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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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Krugman is critical of ECB president Trichet's decision to raise interest rates in 2010, because of the way it affects Spain, Italy, and Portugal. Increase in interest rates by the ECB affect the entire eurozone and this means, he points out, that inflation in Germany would be extremely low -about 1% for the next five years- and the result being that inflation would be much lower in debtor countries like Spain. A decrease in interest rates with inflation at 3-4 % in Germany would be better for the debtor countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland) as this would enable them to cut prices and costs relative to Germany and other creditor countries. The first step taken by the new ECB president, Mario Draghi, was a small increase in interest rates. Krugman asks if the private demand is affected negatively by the end of a debt financed boom in the debtor countries, and austerity programs reduce any growth in the public sector, then where are the new jobs supposed to come from? A policy that reduces the prices of the products of debtor countries relative to creditor countries like Germany- so that exports can generate necessary growth- is needed says Krugman. ...

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Germany recorded 9% growth, in the second quarter of 2010. Martin Wansleben, managing director of Germany's Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says the recovery pace is too fast and unsustainable. The spurt in growth may be shortlived and was mainly a result of a surge in exports to Asian markets. The countries that benefited from this growth are in Northern and Eastern Europe. France recorded 2.5% growth, Austria and the Netherlands 3.5% growth. Eastern European countries that help Germany export also did well, with Slovakia at 5% and Czech Republic at 3% growth. By contrast Southern European countries, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and countries like Ireland have not benefited. German growth has not resulted in markets for other countries as German consumer spending is tight. See the link to the expansion of the low-wage sector in Germany and the downside of this; with average wages actually falling in Germany in recent years.

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From a skate board maker in Zaragoza to other small businesses laying off employees because banks hit by bad loan losses in the housing bubble are calling in their loans, the situation is rippling across Spain in 2012-2013. It will only worsen an already bad unemployment situation with 25% unemployment. Banks are being consolidated and are expected to take bad loan losses under new rules, and increase their capital reserves to account for bad loans. Many of the cajas savings banks are closed or merged with other banks in other regions resulting in loss of contact with local business. Of 45 regional savings banks only 13 remain. The effects of this are being seen across Spain as small and medium sized businesses are seeing banks call in their loans leading to large layoffs. Here a small business owner in Zaragoza with 1.3 million in skateboard sales to 20 countries, sees its bank call in a 250,000 euro loan, and has to layoff all his employees. A childrens shoe company Colores in Zaragoza shuts down for lack of credit. This is happening quickly as banks in the case of Colores are calling the full amount of the loan immediately and the effects may impact Spain for years. About 60% of the economy and 80% of the jobs are from small and medium sized businesses in Spain, and half a million small businesses have closed in the last few years....

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An audit of Spain's banking system by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, shows that Spanish banks would need 53.745 billion euros to be cleaned up if mergers and acquisitions underway are completed.The amount goes up to 59.3 billion euros if this does not happen. Bankia bank will need 24.7 billion euros to meet capital requirements. Three other nationalized banks need 21.5 billion euros, including 3.2 billion euros for Banco Popular. Of the 14 audited banks only 7 need capital infusions. The other banks considered healthy include BBVA, Santander and La Caixa. These findings are similiar to a preliminary finding by Oliver Wyman and estimates provided by Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister, that Spanish banks will need 51 billion to 62 billion euros of capital infusion. Spain's secretary of state for the economy, Fernando Jimenez Latorre, says Spain will soon request about 40 billion euros of the 100 billion euro bailout offer for banks negotiated by Spain in June with the EU. It is not clear whether the capital infusion will go directly to Spain's banks as Spain has argued, or go through the Spanish government. The audits were important to provide credibility through independent assessment of losses in Spain's banking system, and remove the fog of uncertainty that is pushing up Spain's borrowing rate in capital markets....

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Giorgio Napolitano, 87 years, is elected to a second term as president of Italy, after several failed atempts to get other candidates elected in parliament.

