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Similiarities with Japan are in the exploding monetary base growth by the Fed, just as bank lending is dropping. And as in post bubble Japan of the 1990's, all of the behaviour says Wood invites legitimate comparisons with Japan. The government has lent, spent or guaranteed about $11 trillion to the financial sector broadly defined, because of letting financial institutions remain "too big to fail," whether Fannie Mae, AIG or Citigroup. None of them have been broken up. And this is similiar to the lack of bank cleanup in Japan with regulatory forbearance for years after the bubble. He thinks there is evidence that America is already in a Japanese style "liquidity trap."

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How information generated by Tesco's Clubcards can be used through rigorous information collection, analysis of mounds of data by computers based on a clear structure for the information and what they are looking for. And how the information insights can be used to quickly take action in what to stock and who to target with what is stocked through direct mail and coupons. Tesco uses information about what interests customers, who they are, for example: child care providing fathers who might want the beer as well as the baby stuff, South Asians in immigrant heavy communities in the U.K. tracking what they buy, and don't buy and where. 1. This information driven strategy of Tesco has been copied by other retailers. P&G, Coca Cola, Kimberly Clark and other consumer product companies buy analyses based on Tesco data. 2. This strategy has helped Tesco battle Walmart overseas. Walmart failed in the S. Korean market after 8 years selling its 16 outlets to a local competitor, while Tesco has 39 stores in S. Korea that are doing well. Tesco is also doing well in Central Europe where Walmart intends to open stores. In the UK which accounts for 45% of Walmart's international sales and 10% of its overall sales, Walmart's share of the British market is 16% for groceries compared to 31% for Tesco. Walmart entered the British market in 1999 through the acquisition of the Asda chain of stores. Tesco is growing and doing much better than Walmart in the UK. 3. Tesco's Clubcard based information driven strategy- 3-1. Uses a outside provider that is excellent in its field, can pioneer techniques that will work with Tesco strategy, and has the energy and dedication. Tesco uses Dunnhumby, a husband-wife consultancy that also works with Kroger in the US running its loyalty card program and analyzing customer data. The research firm is now majority owned by Tesco. 3-2 How it works. Each week Dunnhumby receives data on 15 million shopping baskets. Each product is scored on 50 dimensions such as price and the size of the package. The computer looks for customers whose shopping baskets have similiar combinations of scores. Dunnhumby has made 6 segments for Tesco. Finer Foods segment is made up of affluent time strapped customers who go upscale and Traditional segment comprises homemakers who buy ingredients to cook meals from scratch. 3-3 The clubcard works as follows. Introduced in 1995 by Mr Leahy, now CEO, the application asks for information about dietary preferences, size of household, ages of children . The plastic a card in the mail gives customers a point for every pound they spend after they reach $280. Each point is a penny off future purchases and it also can be converted into miles in frequentflier programs In addition large spenders get discount coupons every 3 months on particular products keyed to their buying profile in the database. Quarterly coupon package from Tesco would include 3 coupons for stuff they regularly buy and 3 for stuff Tesco would like them to try. While only 1-2% of coupons ever get redeemed about 15-20% of Tesco coupons get redeemed. The package also includes vouchers through which members can redeem points. $300 of purchases would generate a voucher for $3.00 off any purchase. Karen Masek, an actor and mother of two in London, says Tesco's mailings reflect her preference for fresh produce, environment-friendly cleaning products and organic meat. She says Tesco knows her buying habits and never sends anything that is way off the mark. 3-4 The way Tesco battled successfully with Walmart: Tesco searched its database and identified shoppers who buy the cheapest items available. About 300 items were identified for price conscious customers. Tesco lowered prices on these items such as Tesco Value Brand margarine so that these buyers would not defect to Walmart. 3-5 Examples of how the computer data is used. 1n 2001 Kimberly Clark introduced a premium version of its Andrex toilet paper in the UK infused with aloe vera. Through the Clubcard research data one could track who was buying this toilet paper and how consistently, and later tracked what other products these buyers were buying so that they could be targeted with incentives. It was found that they bought skincare products so Kimberly Clark sent direct mail to 500,000 customers offering free beauty treatments for purchasing the toilet paper twice....

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U.S. GDP growth is 1.5% for the second quarter after 2% growth in the first quarter. The slower growth shows that much of the productive capacity of the U.S. economy is not being utilized. See the graph showing the growth during the recovery after the recession of 2009 compared to the recessions in 2001, 1991, 1980, 1975, 1970. The curve is much flatter this time. Every recovery except the recovery in 1980 shows a faster rebound. Economic recoveries have taken longer over time since the postwar boom period.

