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One hundred years after the First World War Germans look at memorials and museums in Kiel about the naval buildup in Germany in 1910-1914 in a different light. Germany's effort to match Britain's naval supremacy and the increasing tensions and nationalist rhetoric led to the war- worse, the defeat created conditions for a larger conflict in 1939-1945. To put this period behind it Germany has emphasized the dangers of war and getting people to realize what war is. Kiel itself was 80% destroyed at the end of the Second World War.

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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Germany is turning nationalistic in its approach to the debt crisis in Greece. This comes as Germans consider economic successes as Germany's, and failures in Europe, as the problems not of a united Europe but of these individual countries. The largest circulation German newspaper, Bild, suggested Greece sell the Acropolis to payoff creditors in the bond markets, and putting a estimate of $140 billion for this monument. A senior member of Merkel's party suggesting Greece sell off some of the Aegean islands. And a Bild poll showing a majority of Germans favor expelling Greece from the euro. There is not sufficient acknowledgement by German public opinion of the value to Germany of the export markets in Europe and the part they played in Germany's economic success.

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Turkey's relations with Turkmen in northern Syria, and opposition to the bombing of this part of Syria by Russian planes is cited as the reason for Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane in November 2015. Prime minister Erdogan stated this by saying: "we strongly condemn attacks focusing on areas inhabited by Bayibucak Turkmen- we have our relatives, our kin there." Following the incident Turkey provided media with footage showing 10 repeated warnings in the space of 5 minutes to the two Russian planes before Turkish F-16's shot down the Russian plane. The area where the plane was shot down is a small part of Turkey that juts into Syria. This part of Turkey is called the Hatay province, with Turkmen in Hatay forming a republic in 1938 breaking away from the French mandate over Syria set up following the first world war. The following year it joined Turkey. Parts of the Turkmen in Hatay are still in Syria and this is the region Russia began bombing 2 months ago, with Turkey opposing the bombing. Russian president Putin's claim that this is part of the bombing of Islamic State positions is refuted by Turkey's prime minister Davotoglu, who says "No one can legitimize attacks on Turkmens in Syria using the pretext of fighting the Islamic State." ...

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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Ben Hubbard of the NYT describes the problems created by the Russian bombing campaing in Syria for the civilian population, and the lack of any changes on the ground. Russia may soon be looking for a way out from its involvement in the region, says Hubbard, because of the costs of such an involvement over time.

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In his plain talk on Syria Trump said the primary message to Russia was: "You should have peace in Syria; its enough." This is the message foreign minister Tillerson is delivering in Moscow. He described the Russian support for the Syrian government as: "I think it's very bad for Russia, I think it's very bad for mankind, it's very bad for this world." He also described Chinese president Xi Jinping's response at a state dinner during dessert when Trump told him about the U.S. missile attack on Syrian airfield, as expressing the sentiment that it was OK considering the chemical attacks by the Syrian government on civilians and children. The closest any president gets to the plain talk given by Trump is during the period of the Cold War when Truman also had this kind of plain talking style to deliver the message that needed to be heard.

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The new Rapid Response Force with a spearhead of 5000 troops deployable in 48 hours is intended to counter Russia's new aggressive position in Eastern Europe. Command centers will be established in the Baltic states Lithuania, Estonia, Lativia, and in Poland. Romania, Bulgaria. Leadership will rotate for this force between Spain in 2016, Britain in 2017, followed by Italy, France and Poland. Germany currently leads a temporary version of the new force. It is designed to give each nation time to prepare for further action. Within weeks an additional 25,000 troops could be deployed alongside the 5000 troops. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, is NATO's top military commander. He says the U.S. will have officers in each of the 6 command centers, and in larger bases located in Poland and Romania. The U.S. will provide support for surveillance, intelligence, logistics and airlifts. Retiring Defense Secretary Hagel had called for the Rapid Deployment Force to be ready for action in the Middle East or in Eastern Europe....

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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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Nawaf Obaid, a fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, is also senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. Here he describes the events leading to the Saudi turndown of a seat on the UN Security Council. The Saudi foreign policy establishment made this decision after several weeks of debate in Jeddah considering the U.S. and Russia's effort to make only a muted criticism of the use of chemical weapons in Syria in the Security Council; and the U.S. effort to have the British, French and Saudis give up on demands for firm language in a Security Council resolution on action to be taken against the use of chemical weapons. For the Saudis, says Obaid, better not taking a temporary seat on the UN Security Council, than to be left a docile member without its own voice and the voice of others in the international community being heard. Obaid also points out that this is the beginning of Saudi effort to exercize its own influence in the Middle East, as it faces three separate developments in 2013- the Iranian rapprochement with the West under new president Rouhani, the Arab Awakening and the new consciousness in the Middle East, the U.S. policy under president Obama of not taking leadership in the Middle East. This also comes as the Saudis parted ways with the Obama administration on the role of the military in Egypt, and has differences with Turkey and Quatar on support for Islamic groups in Egypt and Syria....