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A mid-July 2011 CBS poll on where Tea party supporters stand on raising the debt ceiling and on a balanced deficit reduction approach combining tax increases and spending cuts. This poll shows 66% of Tea Party supporters saying Republicans in Congress should compromise on their positions to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Only 31% said they should stick to their positions even if this meant not reaching an agreement. On a balanced approach 53% said it should be the path taken including tax increases and spending cuts for a solution to deficits, and 45% said only spending cuts was the right way. This shows a more flexible Tea Party than is presented in the media reports and strident statements of politicians.

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Florida's House of Representatives passed a bill in March that reduces the number of weeks of unemployment benefits from the standard 26 weeks to 20 weeks. A similar law was passed in Michigan recently. Both states have unemployment rates exceeding 10%.

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Russia faces inflation of 7%, and the central bank policy is to fight inflation by increasing interest rates to 7% in March 2014. The crisis in Ukraine and Russian intervention in the Crimea has worsened the prospects for the economy at a delicate time after Russia's growth rate was slowing rapidly in 2013. Capital flight in 2013 accelerated in the 1st quarter with the Ukraine crisis- with about $60 billion in capital outflows in the 1st quarter 2014. Speaking at an investor conference in Moscow, the former finance minister Alexei Kudrin, who strengthened Russia's finances in Putin's previous term continued to warn about taking risks with the economy and Russia's finances. He had earlier warned about higher defense spending. He now says the sharp economic slowdown expected with a possible contraction of 1.8% in 2014, is the price Russia is paying for an independent foreign policy. The policy is popular in Russia now with Putin's rating at about 80% in April 2014, but Kudrin says this does not reflect the situation if the contraction leads to falling real incomes. As investment spending stalled in the 1st quarter, only consumer spending supports growth for the remainder of the year. Russia's Economics Ministry favors stimulus to support growth, but the central bank is concerned about keeping inflation of 7% in check, and the Finance Ministry favors current policy of building up the rainy day fund from higher oil prices. As a result no stimulus is planned even as the economy slips into a risky contraction phase. For emerging markets in 2014 political problems have exacerbated slowing growth first in Turkey in 2013, and now in Russia in 2014, with the reverse taking place in India and Indonesia where elections and a change in government lead to more optimism....

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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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The joint statement after the G-8 summit stated that "our imperative is to promote growth and jobs." It stated the budget deficits need to be addressed but said "spending cuts must "take into account countries' evolving economic conditions and underpin confidence and economy recovery." Germany's Merkel in her remarks said growth and deficit reduction supported each other, that "we have to work on both paths, and the participants have made clear, and I think this is great progress." Opposition Social Democrats in Germany say Ms. Merkel is adept at changing as the situation changes, and it appears Merkel is making the transition away from strict austerity policies she had championed earlier. Especially now with fresh elections in France, Netherlands and Greece, and the election of Francois Hollande on a pro-growth platform, the German position of strict austerity is being increasingly questioned on all sides. French president Hollande met U.S. president Obama at a pre-arranged meeting prior to the summit. Obama and Hollande see the need to reduce high unemployment in the U.S. and Europe by encouraging growth, creating a common interest....

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CNN reporter Cassie Spodak provides this exceptional report into the minds of New Hampshire Democratic voters who gave Bernie Sanders a 22 percent lead in the New Hampshire Democratic primary over Hillary Clinton. In October 2016 Hillary Clinton has the support of Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. She described it as "100 percent support" in television debate. Sanders has appeared with Clinton twice, and campaigned 4 times in New Hampshire, and continually across the country. Younger New Hampshire voters still long for Sanders as their favored candidate. Older voters and some who have been motivated by Sanders to run for local office see the shaping of the Democratic Party platform as a victory for Sanders. Key planks of Sanders, taxes on the wealthy and higher incomes to pay for student tuition, infrastructure, and helping working class families, are now key parts of the Democratic platform. These voters see this as a pragmatic step and are enthusiastic in their support for Hillary Clinton. Overall Clinton now has 87 percent of Democratic voter support in New Hampshire according to a WMUR/UNH poll in mid October 2016, and she is doing well with millenials and independents nationally, a critical bloc of voters for Clinton to show nationwide support. One member of the steering committee for Sanders in New Hampshire named Dudley Dudley, reflects the opinion that has shifted the party to emerge united during and even more so in the final months of the presidential campaign of 2016- she tells the CNN reporter Spodak that she supports Hillary because "of the way she has grown, and stretched," and the way Clinton and Sanders are now campaigning together and working together. Both Clinton and Sanders deserve credit for their extraordinary ability to grow during their campaigns and during the party's way to shape the way forward. ...

