LyrArc Article Gist
About 15% of black men of working age in the population, and 21% of black women, were employed in the U.S. public sector, according to the population survey. The Labor Department reports 500,000 jobs in the public sector were lost since 2007. This reverses an historical trend of resilience in jobs for the public sector during economic downturns. If population increase since 2007 is figured in there are even fewer jobs considering more jobs might have been added, with estimates as high as 1.8 million. This is bad for black people in the U.S. because many work in public sector jobs driving school buses, in the post office, in the police and in other public services, with black people being 30% more likely than whites to hold a public sector job, and twice that of Hispanics. Thic comes at a time when the black community has seen a devastating impact from the foreclosures and other economic damage that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The result is shown in a study of foreclosures for 2005-2009 at Cornell University showing mostly black and Latino neighborhoods were affected by foreclosures at three times the rates for white neighborhoods. According to Pew Research Center the median white family had net assets of $142,000 compared to $11,000 for the median black family. With median black household income at 60% of that of white households the gap keeps increasing especially with high unemployment in black neighborhoods....

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran plans an ambitious $50 billion investment program to expand oil and gas output in the next 4 years. About half of that coming from Iran and the rest from outside oil companies. Iran expects to earn $54 billion in oil exports in 2006 vs. $47 billion in 2005. Iranian production represents 5% of global supply, about 4 million barrels a day. Only about 2.5 million of this is available for export. Iran has 2 problems in oil use and production. Gasoline use is growing at about 10% a year. And oil production is declining by about 5-6% a year from existing fields. The investment program over the next 4 years would increase production from new fields by about 1.3 billion barrels, but with existing fields generating less each year this will only generate about 500,000 barrels of additional output beeyond the 4million barrels today. And with domestic use growing rapidly and new refinery capacity being added to meet domestic demand of 500,000 barrels a day even this would leave no more for export than the current level of 2.5 million barrels a day, or probably less with growing gasoline use inside Iran. These are Iranian Oil Minister Vaziri Hamaneh's numbers. What this means is that with economic sanctions the whole global supply picture and the world price of crude oil would be seriously affected by economic sanctions in the next 4 years, as the 2.5 million barrels a day export number would be reduced by the increase in domestic consumption of gasoline by 10% a year, and the decline in existing fields of 5-6% a year. In the short term two year horizon this adds upto loss of some 700,000 barrels a day, about 400,000 from decline in existing oil fields and 300,000 in increased domestic use, which are no longer available for export. Hamaneh pointed to the investment as evidence of Iran's good intentions as a supplier in an interview with te Wall Street Journal. He says Iran sees the importance of preserving its credibility as a reliable supplier. It does not want to cause hardship to consumers around the world. Another reason for the pragmatic position taken by Hamaneh is that Iran depends on oil exports for 40-50% of government revenue....

LyrArc Article Gist
Beppe Severgnini is a columnist for Italy's newspaper Corriere della Serra. Here he describes the rift between generations in Italy that is holding Italy back.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Christian Democrats have their best results in 20 years in the 2013 general elections. The Free Democrats had about 4.5% of the vote, below the 5% threshhold required for representation in parliament. The Alternative for Germany party was close to but missed the 5% threshhold for parliament. The Christian Democrats received 42% of the vote. The Social Democrats won 26% of the vote. The CDU/CSU won 311 seats, the SPD 192 seats, the Left party 64 seats, and the Greens 63 seats in preliminary results. Because the CDU missed an absolute majority by a thin margin in parliament it will have to form a coalition government with one of the other parties, the Greens or the SDP.

LyrArc Article Gist
Instead of "ring fencing" bad loans one bank at a time, which is what is being done for Bank of America and Citigroup by the government , Bair, Bernanke and others favor something like the Resolution Trust Corporation, which would contain all bad assets of banks. Bair in an interview said she would like to see them priced at what they would get in today's market, meaning that the steep discounts issue would be faced squarely. What this will need is a lot of government money to restore confidence so that investors are willing to put their private money in the banks. And Senator Schumer says he is hearing the number of $1 trillion or more. This would let banks take these bad assets off their balance sheets, like they did with the Brady bonds for bad Latin American assets and with the Resolution Trust Corporation for bad assets in the savings and loan crisis. It was the original intent of TARP but two things happened, first the pricing of these assets was in limbo, with nobody willing to say how steep the discount should be. The auction process proposed was a vague and shaky one. Second, things deteriorated so quickly that it became urgent to instead do bank recapitalizations for $250 billion. Now the same issue has to be addressed directly by another administration with control of Congress, so that the big bucks funding of $1 trillion can be possible to do. Something like a separate institution that holds all bad bank assets. And the government taking on a big part of the burden, and with it some ownership of the banks that hopefully could payback some of this $ 1 trillion....

