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The artificial nature of the target of debt to GDP of 120% for Greece in 2020. This is the target being followed in negotiations by the troika of the ECB, IMF and the EU. Experts say the sustainable level would be much lower for Greece -this would be much lower because of the aging population in Greece and lower level of workers to support retirees in future years, the inefficient tax collection system and poor prospects for changing it, the degree of control over monetary policy and the rate of change of debt. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements shows debt sustainability at 85% after studying 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. No precise source has been found for the 120% target. An IMF Report in 2011 said the 120% was the "maximum level considered sustainable." Alan Auerbach at UC Berkeley and Michael Woodford at Columbia University, say the additional factors are relevant to Greece. The many unpredictables over the course of ten years is another serious difficulty.

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Unemployment in Germay has dropped from 12% 5 years ago to 7% in 2010. The largest union IG Metall (with 3.4 million members) and other worker unions showed wage restraint. IG Metall agreed to keep wages the same in 2010 except for a one time payment of 320 euros. This empasis on job preservation may change as wages have been restrained since reforms in 2005. At that time unemployment benefits were cut and people with less skills were induced to take up lower paying jobs. German recovery is also helped by the short week Kurzarbeit program with companies retaining workers, the government paying upto 67% of the wages lost from the shorter week and workers agreeing to a reduction in wages. Companies like BMW are hiring and BMW has 1000 jobs to fill in its R&D, purchasing and sales. And Germany has benefited in sales from stimulus in China and the growing demand for automobiles and equipment from China, a situation that auto executives believe may not last.

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On one of the major issues of 2014-2015 U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky provides conviction and vigorous defense of liberties. Senator Rand Paul made this the centerpiece of his campaign for the U.S. presidential election of 2016. On May 30, 2016, Rand Paul said: "Tomorrow, I will force the expiration of the NSA illegal spy program. I believe we must fight terrorism, and I believe we must stand strong against our enemies. But we do not need to give up who we are to defeat them. In fact, we must not." With Republicans split on this issue, the strong defense of liberties taken by Rand Paul makes it certain that the Patriot Act will expire on May 31, 2015, and the NSA bulk surveillance of phone data will end. Both the American Civil Liberties Union and the conservative Tea Party Patriots have praised the extensive debate on the issue of the damage done by such surveillance tactics. Both the ACLU and the Tea Party see the need to let the 2001 Patriot Act and legislation supporting bulk data surveillance to expire....

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Analysts say the large growth in orders for Boeing and Airbus is likely to slow with lower oil prices. Access to cheap financing and high oil prices at $100-$120 a barrel led to a surge in orders. With oil below $50 in Jan. 2015 this is likely to change. A study by Ascend, an aviation consultancy, shows about 50% of the orders in the last 5 years were for replacement aircraft compared to the longer term trend of 43%. Airlines are likely to hold on to older aircraft for longer with lower oil prices. Boeing's head of market analysis, says the airlines will still benefit from fuel efficient aircraft such as the Boeing 737 max and the Airbus neo with 20% less fuel cost, even at current fuel prices. Airlines will still need to plan for growth. And Airbus executives say the fuel price levels could go up in the future as inventories fall. In the Asian market overcapacity is a problem with falling airline prices and reduced profitability of Asian carriers.

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Analysts at Citigroup predict that Bank of America might record a$3.6 billion loss for fourth quarter 2008. It appears that Bank of America may have overreached in acquiring 2 troubled firms Countrywide and Merrill. WIth $25 billion in TARP funds already given to Bank of America, Bank of America has informed Treasury that without additional funding it may not be able to complete the acquisition of Merrill. Treasury and Bank of America are negotiating these additional funds. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs analysts estimate worsening losses from the credit and financial crisis. Losses says Goldman economists could reach $1.1 trillion from residential mortgages alone up from $780 billion earlier estimate. Adding in losses from commercial real estate, credit cards, auto and business debt could send this figure up to $ 2.1 trillion. And bad overseas loans of US institutions would be additional to this. Not surprisingly Fed Chairman Bernanker would like to see much of the second half tranche of $350 billion in TARP funds ging to stabilize the financial system....

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With huge losses at RBS, Prime Minister Brown says he is angry at RBS for the excessive risks taken by the bank. A big chunk of losses of 28 billion pounds for 2008 relate to the deal to acquire ABN-Amro. ABN Amro had on its portfolio a loan to chemical maker LyondellBasell, owned by Len Blavatnik a Russian-American industrialist, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January 2009. Says RBS CEO Stephhen Hester, "we doubled up at the wrong time". Now RBS shares have fallen to 11.6 pence or less than the price of a candy bar. And Brown's administration faces growing criticism that the earlier bank rcapitalization and lending plan has not worked, even as new elections are due by May 2010. With the new deal with RBS government ownership goes up from 58% to 70%, and the next step may be nationalization of RBS. In an effort to limit banks losses and help capital needs of banks, the UK government will insure a majority of losses after the banks assume a first portion of the losses.

