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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
China and corruption under the Xi Jinping administration
12/02/2014
Transparency International gives China 36 points , a decline of 4 points in 2014. Since 2013 China has dropped 20 place in the Corruption Perceptions Index, only Turkey had a steeper drop in points in 2014. Transparency, independent judiciary, free speech, whistleblower protection, and accountable government are factors that determine ranking in the index.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/09/2014
China Slips in Corruption Perceptions ReportNew York Times 12/02/2014
Bank of Japan's Kuroda adopts the ECB's Draghi's stance on the economy, saying "we will do whatever it takes" in Nov. 2014
10/31/2014
Efforts by Kuroda to reach the 2% inflation target in 2 years.
Linked Articles
Bank of Japan Announces Massive Stimulus Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2014
Japan Abruptly Acts to Stimulate EconomyNew York Times 10/31/2014
China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013
07/09/2014
Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.
Linked Articles
U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2014
Abe's Constitutional Reform Push SlowsWall Street Journal 07/09/2014
U.S. Federal Reserve policy to leave bond buying tapering unchanged and the lower U.S. growth from adverse weather in 4th quarter 2013-1st quarter 2014
02/28/2014
Yellen leaves Fed policy on the same course as lower growth is attributed to bad weather in Feb. 2014.
Linked Articles
Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking LikelyWall Street Journal 03/02/2014
Predominance of rail over pipelines in transport of crude from Canada and the Bakken region till 2016
02/02/2014
Pressure to build pipelines comes from congestion and safety issues for the rail system in the U.S. In the short term rail still remains the main method of transport.
Linked Articles
In Dakota Oil Patch, Trains Trump Pipelines
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2014
Even Without Keystone Pipeline, Oil Has FlowedWall Street Journal 02/02/2014
China's steadily growing automobile market in 2014-2015 (2)- the 49% increase in SUV sales in 2013 over 2012
12/16/2013
Ford Motor's early push into SUV's in China is helping it catchup with GM and Toyota.
Linked Articles
Renault to Focus on Building SUVs in China
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2013
Ford's SUVs Propel Its China GainsWall Street Journal 04/08/2014
Change and South Africa- The African National Congress in 1944 and the African National Congress in 2013
12/05/2013
The changing mood of young people in South Africa as the ANC fails to live up to its ideals.
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/05/2013
In Mandela's Home, Grief and GlorificationWall Street Journal 12/06/2013
The U.S., European and Emerging Markets stock markets in October 2013
11/17/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Is This a Bubble?Wall Street Journal 11/17/2013
Liu He, top economic advisor to president Jinping, and Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, push for deposit insurance and private banks in China
10/30/2013
Deposit insurance and private banks to support lending to new private enterprises moves to the top of China's agenda and priorities in 2013 for the Jinping-Keqiang administration.
Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish ListWall Street Journal 10/30/2013
The Egyptian military and Gen. Sissi's rejection of the E.U. envoy Bernardino Leon's deal for a peaceful removal of Morsi protester camps followed by talks and new elections
08/15/2013
Burns, Leon and the foreign ministers of Qatar and the UAE arranged the deal which was supported by El Baradei and then rejected by Gen. Sissi leading to the violent military crackdown and 525 dead on Aug. 14, 2013.
Linked Articles
U.S. allies were near a deal for peaceful end to Egypt crisis - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/17/2013
Egyptâs Blood, Americaâs ComplicityNew York Times 08/15/2013
Samsung and the increasing competition in the lower priced smartphone segment from Huawei, HTC, ZTE and Lenovo in 2013-2014
06/17/2013
Linked Articles
Huawei Set to Launch New Smartphone
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2013
Samsung's Dream Is to Be No Android SheepWall Street Journal 06/17/2013
The rebound in the U.S. housing market in early 2013
05/02/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/29/2013
Housing Market AcceleratesWall Street Journal 05/02/2013
Two party systems and Malaysia's UMNO Party- (2) the future economic prospects of Malaysia under Razak, India under Modi, Indonesia under Widodo
12/08/2014
Najib Razak follows his father Tun Abdul Razak, Mahathir before him, all the way back to Tunku Abdul Rahman, all of the UMNO party, in an uninterrupted control of the United Malay Naional Organization Party which has ruled Malaysia for almost 6 decades. Malaysia has followed the example of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore by keeping the opposition parties weak to maintain control. Both the UMNO and the party of Lee in Singapore face questions about the merits of suppressing the development of two party systems, at a time when government is changing hands to opposition parties in most of the region and improving economic prospects in each country with a change of government- Abe in Japan, Widodo in Indonesia, Modi and Sharif in India and Pakistan, Aquino in the Philippines, Wickremesinghe in Sri Lanka. A economic drift with no clear direction under Singh and Bhutto in India and Pakistan was reversed with the election of Modi and Sharif, the economic drift and deflation under the Kan and Noda governments was reversed in Japan with the election of Abe, and the economic drift in Indonesia is being reversed by the Widodo government. This shows how critical two party systems are to functioning democracies as middle classes develop and voters look for competing views of the future to choose from.