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Laurence Peter of the BBC News describes a meeting of EU leaders in December 2016. The new Europa building with its space egg shape will be the location of the next summit in 2016, adding to a sense of history that the EU idea has witnessed since the 1950's, even optimism about far it has come at a time of a few setbacks.  He points out that Theresa May was not without persons to talk to at the meeting, though some video clips showed her looking lonely. EU president Martin Schulz said he was emotional seeing students crying after the Brexit vote, but that it was time to find solutions and not be emotional today. Lunch was offered at the meeting by Spain and Portugal, to mark the 30 years since they joined. People forget how much the European Community meant to the two countries after decades of suffering under fascist dictatorships- it meant new hope and an opportunity to set things right. Problems facing the EU today include, the frustration at the carnage in Aleppo, Syria, how to deal with Britain and Brexit, setting up an asylum system that will work, dealing with Ukraine and Russia without making the situation worse, and remaining concerns about the Greece debt crisis. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A strong U.S. jobs report in July with 255,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.9%, provides positive sentiment going forward. The Federal Reserve is likely to be wary of raising rates because businesses are hiring but are not making the investments needed to spur economic growth, which remains at about 1%. The labor force participation rate is now at 62.8%. The measure of unemployment and underemployment shows a better picture of how different age groups are faring including the 25-54 years age group- this is at 9.7% in July 2016, it was 9.6% in June 2016. This measure shows those working part time because they cannot find a full time job. The market today is stronger for those with the right job skills, but not across the spectrum for all Americans, only setting the stage for further progress and increasing investment as confidence improves.

LyrArc Article Gist
China bans smoking in public places in June 2015. The authorites say unlike previous bans before the Olympics this one will be enforced. The damage to public health is immense, with about one third of smokers in the world in China. Public spaces include restaurants, offices, bars, nightclubs, airports and trains. Included also are areas around schools and hospitals. There are 301 million smokers in China, according to the World Health Organization. About 53% of men and 2.4% of women smoke regularly, and this contributes to 1 million deaths from heart disease, cancer and other diseases. WHO estimates about 100,000 deaths from second hand smoke. About 28.1% of the population are smokers, based on the 2010 survey. The survey was organized by the WHO and China's Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The figure of 2.4% shows women are less affected than men by the damage done to public health. Women also are leading the way to fight smoking and effects of second hand smoke. People in Beijing already have to deal with the effects of pollution in the air they breathe, and are keen on eliminating the additional harmful effects of secondhand smoke added to this....

LyrArc Article Gist
Polls by Renato Mannheimer show popular support for the People of Freedom party of Mr. Berlusconi, which won 37% of the vote in 2008, is now down to 17% This comes after a series of corruption scandals. The most recent involves embezzlement of 1.7 million dollars by a politician from the Rome-Lazio regional government. New parties are being formed which are drawing increasing support. The Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, a former comedian, which opposes being in the eurozone and calls it a "noose" for Italy shows 18% support, according to a poll by the SWG agency. In that poll the Italy of Values party had 6% support, and the Left Ecology party 6%. Mannheimer says only one third of Italian voters are now in favor of the large established parties, indicating a big change is underway in Italian politics. The new parties are also critical of prime minister Monti's policies. This happens just as political and business leaders in Italy are calling for Monti to run for office to continue policy changes he has made to improve Italy's competitiveness and lead to economic recovery. Monti, a former EU Commissioner, was appointed as prime minister after pressure from German chancellor Merkel and the EU led to a loss of parliamentary support for Mr Berlusconi with key members of his own party defecting. After passing legislation for changes to Italian labor laws and making other shanges to improve Italy's competitiveness since taking office in November 2011, Monti is now seen in Italy, and outside Italy in EU circles, as the only person who can lead Italy out of the economic crisis; even though his reforms and austerity measures have not proved popular....

LyrArc Article Gist
The 90 minute nationally televised debate in Germany between Angela Merkel and Peter Steinbruck before the September 22, 2013 national elections.

LyrArc Article Gist
Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.