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As a group Hispanics are reported to be hit hardest by this recession, harder than African Americans. In a Feb 9, Washington Post poll, both African Americans and Hispanics were optimistic about the future for the next generation, even with the dismal economic prospects, because things have improved greatly for this generation of black people and Hispanics compared to their parent's generation. And this progress is projected into the future. As a group the most pessimism was shown by white people. Whites say the Obama administration is doing very little for their families, and not doing enough for the middle class and working class Americans and small businesses. They were much more critical about the the administration's cozy relationship and doing "too much" for Wall Street financial institutions. By a 2 to 1 margin whites saw the Obama administration's economic program as harming the national economy.

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The June 2012 referendum in Ireland on the EU Fiscal Treaty.

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The basic architecture to support the euro currency is being proposed in a seven page report prepared by presidents of the EU Council, the ECB, the EC and the Eurogroup. This includes deposit insurance to protect against a run on banks, a European bank supervisor with possibly the ECB in that role, and the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund, acting as a backup if deposit and resolution funds need support. Currently the European Banking Authority setup after the 2008 crisis works with central banks of the individual countries to regulate the banks. In contrast to sanctions imposed for overspending under prior EU agreements the report says new powers would be transferred to a European Authority on the fiscal side so that overspending can be controlled at the European level and budget deficits are set at the European level.

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European Union leaders including European Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, ECB president Mario Draghi, and Eurogroup finance ministers head, Jean-Claude Juncker, draw up a 10 year road map for "a genuine economic and monetary union." The prime ministers of Italy, France and Spain push jointly for deposit insurance to cover European bank deposits, Europe wide banking supervision, and bailout funds to directly purchase sovereign debt of Italy and Spain without conditions. This takes place June 22-27, 2012, with the EU leaders increasing pressure on Germany for the first time in concerted fashion. Ms. Merkel and her coalition partners the Free Democrats see this as an effort at mutualizing debt. Merkel says Europe will not have total sharing of debt "as long as I live," in her talks with Free Democrats.

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The agreement reached Dec. 12, 2012 to setup a single supervisory authority for large banks in the eurozone is a major and historic step. The ECB takes up this role after parliaments in the eurozone countries ratify the agreement by March 2013.

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Transcripts from U.S. Federal Reserve meetings in 2006 that show Bernanke, as Fed chairman, and Geithner, as head of the New York Fed, ignored the risks of a collapsing bubble in housing and mortgages.

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David Brooks of the NYT describes the approach taken by British prime minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party government to help the working class poor in Britain, and tackle the social roots of poverty. He says an American adaptation similar to this is badly needed in the Republican Party, with the candidates in the election providing solutions from an old rulebook. Only after Trump's popularity with appeals to less educated older Americans has the Republican leadership responded, with Speaker Ryan helping organize a forum on poverty under the Jack Kemp Foundation- emphasis was placed on education, work, opportunity and accountability for anti-poverty programs in the discussion moderated by Ryan and Senator Tim Scott. Less attention was paid to the other social aspects mentioned here by Brooks, and cited by Cameron when he described the inadequacy of traditional solutions from the right and left of the political spectrum. Cameron outlined the principles of his anti-poverty plans called "Life Chances Strategy," in a speech on Jan. 11, 2016, in north London, with the entrie transcript on the gov.uk website. Cameron acknowledged in the speech that social issues including single parent families, and other social problems such as long term unemployment, can make it harder for some people to use self-reliance and personal responsibility in a growing economy as a way to grasp opportunities. Cameron proposes a combination of economic, social and job growth strategies. His second term plans include 30 hours a week of free childcare for 3 and 4 year olds so both parents can work, parental maternity leave, expansion of Troubled Families Program, in addition to the introduction of National Living Wage, tax cuts, universal credit. In tackling social aspects of the problem Cameron cited the need for development in the early years of childhood, the huge importance of family, social connections and experiences, informal mentors, cultural experiences, broadenend horizons, that enable young people to acquire language skills, character and resilience. Second term projects include expanding reach of high performing schools to deprived areas, emphasis on core English, math, science, history, geography Ebacc skills, a 1 billion pound investment in the National Citizens Service by 2021, a plan to transform housing estates including rebuilding from scratch, additional 1 billion pounds to provide mental health treatment including treatment within 2 weeks in homes and communities. Throughout Cameron's "Life Chances strategy" is aimed at tackling not just the material dimensions of poverty, but also what he describes is broken in Britain- "the paucity of opportunity."...

