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What oil prices are doing to the redistribution of wealth across the globe. How rich and poor countries are coping. Money going to gasoline is still only 4% of disposable income of U.S. households and the USA hasn't lost its addiction to large vehicles, though there has been a moderate shift to smaller cars and SUV's. Chinese demand keeps growing. Fuel Economy standards are only now being changed and few alternatives are emerging quickly enough to make a difference in the short run. Though a worldwide recessionary climate could change things, no major change is expected. Airlines and the auto industry will be the most affected industries. Global warming and CO2 emissions will be a factor in evaluating how well these alternative are working. With oil and gas prices high, unfortunately coal use is increasing both in China and elsewhere. And ethanol hasn't won popularity because it uses up scarce resources of land, water and energy. A big change is the shift to most of the action going to government oil companies of developing countries, which are much larger now and have the resources to handle what the oil majors did before. Western oil service companies are working with government oil companies bringing access to technology....

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Behind the June jobs numbers is the information that the average workweek fell to 33 hours, the lowest ever on record, and 0.8 hours lower than before the recession began. With the extra 48 minutes the same aggregate work says Denning of the WSJ, could be done by 3.3 million fewer employees. And the unemployment rate would then be 11.7% rather than the 9.5% it is now. The number of people working parttime has doubled to about 9 million or about 5.8% of the workforce. Employers will first try to employ parttime workers as full time, and increase hours of existing workers before they hire new workers deepening the recession.

