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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Obama's second term- (6) failures in foreign policy of the Obama White House in Syria and Iraq and the conflict in historical context
10/07/2014
Linked Articles
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New Memoir
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Will Syria Be Obama’s Vietnam?New York Times 10/07/2014
Obama's second term- (5) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Clinton and Panetta
08/11/2014
A Defense Secretary and Secretary of State in the Obama administration describe up close president Obama's failure to act at key moments in the crisis in Iraq and Syria. This has badly damaged the U.S. credibility and what it stands for in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Linked Articles
A Rift in Worldviews Is Exposed as Clinton Faults Obama on Policy
New York Times 08/11/2014
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New MemoirWall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Emerging Markets 2014 financial crisis (1) - Argentina, Turkey and Thailand, shown to have failed to learn the lessons of the 1997 financial crisis
01/30/2014
Linked Articles
Emerging-Market Slide Tests How Much Nations Learned From Past
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Emerging markets: Don’t panicEconomist 02/04/2014
China PBOC's efforts in early 2014 to slow and slightly reverse appreciation of the yuan and have it trade in a 2% up or down trading range
12/10/2013
PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency in 2014 by slightly lowering its value, with plans to widen the trading range up or down by 2%. The yuan appreciated by 2.9% in 2013.
Linked Articles
China Intervenes to Lower Yuan
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Brawny Yuan Stands Apart from the CrowdWall Street Journal 12/10/2013
Microsoft and the risks in having directors serve on Boards for long periods of time
07/16/2013
The problems of the lack of new energy and new ideas, and the lack of younger members with fresh perspectives.
Linked Articles
Microsoft Board Shows Little Taste for Bold Choice in CEO
Wall Street Journal 09/02/2013
The 40-Year Club: America's Longest-Serving DirectorsWall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Obama's second term- (2) the U.S. president Obama's foreign policy failures in Syria-Iraq, Woodward and the U.S. Senate on Libya
05/19/2013
Linked Articles
Woodward: It Isn’t Watergate, but It Is Nixonian
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2013
Benghazi Attack Called Avoidable in Senate ReportNew York Times 01/15/2014
Obama's second term- (1) history of U.S. presidents and foreign policy failures in Syria-Iraq of U.S. president Obama
11/07/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/08/2012
Triumphant Obama Faces New Foe in Second-Term CurseNew York Times 11/07/2012
Lenovo's effort to increase smartphone sales in China and emerging markets
08/14/2012
Lenovo is positioning itself to become the dominant smartphone company in China, second only to Samsung. It is creating a brand presence in China's rural areas for PC's and mobile devices which is likely to further enhance sales. This effort extends to other emerging markets in Asia such as India and Indonesia. Other strategic decisions include bringing in more manufactuing in-house compared to competitors HP and others in the PC industry.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2012
HTC Beefs Up China Push as U.S., Europe LagWall Street Journal 08/14/2012
Mario Draghi says having the ECB take up tasks of eurozone wide banking supervision is fully in line with the ECB's mandate
07/01/2012
Linked Articles
European Central Bank Head, Draghi, Has New Powers
New York Times 07/02/2012
Doubts Greet Plan for Euro Zone Bank RegulatorNew York Times 07/01/2012
Sluggish growth in the second quarter of 2012 points to a slow U.S. economic recovery
06/01/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/28/2012
Weak Job Growth in May as Unemployment Rate Ticked UpNew York Times 06/01/2012
Lenovo's focus on emerging markets and its in-house manufacturing help it gain second place in the PC industry worldwide 2012-2013
05/29/2012
Lenovo is emerging as China's global brand with a large presence in China and India, the two fastest growing markets.
Linked Articles
As Rivals Outsource, Lenovo Keeps Production In-House
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2012
PC Firm Lenovo Hunts For Brazil AcquisitionsWall Street Journal 05/29/2012
The sharp rebound at Toyota with planned sales of 9.76 million for fiscal 2012
04/22/2012
Japanese carmakers have rapidly recovered from the earhtquake and tsunami in Japan and floods in Thailand that disrupted supply chains. Toyota has also recovered from the damage to its image after recalls in the U.S. market with U.S. market share at over 15% by the second quarter of 2012.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2012
Japan Auto Makers on a RollWall Street Journal 04/22/2012
Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views
11/20/2014
Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.
