LyrArc Article Gist
In an astonishing contrast to other European countries, including neighbors Norway, FInaland and Denmark, the Swedish government decided to not impose a lockdown, keeping bars, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms, primary and middle schools open. Secondary schools, museums were closed, sports gatherings, gatherings of more than 50 people were not allowed. Social distancing was not enforced, and entirely voluntary. Sweden now has 29000 cases according to Statista and its death rate of 358 per million population is higher than in the U.S. which is 267, and Denmark 93, Finland 53.  Critics such as Lena EInhorn, a virologist, say the Swedish government did not set up a broad testing program, and let a problem develop for elder care in nursing homes. She says a 14 day quarantine of household members of a person infected with the virus would have made a difference. Most action we take for granted was not taken in Sweden. Restaurants that were not required to close spread airborne transmission. Einhorn also says that the government officials have denied it but under their breaths they have acknowledged working on a herd immunity strategy. Denmark has opened schools with social distancing and other measures and reopened its economy. Sweden is in reverse with calls for stricter action and an ongoing debate. No reopening as there was no lockdown, yet considerable and nagging uncertainty. The speed of transmission of coronavirus is the biggest danger, as it can let the numbers grow very quickly if the wrong decisions are taken or something is left out. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Timeline in NYT on DJT-Jamieson USTR  Tariffs to March 13, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to go into effect April 2, 2025 on Mexico and Canada. Reciprocal tariffs are seen as based on fairness- "we charge them what they charge us."  Why is this action necessary?  Because Canada, Mexico, EU, South Korea, Japan, China gained unfair advantages due to the inaction of administrations dating back to Clinton, Bush, Obama which were never reversed. Other nations have no incentive to trade on the principle of fairness inducing the US to take action to open discussions on fair trade and on what the tariffs should be going forward from 2025. US Trade Representative Lighthizer under DJT first term was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he negotiated fair trade with the Japanese in the 1980's who he says stalled and stalled till finally agreeing to real discussions. So this is nothing new China, Canada and Mexico have taken the place of Japan. In this second term of DJT Lighthizer's Deputy Trade Representative is now the US Trade Representative. This means the discussions are in the hands of seasoned American trade officials with a keen grasp of details supported by Scott Bessent at Treasury and Luttnick at Commerce Department. What it is NOT is an effort to coerce other nations by the US. Like Japan in the 1980's with Reagan and Lighthizer as USTR, in 2025 China, Canada, Mexico, South Korea Taiwan and other nations would like to slow this return to fair trade by stalling and stalling, and presenting a different picture of the facts. But will that work? As it did not with Japan in the 1980's when Lighthizer got them to sit down to have real discussions on fair trade. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
With 9.5 million barrels a day cut for U.S. G20 and OPEC+ negotiated by president Trump many Texas oil wells will be shut in. Even with these cuts price is sensitive after dropping to $22 by April 12, 2020. The cuts averted a complete collapse in oil prices when markets opened on April 13. By April 12 oil demand worldwide had fallen by 30 million barrels a day. That is how grave the situation was. By doing so the U.S. protected its oil industry. There was complete lack of leadership from Russia, Saudis, Mexico and other countries until president Trump intervened with strong action. Trump threatened tariffs on imported oil to protect the U.S. oil industry if other nations did not come to terms, including calls from U.S. senators telling prince Abdulaziz the Saudi oil minister the U.S. Saudi relationship could not be salvaged if the Saudis did not come to an agreement. Once again president Trump's tariff moves worked, this time to save the world oil industry and oil producing economies such as Russia from severe hardship. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Macron as president of France does not agree to cohabitation appointing 4 prime ministers over 4 years who are replaced or lose public confidence. The last Bayrou is an experinced politician who tried to get austerity cuts including eliminating 2 public holidays. The Socialist bloc led by Melenchon and Le Pen's Marie Pen bring down Bayrou in a no confidence vote. Following the election of the National Assembly Macron had an opportunity he missed of cohabitation with the Socialists Party bloc and letting its leader Melenchon or someone else in the Socialist Bloc, a more acceptable face to the Macronists form a new government. Instead he has weakened France and it's economy by taking a rigid approach. This is a reversal of his posture during his entry into politics which depended on the Socialists leader president Hollande accepting Macron into his government as Minister for the economy. Macron formed his own party with deft moves to retire the Gaullist and Socialist parties that have ruled France since 1945. Winning the presidency once and barely winning the second time after protests by Yellow Vests on the cost of living and an imperial presidency, the very same problem