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Former U.S. president Bill Clinton's address at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N. Carolina. He endorsed President Obama for reelection in an impassioned speech.

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Some startling statistics on U.S. wages and incomes and the increase of part-time workers, by the publisher of U.S. News and World Report, Mortimer Zuckerman. He cites the Pew Research Center reports that show one third of Americans identifying themeselves as lower class or lower middle class compared to one quarter before 2008. This affects social mobility with the increasing gaps in incomes, education and social behaviour acting to reinforce each other and leading to even lower future mobility. Industries that are showing growth are in low wage occupations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows growth in future in industries noted for low wage part time work- health care, social assistance and retail, with some jobs lacking minimum wage and overtime protections. Revealing in this respect is that in the last 2 years fully 43% of net employment growth is in the 1.7 million jobs added in low wage work in food service, retail and employment services industries. The number of Americans working full time declined by 5.9 million since Sept 2007, part time workers increased by 2.6 million. The effects of higher part time workers and job recovery predominantly in lower wage industries is likely to affect consumer spending and slow growth....

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There is cramped space for renters and limited supply of housing space per capita in Shanghai, China. After a decade of hyper building China still lacks affordable housing space. The residential space per capita in Shanghai is only 183 square feet or 17 square metres per person- about the size of a small room. And estimates by GK Dragonomics Research show one third of China's 225 million households lack kitchens and plumbing. At the same time housing is increasingly unaffordable for the middle class. Government restrictions on price increases reflect growing concern with the fact that the average Shanghai residential home sold for about $276,000 in 2011, even though annual per capita income in Shanghai is about $13,000. Prices for homes in Shanghai increased 2.6 times in 5 years, according to the Shanghai Urban Real Estate Surveyors Company. With the slowdown in construction developers are working through inventories, and more homes were sold than built in 2012, compared to about 1.5 units built for every unit sold in 2011. ...

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This NYT editorial points to the dangers lurking behid the jobless numbers. The House bill that passed recently for $154 billion to extend unemployment benefits- set to expire in Feb 2010- to June 2010, and increases aid to local and state governments. It also includes infrastructure spending and help for small business. But it does not do enough for young people whose joblesness is at all time high. For instance only 4 in 100 low income black students found work in Fall 2009 This according to a study by the Northeastern University Center for Labor Market Studies. According to the analysis done by this Center the employment rates among teenagers has risen four times faster than the rate among adults since 2000, and todayme over 65 are more likely to find jobs than youth of 16-19 years.

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Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat-Chrysler told a conference in Michigan -"these are people who did not grow up and become conditioned to doing business in Detroit. " He cited this as one reason the new generation of leaders at the U.S. auto companies had embraced the new fuel efficiency standards. Another point he made that was well received was that "anybody who surrenders 14 years before the date ought not to be in business." He was referring to the 2025 deadline for the new standards. This view was well accepted by the other auto companies and by the UAW workers union, showing the big change that has come about in the U.S. auto industry.

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A decade after the 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention, Obama's message of change and hope as seen by American voters in 2014.

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GE's Jack Welch on a preplanned bankruptcy with government financial, and debtor in posession financing including finacially backing all car warranties, as the best solution to the GM and Chrysler crisis. Will it be tough? Jack Welch says this task would be at the outer limit of difficulty and leaders may balk at leading such painful change, but it is necessary. He says for the sake of self-respect, national defense, and jobs, the country needs to keep the auto industry, and even after the loss in market share during the transformation ahead GM and Chrysler could still have 25% of the market. This is the first time a seasoned veteran of American industry of the stature of Welch, who is known for tackling such problems with realism, gives his approach to the auto companies problems. He sees the problem with a bailout with strings attached as simply letting the Big Three heave along basically as they are on life support, because a bailout simply won't enable the transformative change required....

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The approach of the new Jinping-Keqiang administration to tackle the problem of surging credit growth, with poor quality lending in China's shadow banking system leading to problems of hidden debt and unknown quantity of loans in default. The central bank tightens credit in June 2013 sending a signal to lenders including small and medium sized banks and Trust companies in the shadow banking system that the government will let them default- that they are essentally on their own if they do not follow prudent financial practices.

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The figures tell the story. One area where Mexico is having success is policy decisions for technical education in the past 10 years and building up enrollment in technical and engineering colleges. This will have a lasting impact on Mexico's future and the attraction of staying in Mexico vs crosssing the border for millions of Mexicans trying to build a better future from humble beginings. BW says 451,000 students are enrolled in fulltime engineering and technical undergraduate programs vs 370,000 in the USA. With the cost being one-third or less than that in the US, the proximity to the U.S., the dedicated hardworking eager workforce and the keen willingness of local authorites to help foreign companies, the future looks bright for Mexican engineers.

