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Bradley and Nabhan of the WSJ report from Quara Tepe in Iraq and the weak Iraqi military unable to control parts of the country from attacks by better armed and trained ISIS militants, some from the old Iraqi army before the U.S. invasion and others from the war in Syria. The failure of the Maliki government to bring together Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, as a new election apporaches and Maliki is likely to be elected for a third term. A divided parliament and the lack of U.S. presence after the withdrawal in 2011 at Malik's insistence. The U.S. has refrained from supplying the Iraqi military for fear of aggravating ethnic tensions, with the Sunnis saying Maliki is practicing ethnic cleansing under the guise of fighting terrorism. Under Maliki Iraqi airspace has been used to supply the Assad regime from Iran, according to some reports, making the U.S. wary of supplying the Iraqi military as it has little influence left.

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Individual investors reacted strongly to declining prospects for emerging markets with slowing growth, depreciating currencies, corruption and political uncertainty in 2013. As of the beginning of June, retail investors pulled $18.1 billion from emerging market bond funds, about one third of the amount that went in to emerging markets since the financial crisis in 2007, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. Institutional investors have pulled out less, about $9.3 billion, or 10% of their investments in emerging markets bonds since 2007. A similiar pattern is seen for investment in the stock markets of emerging market countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary expansion helped pull more money into emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey. As the Fed shifts away from these policies in 2013 emerging market countries have large current account deficits and less money to finance imports and debt.

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The OPEC meeting in Qatar in April 2016 to stabilize oil prices with a freeze in production is not likely to affect supply and demand. Saudis and Russia are producing all out, and Iran plans to increase its production, making it difficult to reach an agreement. The International Energy Agency, IEA, predicts demand will rise by the end of 2016 from 94.8 million barrels a day to 95.9 million barrels a day. Production is at 96.4 million barrels a day, and this is expected to lead to narrowing the gap between supply and demand. Experts say cars are becoming more fuel effficient, and electric car technology is becoming commercially viable, leading to a lack of growth in demand in developed and middle income countries. This may have to be factored in for the intermediate and long run for demand growth.

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This editorial in the Wshington Post is sharply critical of the Obama administration's policies of inaction in Syria and Iraq. It says president Obama and his administration will have to answer for the policies to the American people and the people of the Middle East and Europe.

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As expected Iran boycotts the talks in Doha of 16 major oil producers seeking to stabilize oil prices. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela sought to stabilize oil production at January levels to support oil prices. Wth the Saudia and Russia producing all out, Iran seeks to do the same, effectively closing the door on any agreement to freeze production levels.

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The Trump administration says waivers for China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey to import Iranian oil that expire in May will not be renewed. The decision is to have zero exemptions. Earlier Taiwan, Greece and Italy, also on the list, decided to find other sources of imported oil. Iranian oil exports are estimate to be below 1 million barrels a day compared to 2.5 million barrels a day before president Trump abandoned the Obama administration negotiated Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed oil sanctions. 

Saudis and UAE say they will keep the oil market in balance, and president Trump is also relying on U.S. shale oil supplies. The move faces resistance from China which says the U.S. has no jurisdiction to interfere. India haces issues with the U.S. for importing from not only Iran, but also Venezuela, Turkey and Iran are neighbors, India and Iran are neighbors, both with cultural ties to Iran, making the situation difficult for both countries.

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The OPEC meeting in Doha in April 2016 fails to lead to an agreement to freeze oil production at Jan. 2016 levels, with Iran staying away from the meeting.

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Pessimism about the pace of democratization in China with the continued dominance of the Communist party in the business and economc structures of the country. The interrelationships of the party with state owned companies and the role of its 80 million members in running all aspects of life in China. Experts in China say the 18th party Conress showed no signs of change in the party's control and no sign of experimentation to allow for change comng from within the system so that China could establish a constitutional democracy with the rule of law. Experts in China say the new leaders Jinping and Keqiang may not be able to make changes even if they wanted to, because of the party's control and the earlier presidents and prime ministers from the last two decades who still retain a strong influence on the direction of the country.