that Nicholas Sarkozy had of not being close to the people and their concerns about migrants, cost of living and the deindustrialized parts of France, neglect of farmers and rural areas also seen in the US. With this France is in a bit of drift with younger voters looking elsewhere for the future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Julian Payne shares with us a day in the life of Prince Charles, now Charles III, in The Times. Charles is shown to be a person of boundless energy, who is keen to help on many efforts to improve life on the planet. He gets involved in the detail of conversations which run longer than usual. He is careful not waste resources and his shoes go through remending. He starts the day with a breakfast of seasonal fruit salad and tea, skips lunch and takes tea with fruit cake at 5 pm. The fruit cake is kept for use the next day and the next, so that nothing is wasted, such is his passion for no waste and using all resources carefully. Payne says he has a hatred for waste and gives much though to efficient use of resources. Dinner is at 8.30 pm and he works right into the midnight hour. His work day is relentless. And he loves the outdoors, his windows remain open. If you found yourself outdoors with the prince in winter, you may not be able to keep up says Payne.  Many say he has been highly underestimated. And his habits and his ways, his hard work, dedication, sincerity, and his sense of purpose may still surprise his country. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Kerala and Tamilnadu states with declining fertility, migration and ageing society are outliers in India with about half its population under the age of 25. About 600 million people in India are in the 18-35 age group- a clear case of rising aspirations society is happening in India at the very time that the US and European Union are looking at India for the future with shared values of representative democracy, open societies, and building a new supply chain in Asia. This BBC report looks at the state of Kerala where migration is leaving parts of the state only with elderly people. About 10% of the $100 billion in remittances each year from Indians overseas come to the state of Kerala. Life span is about 75 years in Kerala exceeding the national life span of 69 years. However this is looking at it backwards as India remains a vibrantly young country even with the advances in longevity where much of India is close to age 70 years in longevity and advances in medical care and health are taking place at a rapid pace. The problems of Kerala are an outlier for India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Eduardo Porter compares Italy's propensity to collect and invest tax dollars in healthcare and public services to a much greater degree than the U.S. In 2007 he points out Italy spent 25% of its output on social programs such as health, food and housing, compared to 16% in the U.S. He reflects on the possible reasons for this based on research. Italians see the tax dollars at work in a health care system that works for them and their children, as in this example of Eduardo and his child at a health clinic in Liguria, Italy. In the U.S. there is less evidence of this and the sense that government is likely to waste tax dollars, that the individual is better able to make choices. The less homogenous society in the U.S. also means there is less support for public services that might benefit other lingusitic and cultural groups.There is also the feeling that in American society there is greater oportunity for the less well off to join the upper class given the open capitalist framework, as compared to Italy where connections and traditional advantages matter. Some experts attribute this to smaller taxes leading to economic growth, but Porter says the examples of Sweden, Norway, and Japan showed growth was higher or similiar to that in the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts to improve U.S. Russian cooperation beginning with the Trump negotiated oil deal with Russia, OPEC, and Saudi Arabia. A joint statement by Putin and Trump on the 75th anniversary of the meeting at the Elbe River on April 25, 1945 between American and Soviet troops. The effort to rekindle the spirit of the Elbe at a time of global health crisis.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ asks the question how are companies run in America by CEO's during the 9 month old pandemic? To answer that question it looks at Emerson Electric, based in Ferguson, Missouri, with its 90,000 employees in the U.S. and around the world. David Farr is CEO of American conglomerate Emerson Electric that makes products in a number of industries, for longer than most CEO's in America. At 65 years today, he has managed the company since he became CEO at the age of 45. It has 8000 employees in China and 10,000 in Mexico, and plants in the midwest, all hard hit by the pandemic. Add to this racial riots after killing of a black man in Ferguson, Missouri, and you have a challenging situation for any CEO.    