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Reflecting the volatile nature of the global economy with systemic risks remaining, impact of sharp cuts in spending, and the danger of oil prices exceeding $150 with a mideast crisis, the IMF provided a wide range of possibilities around its basic forecast. The IMF says it expects the global economy to grow 3.5% in 2012, up 0.2% from a Jan. forecast, and a forecast of 4.1% for 2013. But the IMF says this depends on the eurozone crisis, which could take off 2% from global output and 3.5% from output in the eurozone if things went wrong in Europe. Higher oil prices above $165 with supply disruptions after Iranian sanctions are another danger. Its forecast for Europe is 0.3% contraction in 2012 and 0.9% growth in 2013. Because of the risks in the outlook the IMF cautions countries from cutting spending too quickly, and says the best approach is to reduce deficits gradually over the long term and not to move too fast in the short term. This word of caution applies to Spain, the UK, France and Germany. To maintain enough funding in a crisis the IMF plans to increase its lending capacity from $380 billion by an additional $280 billion, with pledges of $60 billion from Japan, $26 billion from the Nordic countries, and $200 from other eurozone countries. ...

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Douthat offers insights into U.S. president Obama's thinking when he said at a National Prayer Breakfast, that Christians also had committed bad acts in the name of religion and reminded listener of the Jim Crow days when blacks were oppressed by church going Christians. The Crusades were a long battle against an advancing Islam over several centuries and many regions, says Douthat, and do not quite compare with the actions committed by an individual organization such as Islamic State in 2014-2015. The Jim Crow reference comes from personal experience during the fading days of racial discrimination. Yet says Douthat this reference to Christian culpability does little to bring the criticism back to self that the writer Niebuhr, Obama's role model, suggests, because it does not take the criticism back to self or political party to serve as useful introspection. It is almost like saying Christians are just as bad,(so why act?) without distinguishing from Christians and Muslims who respect tolerance and peaceful coexistence from those who do not. It also encourages one to remain a bystander in foreign and defense policy, leaving a younger generation with any future consequences. Ike does better by bringing self-criticism home to his own party and ideological wing by talking about the military-industrial complex and the problems it will create....

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Glassman cites Ronald Reagan who once said economists are people who look at things in practice and then see if they can prove this in theory. He co-authored a book on "Dow 36,000" in 1999. What happened and why? He correctly says the Dow is up to 12,000- and this only after Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quanitative easing on top of low to zero interest rate policies after the 2008 crisis- in the 12 years since. So what happened? Glassman says what he did not account for is the huge decline in the prospects for the U.S. economy, with Congressional Budget Office estimates of 2% growth over the next 70 years, compared to the 3.5% growth in the first 50 years of the 20th century. A lot goes go into this, including the debt buildup, the lack of investment in human capital and K-12 education. The other is the huge volatility in stock returns, and the "discontinuous" risks stemming from things like the home price crash, terrorist 9/11 attack and other such developments. He says he is tired of telling investors to hold on in the face of such huge volatility and uncertainty. He advises a cautious strategy, a pull back from stocks to reduce the downside on returns and a smaller allocation to stocks....

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The new head of Roche, Severin Schwan, sees a huge opportunity in the current state of pharmaceuticals. He says drugmaking is still "so crude," because half of all known diseases cannot be treated at all, and the drugs for the diseases that are being treated don't work as well as they should and with a lot of side effects that make serious drawbacks in using them. He compares this state of affairs to acar that starts only half of the time and has brakes that don't always work. What gets hime excited is the rapid advances in diagnostics, genomics and biotechnology that can bring a"brand new revolution" in personalized medicine. He is pushing forward in the areas of biotechnology with the $47 billion deal that integrates Genentech into Roche, and in molecular diagnostics with the integration of 454 Life Sciences and Ventana. Doubts were raised during the integration of Genentech into Roche about whether the research climate at Genentech could be preserved and whether research scinetists would leave. But most have stayed. With the resources of a larger company behind Genentech and the patient approach that a firm with a founding family controlling the firm can take under a leadership determined to invest in research, experts like Tim Anderson of Bernstein Research see Roche well positioned to grow by aquarter over the next five years....