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Much of what is written here about Xi Jinping pursuing Chinese socialist vision was known since he became president in 2013 when China's Communist party was losing its appeal, and efforts were made to seize power within the communist party by a leader in the western province of Chongqing. Bo Xi Lai attempted to take advantage of the situation with appeals to the working class and without any genuine commitment beyond a power grab. It was well known that Xi Jinping is a son of one of the veterans of the Communist party under Mao, Xi Zhongxun, unlike leaders who followed premier Deng Xiaoping such as Jiang Zemin. Zemin was a relatively unknown figure who was in university during the crucial period of 1947-49 when Mao came to power in mainland China. It would not be correct to say that little was known about Xi's own ideas about socialism as the long term answer to China's problems. Xi also came in as president at a time when the Communist party was losing its appeal to working class people after three administrations that followed premier Den Xiaoping. These three administrations followed a form of state capitalism that allowed companies to pollute the environment, compete without any regulations, and allowed to operate without any controls as long as they pursued growth aggressively and expanded the economy.There was an effort by Communist party regional leader in western Chinese province of Chongqing, Bo Xi Lai, to use this as an opportunity to grab power in China. During his first year as president Xi had to resolve this issue by having a court trial after revelations of corruption and misuse of power by Bo Xi Lai.  Xi's father Zhongxun's role in the revolutionary movement offers clues to Xi's own convictions and faith in the party. Zhongxun was a communist soldier who set up the revolutionary base areas in Shanxi-Gansu northwest border region of China that provided a refuge for Mao's army following the Long March. Other clues come from Zhongxun's role as head of propaganda during the period after 1944 and in 1952. Xi's family background particularly on his mother's side shows a fervent commitment to Chinese socialist vision during the chaotic years when the Japanese invaded China and Chiang Kai-Shek's nationalist forces failed to defend China's sovereignty. One reason Xi has been less understood is that little attention is paid to Xi's mother, Qi Xin who was highly educated and fervently believed in Chinese socialism and nationalist spirit during the Japanese invasion in 1938. In fact Qi Xin had to leave middle school after the Japanese took over Beijing. She joined the Counter Japanese Political and Military University to continue education and in 1941 attended the Central Party school. She met Xi's father Zhongxun in 1944. In 1953 she enrolled in the Marx School of Communism, and it was her position at the school that offered her husband added protection during the Cultural Revolution that affected Deng Xiaoping and others. With such a history in the 1930's, 1940's, and 1950's it is likely that Xi was profoundly influenced by his father's role in the revolutionary movement, and his mother's faith in socialism with national spirit as the way to protect against the foreign invasions. It would now appear that by the time Xi joined the Politburo in 2003 there was no question about the future course China would take given the role of his parents, and the events of 1938 the fall of Beijing, his mother having to flee, and the events that followed. Xi showed resilience during the period of the Great Proletarian Revolution when he was sent to the villages at a time when he would be studying in school and college. He was sent to an agricultural commune in largely rural Shanxi province where he worked as a manual laborer alongside other people and developed a relationship with the local farmers. Unlike other leaders during that period which could even be said about premier Deng Xiaoping in 1989, Xi took a different lesson from this experience largely because his father and mother were committed to the socialist vision for the long run. His father was still not fully rehabilitated by premier Chou en-lai when Xi was allowed to enter Beijing's Tsinghua University in 1975. He studied chemical engineering at Tsinghua graduating in 1979. Upon graduation he worked as a assistant for 3 years to a vice premier who was minister of defense. He then left Beijing for Hebei province to work as a deputy secretary of the provincial CCP. He was made Mayor of Xiamen, then governor of Fujian province in 1999 where he tackled environmental conservation before moving to Zheziang province. His father passed away in 2002 and it would appear that he was carefully trained in different provinces instead of staying in Beijing, for a position of national leadership. Xi got his break in 2007 when the upper leadership of Shanghai city was tainted in a wide ranging pension fund scheme. He was made party secretary for Shanghai. This was the position Jiang Zemin had held before he succeeded premier Deng Xiaoping. In only a few months in October 2007 Xi was made one of the 8 Politburo members, ready to succeed Hu Jintao as president. Xi's perception of being sent to the villages and making it to university education was that it was part of the long run socialist struggle, with pain that his father had also endured as simply a phase in which things would be right in the end. Xi's mother comes across as a resilient figure and one who had herself gone through the struggles of the 1930's and aided her husband on one occasion. Some of this resilience could have been passed on to the son. Xi's wife is a zealous participant in Chinese dance and music performances that created enthusiasm for the Chinese socialist revolution from the 1930's period. In his conversations  with colleagues in the party, in culture and temperament, Xi has been forthright about this background and his style of work.  Xi is unlike premier Deng and the presidents who succeeded him such as Hu Jintao mentored by a former mayor of Shanghai Jiang Zemin who came to power in 1989. Xi is more in line with the leaders around Mao like his father in his outlook and thinking, with a cautious temperament that comes from years going through ups and downs of political struggles. He is once said to have responded with dismay about being in a top position in the government knowing how precarious this had been for his father. The education at Tsinghua, his engineering background, and his easy familiarity with farmers in the provinces, mean that he understands China and its history well enough to have the confidence to shape Chinese policies in a way that none of his predecessors had except Mao, premier Chou-en-lai, Liu Shao Chi and a few veterans from that time in the 1930's. That Xi waited patiently for so long to gradually assert his ideas about socialist vision for China may be the surprising part of his behaviour till 2021.  It may be that he wanted to make the changes only after he could persuade party leaders and colleagues of his vision and long run goals. And because the Chinese economy had grown so large that it would take time to steer the ship in a different direction for the long term. In most of the negotiations with president Trump he cautiously let trade negotiators handle the situation, all the time learning about how to tackle problems of China's relationship with US and Europe. US president Biden also has a vision that is veering towards a socialist perspective in terms of bringing gains of progress to workers and families. So does Mr. Trump, Mr. Boris Johnson in UK, and Social Democrat's Scholz in Germany. It is both economic and political as Mr. Xi is quoted as saying in this WSJ report. The necessities of such action are both economic, social and politically driven as capitalism has veered way off course.  In this report it is mentioned that Soho China 40% stake was taken by a large capital markets firm in New York in the hope of large gains, as Soho China developer was a tycoon who wanted to leave China. Seeing it as not favorable to his company following events in Hong Kong. This behaviour of capital markets groups in New York and tech companies in Silicon Valley, driven by profits and not aware of the social and economic problems of working class American families is a problem in the US and in Europe. It is also what has driven so many large tech companies to expand manufacturing operations in China, that hurt US manufacturing capabilities and American workers jobs- an issue raised by president Trump and taken up by president Biden. Biden has already moved to make Intel Corporation change its plans and invest in American manufacturing technologies in a quietly implemented U turn. US president Biden is left with the unenviable job of solving this huge problem during the pandemic. He has also committed to a somewhat socialistic vision with a $3.5 trillion plan for workers and families, as has vice chancellor Scholz in Germany with his own version of programs, after the failures of unregulated forms of capitalism. Scholz goes so far as to say his mission is to show that there is really no such thing as a self-made man, that it is help from society, his fellow citizens, and government, that makes it possible for him to do his work. In a sense the world is shifting away from Reagan forms of capitalism without regulation after seeing disastrous results during the pandemic. Not just China. Some form of government guidance and regulations are now seen as essential in China, the US, UK, Germany and India for a better society and a better, healthier life, and for opportunity for all in each country.   ...