As a son of a plant manager at a Corning plant in Corning, New York and growing up in a manufacturing environment in England, his instincts are that customers are what matter the most. That shrinking production could lead to some competitors making it and others shrinking if they did not act quickly to protect their supply chains. His goal is to keep factories running to have parts ready for their customers who made the finished product in the oil and gas industry and in factories where Emerson supplied the automated processes. As a first step he has 7 charter planes fly parts from a Nanjing factory to Shanghai when the trucks stopped moving. He campaigns with the Mexican ambassador to the U.S. to have the company listed as essential business to be kept open in a lockdown but fails. He gets up at 5.30 am and works till 8 pm and spends most nights reading, lounging with 2 spaniels, and going to bed early. He tells his son who works at Caterpillar company to get back to work as soon as he can as he believes being on the job is really really important. Yet he is worried up his daughter working as a pastry chef in New York and wants her to come back home to the midwest. He is a manager in the old style saying he wouldn't hire American workers because the Obama administration was out to destroy American manufacturing with its environmental rules forgetting that he was doing just that in the end-  and what had America and the concept of a free nation and a free people with opportunities for all have anything to do with like or dislike of any president or party. He also has his quirks, keeping 5 baseball bats and swinging a bat while he took walks and did some thinking. Passionate, hard working, and getting it done he keeps Emerson in the game as an industrial competitor from the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is at the center of talks for resolution of the crisis in Europe over Ukraine. Under the arrangement setup under OSCE with Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France as members the security arrangements in Europe are set forth- all nations as member states will respect each others national sovereignty. Russia's approach to settle its concerns about Ukraine joining NATO on its borders was to exclude European Union and deal with this entirely as a US Russia issue. For Europe turning to the OSCE emphasizes Europe's role to solve disputes in its own backyard. This opens up ways to bring all parties to the table for talks. This is because the US position remains firm not conceding on the point of Ukraine choosing its own future and foreign affairs, in effect preserving the right of all of Eastern Europe to choose its own future, something gained after the fall of the Soviet Union. The US approach is also to use an information war of sorts to deter invasion by saying an invasion is imminent. This places the ball right back in the European court in this war of nerves. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

LyrArc Article Gist
By July 2013 only about 40% of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation rules were completed, 60% of deadlines were missed, according to law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP. A singular aspect of the Dodd-Frank legislation was that rule making was left to regulators in different agencies and open to lobbying by the financial industry. This has the effect of delaying the rule making until a consensus is reached, diluting some of the original intent as financial firms jockey for advantage, and making it voluminous in many cases because of the wording designed to achieve consensus and account for objections by various interests. Reform legislators such as Barney Frank openly said they had no interest in learning enough about the financial industry to do the rule making, and may have left an excessive amount of the rule making to regulators in the future. A consumer protection agency was established under the new law and derivatives are required to be traded on exchanges. The Volcker Rule to separate investment banking from deposit taking and a requirement that banks hold onto a portion of mortgage securities marketed are not completed. The S.E.C. has to write the rule on how much money brokerages must set aside for losses on swap trades. Another bubble in financial markets would leave the U.S. and European economies vulnerable to problems similiar to the global financial crisis of 2008, which is why the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European regulatory authorites are requiring large banks to set aside more capital reserves. The S.E.C. under its new chief is also taking a more active role in overseeing the banks for violations of securities laws, including a series of actions taken against JP Morgan Chase bank in 2013. This has a deterrent effect as the huge monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce unemployment also creates bubble conditions in financial markets, according to Fed governor, Jeremy Stein. Former FDIC chief, Sheila Bair, says the lack of leadership in this area is simply astonishing....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Economist points to Mexico's potential and compares it favorably to Brazil and China. Mexico's people are better educated and have higher standards of living than most developing countries including Brazil. Technical education is one of Mexico's strengths and it has good management talent. It suffered badly in the global financial crisis of 2008 because of the recession in the U.S., but it does not have to lower its sights and live with lower growth as the U.S. economy suffers a slowdown. As Chinese wages have risen, Mexico is looking better as a place to invest. And even as Brazil's credit markets getting overheated, there is much room for credit growth in the Mexican economy. Mexico could achieve a growth rate higher by about 2.5 percentage points according to one estimate, if it attracts more foreign investment and opens up the oil industry to foreign investment, implements reform for labor markets and opens up many sectors to competition. It needs to restricts the monopolies granted to businesses such as Telefonos Mexico run by Carlos Slim, as well as other cartels and monopolies to achieve higher economic efficency....