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Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist, author of the well researched book on the 2008 financial crisis, "This Time Is Different," gives his thoughts on the economic prospects for the U.S under the new Trump administration. He says 4% GDP growth and 3% inflation is possible temporarily for a while with stimulus policies, less regulation, and increased private investment. After 8 years of not investing in much needed infrastructure because of concerns about the deficit, the timing is right for such investments, especially as the economic effects of the crisis of 2008 gradually fade.  This is about taking advantage of ultra low interest rates to invest in infrastructure. He says it helps that Trump policies are pro-business. He sees drawbacks as the stimulus program adds a 25% increase with extra debt, adding $5 trillion over 10 years, but adds that for many years Nobel prize winning economist Krugman and others have said that there is good reason to increase borrowing to invest, and this is now being tried. Inflation remains an uncertainty- if there are large quantities of underutilized and unemployed resources it would raise prices less than its effect to increase output. The reverse would apply if the U.S. economy is closer to full capacity. One factor that would help- increasing confidence for business and increasing investment. Against this what he calls optimistic view or spin, is the idea of mistakes under a Trump administration, errors made and a degree of incompetence which he says is a real possibility. Overall his view is that some risks are appropriate now, and from his deep study of financial crises sees the slow growth of the last 8 years a result of a financial crisis that now begins to fade, creating the possibility of higher growth under prudent policies.  ...

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The head of one prison guard union in Portugal says things are so bad with spending cuts that he has to take his own toilet paper to work. With spending cuts only one new prison will be built in the Azores, even though Portugal's prisons are very overcrowded and conditions are deteriorating. This provides an unusual insight into a less seen part of life in Portugal with austerity spending cuts.

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The yield on Italy's two year bonds reached 7.269% on November 9, 2011. Italy needs to rollover $300 billion in debt over the next 12 months. And liquidity is becoming a serious problem as investors become cautious about buying Italian bonds. Investors who were attracted to the higher yields on Italian bonds now see the market as too unstable to make purchases. Peter Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London, says that the Italian bond market, the third largest in the world, was quite liquid, with investors buying or selling 500 millon euros of Italian bonds at a clip. Now, he says, its hard to trade more than 50 million euros. The only hope is to get enough stability and confidence back into the market, as Italy is too large for any rescue effort by the ECB, IMF or the EFSF. With some stability Black Rock's Fundamental Fixed Income portfolio's chief investment officer, Rick Rieder, says Italian bonds are something he would buy.

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The ECB stands ready to act with the unanimous support of its 25 member governing policy, says Mario Draghi, president of the ECB. Draghi said that "if oil feeds into other prices, that could generate exactly what we want to avoid, namely a spiralling downward phenomenon" for wages and prices. Mark Carney of the Bank of England, says he will see "how things evolve." The U.S. Federal Reserve might slow planned rate increases in 2016, if inflation remains well below the target of 2%, and conditions indicate adverse effect on the economy.

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The EU statistics agency Eurostat reported that the eurozone countries GDP declined by 0.3% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter of 2011. The decline for Germany was 0.2%. For Italy the decline was 0.7% over the prior quarter according to Istat, the Italian statistics agency. Spain 0.3% decline over the prior quarter. France experienced 0.2% growth over the prior quarter with larger exports by Airbus and more business investment. Italy plans cuts to military spending reducing aircraft purchases, buying 90 instead of 131 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets. Only France and Slovakia showed quarterly growth.

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Spain's Bankia bank makes headway in the recovery by 2014. Bankia chairman Goirigolzarri says it was "not impossible" that the government would recover the 22.4 billion euros it put in Bankia. Bankia reported net profit of 512 million euros for 2013. Problems remain as 15% of its total loans are more than 90 days overdue yearend 2013, increasing from 13% in 2012. There are billions of dollars of bad loans in a "bad bank." Shares are up 65% since Sept 2013, up to 1.31 euros in Jan 2014. The government valued the bank shares at 1.35 euros at the time of the bailout in 2012.

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The Ifo Institute monthly business confidence survey shows a reading of 104.7 for November, up from 103.2 in October 2014.

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Bad loans in Spain's banking system reached a high of 8.16% of total loans by banks in Feb. 2012, according to the Bank of Spain. The total amount of bad loans was 144 billion euros.

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Ireland and Portugal both have debt to GDP ratios of more than 100%. Still Ireland is better positioned to weather the eurozone crisis. Foreign investment attracted by low taxes and an educated labor force gives Ireland signficant advantages to return to growth. Citigroup forecasts show a 5.5% decline in GDP for Portugal in 2012, and large probabilities that the deficit will overshoot. Ireland expects 0.5% growth in 2012. Ireland's exports are 60% of GDP, compared to 24% for Portugal. Yields on Portuguese bonds due 2020 are at 13%, compared to less than 7% for Ireland. But funding Portugal through the end of 2015 is expected to cost 40 billion euros, according to Capital Economics estimates, or only 0.4% of eurozone GDP, making the problem in Portugal very manageable for the EU.