Acheson/Truman using a dangerous analogy of dominoes that would later hurt the US in French colonial Indochina wars, and in the reference to protecting oil resources in Middle east in Iran, Iraq and Saudi to lead to wars that exist to this day in 2024? Wars DJT and Biden have both opposed in contrast to Reagan, Bush, and Obama. There is a huge contrast between the father Howard Buffett, descendent of Huguenot ancestors from 1600 New York, and the finance professional Warren Buffett who went to Columbia University in 1951-52 as student of Prof. Graham with 70 years in finance during which financial crises destabilized the US with Buffett not taking a stand. One hedge fund manager say it is pure nepotism to pass on the company Berkshire to Warren's son Howie. But he is not surprised- who else would be sure to keep the company headquarters in Omaha, keep things simple invested in index funds and much of it in a few companies leaving the investing to managers chosen by Warren, with Howie's job to make sure his father's principles remain. Howie is Warren Buffett's 70 year old son, who Buffett 90 years is setting up as his successor as chairman who will not do investing leaving it to managers, yet be able to change CEO's. Howie worked for a few years at See Candy, a Berkshire owned company before becoming corporate VP at ADM food producer, followed by working on his own farm in Decatur, Illinois which he enjoyed doing. At ADM Howie left after an anti trust investigation began, in which the company was charged with $100 antitrust fines for price fixing says the WSJ. What is Berkshire Hathaway? It is a trillion dollars of investment funds invested in a few companies under name Berkshire Hathaway, using some of the basic ideas of Benjamin Graham, a pioneer in careful investing, adopted by Warren. Where has Buffett put his money? Berkshire top ten investments are- about $90 billion in Apple, $70 billion split between Bank of America and American Express, $30 billion in Coca Cola, and $30 billion split between 2 oil companies Chevron and Occidental. He has not invested in pharmaceuticals or in renewable energy- in just a piece of America.This has generated a compound interest of about 14% over 3-5 years and about 12% over 10 years. He holds 30% of his investments in cash or fixed, mostly cash at this time. And holds the remaining 70% in stocks. ...