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Joe Nocera describes his personal situation which also reflects the situation of the average investor in his 401(K) for retirement - inexperience in handling the boom-bust cycles in the market and loss of savings, especially in the last two decades with sharp swings in the market. The Employee Benefit Research Institute statistics on savings of the average American are striking, dismal is the right word- only 22% of workers 55 or older have more than $250,000 set aside for retirement, and 60% have less than $100,000 in a retirement account. The average savings of an American near retirement are $100,000.

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BBC reporter Anrew Hosken reports on the origins of Islamic State (ISIS).

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After intense efforts German Chancellor Merkel was able to pass legislation expanding the EU bailout fund with the support of members of her coalition in Parliament. The opposition Social Democrats and Greens supported the legislation. Merkel carried the vote with a 4 vote margin from her CDU-FDP coalition. Fifteen members of her coalition voted against the legislation. This increases the bailout fund's lending capacity from around 250 billion euros to 440 billion euros. There is considerable skepticism among members of the German parliament about whether this will work. German guarantees for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) increase to 211 billion euros from 123 billion euros under the new legislation. German finance minister Schauble ruled out borrowing by the EFSF from the ECB and leveraging EFSF funds in the process. The fear for German policymakers is that this would lead to Germany losing its triple-A credit rating and create its own risks. Experts have cautioned against the use of leveraging because of the financial risks....

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Questions about the true cost of the Obama health care legislation and the assumption that the legislation cuts the deficit by billions of dollars. This WSJ editorial says one has to look at this closely, and not merely look at CBO projections, which may be based in a certain context and not reflect the true costs, especially because many accounting gimmicks and use of numbers to present a particular picture is taking place. The information this editorial cites is that: it uses 10 years of taxes to fund six years of subsidies, Social Security and Medicare revenues are double-counted to the tune of $398 billion, a new program funding long-tem care frontloads taxes but backloads spending, and the assumption of an automatic 25% cut to physician payments that Congress is unwilling to authorize. Rep. Rand Paul has tried to present an alternative view which needs to be studied just as closely, because of the enormous impact of a jump in spending at a time when the public finances are fragile. WSJ also cites the work of Richard Foster, the chief Medicare actuary, as an alternate perspective of how things could turn out, Doug Holtz-Eakin, and Eugene Steuerle. It calls for common sense in evaluating programs, entitlements, defense or other government spending. They not only cost money, but costs escalate over time as history has shown over decades, till they eventually are discovered to be not affordable unless the middle class is willing to dig deeper into its finances to pay for them. Alternate perspectives from a range of informed opinion, Howard Dean, Martin Feldstein, and the head of Harvard's Medical School show that the issue needs to be looked at closely and carefully and cannot be something in which CBO numbers can be trusted to tell the whole story. Especially when common sense, history, and informed opinion across a spectrum of thought advises caution, and fragile public finances also suggest caution. Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont, says the health care bill is not real reform, and may do more harm than good. He says in a Washington Post article, December 17, 2009, the Obama health care bill does not insert competition into insurance markets, does not significantly reduce costs, and does not improve the delivery and use of health services. It was he says done with a political calculus and crafted for votes not real reform. Jeffrey S. Flier, Dean of the Harvard Medical School, gave the Obama health reform bill an "F" grade, saying in a Nov 18, 2009, WSJ article, that it was disingenuous to call this reform, Congress and the White House were simply deceiving the public. He said the bill will accelerate US health care spending, postpone most of the major health care problems, expecially the ones that drive cost, including the "fee for service" system and delivery of health care. He says in his discussions with economists and other health care leaders the opinion was unanimous that the bill will accelerate health care spending. He cites Massachusetts as an example, where access to care was expanded under the same dysfunctional system, and spending went up, and it doesn't work. Feldstein, who in early 2008 suggested proactive solutions to the mortgage debt crisis which were never adopted, says that the Obama health care law means higher taxes in the long run to pay for the $1 trillion cost of health care for the uninsured group over 10 years. Feldstein says that the Obama plan is to cut Medicare to cut spending, and will reduce the amount of medical services, as reduced spending comes from fewer services, not reducing payments to providers. And he asks if the cost reductions are weighted too heavily towards reduced services and not reduced payments to providers ,would this result in large cuts to services to affect the quality of healthcare for the 85% of the American people who are accustomed to a different pattern of healthcare. ...