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The issue of high youth unemployment. The bulge in demographics and the emphasis on increasing the number of college graduates without increasing the jobs available, or providing apprenticeship type training and degrees in areas where jobs can be created, has created a major problem in the Middle East. High youth unemployment in the US, Spain and the UK also poses serious problems. Former primer Minister Giuliano Amato of Italy recently told Corriere della Serra: "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Older workers tend to hold onto their jobs as long as possible as retirement ages are being raised, and they have negotiated higher retirement pensions. In Spain the younger part time workers and immigrant workers are the first to be laid off and unemployment is highest in this group, which is also why the high unemployment has not attracted as much attention there. Younger workers will eventually have to support a higher proportion of these workers in retirement because of the demographics. The shift to higher parttime employment and employment at low wages has also created a class of workers who have no future, as their incomes are low, and are easily laid off. This shift has been taking place in the US, Europe and Japan over the last decade. Germany has fared better because of its long tradition of apprenticeship training, and employers working directly with young students at universities to provide on the job training. The financial crisis of 2008 in the US slowed down many industries and created a shift in industries creating jobs, the result was a larger mismatch of skills of job seekers and new jobs created. One way to address this is more on the job training and working directly with employers, and assistance to community colleges to fill education gaps. ...

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According to real estate data firm CoreLogic, 38% of U.S. home owners who took a second mortgage on their homes are under water on their loans. 18% of borrowers who did not take a second mortgage are under water and have negative equity in their homes. Second mortgages are loans taken out on a property that are subordinate to first mortgages, including home equity loans and lines of credit. Borrowers with second mortgages have an average of $83,000 in negative equity compared to $52,000 for borrowers without second mortgages according to CoreLogic. During the boom borrowers took out cash using home equity loans and lines of credit for everything from home renovations and automobiles to tution and other expenses. Federal Reserve Board data show homeowners took out a huge amount, $2.69 trillion, from their homes for 2004-2006. Overall the number of underwater homeowners, or homeowners with negative equity in their homes, remained steady, according to CoreLogic's report- 10.9 million Americans in the first quarter of 2011, compared to 11.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2010, 22.7% of all homeowners nationwide compared to 23.1%. The slight decline reflected completed foreclosures, suggesting that the market conditions have not changed. Roubini and other experts predicted large housing losses in 2011-2012. This also affects America's largest banks. While the large part of the first mortgages were bundled and sold as securities, the home equity loans remain on bank balance sheets. About three fourths of the $950 billion in home equity loans outstanding were held by commercial banks at the end of 2010. Over 40% of this is on the books of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Citigroup. A writedown on these loans could use up a significant part of the bank's capital....

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By September 2009, says the NYT based on a state by state analysis of Labor Department numbers, 1 out of 4 persons in California will either be out of work or just working part time. At this time in July 2009, 1 in 5 persons in California are in this situation. This would mean a 25% unemployment/underemployment rate in California, and the rate in Florida, North Carolina and Washington could reach 20%, by September 2009. This spring the unemployment/underemployment rate reached 23.5% in Oregon, 21.5% in Michigan and Rhode Island, and 20.3% in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and some other states that rely heavily on manfacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20% this spring, and may have since passed that number. And so far only $90 billion of the stimulus has made it out the door according to Moody's Economy.com. From now until the end of 2010, an additional $25 billion or thereabouts will be spent every month. In most of the Great Plains States and the Mountain West the unemployment/underemployment rate was still below 12% in spring 2009, and in North Dakota as low as7.8%. But these states are getting adisproportionate share of the stimulus fund, which shows that the allocation of stimulus funds needs to be adjusted. Who are these parttime workers and how many are there? Take Richard Smith and his wife Lyn. They left Michigan where he worked for GM and Ford in white collar jobs till he was laid off. Mr Smith moved to Charlotte, N. Carolina last summer. He hasn't found full time work after sending in hundreds of applications. He now works a few days aweek at agolf shop, repairing clubs and making $9.50 an hour. With the help of that money he has bought abargain-basement foreclosed house. Part time workers like the Smiths comprise about one third of the 20% unemployment/underemployment rates in states like Michigan and Oregon, so the rate for those who are completely out of work is around 13% in these 2 states....

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China's GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2012 was 7.9% over prior year, increasing from 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth for 2012 was 7.8%, down from 9.3% in 2011. Growth is stabilizing at 8% which shows China is managing the economy, slowing the growth rate with a smaller stimulus planned in 2013, and working on sustainable growth for the longer term. This is a significant positive as a new leadership takes over in China and sets priorities for stable growth, and improvements in housing and health care.

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The eurozone GDP shrank at an annualized 5.9% for 4th quarter 2008.

