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It can be a bit overwhelming, time for a pause, to close the Borders in Europe and in US, to do it together as a Nation. Republican Senator Lankford and senior members of Congress   negotiated the legislation to restrict immigration and close the southern border. It would be signed into law in January 2024 by Biden says Lankford in NYT after 30 years of inaction. The negotiated bill came up 2 months later in March by which time it was stopped by Trump Republicans as an issue for the election. Harris promise is to sign it into law, close the Border. Meanwhile in Springfield Ohio, population of 80,000 in 1960 declined to 59,000 in 2020 dropping 25% over the 60 year period with the decline of the Rust belt towns in the midwestern region of the US. A program that protects people from gang related violence in home country legally allowed 15,000 Haitian immigrants to settle in the city, people who now drive Amazon delivery vehicles and work in nursing occupations and in restaurants, in towns that have severe staff shortages. WIth the influx of refugees from Venezuela at the southern border, this has created anti-immigration sentiment in some parts of America, even as some of the refugees work to fill shortages in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas, as shown in the WSJ, that have decline in population and face severe staff shortages for bus drivers, restaurant workers, and hospital workers. Streams of refugees in earlier eras the Irish, followed by the Germans, followed by Blacks from the South, all followed this path, yet it was also a bit overwhelming, and at these times the nation took a pause. Europe is taking a pause- across Denmark, Sweden, France, the UK- and in the US there is sentiment on all sides for a long pause, to regroup, to reflect and focus on the national goals of binging up the middle class, the lower income classes, and the nation as a whole after the distortions from tech and economic theory induced distortions hurt the working people and families, and hurt rural areas. ...

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Portugal in 2012-2013 stands as a good case study of what is good and what is bad about austerity measures, about what makes sense and is needed and what does not make sense and is bad both in a fiscal sense and for growth. Patricia Knowsmann does a good job of bringing this out, from the hundreds of stories written about austerity vs growth in the media. During 2011-2012, the elected government of Passos Coelho has supported an EU-IMF-ECB program that reduced wages, raised taxes, privatized state owned companies and changed labor laws that reduced hiring by businesses. During this time the Portuguese have patiently accepted the program compared to other countries and the budget deficit is shrinking from 9.8% in 2010 to an expected 5% in 2012. The unemployment rate has gone up to 15%. Now a new plan by prime minister Coelho in September has created an uproar and sparked popular opposition to the austerity measures threatening what has been achieved in deficit reduction, including the credibility of the austerity program. The plan is to reduce the portion of salaries that employers contribute to the social security system from 23.5% to 18%, in the hope that employers would increase hiring. At the same time it increases the portion of salaries employees pay from 11% to 18%. Coelho was looking at Germany and Slovenia where employees pay more than 20% of salaries to Social Security. What he failed to look at was the situation in Portugal where workers and pensioners have lost about 24% of their income through wage cuts and tax increases. The new plan would reduce incomes even further. Portugal's small business owners expressed strong disapproval for the plan because it would mean a drastic drop in consumer spending. The president of a Portuguese shoe maker, Kyaia, with 600 employees, says it makes no sense to reduce companies contribution if the company can't sell enough shoes to keep its workers. Kyaia has already experienced a 25% decline in demand and its CEO Fortunato Frederico, says he cannot understand how a company can hire workers if demand declines. This impact on consumer demand and sentiment is a fact that policymakers cannot ignore throughout the eurozone as austerity measures are implemented, especially when demand has already declined to an unacceptable point. The move by Coelho ignored a study by Portugal's finance ministry and central bank that showed export businesses may be induced to hire from the savings in contributions, but the businesses serving the domestic market would simply take in the savings. The EU-IMF-ECB recognized this and suggested increasing taxes to pay for the reduction in employer contributions, which would also depress demand by reducing incomes further. Portugal's economy and business is not focussed on exports, small business makes up 97% of Portugal's companies and most of them do not export. The introduction of such a plan gives credibility to the idea that there is a transfer of wealth from workers to business under the austerity programs, which affects the credibility of the entire deficit reduction and competitiveness improvement programs. For Coelho it also means the strong opposition of a minority party in his coalition government and from members of his Social Democratic Party. Large demonstrations were held on Sept 15 in 40 cities in Portugal in the first large scale opposition to further austerity measures and the Coelho social security contribution plan. Capital markets in Europe also see a problem with such plans because it removes the essential element of popular acceptance of deficit reduction plans jeopardizing the entire program. After the failure to win popular acceptance in Greece capital markets see additional risks and failures as one too many for the eurozone. ...