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Half of the 109 economists and housing analysts polled in October 2010 by MacroMarkets LLC, expect home prices to bottom in 2011, and half don't expect home prices to bottom till 2012. Backing this up is growing inventory in many markets. The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of housing market conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas showed inventories of unsold homes were up in 19 markets at the end of 3rd quarter 2010, compared to the prior year. The largest increases were in California- in Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Diego. Only parts of Texas, and Washington D.C, and some other areas which have shown decent job growth are an exception. In the Realtor's Report, median home price fell 2.4% to $171,700 in September 2010 from a year earlier. This data does not include the suspension of foreclosures due to title defects, which will further dampen prospects of a recovery in housing. This will affect New Jersey, Florida and other "judicial" states, where the banks must complete foreclosures through court. At the current sales pace it would take 10.7 months to sell the 4.04 million home inventory of unsold homes, according to the recent NAR report. Six to eight months is considered normal. This does not reflect the "shadow" inventory of homes in some stage of foreclosure, which is estimated at around 4 million, creating a problem that even current low rates for a fixed rate mortgage of 4.21% cannot solve....

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The International Energy Agency sees a shortfall of 12.5 million barrels a day when it compares the needed 37.5 million barrels a day by 2015 with the planned supply increases showing 25 million barrels a day. A lot depends on the assumptions and what the 37.5 million barrels a day is based on. Does it account for a slowdown in the world economy and a drive for fuel efficiency and conservation habits by 2015? How much of this is reflected in the numbers? And on the planned increases of 25 million barrels a day- does it account for increases that may be planned in 2009 and 2010 in response to prices above $150 a barrrel which is expected? The IEA has a team of 25 analysts working on the forecasts but it gets no cooperation from Saudi Arabia about its individual fields production, and Venezuela, Iran and China also keep their information a secret. This makes supply forecasting a difficult business. IEA uses IHS Inc a data provider, USA Geologic Survey, oil and service companies information and national petroleum councilds information....

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Is a cup of coffee at inflated prices a completely discretionary expense especially when a Dunkin Donuts or a McDonalds can get you on that is reasonably close for flavor and quality? And how much is the Italian cafe like atmosphere worth in a economic dowtturn? Starbucks is closing 600 stores this year and laying off 12,000 full time or oart time retail employees. But it has 172,000 employees as of 2007 and 11,000 stores, of this an astounding 70% have opened since the fall of 2005 showing how big an expansion happened in the closing days of the boom economy just when Starbucks was losing its grip on customers and Dunkin Donuts and McDonalds were moving upscale into its territory at lower prices.

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France is moving quickly with spending on the $37 billion stimulus. Public buildings, museums, cathedrals and historical sites are being renovated in 2009. About 50 chateaus, and 75 cathedrals are part of 100 million euros for cultural centres. About 75% of France's stimulus money will be spent in 2009, in contrast to the slow work in the USA.

