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Dealerships have taken enthusuastically to the new Penske ownership of Saturn. But its not clear whether the Penske name will help boost sales. Saturn sales were down 58% through May 2009 over a year earlier, down to 35,256 vehicles. Kia sold 4 times as many cars in the USA over the same period. Saturn sales improved in June, with a35% year over year increase in June. But its not clear if this will last and what the effects of the penske name will be over the long term. Autodata estimates that there is a105 day supply of Saturn cars, or 32,647 cars for 350 dealers. By comparison Buick has a74 day backlog. Customer loyalty says J.D. Power is down from 45% in 2007 to 37% today. This compares to retention rates of about 65% for Toyota. And the failure of the Astra to genrate customer interest and its being discontinued will leave Saturn without acompact car in its lineup. Its important for Saturn to have an affordable small car to hang onto loyal customers.

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Samuelson's point about the comparison with Japan and its lost decade is that Japan did poorly but it still managed to get small modest growth averaging about 1.5% for the period, and Japanese unemployment only rose from 2.1% in 1990 to 5% in 2001. Japan he says did not suffer adepression or great recession, but only a listless boring prosperity. Its only because of high growth rates of 9% from 1956 to 1973, and 4% in the 1980's, that the low growth looked bad. Japan continued to be prosperous country, and some of the choices such as the dual economy, of competitive export industries and less competitive and inefficient domestic industries, were made by society as a whole. It gave export led growth in combination with the job security and social stability of the domestic industries. Stimulus plans help in bad times but at some point the economy has to grow on its own, and the shift to other natural sources of growth has to be made, is Samuelson's other point.

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OECD released a study that shows losses in mortgage sector in the United States, the amount that banks and companies have to writeoff as losses could reach $300 billion. The study points out that only some of these losses are reflected so far and more will be seen when the mortgage rates reset upwards in May 2008. The study assumption is for a default rate on mortgages of 14% on subprime mortgages. Loans made to borrowers with poor credit amount to $125 billion. When you include losses on loans on Alt-A mortgages given to people with better credit the losses reach $300 billion. Banks are exposed to the subprime mortgage market through securities of housing loans and the writeoffs could be in excess of the actual amount on defaults as the writeoffs may be made in the next 6-12 months even though given time the housing market should stabilize. Over time the OECD sees the situation stabilizing after the worst of the losses are seen in 2008.

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Andrew Hall of trading firm Phibro, which traces its roots to the Phipps Brothers a German scrapmetal and raw materials dealer from 1900, and is now a part of Citigroup. He started making big bets after 2004 that futures in oil prices would instead of the then prevailing 20% discount to current prices be priced higher than current prices because of the rising demand from China and India and shortage of supplies. Once he had locked in on this idea and had researched the facts he got the agreement of the head of Ciigroups trading group to place large bets such as buying a lot of oil futures at the prevailing prices. As oil prices shot up this paid off and Phibro kept 20-30%of the profits. Hall made about $250 million dollars and put $100 million into his art collection of new artists. At a time when speculative buying by investors has pushed up oil prices this is a story of one person who made big bets and thrived.

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NYT editorial says Bush Administration thinks it has time on its side in the housing foreclosure crisis but they are wrong. The White House has not come up with a clear strategy or what needs to be done as the way forward from here. And this it says wil prove costly. Because there is no clear direction coming out of the White House the Congress also has not been able to articulate a clear strategy with near unanimous support. Alt-A loans called Alt A for alternative to grade A prime loans are scheduled to reset to higher payments starting 2009 with losses mounting in 2010 and 2011. Alt A losses are projected to reach $150 billion but his is based on price declines following a stable pattern, but if housing prices take a steep decline then losses could go much higher causing a great deal of instability to the financial system, which will be harder to fix at that time. NYT is urging the Bush administration to wake up to the impending crisis.