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A number of factors hitting at the same time Chinese factories in the south, in Guangdong province and the Pearl River delta. Currency exchange rates, stricter labor laws, eliminated government tax benefits and incentives, stricter pollution laws, high oilprices, and higher wages, all have combined to make the apparel and footwear factories in the south less profitable and harder to run. In recent years about 10% of the footwear makers in the province have closed operations. Manuy are smaller operations. About 10% of the 60,000 to 70,000 HongKong owned factories in the delta region will close in 2008. Not just apparel companies making products for HP and Apple have longer term plans to shift production to othcountries. Hon Hai Precision Manufacturing Company has said it will quintuple its planned investment in Vietnam to $5 billion. Apparel makers VF corporation which owns labels like North Face and Nautica says it takes 30 days from Cambodia compared to 20-25 days from China to get product on retail shlves so the advantage of China in this respect is also diminishing...

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The small size of the German stimulus plan, $12 billion of new spending over 2 years, 0.25% of GDP, even though German budget was close to balance in 2007 and may be in surplus this year. The reservations about spending arise from the feeling in Germany that spending packages in the 1970's produced little stimulus and aded new debt. When people see the new debts and taxes headed up people tend to save more and spend even less says Scheide of the Kiel Institute of the World Economy. And the coalition of CDU and SPD had set 2011 as year to balance the budget, so the prevailing wisdom is that spending packages do not work and the term economic package is unpopular in Germany. So finance minister Peer Steinbruck says the small stimulus package is not of the old style. But as the economy deteriorates and exports slump, aid may be provided to small and midsized companies, and investments in transport and early education, subsidies for energy conservation and help to the car industry.

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WHy did NHS Test and Trace fail to contact no more than 50% of the persons who tested positive. Why was it not able to followup with the people who needed to be visited in their homes to ensure isolation. Why was NHS associated in the name when the NHS had not been consulted and involved in the design of this service. In fact it ignored lessons from Germany where the contact tracing was entirely from local, started very quickly with the key being local or state employees who were diverted to this task and were skilled and motivated to do it. Why was this critical task simply handed out to outsource it to private companies.  Germany's example was there very early in March-April and it was working. Why reinvent the wheel. Setup quickly and entirely local it required only a desk, a desktop PC, and a national database to which PC was connected, the skilled caller being the key to getting people to talk to and cooperate. About 80% of those testing positive needed to be contacted. NHS Test and Trace was reaching about 50% and many that needed to be visited at home could not be followed up quickly. The shift is only now being made to go local. It worked in Leicester and other places but the learning came the hard way, as with many things during this pandemic. ...

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This beautiful DW.com video shows the use of face masks in vibrant colors and styles is in the hope that it will become popular. It is of great importance in the fight to stop the spread of coronavirus. A large part of people who have coronavirus are asymptomatic and are a big problem as spreaders of the virus, say health experts. The Robert Koch Institute in Germany recommends use of face masks. Jena is the first city in Germany making them mandatory. Other cities will follow, only not soon enough,

Face masks to prevent spreading the virus are a way of life in China, South Korea. Then why is it so difficult for Europe and the U.S.? Czech Republic and Slovakia have made face masks mandatory. The Center for Disease Control in the U.S. are now revising their guidelines to require people to wear face masks to avoid the spread of the virus, cloth masks or scarfs could be used also.

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About 41% of Unilever's $53 billion in sales come from developing countries, up from 22% in 1990. In 2006 developing world sales increased by 8%, sales in Europe only 1%, and sales in the USA only 2.4%. This shows the growing significance of developing countries sales to Unilever. With head offices in Rotterdam and London, Unilever was formed from a 1930 merger of a Dutch food company and a British soap company. Unilever has been selling its bar soaps and cooking oils in the Dutch and British Empires, in countries like India, Indonesia, and South Africa since the 1880's. CEO Patrick Cescau is focussed on promoting products in fast growing regions of the world. The management structure is being changed to recruit new and nurture promising managers in countries like India and South Africa. These managers are being trained in western countries to learn new marketing methods, and are being asked to come up with their own new ideas for products from scratch for developing countries with low price points. Its not about adapting existing western products, but dreaming up new ones for low income shoppers. Its introducing a product called Cubitos- miniature bouillion cubes - tailored to low income shoppers in 25 developing markets and their tastes, for as little as 2 cents. The stakes are huge. Its competitors like P&G are doing this in Mexico. Nestle is expanding in Brazil with a new plant dedicated to shoppers making less than $10 a day, and setting up a distribution network to sell to small stores in shantytowns in Latin America. Unilever estimates are that 1.2 billion consumers will buy packaged goods for the first time in 2010, mostly all in the developing world. Detergent sales are soaring in places like India, as shoppers use powders to clean their clothes, moving up from bar soaps. Estimates are that each week 40,000 people in Asia use a washing machine for the first time. ...

