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Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.

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Baker and Rudoren of the NYT describe how the relationship between Netanyahu and Obama gradually deteriorated over a number of years.

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Israeli prime minister Netanyahu retracts his statement about rejecting a two state solution in an interview with Andrea Mitchell of NBC News. He says he meant that it was not possible under the current conditions with terrorism in the Middle East, Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon, and the Palestinian Authority having an alliance with the militant Hamas movement. In 2009 Netanyahu said he supported a two state solution in a speech at Bar-Ilan University, and the statement before the election was meant to bring out larger number of right wing votes. He also clarified his comments about Israeli Arabs "voting in droves," as meant to bring out large numbers of his own voters to vote, saying Israeli Arabs voting was "sacrosanct." The White House response was to say that it was free to support a two state solution at the United Nations, and U.S. president Obama discussed the comments on Israeli Arabs- seen widely as racist baiting- with Netanyahu in a phone conversation. The rift between the two leaders is now seen as irreparable and bigger than ever....

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U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased by about 20% in 2012, increasing dependence on the volatile Middle East region.

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Mitt Romney on the weaknesses of America's position in the Middle East in policies for Syria, Libya, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world. The problems with Iran and the lack of results in bringing an end to Iran's nuclear program.

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Ahmari points out that with Iran's right to enrich uranium accepted by the Obama administration the goals of the Iranian government have been achieved.

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The shift away from Iranian oil with U.S. pressure and sanctions, and higher oil prices, could pose challenges for the Indian macroeconomic outlook in 2020.

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As expected Iran boycotts the talks in Doha of 16 major oil producers seeking to stabilize oil prices. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela sought to stabilize oil production at January levels to support oil prices. Wth the Saudia and Russia producing all out, Iran seeks to do the same, effectively closing the door on any agreement to freeze production levels.

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The OPEC meeting in Qatar in April 2016 to stabilize oil prices with a freeze in production is not likely to affect supply and demand. Saudis and Russia are producing all out, and Iran plans to increase its production, making it difficult to reach an agreement. The International Energy Agency, IEA, predicts demand will rise by the end of 2016 from 94.8 million barrels a day to 95.9 million barrels a day. Production is at 96.4 million barrels a day, and this is expected to lead to narrowing the gap between supply and demand. Experts say cars are becoming more fuel effficient, and electric car technology is becoming commercially viable, leading to a lack of growth in demand in developed and middle income countries. This may have to be factored in for the intermediate and long run for demand growth.

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Experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program describe what to look for and in what time frame in the 2012 negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and other European countries in Istanbul, Turkey over Iran's nuclear program.

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Strong criticism from Attorney General Luisa Ortega, and dissension inside the government, led to the Supreme Court retracting parts of its decision to nullify the powers of the legislature. Ortega called the move "a rupture of the constitutional order." Most of the judges are appointed on the court by the Maduro government. Strong criticism by the OAS calling it a "self inflicted coup", by other governments in Latin America, also led to retracting parts of the decision by the Supreme Court. Nicholas Maduro succeeded Mr. Chavez who was the democratically elected president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. Maduro narrowly won the election in 2013 by a margin of about 1.5% over Henrique Capriles. In 2015 in National Assembly elections the opposition parties won a majority in the National Assembly. Protests against the Maduro government were followed by a recall attempt in 2016 which was suppressed. Inflation and economic conditions in Venezuela worsened under Maduro with the collapse of oil prices. The devaluation of the currency, high inflation and shortages of basic goods have led to widespread protests. As the situation worsened the Supreme Court in support of the government gradually chipped away at the powers of the National Assembly since 2016, leading to the situation in April 2016 with  the effort to strip the Assembly of all powers and remove the immunity from prosecution of legislators. Maduro is a former bus driver for the city of Caracas bus system, and a trade unionist. He was part of the movement supporting Chavez release after a coup attempt, foreign minister 2006-2013, and appointed Chavez successor in 2012.  Max Fisher and Amanda Taub of the NYT go on to discuss the writings of political scientists, including Dutch expert Cas Mudde, who pointed out that populism often starts its climb because established institutions and elites have become unresponsive to pubic needs. Yet the replacement is with what starts out as an effort to bring fairness- yet ends up creating another elite, suppressing opposition, and creating a new set of problems, even threatening the institutional framework of democracy such as elected assembly as happened last week in Venezuela.  In Venezuela the Chavez populist movement was initially intended to reduce corruption in the court system, the established parties control over media, and ensure oil revenues were used to provide services to poor regions and neighborhoods.  In the process over two decades it introduced a system that set up a Bolivarist class of its own based on socialist goals, failed to integrate the economy into the global economy for modernization, and created an overdependence on oil revenues that hurt the country when prices dropped sharply. High inflation, corruption, shortages of basic goods, and an economy slipping behind neighboring countries in Latin America, are the result by 2017. Seeing the situation in Venezuela in the context of current populist trends in the U.S. and Europe may be a stretch because the situation in Venezuela is unique to Latin America in some ways and is from an earlier period. High inflation, collapsing economy, debt problems and mismanagement of the economy, devaluation of currency, are problems faced by Brazil, Argentina, and other countries in Latin America, happening under conservative as well as populist governments since the 1960's. It is different in two respects, the disconnect with the global economy that prevents modernization, and the trend towards authoritarianism, as seen in Venezuela.     ...