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An independent parliamentary panel in Japan described the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster as a "profoundly man-made disaster." It was sharply critical of TEPCO, the company running the plant, and the Japanese government's response. The investigation chairman Kiyoshi Kurokawa said in the report: "What must be admitted- very painfully- is that this was a disaster 'Made in Japan,' its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to 'sticking with the program'; our groupism; and our insularity." This comes as a report by TEPCO shifted public attention to "a tsunami beyond our imagination," creating a large credibility gap with the Japanese people, because the public is skeptical about TEPCO's attention to safety during the period leading to the accident. The parliamentary report calls attention to safety factors that were ignored so that companies would be required to take further steps including costly modifications of plant equipment. A critical flaw was the lack of a independent safety agency that could enforce safety measures that TEPCO might be reluctant to make because of cost considerations. Astonishing as this may sound, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) in Japan is part of the same government ministry that promotes nuclear power, creating a sort of "nuclear bloc," which before the accident connected the safety agency to the bloc. Because of this the panel report says, NISA did not require TEPCO to prepare for a full station blackout- the loss of main and backup power- because the "probability was small." Other factors that need to be addressed are the breakdown in communication and cooperation between the people operating the plant and the people responsible for Japan's nuclear safety. The prime minister's office waited too long before declaring a state of emergency. To come up with the conclusions the panel made 1000 intervews and conducted 900 hours of hearings. The questions left behind by the nuclear accident in Japan are whether Japan should continue with the same level of dependence on nuclear power, whether it should shift out of nuclear power on a gradual basis as Germany is doing ironically after the Fukushima accident while Japan is reactivating its nuclear plants to meet energy needs. If Japan continues with a smaller reliance on nuclear power what changes have to take place for an effective safety agency completely outside the "nuclear bloc," and the series of other changes that have to take place in the nuclear power industry's handling of safety. Public opposition continues to focus on this because of distrust of the nuclear power industry after the accident....

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VW's sales in the U.S. doubled between 2009 and 2012, and VW set aggressive goals for the U.S. market to reach 800,000 by 2018. The goal was a stretch goal because this was double the level of 438,000 vehicles in 2012. This was part of its Mach 18 plan to pass GM and Toyota in global sales by 2018. Now this goal appears less achievable, because of new models from Honda and Ford which surpass VW's Jetta and Passat in technology, features and fuel efficiency. The U.S. market sales have increased by 9.6% in 2013, VW's sales declined by 1.3% so far through August in 2013, at 282, 913 vehicles. Ramping up production at the new Chattanooga plant will have to be put off and 500 contract workers have been given leave from the assembly line. By contrast Toyota sales for the 8 month period 2013 increased by 7% and 8.6%. In August Toyota's were up 23%, Honda's 27%, and VW down 1.6%. VW executives have said the company needs sales of 400,000 to make the U.S. manufacturing operations profitable. VW made a strategic decision to cut costs and bring the Passat price more in line with competition from similiar cars from Japanese carmakers. But this was done not relying solely on productivity and other improvements, but used cost cutting using cheaper materials. VW even went one step further by taking away the European suspension which delivered a more precise ride, and installed a lower cost suspension on the Jetta and Passat. Customers have noticed with some buying older models with the European suspension. Honda and Toyota moved in the other direction in the last 2 years coming out with more advanced features on the Accord and Camry. Ford did this with the Fusion. The new Accord has a backup camera, iPod connection, power seats and alloy wheels as standard. As a result Passat sales were up only 3% through Aug 2013, and Accord sales increased by 17%, Ford Fusion sales up 13%. VW's response is to ramp up discounts. It is also coming up with a new engine, Jetta compact with a sportier ride will be introduced, and a redesigned Golf hatchback for 2014. The slowdown in sales at VW shows how competitive the car market has become with Korean, German, Japanese and American carmakers quick to make inroads in turn with weak points of the competition. Strategic missteps can be costly for any manufacturer and the customer can never be taken for granted....