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Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

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At the 2 day summit in Brussels Sarkozy and Brown are pushing for tougher oversight of banks. Brown wants strict standards for capital reserves of the banks and having financial markets open their books.

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Left party Syriza did better than the government parties in the EU elections. A new parliamentary election would have to be called if prime minister Samaras cannot find the 180 votes needed to elect a new president in Feb. 2014. Syriza is calling for writeoff of some of the massive 318.6 billion euros of debt owed, 85% of it to France, Germany and other foreign governments and IMF. To offset Syriza's popularity Samaras is likely to use the improved confidence of investors in Greece to raise funds on capital markets, and access funds from a Stability Fund. By exiting the IMF program early and not taking 12 billion euros of IMF funds due for 2015-2016, Samaras can take independent steps to revive the Greek economy and reduce the burden of cuts. Greece will run a primary budget surplus before interest payments in 2014, as it did in 2013. GDP is down about 25% and unemployment is at 26%. Anger in the early years reflected in Athens riots, is now replaced with anguish and despair among ordinary Greeks and some public suicides. The current debt repayments is for debt to be repaid to IMF in 10 years and the EU loans in 32 years, with 10 years of interest payments at 1.5%. Even then the debt is already at 178% of GDP, way above the initial target of 124% of GDP set by IMF-EU for 2020. As a backup strategy German officials including Asmussen and Schauble, and ECB's Draghi are meeting with Mr. Tsipras of Syriza to ensure a smooth transition if this becomes necessary, without the uncertainty in financial markets created by earlier Greece elections....

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Prof. Cusumano of MIT, says that with the loss of Apple's Steve Jobs, the company has lost a great visionary, and it will be difficult for Apple's new CEO Time Cook to make up for this loss. Cusumano has talked to many Apple employees in 2013-2014, and is writing a book on innovation. In this piece Chen and Richtel point out the ways Tim Cook is trying to fill the role Jobs filled, by assembling a group of people within the company who can play the pioneering role for new products, and making new acquisitions such as the Beats acquisition to bring in outside talent. Cook pushed for the introduction of the iPad Air, which now accounts for 60% of all iPad sales. The constant push for the magic in new products that Steve Jobs obsessed with down to details, will be missing. Jobs met daily with design chief Jonathan Ive for lunch at the Cupertino headquarters. Cook meets Ive 3 times a week. And Jobs pulled all the pieces of the new product together in a way that others will have difficulty doing. Cook has brought a different dimension to leadership at Apple by talking about Apple in terms of "advancing humanity," talking about his own personal experiences in the South, and seeing racial discrimination barriers for minorities. He was challenged recently to address issues of working conditions at Apple supplier factories in China. Cook is bringing some manufacturing back to the U.S. with building of new plants in Arizona and Texas. These are areas which were gaps in Jobs record, which Cook is filling gradually, and asking shareholders, customers, to be patient....

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 India would be 27% richer if it rebalanced its workforce to include more women, according to the IMF. Women's participation in the workforce is the lowest of the G20 countries except Saudi Arabia. Contributing only one sixth of economic output, half the global average. The employment rate of women in India has dropped instead of rising from its low level, an alarm signal. It was 35% in 2005, now in 2018 it is 26%. In the last decade the economy has more than doubled in size and number of working age women, according to the IMF is 470 million. Part of the reason is that more girls are in school. Conservative social rules mean that women are discouraged by their families or in-laws from working outside the home. As families become richer more women stop working. The lack of manufacturing jobs is also a constraint. Men have taken 90% of the 36 million jobs in industry created since 2005. Census data show that more than one third of women would take jobs if they were available. Urbanization and the shift to cities means less work in farming, mechanization of farming makes for less agricultural work. Changes in attitudes and better policies for maternity leave and women friendly workplace could help. Because most of the jobs are still in the informal economy, this is not as effective today but could make a difference in the future as more formal jobs are generated. Attitudes where men do more housework can make a difference. If men spent about 2 hours doing dishes and putting kids to bed, there would be a 10% increase in women's participation rate in the workforce, according to a World Bank study. One study shows this would add 550 billion dollars to India's economy. True especially as more women are getting university degrees and high school education. and the census study shows women have the desire to work if cultural attitudes, more men doing housework, and the job market were to change.       ...

