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Risk taking CEO's steps at Shell appear to be paying off as Shell's share price does better than BP's. Better results in hiring, technology, management streamlining, in sourcing non-conventional output, and Libyan deal coming after restructuring of its Russian exploration project, all show improved prospects at Shell after new CEO took over. Jeroen Van der Veer, who assumed the CEO position in 2004, is interviewed by Chip Cummins and Guy Kazan at it London headquarters. Van der Veer took over after the scandal involving Shell's overstating of its oil and as reserves. His early steps were to centralize decisionmaking, do away with the dual board structure based in the Hague and London, and increase hiring of technology professionals. 4500 midcareer professionals were hired in 2006, a new Chief Technology officer was appointed, and seven "chief scientists," creating a new focus on technology development and research, and making technology leadership a critical part of its strategy. Van der Veer also bet heavily on new projects, including a $20 billion oil and LNG project on the island of Sakhalin in Russian Far East, and a $18 billion gas field plus natural gas to diesel plant in Quatar. Jeroen Van der Veer is described by colleagues as a thoughtful but firm and straight talking, low profile guy who joined Shell in 1971, at age 24. He ran a large Dutch refinery, tackling labor problems and implementing an expansion. He has a passion for long distance skating, having twice finished a 200 kilometer race through 11 cities in the Netherlands....

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It appears that P&G and Unilever have caught on to what may be one of the biggest developments in consumer products as the global economy incorporates hundreds of millions of small budget buyers in developing countries from Mexico to India. Just look at the figures here- these high frequency stores like the one in Leon, Mexico mentioned here, bring in per shopper 23 pesos or about $2, with annual sales of about $16 billion. As their incomes increase they could be buyers of the same brands they are accustomed to and move upscale in the years ahead. Another article talked abot Walmart's success in Mexico's urban areas. It appears that there are two trends one of the high frequency stores in the rural areas and the smaller villages and towns, and the other of large stores in the growing urban areas with buyers from the newly affluent urban classes. What is interesting is the close attention that is required to sell to high frequency stores and the sense of respect that needs to be shown for the economy, price and budget, buying habits to tailor products for their special needs. As for example: the one time use Head and Shoulders shampoo that costs 2 pesos, the feminine hygiene pad product with aloe that can be used longer with extra absorbent cotton, the Downy Single Rinse to conserve water usage. All the time the attention to a quality product that delivers and gains sales by word of mouth....

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Compared to the Fed, Treasury and and American regulators hands off approach as the bubble in mortgages and in financial markets developed, China took some steps to restrain the real estate bubble in China. Starting in 2004 Beijing officials tried to limit speculation in real estate by administrative measures like setting quotas on how much real estate lending each bank could do. In August 20007 bank regulators began requiring larger down payments for second and third homes, and banks began charging linterest rates upto 3% points higher for those homes than for first home buyers. And other things make the Chinese market for mortgages quite different. About half of all chinese buy their homes with outright all cash. And down payments are 30% for first time buyers and 40% for buyers who are getting a second home. And male borrowers term of mortgage ends by law a age 60 and 55 for women whichmeans they build up equity in the home quickly and are less likely to walk away from a home. As far as the banks are concerned no securitization of mortgages has ocurred and banks hold a higher percentage of cash with capital equal to 12 to 14% of assets, compared to international regulatory standards of 8%. Prices have fallen by a third inplaces like Shenzen, and the central bank asked commerical banks to reduce mortgage rates and help borrowers with lower down payments, with the hope that this would stabilize home prices. However with the credit crisis economists expect further decline in home prices....

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Night trains are making a comeback in Europe. Nostalgic ideas of travel from way back are when trains were the main forms of transportation. In 2017 European transport emissions were 28% above 1990 levels. The European Green Deal sees cutting these emissions as a priority for meeting climate change. Rail is critical for achieving this. For EU CO2 emissions road transport is largest contributor (73%), aviation (13%) and maritime (11%).Austria's OBB rail system is launching night sleeper trains from Vienna to Brussels and Vienna to Amsterdam.  Competition will increase in rail. Italy's Trenitalia  has applied to EU Agency for Railways (ERA) to operate in France. French SNCF and Trenitalia will enter Spain in June 2020. Critical are capital investments in rail per person for each country. Austria and Switzerland lead, and Germany is 140 euros per person target as part of the 86 billion euro plan in capital investments  for rail over the next ten years. Technical standardization is an important goal- as a stop in Aachen for Austrian railways night train from Vienna to Brussels for 30 minutes because of changing a locomotive and the train driver having to be Flemish. Freight movement by rail is another goal as it is stuck at 17% for years.  The Green Deal in transport in Europe is likely to have an impact around the world as rail makes a comeback for sustainable tourism. ...