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Why polluting industries and colluding local government officials who are judged on the rate of economic growth achieved have come together and become entrenched to thepoint where its hard for the central government to implement pollution control measures. Deng's response to a sluggish socialist bureaucracy was to give power to local government officals to promote growth and to be judged on that basis. The environmental ministry and the environmental protection departments are very small and lack the resources to control these industries. And NGO's and the informed public and citizens are powerless to demand change as they are seen by the government as risking social stability by risking growth. After the East Asian crisis China anticipating a slowing down in competition with recovering Asian economies pushed harder for more economic growth. As a result production of steel set new records and the addition of power generating capacity each year surpassed the total power generation of countries like Britain and France.But this power generation does not use the modern technology available as it is costlier and takes longer to build. So a lot of short run decisions are being made in the interests of growth. An effort to introduce Green GDP backed by President Hu Jintao was dropped after it ran into a lot of resistance. Using this about 3 points of GDP were deducted from the 10% growth as environmental cost. This was based on modest environmental costs estimates and did not take into account the entire cost of pollution to health and the environment. China's own environmental experts think that Western estimates of environmental costs are if anything on the conservative side as they are based on models used in the west and conditions in China have little precedent in the scale and range of environmental degradation. Coal is burned to produce two thirds of the energy and uses older technology for power generation, it is a big polluter of the environment. And the modest energy efficiency goals set by the central government are not being met as a result China is already expected to be consuming as much energy in 2010 as it was expected by its own planners to be consuming in 2020. To informed outsiders it appears that the polutting process is systemic in its nature and only political change that allows people who are suffering the worst effects of this pollution to make their voice heard, can lead to reversing the trends that have been set in place from the Deng period of economic change that started in the 80's. ...

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Germany's deputy finance minister, Jorg Asmussen, was nominated by the German government to the executive board of the ECB. This follows the resignation of Jurgen Stark. Asmussen was originally appointed by the previous finance minister, Peer Steinbruck, and is from the SPD party. He was retained by Finance Minister Schaeuble because he had experience with the global financial crisis of 2008. Both Asmussen and the new Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann, are students of Axel Weber, who was a professor before becoming central banker.

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American manufacturers are importing more of the parts that go into each product. According to Susan Houseman, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute in Kalamazoo, Michigan, the imported portion for these parts is up to 25% from 17%. Even the Bureau of Economic Analysis figure of the share of GDP coming from manufacturing is overstated, says Houseman. That figure was 11.2% for 2009, but is closer to 10.5% if all the imported components are included instead of being counted as domestically made. This is down from 14.2% ten years ago, and about 30% in the 1950's. There is deep concern that the manufacturing decline has weakened America. Houseman says that one cannot separate manufacturing from innovation, and she asks if America can continue to be strong in R&D with a shrunken manufacturing base. James Jordan of the Interstate Maglev project, says Maglev- which uses special magnets to levitate and propel high-speed trains- was invented in the United States. Today equipment for that technology is manufactured and used in Japan, and innovation in high speed trains is taking place in Japan and Germany. The decline in manufacturing is shockingly large. From 1979 employment in manufacturing went down by 8.1 million to 11.6 million, with the largest drop occurring in the last ten years. With it America is losing something significant- all the knowhow and skills that go into making things. Today the airplane wings for several Boeing airliners are made in Japan and shipped here. In a not too distant past these wings would have been built here, and workers with the knowhow and skills for these critical components were part of Boeing's workforce....

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Higher oil production in Saudi Arabia in 2012 as the Saudis support U.S. sanctions against Iran.

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The cost of social stability in OPEC countries is changing the attitude of countries that advised moderation in pricing in the past. Saudi Arabia has committed itself to $129 billon in new spending for public sector jobs, pay increases for state employees, and allowances for the unemployed, to preserve social stability after the democracy protests in the Middle East. This is happening throughout the Arab world and in most OPEC countries. Algeria and Iran have also increased social spending. The oil price that Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget and pay for this is going up from $68 a barrel in 2010, to $88 in 2011, and $110 in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance. Merrill Lynch says it is $95 a barrel for this in 2011. This is bringing the moderates like the Saudis and the hawks like Iran and Venezeula together on price issues. In the second week of April 2011, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi, said the Saudis had cut production by 800,000 barrels a day in March because of oversupply in the market. A consultant for Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation which reflects Saudi and OPEC views, says: "OPEC members spending pattern is expected to bear on their oil price preferences and production policy behaviour." The only restraint on price will be that price at some point will affect the global economic recovery and lead to lower consumption and growth, something the Saudis have paid attention to in the past....