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Indian finance minister Sitharaman announces a new stimulus package "Atman Nirbhar Bharat." This includes an effort to incentivize creation of employment opportunities for people making less than Rs. 15,000 a month ($215 a month), called "Atman Nirbhar Rozghar Yojana, for a period of 2 years. Sitharaman cited stock market rebound and foreign reserves reaching $560 billion to show that along with the government efforts and planned infrastructure the economy would make a robust recovery. Because of India's large informal economy help to street vendors and other small retail is critical in the Indian economy. The finance minister cited the "One Nation, One Ration Card" which allows street vendors and other retail merchants to access foodgrains from FPS of choice in 28 states and union territories in India. This is part of the effort to build demand and upward mobility in the economy. The names given for these efforts or yojanas are unique- PM SVANidhi stands for PM's Street Vendors Atmannirbhar Nidhi. Atmannirbhar is the overall plan for self reliance in the economy and the prime minister Modi has pushed for buying Made in India, to promote jobs and technology + capital accumulation in Indian manufacturing. India took a blow from the coronavirus with close to 9 million infected by the virus and lockdown in March. By September 20 the daily cases reached 100,000, and by November 10 the daily cases have dropped to 44,000. Social distancing and mask wearing are widely accepted in India. India has other advantages in the large pharmaceutical industry and access to drugs at government regulated and low prices as part of the planned effort after independence in 1947. Other aspects of Indian life are cultural preference for vegetables and fruits in the diet, and spices, herbs in cooking, yoga practice, which are anti-inflammatory and promote healthy living.  With the largest population in the world the region in the Indian ocean comprising the countries of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Burma and Indonesia, former parts of the British and Dutch empires, is a region where the coronavirus posed a great threat to human life. An early carefully orchestrated lockdown by prime minister Modi  helped with the message in March that India faced a singular choice - between going back 21 years in development or controlling the coronavirus in 21 crucial days. The setting up of the direct transfer of money to bank accounts  of farmers, urban street vendors and lower income people in rural areas by giving everyone a bank account under a government plan early in the first term of the current administration enabled it to send aid directly when coronavirus hit the country. Other schemes included cooking gas for women in rural areas who depended on firewood for cooking. These schemes and sanitation infrastructure setup under the Clean India campaign, helped India build an element of resilience when coronavirus hit.  The government plan to remove interstate barriers to commerce and integrate tax system collection at the federal level, bringing parts of the informal economy into the formal economy, have increased revenues that now finance an infrastructure plan that hopes to match the one in China over the next decade.   ...

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The politics of BP's Russian venture TNK-BP Ltd. Are the 3 Russian partners , some remaining Russian oligarchs you could call them, trying to find a way to get the maximum for a future sale either to Gazprom or BP, as BP is separately working on a broad partnership with Gazprom.

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China's Environment Ministry has not released the results of a soil survey from across China. Independent estimates from Nanjing Agricultural University in a 2007-2008 survey showed about 10% of rice in China contaminated by high levels of cadmium. In May 2013 officials found a large number of samples of rice from markets in Guangzhou contaminated with cadmium. Cadmium is a carcinogenic metal that damages the kidneys and weakens bones when unknowingly taken in excessive levels.

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Germany's SPD Deputy Chancellor says in Kiev on August 25, 2025 after the abortive effort by DJT in Alaska for peace talks that improved Russia -US relations as two leading world nuclear powers but did not have the basics in place for Ukraine- Russia direct talks, with Putin asking for territory in the east. "In the three and a half years that this war has been going on, we have always shown that we are not ducking away, but stand by the side of the Ukrainians. And that will also apply to security guarantees."  The big change is that the SPD under Klingbeil in Germany is now working with CDU's Merz to build up Germany's defense forces to act as a deterrent for Europe. There is a change in the mood in Germany and in Europe, from Sweden and UK , France, Italy, for concerted action in Europe that was not seen before. By taking on responsibilities for Europe with 2-5% defense expenditures this has removed the differences between the US and Europe. It means a prolongation of the war but also means this may lead to a stronger Europe, better Russia- US relations, and a Russian and Ukraine more willing to come to a peace agreement based on terms where no side appears to be the loser. Klingbeil added- It is important to have a "really strong Ukrainian army that is also capable of defense. And the second thing is that armaments production is also being ramped up here in Ukraine as well, thereby putting Ukraine in a position to defend itself and deter attacks." If European history since 1400 is any guide when the powers on either side were eventually counterbalanced the power that took a an aggressive position early had to settle for a peace settlement with both sides not appearing the loser. ...