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Its of huge importance that the banks who had a capital injection of $125 billion on Monday October 13, go out and lend some of that capital but this looks increasingly unlikely for the next quarter for some of the banks with gaping holes in their balance sheets and even for a couple of quarters according to some analysts. Merrill's Thain said it was unlikely considering Merrill's losses that it would do so for another quarter and Barclsy's analyst Roge Freeman "its quarters off , if not months off, before you see that capital being put to work." In that case proposals that help homeowners become critically important as more and more howeowners in a downward spiral could find themselves under water which is a point that has not been grasped by the Bush administration. As access is denied to credit markets unemployment rises for small and large businesses and this alone leads to more troubled omeowner loans. nd the auto and credit card debt problems still remain to be worked out creating more downward spiral....

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Did GM miscalculate when after Katrina SUV sales took a dive, in the wake of higher gas prices in the summer of 2005. Instead of gving it thought and thinking about various possible scenarios in the future GM moved up the introduction of a new SUV models program and invested $175 million in updating the the Janesville Wisconsin SUV plant that was turning out 200,000 SUV's a year. And the unions also wanted to hang onto the SUV program and included product guarantees for several of GM's SUV plants, including a new line of SUV's for Janesville to come out in 2012. Each SUV made $10,000 to $15,000 per vehicle whereas passenger cars did not make money. Why? How? Considering that Honda was making profits selling passenger cars and so was Toyota, and Honda stuck to making better cars, and the Germans and the Japanese were not putting all their eggs in one basket. Something strange was going on, kind of a cosy trap for the Detroit automakers.

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The movie "Wolf of Wall Street" with Leonardo Di Caprio was made by Red Granite Pictures which has connections with 1MDB Fund in Malaysia and provided $100 million, according to this story in the WSJ. This story says $1.2 billion was sent by MDB to a Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund investment arm Aabar Investments PJS which setup an identically named company in the British Virgin Islands where the money actually went. The money for the film came from this company in the British Virgin Islands. Najib Razak, Malaysian prime minister's stepson is described to be the head of the Red Granite Pictures Company. The film was never shown in Malaysia for morality reasons and its depiction of a penny stock swindler.

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Little towns onthe Baltic coast like Wismar and Upahl have done well after the building of the new autobahn running through the state of Meklenburg-Pomerania in Germany. Its in the eastern part of the country that previously had only small country roads from there through towns to further east towards the Polish border. The 120 autobahn runs from its western end at Lubeck 35 miles east of Hamburg to the Polish border, Major German bakeries, dairies, automakers and some startups, and smaller companies from other European countries have lifted the economic prospects of ZGermany's poorest region which has seen unemployment at 30% and growth of only 1.5% which now has been raised to the national level of about 2.5%.

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A vote in the Indian parliament leads to the creation of India's 29th state- Telengana. Telengana is the inland part of the state of Andhra Pradesh in southwestern India. Both Telengana and Andhra Pradesh will share the state capital Hyderabad for 10 years.

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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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This editorial in the Economist points to the slow progress made in the first year of the Modi administration in India. Because the last years of the previous Manmohan Singh administration were a period of slowing economic growth and the built up expectations are high, there is a general sense that the Modi administration could have moved faster to make changes. As the Economist points out India is a large region with accumulated problems, and the Modi administration needs to have a good grip on the problems and how it plans to tackle them. Key bottlenecks such as energy will free up huge resources in the economy. How to tackle these individual problems with the most leverage for growth is critical to the approach to be taken, as all of the problems cannot be tackled at once. Coal India is an example of the government trying to find an approach that will work, following previous wholly unsuccessful efforts to overhaul the monopoly coal supplier. Modi also has to work within the framework of democracy, so the Indian experiment in change is likely to involve freeing up other energies for rapid development, unlike the Chinese experiment which was able to use the Communist party's total control of the country and top down direction. Under such a framework Modi will have to improvise and come up with a different framework for making rapid changes, that includes keeping the support of the farmers and working classes for a sustained 10 year effort. Moves such as the 150 million new bank accounts and the structure of providing relief to the poor in rural areas come from a good sensible approach, but also help the Modi administration completely change the way things are done, a cultural change which removes the old culture of support developed by Congress administrations since 1947. A similiar cultural approach is seen in the Clean India campaign, which is huge in cultural terms because in a democracy people have to change the way they think to keep their neighborhoods clean. In this sense the Modi administration as it studies and grapples with the problems to plan effective solutions to seemingly intractable problems in a vast region, is simply laying a strong groundwork for 2016-2018. Steps taken for the groundwork covered separately in the Economist report on India in the issue of May 23, 2016, are the efforts to get a goods and services tax implemented to improve the federal government's revenues, the shift of revenues so that about 62% of revenue goes to the states to promote development- which economic advisor, Arvind Subramanium, calls a big constructive change as states are better at competing for talent capital and investment, and the setting up of the think tank to replace the Soviet style Planning Commission of the Congress administrations since 1947....

