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Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Goldman Sachs and U.S. regulators in 2015-2017- cutting risks in trading activity and private equity/hedge fund investments following the excessive leveraging of the 2008 financial crisis
08/04/2016
Stronger regulation takes shape through the efforts of Daniel Tarullo at the Federal Reserve and the LISSC. The situation with Goldman Sachs, one of the highly leveraged banks during the 2008 financial crisis still hoping to earn high profits with large trading activities.
Linked Articles
At Goldman Sachs, Stress Test Results Could Endanger an Important Profit Source
New York Times 03/08/2015
Goldman Sachs Not Sure It Can Sell Private-Equity StakesWSJ 08/04/2016
Angela Merkel's leadership during the immigration and Brexit crises by July 2016- increasing support for the European Union in Germany and personal support up to 59 percent in Deutschland trending poll
07/08/2016
By offering "calm and composed" leadership during the Brexit crisis, and being flexible in dealing with genuine concerns about immigration in Germany, Merkel shows Europe a better way than fractious British, French or American politics during a critical period when good responsible leadership is missing.
Linked Articles
Poll: Brexit vote boosts support for EU in Germany | News | DW.COM | 08.07.2016
DW.COM 07/08/2016
Angela Merkel Is Motivated By Decency, Not PoliticsWall Street Journal 12/21/2015
The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China
10/21/2015
Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.
Linked Articles
China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Yum Brands to Split Off China BusinessWall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
Declining inflation and interest rate cuts in India in 2015
01/14/2015
Linked Articles
India’s Inflation Fight Pays Early Dividend
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2015
Suddenly, India Cuts Interest RatesNew York Times 01/14/2015
Shaile oil as a lasting factor for oil supplies beyond 2015- U.S. shale oil production likely to weather Saudi price cuts as technology advances
10/23/2014
Linked Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale BoomWall Street Journal 10/23/2014
Popular discontent with hosting the World Cup and Olympics in Brazil- construction issues and lack of improvement in infrastructure and services
05/26/2014
Linked Articles
Hope Fades in Brazil for a World Cup Economic Boost
Wall Street Journal 05/28/2014
Brazil Is Tired of Being ScoldedNew York Times 05/26/2014
Torrelodones, Castilla La Mancha and the effort to clean up accounts in local government in Spain
06/25/2012
Wasteful spending, cronyism, corruption and lack of transparency in local government marked the years of the construction and real estate boom in Spain. Now grassroots efforts are taking place across Spain to clean up accounts, ensure transparency, and divert wasted resources to meet vital needs. Similiar efforts are taking place from Thessaloniki, Greece, to Sicily, Italy, as Europ faced with high unemployment and austerity cuts comes up with its own efforts for renewal from the bottom up setting the political elites aside.
Linked Articles
Europe's Recession Sparks Grass-Roots Political Push
Wall Street Journal 05/21/2013
A Spanish Leader Emerges as a Crusader for AusterityWall Street Journal 06/25/2012
The remarkable achievement of Governor Jerry Brown of California- a budget surplus of $851 million for fiscal 2013
05/14/2012
The impossible becomes possible in California as political hurdles are overcome and the state's economy improves. The budget preserves spending priorities for education and healthcare by cutting back in other areas, another remarkable feat- a lasting legacy for Brown's second act as governor. His father was governor in the Kennedy years, he was governor in the 1980's.
Linked Articles
State’s Rare Sight: A Budget Surplus
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2013
Brown Proposes $8.3 Billion in Cuts for CaliforniaNew York Times 05/14/2012
India's surging crude oil imports with a depreciating rupee reducing the impact of cuts in fuel subsidies- 2011-2015
04/11/2012
Cuts in fuel subsidies to reduce the current account deficit has less impact with a depreciating rupee. The emerging markets crisis in 2014 focusses attention on the current account deficits of emerging market countries. A decline in foreign investment adds to India's difficulties.
Linked Articles
India Grapples With Soaring Energy Costs
Wall Street Journal 04/11/2012
Rupee Throws Oil on India's Subsidy ProblemWall Street Journal 08/21/2013
The risks facing Spain in 2012 with austerity measures when unemployment is at 23%
03/06/2012
Finance Minister Luis de Guindos sees Spain loosing either way with spending cuts that worsen high unemployment and lower economic growth leading to a worsening debt to GDP ratio in 2012, and this situation in turn raising its borrowing costs on $86 billion in debt issuance for 2012. He estimates the debt to GDP ratio will increase under the 2012 budget of 27 billion euros in cuts and an economy shrinking by 1.7% in 2012, by 10% from 2011 to 78%. Markets are focussing on debt in Portugal and Spain in 2012, after focussing on Greece and Italy in 2011.