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What is the role of a small wine importer of European wines who supplies local stores in NY city, and other similar business, in a issue of $1 trillion trade imbalances that destroyed American manufacturing and millions of jobs as large US business corporations shipped manufacturing to China? The trade deficit with China has led to loss of 3.8 million jobs, 75% of them or 2.9 million in manufacturing.  Go back to 1990 and Beijing was a city of bicycles not cars. If Beijing shifted to a open economy and simply imported products from the US and Europe as it had done since 1700 it would have remained a backward agricultural economy. It took 20 years of focused effort after 2000 for China with US technological assistance to excel in manufacturing, as the US had done after 1920. Can or cannot the US excel in Manufacturing with its own focused effort and restore jobs and decent wages to the American people, that is the question. That a $1 trillion deficit that has already destroyed the US manufacturing and its capacity to defend itself by rapidly building up the US Navy, is that not an emergency, then what is, is also the question, and the role, the duty, of the president of the US in such a situation. The federal appeals court has allowed the DJT Tariffs to remain in place till it goes to the US Supreme Court. Today May 30 the WSJ in a front page article shown here says the one California shipyard could assemble a supply ship in 5 days in 1942. China's independence in the fight against Imperial Japan and the Kwantung Army's adventures, and the independence of Europe in the 1940's depended on this vital US capacity. Is this forgotten? FDR acted step by step by 1938 to restore the US lost capacity at that time, what is the role of the president today? ...

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The Muslim Brotherhood is thrust into a critical role as economic policymaker after winning the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood's foreign policy advisor, Essam El-Haddad, says it gave the IMF its tentative approval for a $3.2 billion loan to Egypt. Haddad says it was a very, very short time for the learning process to occur about the economic issues facing Egypt and the IMF. Foreign investment peaked in 2007 at $13.7 billion. It is now a small fraction of this and tourism earnings have declined to a third of what they were before. The Brotherhood cites the example of Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party formed the government in 2002. At the time Turkish inflation was at 55%, the currency Turkish Lira had lost 51% of its value and GDP fell by 5.7%. Turkey has seen high economic growth in the last decade.

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No indication that Gulf money is that much better spent this time, as another flood of petrodollars hits the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with no idea for how long. The huge reserves of dollars built up by the large exporting nations of manufactured products and commodities may have created a huge surge in liquidity that indirectly caused the spending boom that fueled realestate and domestic retail markets in the USA from which the US will take a long time to recover. So these large surpluses of petrodollars cannot be looked at without some concern as they create distortions in the allocation of resources and in spending habits in different nations in the world economy and in different ways. A too low price of oil simply let fuel economy fade as a concern and let fuel economy standards become stagnant for over two decades and a splurge in light trucks and large fuel guzzling vehicles. The freespending buying habits sustained development in China but the low prices of lowend manufacturing goods also led to too much concentration on that kind of manufacturing in China leading to an environmental breakdown. And corrective action comes a llittle late when a lot of the damage has been done and only after this is the alarm raised and the corective action taken. Meantime while these excesses are taking place its seen as a strength as some industrial sectors grow richer and as soon as the excesses become a problem these very industrial sectors become a weakness. Take a look at the auto industry in the USA and the small manufacturers in Guangdong province in China....

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Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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A new West Coast Model is emerging with ballot measures in the states of Washington, California and Oregon. The model is to make up for decades of faulty income distribution which favored tech communities in west coast states leaving behind people from minority communities and the working class outside tech hubs such as San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle. During this period budgets for education and healthcare, social services and essential infrastructure suffered as budgets were squeezed for local governments. Minimum wage also lagged behind and communities struggled to keep up. Washington votes for a ballot measure that raises the minimum wage to $13.25 statewide and mandate paid sick leave for workers. In California a ballot measure makes permanent an income tax surcharge on millionaires to use these funds for education. In Oregon measure 97 places a gross receipts tax on corporations with annual sales in Oregon over $25 million, raising $3 billion a year for schools, health care and other programs. The California and Washington measures are likely to pass, Oregon uncertain, say experts. And even in Oregon supporters have learned from the experience to put forward new proposals on the ballot. The Washington measure is supported by Nick Hanauer, and Zach Silk, president of Civic Ventures in Seattle, who say it is essential to put more money in workers wages to increase growth and to bring better lives outside the tech hub areas. Most of the tech booms of the last two decades have not touched the areas outside tech hub metropolitan areas. The conservative approach adopted in Louisiana and Kansas of reducing taxes first and then when holes in state budgets developed to cut education, health and other service expenditures has not worked, and it has led to the backlash in the form of the new West Coast Model, which is expected to be brought up in other states in the east and midwest. The tech hub areas have grown with the boom in tech but this has largely ignored the rural areas, communities just outside of the tech cities, and led to uneven and distorted growth shortchanging the working class and the middle class, and hurting investment in education and healthcare across each state. Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution conservative think tank ,says that its hard to deny that the balanced growth for all communities across the state has lagged far behind as the tech booms boosted growth in the economies of California, Oregon and Washington. An article in the German online site Zeit on Silicon Valley described this vividly showing how this can happen in communities sitting side by side in the San Jose area, with minority Hispanic communities and working class communties seeing very little of the benefits of growth. ...