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post draws attention to the speculative bubble in housing in China, the policies for sale of land by local governments that fuel the bubble, the corrupt local officials, and GDP growth that reflects overinvestment in housing creating serious imbalances in the economy. The structure of the economic and political system which promote this overinvestment in real estate has also reduced the role of the Chinese consumer in GDP growth, and is preventing a rebalancing of the world economy.

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International issues took on larger significance for the U.S. Federal Reserve in September 2015 as it looked at a small increase in interest rates. Schwartz points to the memories of the 1997 emerging market crisis and how fragile economies like Mexico were adversely impacted by rising rates in the U.S.. Mexico needed a large bank bailout and contagion spread to other countries. Kenneth Rogoff says the risks are real with declining commodity prices and falling currencies of emerging markets such as Brazil, Indonesia and Russia. Ripple effects would carry over to India and other countries. The sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy in the second half of 2015 was too recent for the Fed to take any sort of risk in September 2015.

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The loss of support of tribes in Anbar province, as Islamic State targets tribal leaders and officials who supported U.S. sponsored Awakening Councils during the presidency of George Bush. Many of the gains of that period are diminished with the lack of trust of Sunni tribal leaders in the Shiite led Iraqi government. For the tribes that are fighting Islamic State the Iraqi government is hesitant to provide support believing the arms will later be used against it. The U.S. government is also hesitant to increase its involvement. The Islamic state has alienated Sunni tribes supporting it because of its violent methods. These tribes support Islamic State because of a lack of alternatives and because of money paid to them by Islamic State.

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Critics of the Obama administration's so-called "light footprint strategy" for the Middle East say it is more about keeping distance from problems in that region. This is a reaction to the extensive involvement of the U.S. in two wars in that region and intuitively makes sense, as well as being in line with American public opinion to focus on problems at home. The shift or pivot to Asia of president Obama also comes in that context. The problem with this approach is that this ignores the fact that most of the momentum and effort for the freedom struggles throughout the Middle East from Tunisia first, then Libya, Egypt, and now Syria, comes from within. The lead role is now being taken by France and Britain, with German public opinion also lined up in support. The U.S. in forfeiting its role as a facilitator with strategies such as "no-fly-zones" is losing the opportunity to gain the goodwill in the Middle East with cost that is negligible in comparison to the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan, and comes after the huge U.S. effort to remove one dictator in Iraq. A minor followup effort is all that is required from an administration that pushed for the "surge" in Afghanistan. When history is written the investment of the Obama administration in Afghanistan may show little results, if what is considered by the media and experts as an unpopular and undemocratic government of Karzai falls in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal. There is little doubt in public opinion in the U.S. and worldwide that the movement for freedom and democracy in the Middle East and democratically elected governments will become a lasting facet of the new Middle East. It also provides huge opportunties for trade and investment as is shown by the gains made by Turkey in just 2 years. This is why the Obama adminstration policies in the Middle East show a lack of grasp of the facts showing the Middle East as opportunity more than threat for the next decade, especially in its overreaction to the Bush era policies. This happens as there is a demographic explosion of young people in the Middle East. An administration that was keen to sense the demographic changes in North America, has failed to grasp this fact and why the struggle in the Middle East flashes daily on television screens young people carrying on the struggle. A pivot to Asia means a pivot to the Far East more than Asia because India is part of the South Asian-Middle Eastern region, which presents another paradox because as China is slowing the entire South Asian-Middle Eastern region of Asia is where future growth is expected to accelerate in the next decade. ...

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BBC reporter Anrew Hosken reports on the origins of Islamic State (ISIS).

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WSJ's Trofimov talks to some of the 2.5 million refugees and displaced people in the sectarian conflict in Iraq in 2015. He finds a mood of despair and resignation to a permanent partition of the country following sectarian conflict between Shiites and Sunnis. The situation is being dictated by the facts on the ground as the refugees see little prospect of returning to their homes, and the different regions controlled by Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish forces with borders.