Linked Articles
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Spain Struggles to Unite Regional Leaders on CutsNew York Times 03/06/2012
India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, and efforts to balance inflation goals with the need to stimulate growth in 2012
02/14/2012
The RBI made a rate cut of 0.5 percentage point in April 2012, following a series of rate increases in 2010-2011 to control inflationary pressures. The RBI governor Devi Subbarao's view is that the government which faces a lack of political leadership and state elections needs to do more to increase growth.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (1) the pro stay vote in Ireland and Scotland
08/16/2016
Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, is deeply committed to the idea of the union of England with Scotland and Ireland. Invoking Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, a step necessary for Brexit, would also lead to Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party to initiate plans for a second referendum for Scottish independence, as Scotland votd to remain in the European Union. The issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU would also lead to serious repercussions. In short it will be hard to separate the leave vote in England from the stay vote in Scotland and Ireland, as it will be difficult for most British people to imagine a England without a British identity. If the referendum had asked the second question "Do you still vote leave if this means the end of Britain or the United Kingdom?" the vote could have turned out differently for nationalist voters.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
No return to border controls in Northern Ireland, UK PM May says | News | DW.COM | 25.07.2016DW.COM 07/25/2016
Ireland, Northern Ireland and Britain- preserving the gains of the peace deal and the open borders after Brexit
07/12/2016
Northern Ireland favored Remain in EU by 55%. Should it be pushed into a situation of withdrawing from the EU like Scotland which also favored Remain based on the preference of voters in England and Wales? Should Ireland be divided by hard borders again after 20 years of peace and open borders? These are questions the people of Ireland are asking.It is also a question for Irish Americans who supported the peace deal.
Linked Articles
The New York Times 07/12/2016
Ireland in the sun after Brexit vote? | Europe | DW.COM | 05.07.2016DW.COM 07/05/2016
How the few Oxford educated politicians forming an old boy's club and their infighting by 2016 led to the vote for Brexit
07/08/2016
How Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson, a few Oxford educated politicians put their narrow interests and party politics ahead of the interests of Britain and the interests of the European Union.
Linked Articles
British Politics Gives a Sense of Government by Old School Chums
The New York Times 07/07/2016
Theresa May, Long in Public Eye, Finds Herself Focus of Conservative RaceThe New York Times 07/05/2016
Faces in Changzhi and Chengdu as China closes cement and steel plants to cut large overcapacity in 2015
08/28/2015
The closing of a cement plant in Changzhi and the closing of the Panchenggang steel factory in Chengdu in 2015, are part of an overall effort to closer older, less efficent, higher polluting facilities. The transition means more workers laid off and a period of retraining in other fields, and economic uncertainty in these urban areas.
Linked Articles
China’s Shift Away From Industry Drains Life From a Steel Town
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2015
Zombie Factories Stalk the Sputtering Chinese EconomyNew York Times 08/28/2015
What Greece won in the negotiations and what Greece lost in the failure of talks with the EU, capital controls, closing of banks and the referendum on July 5, 2015
02/27/2015
Major concessions were won by Greece on the most important issues of the surplus, and the size of the public sector with high unemployment. Compromise was being reached on the value added taxes and age for getting pensions, next down the list. Next on the list were pension cuts which undoubtedly would hurt pensioners but in the larger picture of the economy would come after the size of the surplus and dateline, and the size of public sector. The size of these cuts is small compared to the cost of 60 billion euros from the damage done to the economy, and the alternatives for pensioners and the rest of the country. under bank closure. For the EU this was seen as part of pension reforms and for left leaning Syriza compromising on behalf of pensioners.
Linked Articles
IMF Raises Referendum Stakes With Call for More Aid for Greece and Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2015
What Greece WonNew York Times 02/27/2015
Shale oil as a lasting factor for oil supplies beyond 2015- U.S. shale oil production likely to weather Saudi price cuts
10/23/2014
Linked Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale BoomWall Street Journal 10/23/2014
China's efforts to cut excess production of steel and other products in 2014-2015
07/16/2014
Linked Articles
Pain Spreads From China’s Excess Production
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2014
In China, Beijing Fights Losing Battle to Rein In Factory ProductionWall Street Journal 07/16/2014
The management styles of Jeff Bezos at Amazon and Paul English, co-founder of Kayak
07/25/2013
Bezos and English prefer small teams to get things done quickly. Layers of management are cut out and employees given freedom to test ideas.
Linked Articles
Paul English of Kayak, on Nurturing New Ideas
New York Times 07/25/2013
Jeff Bezos, The Post’s incoming owner, known for a demanding management style at Amazon - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/08/2013
The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
Spain's effort to fix regional finances, austerity measures and risks of high unemployment
04/27/2012
Efforts to fix regional finances with spending cuts have pushed unemployment to about 27% in one of Spain's largest regions, Castilla-La Mancha. As banks consolidate and reduce lending this depresses small and medium sized businesses, the public sector layoff increase unemployment, part time unemployment and the growing underground economy depress tax revenues, creating risks of a downward spiral.
Linked Articles
A Spanish Leader Emerges as a Crusader for Austerity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2012
Spain, Pursuing Austerity, Still Waits for the PayoffNew York Times 04/27/2012
Eliminating all Bush tax cuts to generate the revenue base to support spending programs for the middle class down the road
03/29/2012
Jared Berstein of the Economic Policy Institute, Peter Orszag, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, and Mayor Bloomberg of New York, say eliminating all Bush tax cuts would provide the revenue base needed to support middle class programs for future years. Orszag says making the tax code more progressive is desirable especially considering the inequality but this does not do much good if the revenue base to support middle class programs down the road is insufficient.
Linked Articles
Middle Class Malaise Complicates Democratsâ Fiscal Stance
New York Times 12/12/2012
Federal Budgets and Class WarfareWall Street Journal 03/29/2012
Failure to tackle tax evasion in Greece estimated at one third of the deficit for 2009
02/19/2012
The implementation of austerity measures in Greece including cuts to the minimum wage hit people with lower wages the hardest. This takes place even as Greece fails to tackle tax evasion by higher income groups such as doctors and engineers. This is estimated by a group of economists who looked at Greek bank records at 11.2 billion euros in 2009.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2012
Greek leaders’ priorities questioned - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/19/2012
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