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As the Obama administration plans a large stimulus spending plan that may approach $1 trillion over several years, considering also the second phase of the $800 billion first phase stimulus, there is a concern that there may be wasteful spending and social costs of borrowing and spending by the government of such proportions. In economics jargon this hinges on whether there is amultiplier effect of spending, higher if its efficiently and well spent with less impact on private consumption and investment, and lower if the opposite were true. The assumption behind amultiplier of 1.0 for an additional bridge or road is that resources like manpower and capital that would be otherwise idle are deployed to produce something useful. An increase in one unit of government purchases increases by one unit the real gross domestic product. The government has effectively created the additional bridge or road without a cut in anybody's consumption or a businesses investment. The other contrasting approaches are to say there is a multiplier of zero, meaning there is a social cost in two ways. One the reduction of consumption and the crowding out of businesses investing in new products and technologies for example, and second in the inefficent use of resources if a government bureaucracy is put to work allocating money and the additional dangers of favoritism and corruption. To say that there is a multipier of 1.5 would mean that the government figures out a way to get private investment through conversion of plants for automotive parts say to make wind turbine blades by giving incentives, tax benefits and grants, spends on a dilapidated road and public transportation infrastructure that may provide benefits in increased growth capacity over future years. The limits of a government bureaucracy and inefficiency of government would in this case be addressed by transparency rules adopted and measures that track progress that are freely available to all citizens say on a website on the internet, and by bringing in fresh management talent from the private sector. There appears to be no generalization that can be applied for one multiplier for all projects. It may be that the multiplier will vary with the project. Some projects like the conversion of a factory making unneeded auto parts to a badly needed wind energy part, to change the dynamics of energy market pricing, to meet energy needs and cut emissions, may end up having a multiplier much above 1.0. A redundant or less needed bridge has a lower multiplier than a bridge rebuilt before it leads to breakdown. And also the complication that too large a movement in one direction say of stimulus spending, might result in a shift of the curve towards a smaller multiplier and diminishing returns, as the resources to track such a large expenditure and the talent to adminster are overextended. The social cost of private investment not making that investment in new technology, new product or improved product has to be figured into all this, both at the conceptual level as all costs and benefits may not be picked up in the analysis, and at the macro level keeping in mind that the animal spirits, as they were once described, may just not be there to absorb the huge outlays which a government can make. These do not come without an opportunity cost and borrowing costs. All this leads one to to conclude that spending has to be carefully evaluated and projects assessed on a case by case basis for costs and benefits. The spending has to be balanced to provide just as many incentives for private investment to invest in new products and technologies. One way the Obama team is attempting to address this is to include a $300 billion tax cut for businesses and individuals. The business tax cuts are aimed at helping small business with losses, and for future investments and making hires and forgoing layoffs. The other part relates to careful evaluation of spending projects and transparency so the people can see if they are effective. See the link to this....