Linked Articles
Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014
With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to EvaporateNew York Times 11/20/2014
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
Tim Cook's effort to fill the role played by Steve Jobs at Apple, and fill in gaps where Jobs could have done more
06/15/2014
Linked Articles
Tim Cook, Making Apple His Own
New York Times 06/15/2014
Jonathan Ive on Apple's Design Process and Product PhilosophyNew York Times 06/16/2014
Faces the U.S. Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen will have in mind as she shapes Fed policies
01/23/2014
The long term unemployed will shape Yellen's thinking on Fed policy in 2014-2015, especially men of working age.
Linked Articles
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on RatesNew York Times 01/23/2014
Questions of fairness- could the U.S. government have done more to help homeowners in foreclosure? (2)
09/13/2013
Linked Articles
Fannie, Freddie Payments Nearly Match Aid
Wall Street Journal 11/08/2013
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives OnWall Street Journal 09/13/2013
Getting economic policy right- A second look at Japan, the European Union and the U.S. in 2014-2015
06/09/2013
In taking a second look, economists Stiglitz and Krugman ask if much derided Japan has avoided the worst effects of unemployment that have affected Spain, Italy, Greece, and France in the eurozone, and for the the long term unemployed in the U.S. And in doing so also avoided the widening income and wealth gaps opened up in the other industrialized countries.
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/30/2014
Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary TaleNew York Times 06/09/2013
Obama's second term- (4) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Leon Panetta
02/07/2013
Linked Articles
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New Memoir
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Senate Panel Examines Benghazi AttackNew York Times 02/07/2013
President Obama's second term- (3) failure to lead on the domestic front and how it relates to Syria-Iraq, the careful observations of Panetta and Woodward
09/07/2012
Leon Panetta, U.S. Defense Secretary under Obama, who was also U.S. president Clinton's chief of staff, and Bob Woodward, renown Washington Post journalist, say Obama failed to lead on domestic policy issues and his own agenda during the first term.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/07/2012
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New MemoirWall Street Journal 10/07/2014
U.S. Federal Reserve policy with GDP growth of 1.5% in the second quarter of 2012
07/28/2012
Janet Yellen, deputy chairman at the U.S. Fed says there is need for the Fed to act considering the risks emerging from the eurozone and lack of policy direction from the U.S. Congress.
Linked Articles
Some at Fed Urge Pre-emptive Stimulus
New York Times 07/30/2012
Weak Economy Heads LowerWall Street Journal 07/28/2012
The muted effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Operation Twist in the second half of 2012
06/21/2012
Monetary policy's diminishing effectiveness in the U.S. in 2012-2013.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2012
What Fed Move Means for Investors - Real-Time Advice - SmartMoneyUnknown 06/21/2012
China's second Stimulus in 2012 following the one in 2008-2009, and World Bank chief Zoellick's advice for a different policy mix
05/30/2012
A more measured response this time from the Development Reform Commission (DRC) and the State Council. Targeted spending on select and strategic projects to avoid inflating the housing bubble any further, and screening out projects with dubious merit.
Linked Articles
In China, a New Round of Stimulus
New York Times 05/30/2012
World Bank Chief Urges Euro BondsWall Street Journal 05/31/2012
The remarkable achievement of Governor Jerry Brown of California- a budget surplus of $851 million for fiscal 2013
05/14/2012
The impossible becomes possible in California as political hurdles are overcome and the state's economy improves. The budget preserves spending priorities for education and healthcare by cutting back in other areas, another remarkable feat- a lasting legacy for Brown's second act as governor. His father was governor in the Kennedy years, he was governor in the 1980's.
Linked Articles
State’s Rare Sight: A Budget Surplus
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2013
Brown Proposes $8.3 Billion in Cuts for CaliforniaNew York Times 05/14/2012
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