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Eric Cantor, a House member from the Richmond area, who is the face behind the zero Republican votes in the House for the Stimulus Plan. He says Democrats should not take the message from this that they should not mess with the Republicans anymore in discussing the plans for the economy. Is this good policy though, when the bill has given some middle ground between tax cuts and spending, and the spending is on areas neglected for years such as roads and bridges, classrooms and energy infrastructure? And is there an element of lack of comprehension by Republicans stuck on ideological grounds, of the seriously deteriorating nature of this crisis which is likely not to come back with recovery in several years, and is a global crisis? When Prime Minister Thatcher, UK Prime Minister, left office, the British infrastructure rail, rapid transit, hospitals and schools, had been neglected for many years and voters were looking for ways to rebuild the dilapidated infrastructure. The economy was weakening under her Conservative party successor, giving the Labor Party its chance to make a come back on the grounds of rebuilding infrastructure and services, and improving the economy. In which case there are just as many risks in this approach of being left out entirely and losing credibility across the country. Sometimes a feel good position may not be the best, or the wisest option, and may be shortsighted. ...

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A look at graphs showing how much and where the $1.9 trillion aid for the pandemic is going for households, businesses, local governments and programs. This package of aid is ready to pass the US Congress in March 2021.

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OECD forecasts show an acceleration of US economic growth in 2021 with the $1.9 trillion aid package of the Biden administration. OECD forecasts show pre-pandemic levels of output reached by mid 2021, 6 months earlier than expected. Global output is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2021, after declining 3.4% in 2020. Main reason- US economy is seen expanding at 6.5%, twice as fast as previously forecast and fastest since 1984. OECD sees the importance of stimulus coinciding with vaccination of the population. The pace in the US with 18 million vaccinated in March and the goal of vaccinating the whole population by May is part of the reason given for the vigorous growth. Astonishingly the OECD sees the US economy larger in end of year 2022 now than it had forecast before the pandemic. For other countries such as India with slower vaccination progress and large population, OECD forecast is for 8% shortfall in growth from what was expected before the pandemic at end of 2022.  This is an amazing bit of good news amid all the dismay and confusion surrounding the coronavirus lockdowns. ...

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More than half of the money in the $1.9 trillion aid package that was passed in the US Congress will go to people who need it most, the unemployed, the poor and struggling Americans on low incomes. The pandemic hit this group very hard. US president Biden has taken on a new role of supporting the poor, not just the working class as he has done with his roots in a working class district in Delaware. Biden says the aid will give the working class and struggling Americans "a fighting chance."

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An outline of ways in which the Biden $1.9 trillion aid package will help ordinary Americans hit hard by the pandemic- the unemployed, people on low incomes, part time workers, the poor, and the struggling working class.

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Andy Kessler looks at the prospects for China's effort to dominate the market for advanced chips used in everyday devices, just as it did in solar panels and electric vehicle batteries.  He says Apple leaves US manufacturing technologies at a disadvantage by securing its M1 processor chip from Taiwan's TSMC. Intel has fallen behind in 10 nanometer chips and will need a few years says Kessler.  Kessler says Chinese threat to invade Taiwan which has made the US and the EU take a firmer stand on Ukraine poses a danger to TSMC which has 5 fabs or factories in just 1 science Park- Hsinchu Science Park. This poses a question is it safe to concentrate about 92% of the world's semiconductor production in one place Taiwan so close to the mainland of China? And knowing sit tight taking no action? Google's last chairman Eric Schmidt asks this question in the WSJ and calls for a new investments in the US to manufacture advanced semiconductors and other semiconductors for everyday use so that the US national security is protected. Even the $50 billion that is in Congressional legislation has yet to be approved by the US Congress, says Schmidt, showing that US Congress is not moving quickly to address this problem. South Korea and Taiwan including TSMC need to be told to make a large part of the semiconductors in the US and other locations such as India to diversify production. 92% of world semiconductors made in Taiwan that could be taken out with a few missiles, is no way to diversify manufacturing, when manufacturing can be done in India or other parts of the world with lower costs and with needed engineering manpower. ...