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Actually some of this is a healthy development as more nations and people have a stake in the world economy. Take the Brazil situation for example . Clearly the Brazilian people are more favorable to globalization and its benefits than they were a decade ago at the height of the Asian crisis and the contagion effect on Brazil. Actually the advantages of free trade and a global trading system that benefits Brazil as well as China and India and other countries that buy its commodities such as iron ore is more now than ever because these nationas are benefitting from this trade. Because of the high prices of commodities and the agricultural products of Brazil, it has a currrent account surplus and its currency is strengthening. Instead of having to go to the IMF for assistance Brazil has large foreign exchange reserves that support its currency and which help it push up its investments as a share of GDP from 19% to closer to 25%, which should enable it to sustain about 5% growth year after year., according to Sergio Vale of MB Associados. A strong real, lower interest rates, and consumer credit have boosted the purchasing power of the middle class and the antipoverty programs of the Lula government have helped the poorer classes have a stake in the development. According to a recent Observador/Ipsos survey 23 million Brazilians have left social classes D and E and joined class C whose distinctive markings are a rented apartment, a car and some new gadgets. Actually quite to the contrary of the impression created by this article Brazil according to a former central bank governor is now showing a new enthusiasm for this kind of development which encompasses free trade and markets, a feeling that the stockmarket is not a casino and being part of the world economy is a good thing. The big discoveries of oil at Tupi and Carioca-Sugar Loaf in Atlantic offshore waters by Petrobras even though they are in miles deep waters and require special expertise must only have reinforced this mood. The danger to Brazil's enthusiasm comes not from nationalism of different countries trying to find better ways of meeting the aspirations of their people but from the risks in a global slowdown that started with the US subprime and mortgage crisis, the resulting credit tightening, and fall in consumption thats expected after years of overspending by the American consumer. Its now upto these individual countries, like Brazil, China, India and Russia, Japan as well as Germany France and other countries that are not directly part of the housing bubble and subprime and mortgage securitization mess affecting the USA, and the UK and Ireland and Spain to a lesser extent, to find ways of maintaining more modest but still substantial growth to meet the growing aspirations of people in these countries. In this sense the policy errors and regulatory errors made during this last decade in the US will actually have hurt the world economy and markets in a serious manner, and it is this that has now to be managed in a better way by these countries with the close cooperation between them and the USA. The situation in Brazil is repeated in the experience of India, China and Russia where for the first time there is enthusiasm for being part of the world economy. In the light of this development there is more reason for hope and more need for careful navigation mechanisms for these and other countries to weather the difficulties from a global slowdown and still sustain development that itself could help the USA work its way out of the current crisis through its exports....

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The story of Eiji Toyoda is largely the story of the modern Toyota company. He guided the company as president from 1967 to 1982 and following that as chairman and senior advisor, a service that spans the entire period from the formation of Toyota during the 1930's by Sakichi Toyoda and his son Kiichiro Toyoda till today. Eiji was Sakichi Toyoda's nephew, and 18 years younger than Kiichiro. He worked in the company's textile loom business in the early days before the formation of the company to manufacture automobiles as an entrepreneurial venture by Sakichi and Kiichiro. An auobiography by Eiji Toyoda pubished by Kodansha in 1985 tells the story- Toyota- Fifty Years In Motion. Most of the prewar period was spent manufacturing buses and motorized vehicles for the military. It was after visits to Ford's Rouge automobile plant in Detroit in the fifties that Eiji first picked up the ideas for a suggestion system and getting workers to provide ideas and make improvements that later became kaizen. Eiji was born in 1913 before the beginning of the first world war and passed away at the age of 100 in 2013. He lived a remarkable life that witnessed most of the events of the twentieth century, the transition from a militaristic to a peace loving nation, and technological progress in many fields. The technological evolution continues with the development of electric cars. In the early days of the automobile Sakichi had imported a German electric car which was limited by the short battery charge, a limitation Toyota and other companies are still tackling to this day, showing the technological challenges still ahead. The story of Toyota shows pioneering efforts and progress is continuous, as Toyota picked up the ideas from Ford and added new ones of its own for better products. Family companies with dedicated service spanning a century are rare and Toyota is one of these companies. When the recall crisis of 2011 brought the young CEO, Akio Toyoda, Kiichiro's grandson, to the verge of tears at a public event, the memories of a generation of leaders and the need to live up to their ideals and the work that preceded him must have gone through his mind....