LyrArc Article Gist
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares is an engineer from Portugal who joined Renault as a test track driver in 1981. In 2014 Fiat merged with Chrysler and in 2021 the PSA Group merged with Fiat creating the Stellantis car company with sales in Europe and the US. As CEO of PSA Group Carlos Tavares headed Stellantis. Tavares has skills in persuading unions in Europe to work with him, and motivates his people with his working style. At Chrysler even with losses from 10% absenteeism he has managed to reach operating profit margin of 16.4%. Stellantis plans investments of $35 billion in EV vehicles by 2025 which means it is putting back profits into investing in the future. Stellantis is today larger than GM or Ford. It has 47,000 employees in the US.  Earlier PSA had acquired lossmaker Opel from GM in 2017. Tavares is known for his careful attention to cost, and he has skills in negotiating with the labor unions in Europe for job cuts to stabilize loss makers.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Julie Jargon's interview with Green Mountain Coffee's CEO Larry Blanford. Green Mountain has grown rapidly after it acquired the Keurig brand of single serve coffee makers in 2006. He says K-Cups and single serve coffee is popular because of the broad choice it offers users to have different types of coffee during different times of the day without having to open three or four different bags of coffe that would go stale. On the threat posed by Starbucks single serve coffee machines to be introduced in fall 2012, Blanford says it is basically a espresso single-serve system and does not compete directly with the filtered coffee products from Green Mountain. Espresso is a small part of the U.S. coffee business. He sees growth moderating to 15-20% from the 70% in recent years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar visits Ahmedabad for the introduction of the new Gujarati language edition of his book, The India Way- Strategies for an Uncertain World. At the meeting to take questions on the Gujarati edition at IIM Ahmedabad,  Jaishankar said India is now the fifth largest economy in the world. During the Nehru period it was the 20th largest economy in the world. It now has the capacity to take a leading part in world affairs. In a few years by 2030 India is expected to become the third largest economy in the world. And with its economy integrated into that of the US economy in a way that no other economy has been it will make the US-India economy by far the largest of any economic combination in the world. Because both are English speaking and both are modern democracies, and the traditions of Lincoln and Mohandas Gandhi, of St Paul and the Vedanta with Buddhism deeply rooted in each country. This is the true meaning of the Indo-Pacific. As Jaishankar pointed out in Ahmedabad there is no point in the water that says here is where the Pacific starts- that is the reality. Once you are in the Indian Ocean east of Africa you can travel on the ocean all the way past India to Indonesia, the Japanese Islands and the Hawaiian Islands till you reach the western shores of the United States. For India, the US and Australia, and Japan this is the ocean pathways that they are committed to keep open and with the international rule of law for all nations. In renewable energy, in climate change action, in managing soil and water, in agricultural innovation, and in technologies of all kinds India can now lead the way. Scientific curiosity, learning curve, manufacturing and innovation, education that brings new skills for a large workforce, India can tap into the resources of the world and make its own contributions to this resource for all mankind.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Washington Post's Fred Hiatt interviews Seiji Maehara, Japan's Foreign Minister. Hiatt says Maehara is committed to easing immigration and increasing tourism and student exchanges. A new program of child allowances is designed to reverse population decline. Prime Minister Kan has proposed closing the deficit by raising the consumption tax. What struck Hiatt most from the interview was the emphasis on the US-Japan partnership and shared values of democracy and open trade, and the sense of a shared disillusionment with China.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Justice Department opens an investigation of the largest airlines, Delta, American, United Continental, and Southwest for collusion in limiting expansion. The major 4 airlines control 80% of the domestic airline seats in the U.S. The 3 major airlines have grown slowly compared to Southwest in recent years. JetBlue and Spirit are also growing faster. Southwest plans to expand by 7% in the 4th quarter. U.S. airline domestic seats show slow growth since 2010, with growth picking up in 2015 over the prior year to 3.5% in 2015, according to Innovata. For 2013 and 2014 <0.5% growth in seats, in 2012 decline of <1%, 2011 growth of less than 1%, and slight decline in 2010. During the crisis 2008-2009 airlines cut seat capacity. Price increases have averaged 5% increase from 2007 to 2014 to $391, adjusted for inflation for domestic seats. The U.S. Justice Department investigation will look at "possible unlawful coordination."

LyrArc Article Gist
Ian Talley provides this excellent account of how this drop in oil prices is likely to add to economic growth in major world economies, removing any ambiguity about the positive effect on the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to about $65 from $105 between June and December 2014. The IMF estimates growth in 2015 will increase from 3.1% to 3.5% largely because of the lowering in energy costs. JP Morgan Chase economists see an addition of 0.7% points in global growth in the first half of 2015. ECB president Draghi sees the lower oil prices as an unambiguous positive. Estimates from Rhodium Group show major oil importing countries seeing import bills cut by $500 billion if prices remain low for 6-8 months, with $90 billion going into the U.S. economy. IMF estimate is that only 20% of the drop in oil prices is from lower demand, about 80% from higher fuel efficiency, increased supply using new technologies, decisions by OPEC to lower oil price, increases in supply. Based on estimates by the Rhodium Group, IEA and the IMF, the extra money flowing into the economies of the U.S., Asia and Western Europe from reduced oil import bills, as measured in percentage of GDP is: the U.S. 0.5%, Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. Italy and France and other oil importing countries benefit. The impact comes at a time when Japan, China, India and eurozone economies badly needed a boost after significant slowdown in growth in 2014. It could not have come at a better time and because it is technologically driven as in the case of highly fuel efficient automobiles and new oil exploration technologies, a self sustaining process. The corresponding impact for oil exporters is: Russia -4.7%, Nigeria -5.4%, Venezuela -10.2%....