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Bayer CEO, Marijn Dekkers, plans to divest its plastics business, called Material Science. The plastics division requires large investments with lower returns than can be made in health care or the agricultural crop science business. Crop Science generated earnings before interest and taxes of 1.81 billion euros in 2014, and Health Care helped by 5 new prescription drugs reported EBIT of 3.58 billion euros, compared to poor returns of 555 million euros on the polyurethane and polymers used for laptops to soccer balls in the Materials Science division. CEO Dekkers is a Dutch born executive who worked for 25 years in the U.S. Since taking over in 2010 he has brought a significant culture change to Bayer, by insisting on speed and agility from executives. Division heads with marketing backgrounds are preferred to science degrees, and the planning orientation of the company is being changed to one where the company executives are not afraid to take risks based on incomplete information. Dekkers prefers an IPO for the $10 billion plastics business to generate more cash and reduce the debt of 20 billion euros. He acquired the over the counter drug business of Merck for $14.2 billion, and has boosted drug sales with the introduction of Xarelto in partnership with J&J, eye treatment Eylea, cancer drugs Stivarga and Xofigo, pulmonary hypertension drug Adempas. Sales of these 5 drugs are expected to go up from 2.9 billion euros in 2014 to 4 billion euros in 2015, contributing significantly to Bayer's profits. Dekker's venture capitalist type focus on profit margins is showing results in share price performance- Bayer's share price has advanced 60% in 2015 mid-March price of 145.85 euros compared to the prior year month. In the small town of Leverkusen, Germany, where Bayer is located, there were initially fears that Dekkers was "too American" and too focussed on shareholder value to understand the need to respect tradition. Since then Germans have realized that Dekkers understands tradition and is only bringing necessary change- the transition to being a life sciences company makes sense to shareholders in Germany, for employee representatives on the supervisory board the guarantee of current level of 17,000 jobs in the plastics division for a few years shows his concern for job protection during the transition period. For Dekkers who left Holland in 1985, and has a U.S. passport with an American wife and kids who speak no Dutch or German, the important thing is to get the right balance- he says the system of 99-1 where 99% of the information had to be in before a decision could be made is making the change to 90-10 where only 90% of the information is now necessary to go ahead, even if he would like to see it at 80-20. Bayer still sponsors the local soccer team known as Bayer Leverkausen, and 26 other clubs. Dekkers steps down at the end of 2016....

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People who worked with Romney in the Mormon church describe the experience of Romney who started as an "iron rodder" walking the straight path, and gradually learning of other people's experiences that led to learning and growth and showing a new openness. In contrast to his "47%" remark about people dependent on the government, here he is seen telling another church member Barlow, that what bothers him most and what he has thought a lot about is how to genuinely help the poor in his church. Over the years he learned to compromise with Mormon feminists who sought larger roles in the church and was able to make the progress from being less flexible to being open to other ideas and perceptions. In other situations he allowed unorthodox progressives in the Mormon church to play a part in the organization and teach. The outreach efforts Romney participated in actively included efforts in the inner city and working with immigrants from Haiti, some of whom were illegal immigrants. This is a detailed well researched account from talking to many people active in the church organization and in the church community by Jason Horowitz of the Washington Post. It is one of the rare glimpses of the life of Mitt Romney inside the church. Because of the public perception of Mormonism there is a distance kept with accounts of life in the church, and Romney has shown the same reticence to talk about the church. Seen as a church it is is like other churches, Catholic or Protestant, with the same challenges that face all churches- keeping up the size of the congregation, the poor, immigrants, church organization, raising contributions, getting people to donate hours of work to the church activity. It is one of the ironies of the 2012 presidential campaign that Romney as a member of a Mormon church in a predominantly Catholic and Protestant world has remained reticent about his experiences and how it shaped him. And also remained reticent -till the last months of the campaign with the demands for authenticity growing strident- about how the experiences as governor of the liberal state of Massachusetts had shaped him, this time as the number of Republican politicians in sharply liberal states were a distinct minority in the Republican party. To voters this meant not knowing who he was beyond Bain Capital, the perceptions of which doggedly pursued Romney till the reticence became unbearable in the final weeks of the campaign....