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Chinese leaders at annual policy meeting turn to issues facing nation's 730 millon farmers, as urban outcomes year after year far outpace growth of rural incomes. See graph. Urban incomes have shot up just as rural incomes remain sluggish as the country has focused on rapid industrialization, rapid urbanization and an export driven manufacturing economy for two decades with some success because of the focused effort. But this focused effort is dependent on the ability of Western Europe and the USA as well as other countries sucking in cheaper Chinese manufactured goods. This ability of the western countries to absorb Chinese manufactured goods at an astonishing rate is now called into question, and maybe permanently impaired after years of out of control consumption and spending and easy credit with the impact of the credit and housing crisis. As one of the aspects of this focused effort was to make enough rapid progress in industry and urbanization that it could stay ahead of the problems facing the rural areas and farmers, the new situation in western countries and China's lowered growth rate with lower exports, calls for new thinking on how to address the problems facing the rural areas and farmers. Part of the problem is that farmers do not own land in China. The government owns all the land and China's farmers only have 30 year leases on the land and technically that land cannot be sold though it can be transferred. A related aspect to this is that farms though having 50% more productivity than in 1980 are still small by western standards and it takes a lot of land to feed the growing needs of a more affluent urban population. The typical Chinese farm is 1.5 acres compared to 15 acres in Hungary and Poland and 432 acres in the USA. Obviously the US farms are huge and China does not have the vast acreages of land compared to the people, but larger farms would enable the kind of improvements posible on larger farms to raise productivity. Ways have to be found to increase farmers incomes and to enable farmers to move to urban areas which means creating more jobs. This will have to be done in the context of a domestic led growth and trade with other Asian countries as the export drive and export industries shipping products to western countries see their growth fall. ...

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The first presidential debate with Clinton and Trump is moderated by Lester Holt. The debate included an exchange on Trump's tax returns, policing in inner cities, and national security. The debate was broadcast by all television stations and was watched by over 100 million viewers. Trump made three times the interruptions made by Clinton. The birther issue raised by Trump also came up, and was cited as a "hurtful lie" by Clinton as it persisted long after the birth certificate information was seen by the public. In one exchange Clinton told Trump when he referred to all the infrastructure that had not been built, that one of the reasons was he had not payed taxes.

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The economy is actually better, much better and economic facts support this says Krugman. He says the public understands and says that local conditions are much better, only that the public has a perception it is worse in other parts of the US away from them, which is not supported by the facts. This he calls a viberecession a feeling coming out of higher prices at retail and grocery stores and higher housing costs taking up a larger share of the budget sometimes over half.

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The U.S. Congress passed free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama, in October 2011. The deals are expected to increase U.S. exports by $13 billion, including $11 billion to S. Korea.

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Changes to Venezuela's constitution planned by Chavez are likely to go through, an attempt to entrench his idea of a socialist revolution. Apparently it has the support of the working classes and the poor and rural areas, but the educated elite continues to shun Chavez's moves. The polarization does not help the country's development. As long as oil prices are high this works well, but a drop in revenues could make it difficult to finance the largesse such as 6 hour work days and other efforts to simply pour money to reduce poverty, without building employment in sectors of the economy other than oil. The Persian Gulf countries are facing rising population, and have gone through prior experience where even high oil revenues followed by dropping oil prices have made it difficult to support social expenditures because of budget shortfalls. However whether other governments in Venezuela have done better in terms of development and building employment is also uncertain. Chavez simply alienates the educated elite. Yet considering Venezuela's historical polarization of classes and politics could things really be expected to be different in a power shift is a question mark. Consider also that Simon Bolivar got his start here. ...

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Stanley Fischer, former head of the Bank of Israel, is the likely candidate for vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2014. Fischer is author of a 1977 paper in which he supported an activist central bank monetary policy to tackle economic downturns. As deputy director of the IMF he helped build the "Washington Consensus," which supported flexible exchange rates, free capital flows and balanced budgets. The IMF austerity policies came under much criticism in S. Korea, other Asian countries, Russia, and Latin America during this period, especially high interest rates and sharp spending cuts during downturns. He is a former MIT professor and a dual citizen of Israel and the U.S., born in Zambia (Northern Rhodesia).