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Obesity in the US is as high as about 40% in West Virginia, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. It is lowest about 25% in Colorado, Vermont and Hawaii. About 22 states have obesity rate over 35%. Compare this with China which is seeing obesity increase from about 15% in 2023 to 20% in 2034. Real competition between the two countries starts with areas like health care coming out of the pandemic when looking at the true interest of both peoples instead of geopolitics creating a huge distraction from problems of health, climate change and education. Meat intake has tripled in China and a return to more vegetable and fruits and ancient grains is something that is needed badly, also helping tackle climate change. The states in the South and midwestern US have higher rates of obesity followed by northeast and western states. This includes in the South Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas. In Midwest it includes Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas. It is useful to note that this is in Voice of America news which is aimed at an overseas audience and this kind of information is not seen widely in US media. Robust food programs ae needed especially for people living in poverty. Health consciousness needs to be emphasized in all aspects of life and worklife, workspaces, living locations and transportation options all need to be devised around this. Bussel of the Robert Woods Foundation says even ten years back no state had over 35% of the population being obese. Clearly headed in the wrong direction with all the discussion in media run by billionaires on everything but what most affects the quality and ease of living of ordinary people. ...

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"As you know I am 5 foot 10 on the outside and I was way too fat" says the British prime minister about the time he was admitted to hospital for the coronavirus. The British prime minister now goes for a run with his dog first thing in the morning. He says about his life after the coronavirus recovery that he is steadily building up his fitness. He has good things to say about the run, the exercize in the morning. After the run says Boris everything for the rest of the day is a breeze. A quite gentle run in the beginning that is getting faster and faster as he improves his fitness.  One does not have to go to the gym to lose weight. There is always the great outdoors, space outside the home. As part of the effort to get Britain to cut all that unnecessary fat which is ruinous for healthy living, Britain will now ban all buy one get one free deals on unhealthy food products. All food in restaurants and pubs will soon be required to post the calories count on menus, starting with the bigger chains. Boris Johnson says he is supporting the NHS and the national campaign for fitness and cutting out all the unnecessary calories that have crept into people's food habits and intake. He never intended this but Johnson like others have learned from one experience that has compressed several lifetimes of experience trying to recover from the virus without the fitness of body that is needed.      ...

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The Chairman of the House Education Committe rejects a plan from private student loan lenders and is moving ahead with Mr Obama's plan for the government to make student loans directly to students. The president's proposal will save the government $87 billion over 10 years according to the Congressional Budget Office, which can then be used to help poor students pay for college, and lighten the burden on parents for student loans. Its a critical part of making college education affordable.

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Cost overruns on large projects and the change in management at Anglo American. Cynthia Carroll, the current CEO resigned after coming under strong criticism for continuing to push mega mining projects like the Minas Rio iron-ore project in Brazil with a cost of about $10 billion. That project went over twice its estimated value and was 3 years behind schedule. Costs to develop mines are increasing just as iron or prices are falling with lower demand resulting in increasing scrutiny over projects.

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The U.S. Supercommittee in Congress fails to reach an agreement to come up with $1.2 trillion in savings to reduce the deficit by the Nov. 23, 2011 deadline. This shifts the focus to the sequester or triggering automatic cuts in Jan. 2013, as mandated in the Congressional deficit reduction deal of August 2, 2011. These automatic cuts would reduce defense spending by 10%, cut social programs without touching Medicaid and Social Security, by 7.8%, and reduce Medicare payments by 2%.

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The torrential rain and floods in Australia have disrupted coal mining and are likely to lead to higher coal and steel prices. About 98 million tons of annual steel making coal capacity, equal to 73% of coal exported from Queensland is affected according to analysts at Macquarie Capital. This is 37% of the annual, global seaborne supply of coal for steelmakers. Prices for steelmaking coal have gone up by 10% on the spot market to about $250 a metric ton, according to analysts.