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 FR24's Cyril Payen reports on the battle of Dien Bien Phu in northern Vietnam in 1954 marking end of French colonial rule in Indochina. Under Eisenhower administration and John Foster Dulles the Cold War with Soviets cast a shadow over the struggle for freedom from colonial rule of the Vietnamese people. After the French left in 1954 remaining American advisers cast a shadow over John F. Kennedy's new vision for the world that included freedom from colonial rule for Asia and Africa. Facing a struggle in Eastern Europe with Soviet tanks in Budapest in 1956, US was unwillingly dragged into France's colonial conflict after Kennedy's assassination. Kennedy's vision for the New Frontier was never realized following a series of mediocre presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Obama and Trump that wasted resources in far away wars. America is only now recovering Kennedy's vision of the New Frontier of 1960. ...

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Putin cites Roosevelt's four terms as an example when considering another term. He also says like Roosevelt he or Medvedev will not do anything that violates the Russian constitution.

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There are serious differences in what Ukraine says it received $67 billion military aid and $31 for budget needs compared to the $350 billion figure cited by DJT. DJT calls Zelensky as not legitimately representing Ukraine as no elections can be called in Ukraine in wartime and Zelensky's term expired in 2024, saying should'nt the people of Ukraine be at the table. He also says Ukraine was at the table for 3 years and even a half baked negotiator could have settled this war. What DJT means is that Ukraine could have settled it by promising to stay out of NATO, and remain neutral not joining the EU. It would have given up control over formerly Russia supporting parts of Ukraine in the east that Russia now controls. Ukraine would have returned to being a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia of today. Even today this has not changed as any peace would not reverse the status quo of control of these eastern regions by Russia. On NATO Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says- "Trump (DJT) is the first, and so far only Western leader to publicly and loudly say that one of the root causes of the Ukraine situation is the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO.” Zelensky's popularity has fallen in Ukraine as the war drags on. DJT says US has put $350 billion in Ukraine and asked for an agreement committing half of Ukraine's rare earth resources to the US. Zelensky says he cannot sell the state out. Zelensky's estimate of US assistance is $67 billion military aid and $31 billion in aid for the budget. ...

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Germany's DW.com says in this report- "However, economists have pointed out that the US benefits from having large trade imbalances with the rest of the world, as the dollar is used in most trade, and offers major tailwind effects to the US economy." Which economists one must ask? Most of these economists had turned their back on the working people in factories in America, on their wages turned into a downward spiral, on their jobs, their factories lost for three decades. Today the American people have a sense of the true cost of this colossal failure to protect American workers and small towns across America depending on manufacturing. The pandemic exposed the risks of supply chain shocks and inflation by overly concentrating manufacturing in China.  The US has 1 trillion in trade deficits each year and it is completing the destruction of manufacturing in the US. Half of this is with China as China exports through Vietnam and Mexico, third countries, in addition to 295 billion dollars of trade imbalance the US has with China. China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam are the largest offenders. No country can long endure with such a loss of its manufacturing base. The US Navy itself is in danger without the manufacturing to compete with China that has taken up over 50% of shipbuilding, and soon will not be able to protect the free world if these types of economists and self serving German or other foreign interests drive a false narrative. Without the US Navy in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans no one is safe, not Germany, not the EU, not India or the rest of the world. ...

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On political debate over oil prices, points out irresponsible solutions to oil price increases will not help. Focusses on the solution of increasing fuel efficiency and mandated government standards for fuel efficiency of cars.