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Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, says Germany can move faster than expected to allow shared liability of eurozone debt. He also accepts the need for short term measures such as the European Stability Facility buying bonds of Spain and Italy in private markets to drive down yields. Schauble indicated this flexibility in an hour long interview with the WSJ on June 27, 2012. This comes after Angela Merkel's remarks made in talks with coalition partners the Free Democrats that she would not accept any mutualization of debt in the eurozone in her life time. Schauble reiterated his view that before joint liability of debt can take place there has to be a joint EU fiscal policy, and sequencing was critical. He called for a EU fiscal commissioner arrangement for reviewing EU member budgets and policies. At the same time he said Germany was open to some level of mutual financial support between members of the eurozone, under the right conditions.

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The Gallois Report and France's efforts to improve competitiveness under the Hollande administration.

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This WSJ editorial says despite his call for "hard-hitting sanctions" prime minister Cameron of Britain has not taken action to stop the flow of "dirty money" from Russia into the City of London. About $75 billion left Russia so far in 2014 in capital flight as the Russian elite shifts money overseas including to the City of London. France has a planned $1.6 billion sale of Mistral naval ships to Russia, and will need the British example to cancel this sale. Putin's strategy is to distance Europe from the U.S. In the EU countries opposing tougher sanctions are Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Netherlands suffered the most with 193 Dutch citizens killed in the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine.

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Only 61% of shareholders present at the annual general meeting voted in approval of the management at Deutsche Bank in May 2015. Legal settlements and lack of trust in strategies of management have hurt credibility. A large part of the lack of credibility comes from the culture at Deutsche Bank which is seen as slow to change. Co-CEO Jain was head of the investment bank when traders engaged in activities that are causing large legal settlements for wrongdoing. Strong criticism came at the annual meeting from shareholders. Han-Martin Buhlmann of the shareholder association VIP raised the question: "Mr. Jain, are you the solution to the problem or part of it?" Alison Esse, managing director of change consultancy, The Storytellers, says shareholders had voted no-confidence against senior management because they lack the credibility to restore the reputation of the bank.

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Andy Grove makes this passionate plea for the dignity of workers in America in 2010. It is worth reading in 2020 what this founder of Intel Corp and pioneering spirit of Silicon Valley has to say. Andy Grove of Intel says there is something seriously wrong when the unemployment rate in the Bay Area is higher than the 9.7% national average for the USA. American companies have added jobs like crazy in Asia, but things are sputtering back home. Hon Hai has 800,000 employees and makes most of the electronic and computer products for American companies. Grove says startups are not the answer, unless they scale up and create jobs the way Intel did starting back in 1968, with a $3 million capital infusion by investors. The move from the first production model to mass production is critical, as companies hire thousands of people. Innovation and scaling up have to go together. He makes his point clearly by pointing out that Apple has 25,000 employees. For every Apple employee there are 10 employees in China working on Apple iMacs, iPods, iPhones. And he adds that the same 10 to 1 relationship applies to other U.S. tech companies. And here Grove asks the tough question by first posing an answer. He says it sounds like- no big deal, we keep the high paying jobs, we keep most of the profits, but what kind of society are we going to have with highly paid professional workers and lots of people unemployed? And he doesn't mention that there are a lot more young people unemployed. He says the US has become very inefficient at creating tech jobs, and it would be a great mistake not to act decisively early on. And adds that the investments in such areas as solar power and electric car batteries have to be made early on to maintain leadership in these areas. Grove faults academics like Alan Blinder and others who say loss of manufacturing jobs and whole industries was no big deal. The U.S. has forgotten the value of manufacturing jobs. He wants to see America focus on jobs and rebuild its industrial base. And less of transferring engineering knowhow and new technologies overseas, technology that can help bring innovation and scaling up of factories at home. In his view individual companies doing their own thing, in a misguided fashion that jobs don't matter, is not the answer to the situation we face. The industrial economies of Asia, China at the present day, have focussed on jobs and technology, and scaled up. Grove reminds readers of the situation in America in 1932, when jobless veterans demonstrating outside the White House in large numbers were dispersed by soldiers with live ammunition and fixed bayonets. This makes him shudder at the very thought of it, and brings back memories of his early years in Hungary, as a young man in 1956. Are we listening? ...