LyrArc Article Gist
Technology is reshaping the world of oil by 2018. The U.S. Permian Basin stretching from West Texas to New Mexico now produces more oil than the UAE and is likely to soon surpass Iran- production is at 3.1 million barrels a a day. There are as many rigs as in 2011 yet the production has tripled because of the use of high tech rigs that can move quickly to new locations over wide areas and with tech that can see hundreds of feet into the rock. By 2019 the U.S. will surpass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil. The drop in oil prices to about $40 a barrel in recent years is a result of Saudi efforts to block shale oil development by lowering prices. This has not worked. Initially some high cost producers exited the industry and the shale industry suffered. Over time the new technologies spurred by lower oil prices have led to the anticipated drop in cost. Shale oil can now be produced by core producers at $40 a barrel and still be profitable according to this WSJ report. All Middle Eastern countries cannot meet budget needs at $40 a barrel. In 2018 oil prices increased back up to $77 a barrel. In the next wave of declining prices the shale industry is better positioned than the OPEC countries.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Under Mette Frederiksen immigration which reached 21,000 in 2015 was down to a little over 1000 a year. She is a strong fighter for workers and families and labor rights and yet tough on illegal immigration. She has been proven right about this as Britain and the US under Biden are seeing illegal immigration as a threat to workers and labour, are seeing the risks of distraction from illegal immigration doing a serious disservice to workers and families by making it hard to fight for workers and families on wages, cost of living and other issues.  Even with a strong record of fighting for workers and families, Frederiksen was one of the first European leaders to see the dangers of illegal immigration to society. It gave parts of the political spectrum that had no interest all along in workers and families doing well, an issue to run on that would come to cause grave harm to workers and families. This turned out to be the error of Angela Merkel a CDU leader brought up in Communist East Germany, who had no idea of the risks of her approach for open immigration. As Merkel let this chapter unfold it created fissures in Europe, with Tories and Nigel Farage taking Britain out of the EU and laying waste to its economy for 5 years till Labour's Starmer adopted a tough immigration policy and became prime minister in 2024. That danger then spread to the US in 2016 which also suffered as Republicans and Trump did the same in the US around rhetoric but without serious action on immigration till the Lankford- Biden legislation.  That bill would have closed the border with Mexico and ended immigration as an issue forever if passed into law in December 2023, as Senator Lankford says would have happened. Ending immigration as an issue forever alongside foreign wars as an issue, so that a concentrated effort could be made on improving badly damaged lives of workers and families. And on rebuilding badly damaged manufacturing in the US, rebuilding collapsing infrastructure, and competing with better education and healthcare with the large Asian countries China, Japan/ South Korea, India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Lyrarc.com's Movement for Global Literacy and its knowledge site open to all has major relevance for today. That 30% of Americans read zero books is a clear warning sign for Democracy in the idea of "We the People," and the Economy benefitting all, in the US. The use of libraries follows political, income and demographic patterns is shown in a You Gov poll research. There is a gap of 10% between the 30% library use at incomes over $100,000 vs 20% at incomes below $50,000. The gap widens with political inclination to 13% when party preference is considered with 30% Democratic and 17% Republican- not a good state of affairs for the Nation.  In general the top 50% of the population gets to libraries split evenly between frequent and less frequent users. The bottom 50% with rarely using or no use at all. This is the crux of the problem- literacy of all kinds should correlate with the use of libraries and books and digital use.  Digital use happens with iPads and laptops searching Wikipedia and knowledge sites such as Lyrarc.com outside of libraries, and this is part of the picture. What library use gives is not a full picture yet one with these wide variations an indication of how the political life of the Nation should be turned in constructive ways for broad based participation in a knowledge society. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the NYT shows that some of the people who identified themselves as Republican in 2016 may not do so in 2017, as the Trump administration makes policy moves that are unpopular with sections of society that were earlier open to his new ideas. Gallup supports studies at Emory University showing a 4% shift, a 4% decline in identification with the GOP Republican label. After a eight years under a Democratic administration some fatigue set in and this was reflected in the election. Now that Republicans are in power in states and the federal level, they face a critical public spotlight on how their actions match the interests of their constituents. A similar process was seen in Britain, after the seeming support for Brexit in 2016. By 2017 some of that support shifted and some new energy on the side of Labor among young people made a difference in the last election with losses for the ruling Conservatives who supported Brexit. Normally this process takes time. Yet this time because ideas such as Brexit or withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, or the investigation into Russia and the U.S. election, are so drastic in their impact that the pendulum seems to correct itself by swinging to the middle. ...