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In just 7 months the Trump administration has a falling apart with business leaders and union leaders on the days following the Charlottesville car attack. Here Richard Trumka gives his reasons in the NYT for withdrawing from the president's Manufacturing Council. He says Trump presented big idea such as infrastructure and fair trade deals but he is not likely to live up to his promises. Only tweaks are expected on NAFTA says Trumka, and labor rights are taking a hit under president Trump. The AFL-CIO was not called to a single meeting by president Trump, says Trumka. He now sees the Trump administration in the same way as other political leaders- filled with broken promises. In the case of the Trump administration he sees working families ending up much worse off. Trumka says a University of Pennsylvania study shows even if a plan for infrastructure comes up the president's budget proposal would sink it- leading to a net loss of $55 billion for highway, water facilities and public transit. Trumka points out the damage to the social safety net as a matter of serious concern- cutting $1.5 trillion from Medicaid, $59 billion from Medicare, $64 billion from Social Security over 10 years. With cuts to construction workers wages, and a 6% cut for government workers. He calls as "morally bankrupt" and bad economic actions the effort for large scale deportation.  He calls the events in Charlottesville and the president's condoning of the violence in Charlottesville by blaming both sides, the last straw for his union. Separately business leaders resigned from two advisory groups. Chase CEO Dimon pointed out that for economic progress the basic consensus in the country must be preserved, and divisive rhetoric can lead to the unraveling of economic progress- the vital link between society, politics and the economy in line with America's ideals being evident to the business community, as well as to labor. ...

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This report in the NYT shows Silicon Valley Bank and Silicon Valley its people are highly intertwined, each supporting the other except when SVB's looked insolvent. At that point there was a run on the bank as venture capital pulled out, and $42 billion was withdrawn on just one day, according to the reports. The next the FDIC took over the bank.

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The higher proportion of consumer spending in India in 2022 that comes from higher income groups with incomes over 1 million rupees annually. Lower income budget items including two wheelers and small appliances are not faring as well as higher end appliances and cars. Higher end consumer spending has recovered faster to increase above pre covid years levels as lower income household spending lags.

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Sony's efforts to buy out Ericsson's 50% share of Sony-Ericsson joint venture in cell phone devices. Analysts estimate the value of Ericsson's stake at 1-1.25 billion euros. For Sony it is critical to become a major player in the smartphone business. Smartphones are carried by consumers everywhere and offer the opportunity to link smartphones to its online music, games and videos. The Sony-Ericsson venture failed to catch the smartphone trend early. After the launch of the Sony iPad, Sony sees significant opportunities in coming up with newer smartphone models and leveraging its technological strengths. This can only be done by having complete control over the smartphone business and having it in-house. Ericsson also sees it this way. Sony Ericsson Chief Bert Nordberg stated recently that the smartphone business has more in common with Sony than Ericsson. Ericsson's strengths are in heavy engineering and telecommunications, business to business, which are in contrast to the consumer emphasis at Sony. The Sony-Ericsson venture is barely profitable, with net profits of 90 millon euros for sales revenue of 6.3 billion euros in 2010. The strength of the Japanese yen, and the firmer valuation after the venture turned profitable in 2010- after two years of losses in 2008 and 2009- make a buyout of Ericsson's stake a good move for Sony....

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AstraZeneca PLC showed a net profit decline of 8.3% in fourth quarter 2011, on sales that remained stable at $8.66 billion compared to $8.62 billion in the prior year quarter. AstraZeneca is facing competition from low cost generics and cuts in government health care spending similiar to the rest of the industry. The company has announced new job cuts of 7,300 job for 2012, which brings total job cuts to 30,000 for the last 5 years. Most of the job cuts are in the U.S. and Europe. Hiring has continued in emerging markets leaving the net job cuts over the last 5 years at 9,600. Of the 7,300 job cuts planned for 2012, 2,200 will be in R&D departments, 1,350 in manufacturing and 3,750 in sales. AstraZeneca is changing the way it will do research and development with these changes. It will close the neuroscience research laboratories in Sodertalje, Sweden and in Montreal. It will have in its place "virtual" neuroscience units, small groups of 40-50 researchers working with academic groups and scientists outside to utilize the best science in the field. This is one of the most radical changes in R&D practices among pharmaceutical companies. In marketing the approach has shifted from having full time sales people call doctors offices to using online marketing tools and telemarketers. This approach is also being adopted for emerging markets....