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Forecasts show global oil output exceeding demand by 630,000 barrels a day for the fourth quarter of 2012. This is partly the result of extra oil supplies coming in from Saudi Arabia to counter the situation with Iran at the same time as oil demand is slowing with the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China. Prices of crude declined to $85.73 a barrel on the Nymex, and $107.85 for Brent crude on the ICE Futures Exchange on Oct. 24, 2012. Goldman Sachs cut the 2013 price forecast for Brent crude to $110 a barrel from $130. Earlier the QE III monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve had rallied oil prices because of a weakening of the dollar.

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The OPEC meeting in Doha in April 2016 fails to lead to an agreement to freeze oil production at Jan. 2016 levels, with Iran staying away from the meeting.

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The cost of social stability in OPEC countries is changing the attitude of countries that advised moderation in pricing in the past. Saudi Arabia has committed itself to $129 billon in new spending for public sector jobs, pay increases for state employees, and allowances for the unemployed, to preserve social stability after the democracy protests in the Middle East. This is happening throughout the Arab world and in most OPEC countries. Algeria and Iran have also increased social spending. The oil price that Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget and pay for this is going up from $68 a barrel in 2010, to $88 in 2011, and $110 in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance. Merrill Lynch says it is $95 a barrel for this in 2011. This is bringing the moderates like the Saudis and the hawks like Iran and Venezeula together on price issues. In the second week of April 2011, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi, said the Saudis had cut production by 800,000 barrels a day in March because of oversupply in the market. A consultant for Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation which reflects Saudi and OPEC views, says: "OPEC members spending pattern is expected to bear on their oil price preferences and production policy behaviour." The only restraint on price will be that price at some point will affect the global economic recovery and lead to lower consumption and growth, something the Saudis have paid attention to in the past....

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Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post cites the Pew poll of September 3-7, 2015, on the Iran nuclear deal of July 2015, showing increase in skepticism about the deal's provisions by people who are informed to some extent (a little or a lot) about its details- 57% opposing to 27% supporting. The strongly partisan opinion on the issue, and the lobbying on both sides, including bringing Iraq WMD into the picture as noted by Dana Milbank in another column in the Washington Post, overstates each case. This draws attention away from the actual provisions. About 30% have no opinion it appears because the issue of this magnitude involving nuclear weapons proliferation has become politicized when it should be examined only on its merits, where public opinion would be shaped by the details of the deal itself, not who has negotiated it. The Pew Research Center poll shows 21% support the agreement negotiated with Iran, 49% disapprove, 30% offer no opinion. This compares with a poll taken 6 weeks before in July 2015 showing 33% supporting it and 45% opposing it. ...