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United which is running advertising ads touting its newly designed flat seats on international flights for business class passengers to sleep in like a bed, made $274 millon in the second quarter with improved revenues on its international flighs and lower costs on domestic flights and improved utilization at 89%. Note that even though domestic passengers declined by 2%, United did so much better on international flights with a 16% increase over the prior quarter.

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NHTSA and NASA conclude a 10 month investigation in Feb 2011, saying that "pedal misapplication" not faulty electronics were the likely cause of unintended acceleration of Toyota vehicles.

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The faltering approach on Syria of the Obama administration and the events that lead to the decision on June 13, 2013, to provide arms to the opposition forces.

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A view that there is more pain ahead and more failures of financial companies even after the Fed and Treasury's massive intervention the week ending September 19, 2008.

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Britain's National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) says Glaxo's drug Benlysta for lupus is not "good value for money." The drug is priced at 10,000 pounds a year in the U.K. ($15,600) and much higher at $35,000 a year in the U.S. Benlysta is covered by insurers in the U.S. and some European state run health systems according to Glaxo. NICE also rejected a new multiple sclerosis drug Gilenya, which costs 19,000 pounds a year in the U.K. ($29,700), and $48,000 a year in the U.S.

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Ramon Fernandez is the head of the Treasury in France's Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry. He manages the work done behind the scenes in the eurozone crisis- helping France's finance minister Baroin, French president Sarkozy, Xavier Musca, the presidents chief of staff, and working with his German counterpart Jorg Asmussen. He is self-effacing and says he does what he has to do. His view on the euro is that it will be there ten years from now and stronger.

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Krugman points to the mounting toll of joblessness in America in 2011. He calls the joblessness- six million Americans out of work for more than 6 months and four million jobless for more than one year- America's overriding problem. More than the deficits which he sees as a problem beyond the immediate next couple of years, and the dollar which he says has seen drops larger than the current one during the Bush and Reagan administrations and which presents an opportunity to increase exports. He says the scare stories may distract from the major problem unemployment presents for Americans.

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Sommer describes the effect of a strong dollar on Apple's sales and profits from iPhones worldwide. This in turn affects Apple's share price. Corporate profits in the U.S. declined by 5.1% in 2015, according to the Commerce Department. Between the last quarters of 2014 and 2015 every dollar of Apple sales was reduced by 15 cents when converted into dollars, according to CEO Tim Cook.

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The appreciation of the U.S. dollar and depreciating currencies in Africa in 2015 makes it costlier to import manufactured goods to African countries. Quality Supermarkets in Kampala, Uganda, struggles to fill its shelves with imported packaged foods and manufactured goods. The lack of financing for $30 million in crude supplies leads to the closure of a refinery in Lusaka, Zambia, and long lines at gas stations. The Zambian currency kwacha has depreciated by 17% against the U.S. dollar in 2015. Uganda's currency the shilling, Angola's currency the kwanza, and Nigeria's currency the Naira, all depreciated in 2015. This means larger trade deficits to finance consumer imports or upgrade infrastructure. In Uganda this means delays in upgrades to power lines and transformers. In oil producing countries such as Angola and Nigeria, and oil producers at the early stage such as Uganda and Ghana, there is a double whammy with lower oil prices leading to lower revenues to finance costlier imports. This is likely to slow growth in Africa from about 5% in recent years to 3.7%, according to Capital Economics forecast. Countries in Africa that import oil will see lower import bill for oil, but that benefit eroded by a depreciating currency. South Africa sees benefit of lower oil prices offset by lower revenues from commodity exports of iron ore, and the higher cost of imports with a depreciating currency. ...

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Greek tax evasion is estimated by three economists who studied data from Greek banks at about $11 billion based on a 40% tax rate, a third of the country's annual deficit for 2009. Unreported income is estimated at $28 billion. Doctors, dentists, lawyers, architects, engineers are the biggest groups underreporting income. Greece's parliament took up a bill in 2010 but the bill failed because of oposition from these groups. It remains to be seen if the Samaras government with support of the IMF-EC can take action similiar to that taken by the Monti government in Italy to go after tax evaders. By cutting the minimum wage and incomes of lower income groups disproportionately compared to cracking down on tax evasion and protecting incomes of higher income groups the economic plan for Greece proposed by the IMF-EC and the Greek government becomes unworkable and threatens the social fabric. By not raising this issue Germany's media and government have appeared callous in their pursuit of austerity measures as working class Greeks protested in Athens in 2011-2012, even though some of the issues raised by the Germans are legitimate. France and Italy are imposing a wealth tax to cut the deficit but this is not taking place in Greece. Global financial media has also not reported adequately on these aspects of the problem in Greece and Italy....