Linked Articles
Fund Controversy Threatens Malaysia’s Leader
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015
Indonesian President Joko Widodo Pledges to Cut Investment BarriersWall Street Journal 12/08/2014
Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views
11/20/2014
Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.
Linked Articles
Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014
With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to EvaporateNew York Times 11/20/2014
Tragedy in Africa (2) - Ebola virus and the breakdown for healthcare, running water, electricity, coupled with food shortages in West Africa
10/10/2014
Linked Articles
Liberia’s Ebola Crisis Puts President in Harsh Light
New York Times 10/30/2014
Rising Food Prices Make Africa Fight Ebola on Empty StomachWall Street Journal 10/10/2014
GE (General Electric) low tax rate of 4.2% in 2013, 10.3% in 2014, and the move to a normal tax rate in 2015
03/05/2014
An aggressive policy of tax reduction using GE Capital at GE leads to an astonishingly low tax rate. Shareholders see the uncertainty from GE Capital's volatile earnings and tax strategies with great skepticism. GE shares dropped to $6 during the 2008 global financial crisis because of GE Capital losses, and GE needed government rescue funds. The day CEO Immelt announced the decision to exit the banking business GE shares went up by 11%. GE's tax rate without the banking business will go up to about 20%.
Linked Articles
Price of Selling GE Capital? Tax Breaks
Wall Street Journal 04/14/2015
How corporate America is losing the debate on taxesWashington Post 03/05/2014
Britain's RBS bank and the issue of high bank bonuses after a $15 billion loss in 2013
02/27/2014
Linked Articles
Royal Bank of Scotland to Slash Costs as Losses Deepen
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
Bailed-Out Royal Bank of Scotland Sees Years of LossesNew York Times 02/27/2014
Losses at RBS in 2013 putting off date at which the UK government's 81% stake can be sold to the private sector
01/28/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2014
Legal Costs Set to Put RBS in the RedWall Street Journal 01/28/2014
China PBOC's efforts in early 2014 to slow and slightly reverse appreciation of the yuan and have it trade in a 2% up or down trading range
12/10/2013
PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency in 2014 by slightly lowering its value, with plans to widen the trading range up or down by 2%. The yuan appreciated by 2.9% in 2013.
Linked Articles
China Intervenes to Lower Yuan
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Brawny Yuan Stands Apart from the CrowdWall Street Journal 12/10/2013
Low wages for workers at retail branches of banks and fast-food retail outlets
12/04/2013
Linked Articles
Low bank wages costing the public millions, report says - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/04/2013
Fast-food workers plan a new wave of walkouts across the nation - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/04/2013
Bill Keller of the NYT and Evan Williams of Twitter on how the flood of internet information is making people uncertain what information to trust
11/03/2013
Linked Articles
A Founder of Twitter Goes Long
New York Times 11/09/2013
Itâs the Golden Age of NewsNew York Times 11/03/2013
Missteps of German brands in the U.S. market 2013-2015- Adidas and VW
09/06/2013
Linked Articles
How Adidas Aims to Get Its Cool Back
Wall Street Journal 03/26/2015
VW's $1 Billion Bet on U.S. Factory SputtersWall Street Journal 09/06/2013
Slowing growth in Russia- the impact of the emerging markets crisis and the Ukraine crisis
08/11/2013
Growth slows to 1-2% in Russia in 2013, with the risks of the emerging markets crisis and the Ukraine political crisis hurting foreign investor confidence in Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia's Power Play Hits Economic Weak Spot
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2014
Russia's Growth Pace Continues to WeakenWall Street Journal 08/11/2013
The advice of General Keane in May 2013, decisions for Syria and Iraq by president Obama ignoring this advice, and the situation in September 2014
05/22/2013
Gen. Keane's advice was to destroy the 50 airstrips used by the Assad regime and its air defense system with cruise missiles and American airpower, the alternative would be to establish a no fly zone such as the one used in Libya. Direct use of American airpower early in the conflict would make it possible to keep American involvement constructive, and effective.
Linked Articles
Jack Keane and Danielle Pletka: How to Stop Assad's Slaughter
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2013
A President Whose Assurances Have Come Back to Haunt HimNew York Times 09/08/2014
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