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Bundesbank President Axel Weber told German lawmakers that Greece may need as much as 80 billon euros to avoid default. He said Greece's situation is deteriorating and "the numbers are changing all the time." Weber is a member of the ECB's governing council and a leading candidate to succeed Trichet as ECB President. So far Greece has 30 billion euros approved by the eurozone countries and 15 billion euros expected from the IMF.

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Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, tells Italian newspaper La Repubblica on September 1, 2014, that Russian president Putin made some abnormal remarks in a phone conversation. Responding to Barroso's question about whether Russian troops had crossed into eastern Ukraine, Putin is reported to say: "That is not the question... But if I wanted to, I could take Kiev in two weeks." The WSJ editorial on September 3 referred to an earlier editorial on "Putin Bonaparte," giving some idea of how such comments by Putin are seen in the media, and how Putin's actions in Ukraine are creating new tensions with the NATO alliance and the U.S.

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Britain's new prime minister, Boris Johnson, asks the EU to scrap the Irish backstop. The so-called  Irish backstop was designed to help preserve the fragile peace in Northern Ireland and keep the border with Ireland open. The Irish prime minister Varadkar has insisted on this part of the previously negotiated Brexit deal under Theresa May.

Angela Merkel's policy spokesperson in the Bundestag, the GErman parliament, says it is "impossible" that this would be taken out of any withdrawal agreement. 

Mr. Johnson also said that Remainer Tory MP's efforts to use parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit, something brought up by Mr. Varadkar in his talk with Johnson, would not be allowed to stop Britain leaving the European Union on October 31st. This is what he will tell Merkel in an upcoming meeting.

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The basic architecture to support the euro currency is being proposed in a seven page report prepared by presidents of the EU Council, the ECB, the EC and the Eurogroup. This includes deposit insurance to protect against a run on banks, a European bank supervisor with possibly the ECB in that role, and the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund, acting as a backup if deposit and resolution funds need support. Currently the European Banking Authority setup after the 2008 crisis works with central banks of the individual countries to regulate the banks. In contrast to sanctions imposed for overspending under prior EU agreements the report says new powers would be transferred to a European Authority on the fiscal side so that overspending can be controlled at the European level and budget deficits are set at the European level.

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Fred Hiatt of The Washington Post describes U.S. president Obama's mishandling of Syria during his second term as president leading to the situation today.

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Prime minister Monti of Italy played a key role in getting Germany to accept short term measures for the eurozone crisis. This includes having the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone's bailout fund, buying govenment bonds of Spain and Italy directly in private markets to reduce the unsustainably high yields on these bonds. The plans proposed by the EU include setting up a European banking regulator.