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The drop in oil prices in 2014-2015 leads to a decline in the value of Nigeria's currency, the Naira, by over 10% in 2014. The Naira dropped to 186.9 to the dollar by Dec. 2, 2014. The foreign exchange reserves drop to $2 billion in Dec. 2014 from $20 billion in 2008. Investment in infrastructure and the electricity grid is badly needed. Imports of arms for the military add to budgetary strain as the government tackles the Boko Haram terrorist threat in the Kano region. The central bank puts out a revised budget based on an oil price of $73, as Brent crude dropped to $68. Like Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone dependent on iron ore exports, Angola and Mozambique on oil revenues, Zambia on copper, and South Africa on mining exports, much of Africa's economy is dependent on commodity exports. About 80% of Nigeria's government revenue is from oil exports, according to the IMF. And the entire budget for the nation with the largest population in Africa is only $30 billion.

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After suffering a deep depression Greece's economy is in 2019 24% smaller than in 2007. It may not be till 2033 that Greece recovers to its precrisis level GDP, says Oxford Economics, a consulting firm. With the creditors of Greece maintaining a tight control and requiring high taxes and high budget surpluses of 3.5% of GDP excluding interest payments, there is very little financial leeway to reduce taxes as the newly elected government of Mr. Mitsotakis of the New Democracy party has stated. Greece spent 8 years till 2018 under an austerity regime set by the European Union overseen by the IMF with eurozone authorites in return for a financial bailout loan package. Spending cuts and tax increases of 40% of GDP led to drop in GDP of 25%. Greece had misrepresented its official spending numbers to eurozone authorites in the years leading upto the crisis, leading to a lack of sympathy from ordinary German taxpayers for the country's situation. Unlike Portugal which was able to increase exports and find ways to reduce the austerity regime with sympathy from Germany, Greece lags behind in foreign investment and is 72nd in the ease of doing business ranking of the World Bank.  Unemployment is falling very slowly and is at 18%. Greece has returned to bond markets with 10 year bond yields of 10%. Growth is stuck at 2%. Pension spending takes up most of the budget, with little left for investment, education and other needs. No parties talk about cutting pensions anymore as a grandparents pension supports many families. The high taxes have hurt the private sector with the most productive people emigrating to other countries in northern Europe and to other parts of the world. About 500,000 left from 2010 to 2017, most are college graduates, and 64% have postgraduate degrees, a survey shows. Most of them will never return as it  is difficult to live and plan a life on a Greek salary. During the financial crises affecting Latin American countries such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina for decades, the expression lost decade became common. Some like Argentina had repeat situations of lost decade before recovering. Even the U.S. suffered badly suffering close to a lost decade with faulty mortgages causing a crisis in 2009. Only Greece has proved that this can happen for nearly three decades. Greece's experience also sullied the euro currency's image, that was further damaged by the austerity policies across the eurozone's financially weaker countries. Lack of transparency and insider groups unable to take up the national interest and pursuing narrow interests left Greece in a bad position with little sympathy from stronger northern European countries such as Netherlands, Sweden, Germany. Today's political crisis for the centre right and centre left parties in Germany and other Northern European countries such as Scandinavia, Netherlands, also stems from this flawed entry of countries such as Greece into the eurozone with poorly managed finances. A combination of Tech creating low wage jobs, erosion of working class, failure of centrist parties free market policies to protect the working class, shift of jobs to low wage countries such as China, had already eroded the situation. The humanitarian response to what was both a economic and war related migration from North Africa  to Europe only worsened the image of these parties with working class people alienating them further. The eurozone countries and the European Union are only gradually recovering from these errors.     ...