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A shift in priorities away from focussing on high growth to lower sustainable growth was announced by China's premier Wen Jiabao at the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012. This shift will reduce investment in infrastructure, power generation and exports, which will affect the level of imports of commodities from commodity producing nations in the Middle East, Australia, Canada and Brazil. It should increase imports of software, computers, entertainment, tourism and high tech goods from the U.S. and Europe. Chinese leaders have said they would make this kind of shift for some years now but growth has consistently increased more than the target rate, and domestic consumption as a percentage of the economy has actually decreased in the last decade. Now 9-10% growth rates may be a thing of the past and the target of 7.5% set this year may be actually closer to the real figure. The Chinese leaders have belatedly realized the need to make these changes now because slowing markets in Europe -which is seeing declining growth and high unemployment- and in the U.S., make the issue impossible to avoid. Wen told the Congress: "Accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economc development... is both a long term task and our most pressing task at present... Domestically it has become more urgent but also more difficult... to alleviate the problem of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development." This is his way of saying that its unavoidable and better to start in earnest now, and at the same time recognizing the resistance to change from the stateowned companies and the other interests who have benefitted from surging growth, and now occupy a central role in the power structure. An opinion article in the People's Daily, China's official newspaper, said: "imperfect reforms are to be preferred to a crisis caused by no reforms." The World Bank's president Zoellick is respected by the Chinese leaders. He also urged them to make changes now. The recent report of the DRC, China's planning research arm, and the World Bank, also laid out the new direction away from a focus on infrastructure to domestic consumption. The fear is sudden deceleration in the absence of policy action. The impact of this will be negative for commodities over time, leading to slower growth in Australia, Brazil, and Canada. It should boost imports from Europe and the U.S. of high tech, consumer, pharmaceutical goods over time....

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The U.S. trade agreement with Mexico is for 16 years, to provide business with a stable rules environment to operate in. It includes a clause for review after 6 years. The content made in the U.S. is increased to 70% from 62.5%. This has to be made by workers earning at least $16  an hour. Aluminium and steel going into the cars has to come from the U.S. helping push U.S. steel plant capacity utilization to 80%. Labor collective bargaining is strengthened in Mexico through new provisions, a provision supported by new Mexican socialist president Obrador. Free trade in agricultural products is maintained. $4.7 billion was added in help to U.S. farmers as aid for the effects of China's tariff retaliation. New rules are set for textiles, chemicals, and steel intensive products that set requirements to qualify for tariff free import into the U.S. This is intended to help bring more jobs and investment in these industries in the U.S.     ...

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Tourists from China went up by 20% in 2015, going over 1 million. Foreign enrollment at Australian educational institutions was up significantly in 2015, going up to 645,000, up 25% over 2012 with the weaker Australian dollar. Australia's services sector including inbound education and tourism exceeded in value the minerals and metal ores exports in the last two months of 2015. This enabled the Australian economy to grow by 3% in the 4th quarter of 2015 over the prior year.

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See the related article in WSJ May 26, 2006 by Norihiko Shirouzu- In Chinese Market Toyota's Strategy is Made in USA. That article described the efforts of Northwestern Kellogg School graduate Yoshimi Inaba's efforts since June 2005 to effect a turnaround for Toyota in China. Toyota lags badly behind GM in China. Here Bremner puts together research findings of a collaborative effort between Business Week China and JD Power to develop a picture of what drives the Chinese buyer in the fastest growing auto market in the world. McGraw Hill owns JD Power and Business Week.

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The challenges facing Calderon as he tries to adress a number of problems at once.

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This report in The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, gives insights into the Chinese position in trade war with the U.S.  China has its own internal groups which support China being able to take a leadership role in world affairs. Xi Jinping made giving China a prominent role in the world a feature of his presidency. China  has this internal audience and its own sense that China's resurgence was won with hard work and cooperation, plus dedication of the Chinese people. In the past Japan and South Korea also used state subsidized industries, and subsidies to gain leadership in key business sectors involving high technology. China would see this state subsidies model as its own model of development. From this standpoint the U.S. demands on subsidies as unfair competition could be seen as changing a key part of its economic model.  Asking China to put everything in writing and show tangible proof of enforcement as the U.S. insisted in talks, was too much for the Chinese side. China said trust us to do this, and lift the tariffs based on our verbal assurances. The U.S. having seen decades of no progress on this point, wanted tangible proof before tariffs were lifted. Added to the demands on subsidies were the demands for no more of what the U.S. calls stealing of U.S. technology through forced transfer of technology by U.S. firms as a condition to operate in Chinese markets. With the U.S. lagging in 5G technology and Huawei ahead the issue resonates on the U.S. side. Add to this Mr. Trump's key voter base includes the former Democratic party supporting workers who have shifted to him because of trade agreements and policies of Clinton and Obama that hurt American workers through seemingly endless closure of manufacturing plants from Chinese competition.   ...