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There is a sharp decline in investor confidence in Greece as the Syriza Party leads in polls in Dec. 2014, with a 3-6 point lead over New Democracy Party of prime minister Samaras. There was a sharp selloff on the Athens stock exchange and yields on Greece's 10 year government bonds went up to 8.5% by Dec. 11, 2014. The government needs 180 votes for a presidential election vote in parliament. The outcome is uncertain and could lead to early parliamentary elections on Jan 25, 2015, with Syriza a potential winner. Syriza had taken a strong line on Greece's debt in 2012 elections, including a possible debt default. It now says it is willing to renegotiate and maintain relations with IMF, EU and the ECB creditors to Greece. In fact, Syriza leader Tsipras has met with ECB chief Draghi, former ECB official Joerg Asmussen of Germany, and Greece's central bank chief. Syriza has changed its party promises to reflect its move to the mainstream- such as not offering to hire back workers or make tax relief measures apart from specific ones, only insisting on freezing public sector layoffs and reversing minimum wage cuts. The EU programs for Greece lapse on 28, Feb. 2015, and an EU official say it is important that Syriza agree to a program following that date to reassure financial markets....

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Problems facing Saudi Arabia in 2015 as King Salman, 79, takes over are an aging leadership, and lack of new solutions to problems facing the economy overly dependent on oil revenues and social spending. Like other Persian Gulf economies the oil sector makes up a large part of GDP- 44% for Saudi Arabia, and 59% for Kuwait. Under King Salman policies will remain the same as under King Abdullah. Social spending was boosted after the protests and political change in the Middle East in 2012-2013. Even with a drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel high social spending and reliance on public sector jobs to meet the employment needs of young Saudis will continue. Young people under 25 years make up 47% of the Saudi population of 29 million. No new income streams are being pursued and taxation is not even considered as an option. The private sector is led by non-Saudis and is under financed with most employment generated in the public sector. Growing oil consumption inside the kingdom with its growing population is also likely to reduce the quantity of oil available for export in the long term. Reserves of $750 billion provide a buffer for now, but long term Saudi Arabia faces a structural deficit, says Steffen Hertog, an expert on Persian Gulf political economics, at the London School of Economics. ...

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Pulliam and Demos look at the murky world of pre IPO trading of shares by venture capital companies and by employees of the pre-IPO companies in the secondary market. Federal and state laws permit pre-IPO trading for unregistered securities. The SEC has not issued more than a couple of enforcement actions for the trading of pre-IPO shares from startup companies. Wealth is now created before an IPO is done. During the 2000 tech boom most of the surge in price happened after the IPO- Amazon's IPO giving the company a valuation of $400 million based on IPO price then, compared to $171 billion in 2015, and Facebook worth $104 billion at the IPO price in 2012, and twice that in 2015. 78 privately held companies are worth over $1 billion in 2015, with combined valuation of $310 billion. The surge in prices of pre-IPO shares comes from the huge demand from investors, who are willing to accept that not much financial information will be disclosed by the startup companies, in the hope of quickly earning a large profit. The estimates of pre-IPO trading for the shares is in the range of $10- $30 billion in shares traded in 2014. This is what the WSJ's Puliam and Demos learned from extensive interviews with traders, investmetn bankers, hedge fund managers, venture capital executives, lawyers and company officials....

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Class of 1977 was first after the Cultural revolution. In 1977 China held its first competitive national university entrance examination since 1965. A period of 12 years of the cultural revolution till 1977 were a lost decade in terms of education and getting the best minds and training them for careers in various fields for development and modernization. The year 1977 with the reinstatement of university entrance exams was remarkable in the outpouring of energy as young people prepared for entrance exams in a period of a few weeks. Textbooks were hard to find, for over ten years most had no schooling and worked in rural areas doing farming work. Students scrambled to find teachers to guide them. 273,000 were admitted to universities that year- only 4.7% of the the students taking the test. In comparison 58% of nine million students in 2007 were admitted to universities three decades later in 2007. Li Keqiang is one of these students who worked really hard to get into Peking University. He is the new prime minister, part of the new generation of leaders in China. Others include Zhou Qiang, governor of Hunan province, Wang Yi, party secretary of Foreign Affairs Ministry, and Jin Liqun, vice president of the Asian Development Bank, filmmakers Yimou and Kaige. and the writer Chen Cun. ...