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One big concern says Nancy Keates of the WSJ about the National Association of Realtors, is that the organization collects and puts out objective data about home sales, and at the same time provides a commentary on the statistics. It also has a mission to advance the interests of its members. There are 2.6 million licensed real estate agents, and NAR represents about 1.3 million of these real estate agents. Would the real estate agents and the NAR tolerate an economist who raised concerns about the boom in lending? David Lereah, is former chief economist for the NAR ,and worked there from 2000 to April 2007. He remained upbeat throughout these years, even when the market was headed downwards. And the way he sees it he was doing for 7 years everything the NAR wanted him to do, and he was pressured to issue these upbeat reports. Critics called him "Baghdad Dave", after a Iraqi information minister for his false upbeat reports even when the war on the Iraqi side was lost. And a Credit Suisse analyst called him Liar-eah for some of these upbeat assesments, when things were clearly going wrong. The way Nancy Keates sees it this economist was eager to profit himself in the boom years. He was an economics Professor at Rutgers, at the University of Virginia, and later an economist and regulator at the Federal Deposit and Insurance Corporation. He himself bought condos 2 in Washington in 2003 and 2004, and one each in Tampa, Richmond, Va. and Alexandria, Va. and Naples, Florida. Owning by 2006 six condos worth between $150,000 and $400,000 a condo. He had an expensive lifestyle says his wife, with a big house worth $780,000, a country club, sports fishing boat. So in some ways suggests this reporter, he was caught up in the boom himself with his investments and the demands of a expensive lifestyle, with little room left for independent opinion and analysis. This is a striking example of things gone wrong, with all the meticulousness and comprehensiveness with which data is collected having its value destroyed by the lack of strict objectivity in the analysis. And the intrusion of strong personal interest bias in one direction making the destruction of objectivity complete. Looking at the economists at companies and associations, there is a subtle bias in operation that needs to be discounted by CEO's and association heads, a bias for giving the CEO's better and optimistic assessments on a consistent basis. An example is the way a large number of economists see the recovery taking place in 2009. Another related example is the sales forecasts for the Detroit auto companies that continued to assume sales in the 16-17 million a year rate into the latter half of 2008, even after the Bear Stearns collapse in March and the increasing foreclosures suggested something was amiss. All with horrendous consequences for the companies or industries involved, and the US and global economies....

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Joe Nocera says, that its like the Wizard of Oz story, and the curtain being pulled back to reveal that it was the end of quarter games that enabled GE to make earnings estimates, quarter after quarter, for years. Last April is when the curtain gets pulled back because with the Bear Stearns collapse and the crisis in financial markets, these games could not be played anymore. The fact is that after all the talk about how great GE's infrastructure business and other businesses were, GE was making somewhere near half its profit from its financial businesses under GE Capital. And during this period very little was disclosed by GE about the complicated financial machinery of its GE Capital unit and how it generated its profit, everything had to be taken on faith. This does not work anymore, after all the excesses, leverage and errors that have taken place in the financial markets. After repeated denials that it needed to raise new equity, GE raised $15 billion in new equity in late September 2008, including $3 billion from Warren Buffett. Then there was the two thirds dividend cut in early March 2009, after repeated denials, so that GE could conserve cash. Investors want to know more. Is GE Capital marking to market its assets that have fallen in value, now that its clear that these assets are likely to decline further, and stay that way for a very long time. Two analysts at Sterne Agee questioned GE Capital's accounting. Two days after GE cut its dividend, on March 3, 2009, Nicholas Heymann issued a report saying that GE Capital " is now confronting the prospect that a downward trend in fundamental performance, fueled by weakening end markets and magnified by several liquidity constraints, could potentially lead to an extended period of steadily lowered earnings, depleted loss provisions, lower credit ratings, rising borrowing costs." A day later GE stock hit $6. And credit default swaps suggested investors were worried about a default. As investors look for more transparency from GE, its going to clarify whether embedded losses are at $4 billion as GE claims or at $21 to $54 billion as Heymann is saying. GE's CFO Mr. Sherin appeared on CNBC with defense of the company's position, saying the company had $45 billion in cash, and there were no triggers that would have call on the company's cash in the short term. He said GE is trying to rebuild its credibility, and also trying to be clear, open and honest. Sherin promised to do this at a meeting on the week of March 16, 2009, where he would give details on the parts of the portfolio causing the most distress, $20 billion of subprime mortgages in the UK, the loan portfolio in Eastern Europe, and the commercial real estate holdings. And he told Joe Nocera of NYT, that GE had nothing to hide. But no one including Nocera is giving GE the benefit of the doubt, and no one today is taking anything on faith....

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The Apple Iphone retains 60% of its value in the secondary market for smartphones, compared to 42% for Droid X, 36% for Blackberry Torch 9800, 34% for Samsung Vibrant.