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Zalmay Khalizad, a former diplomat to Iraq, reports from Iraq after discussions with prominent Iraqis, describes the state of U.S. relations with Iraq under the Abadi government. He says the Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq prime minister Abadi, and Iraqi public opinion, now favor improved relations with the U.S. following the sectarianism promoted by prime minister Maliki and Iran's expanded role in Iraq. Other reports show Iraqi opinion in transition as the U.S. withdrawal promoted by Maliki has led to 2 million refugees, and huge dislocation of people with the expansion of Islamic State from Syria into Iraq. The change in opinion is also towards promoting better relations with Sunni countries. People in the region do not see a bright future with an increase in religious tensions that only lead to more destructive behaviours and increase in refugees. Towards the end of the Bush administration there was some hope that Iraq would see a bright future, only to see this reversed under Maliki's sectarian policies. U.S. public opinion has shifted away from any involvement following the failure of the people in the region to resolve differences and live peacefully. The cost of the wars with little gained as a result of the failure of the people in the region to work together in the common interest is a part of the public debate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. Sectarianism in the region is the root cause of the growth of the Islamic State and the expansion of the war in Syria, and this has not only worsened the situation for the people in the region, delayed economic development given large oil resources, and left the region worse off than before. It has also led to the refugee flow into Europe worsening the situation in the European Union, adding to tensions in European societies such as France, Germany, Denmark and Sweden, following terrorist attacks and political parties promoting fear of immigrants. What started as a U.S. response to terrorism originating in this region in New York, followed by the war in Iraq, has led to more convulsions in this region, a huge number of refugees, whole country populations displaced, and requires a fresh rethinking about what people in the region can do to live and work together and promote the peaceful participation of people in their own development and growth, before Western societies consider further involvement. The statement about lost to Iran in the title also suggests framing of statements in the old way that are the root of the problem. When the dust settles years from now Iranians, Iraqis, Saudis, Yemeni, Turkish, Pakistani, Indian and other Muslim societies may want to look back at this period as reflecting the dangers of getting caught up in the geopolitics of world powers, letting religious sentiment override calmer thinking, and reflect on the brighter aspects of the common Islamic heritage in Iran, Turkey, India, expressed humanly as it is always is in different ways and forms. They can also take hope and confidence in the fact that European societies have struck the same rocks and emerged calmer, wiser, and better than before....

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The India Pakistan issues have already evolved into India China issues. And the competition between the US and China has consequences for India, the European Union and the rest of the world. As the US seeks to regain its industrial base and reduce overconcentration of manufacturing in China, India is at the stage of a manufacturing effort that is similar to Japan's in the 1920's and 1970's and China's in the 1990's. It will take place over the next two decades. This is the crucial event for Asia that will see the emergence of not two but three nations in Asia- Japan, China and India as modern manufacturing nations.  The talk about military action popular in the media misrepresents the real issues which are economic and ignore the turning point in 2025 with the Ukraine war putting the European Union and Germany's position of concentration of production in China as untenable. For the US DJT represents a second effort to bring serious manufacturing back to the US and allies such as India. This will be the deciding change in Asia and the world by 2030, 2035 and 2040, as India will make the decisive change to a modern nation similar to the US and Europe. This will open up opportunities for 1.4 billion people in India and a related 300 million people in Indonesia. ...

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The mood in the UK is becoming less receptive to foreigners as job losses mount and the economy declines. For a long period under Labor administrations openness to foreign investment served Britain well. From 2004 to 2007 foreign investment accounted for 7.4% of UK's GDP compared with 1.4% in the USA and 1.6% in Germany. Immigration tripled under Labor governments. Now the mood is shifting as job losses mount. Unemployment which was 4.7% in 2005, was 6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008. Estimates by IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, shows that unemployment could reach 10.5% by early 2011. Government figures indicate that the number of British workers in the country went down by 234,000 to 27 million in the last quarter of 2008. The number of foreign workers went up by 175,000 to 2.4 million. About 104,000 jobs were lost in the 4th quarter of 2008. During the period from 1995 to today manufacturing accounts for a smaller portion of the British economy, going from 21% to 14%. In this new climate French owner Total SA faced strikes at it Immingham oil refinery for not hiring British workers for an expansion at the refinery. It offered to set aside 102 of 200 temporary construction jobs for British workers. And public anger is evident about things that earlier would have aroused passing interest. One example was for a plan to sell part of the British postal service with the Dutch or the Danish as buyers. Another an award by the government to the Japanese of acontract to build and operate a fleet of high speed trains. And immigration is emerging as the third biggest ocncern of in the country, according to a survey by Ipsos MORI, after the economy and crime, the fourth being unemployment. Actually immigration and unemployment are strongly related, and both are related to the economy, all issues related to the steep downturn, especially to the collapse of the financial industry in London....