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Citigroup trades March 5, 2009, at intraday price of 97 cents. Its now in the penny stock region.

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What is the educational system Toyota is relying on as it faces a huge problem stemming from its high growth rate of new employees overseas who have little knowledge of the Toyota Way and the Toyota Production System. Another part of the same problemis that as it ages many of the last generation of Toyota executives who were there from the inception of Toyota's early days in the USA and the early days of the extraordinary growth in the 80's and 90's will now be retiring or in their seventies and eighties. All this is happening as the American Big Three and the German manufacturers are getting new blood and going through a process of renewal, and the Americans especially are seeing themselves as the underdogs coming from behind. So Toyota's concerns can be seen in a new light, any complacency on its part is going to be costly in the long run. Toyota is using the Toyoa Institute in rural Mikkabi, Japan for training its senior executives like Randy Pflughaupt, chief of US marketing for the Toyota brand. Watanabe, presidetn, Fujio Cho chairman, and Akio Toyoda of the Toyota family personally teach there and share their personal experiences. Toyota asks executives there to come up with a problem Toyota faces and come up with a proposed solution all on one 11 by 17 sheet of paper. Hands on on the ground on site fact finding and exploration are stressed. A management school Globis in Japan instructs Toyota's middle management inthe Toyota philosophy including quality control philosophy methods such as asking the 5 Why's, why a problem is ocurring until one reaches 5 or 6 levels of answers. Global centers in USA Europe and Asia have been opened by Toyota to train roving experts who can help increase the numbers of roving experts from todays 2000 mostly at this time from Japan. These roving experts teach older employees as well as coach younger ones. Then there are the Toyota Technical Training Institutes. The one in Bangalore for example offers an intensive program for new hires to teach Toyota's basic principles. The one in Bangalore has 21 teachers. And appicants selection is tight in India just 64 out of 5000. Before working on the assembly line the applicants will spend 2 years in classes in technical training, including discipline and personal grooming. Its interesting that the applicant mentioned here was from a village where his family and friends were especially proud of his Toyota uniform and training. The idea may be to avoid the problems of trade unionism, worker feeling of entitlement and worker rights which has led to the problems in the US and in India of workers not willing to learn new things being open to new ideas. One way would be to avoid entirely areas where there has been trade union influence, history and activity such as rural Kentucky or rural Karnataka. The student Harish Hanumantayappa is 17 years old and sees this as an opportunity that was not even in his imagination, which makes for a highly enthusiastic trainee, just the kind Toyota may be looking for away from India's trade union and worker indiscipline environments in some states and regions. Reflecting on this one can note that its natural for Toyota to respond in this fashion and it may extend the period in which the Toyota Production System and the Toyota Way functions effectively. But companies like HP also had what they called the HP Way but eventually this suffered a decline as new managers and leadership came into the picture. Only now is HP recovering and getting back its step under a manager who spent his training years at NCR not a training ground for managers, but may have been chosen for his good management instincts and performance and personal characteristics. Also many of the tenets such as asking 5 Why's and the Toyota Production System except for the Just In Time Innovation are basic quality control philsophy that is practiced all over Japanese industry and is practiced worldwide and originated in quality control philosophy in the United States in the 1920's and 1930's before declining and then coming back in the 1980's with Deming and Juran two American quality control advocates. So there is a pattern of decline as new managers forget old ideas and its not clear if Toyota can overcome this tendency completely, except to sustain the memory of what Toyota is and how they got here for as long as possible for a new generation of managers. And the risks to Toyota may also come from another direction to which Toyota may not pay as much attention which is the innovation that Americans are known for, and the innovative thinking mode is a bit different from the rigorous training of the total quality mode. ction ...

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Shipping and freight statistics show an increase of shipments from Mexico. Trains and truck shipments from Mexico to the U.S. increased by 8.7% by weight in the first 11 months of 2011 compared to the prior year. By comparison shipping containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach went down by 0.2% in 2011. Mexico stands to benefit from the shift in dynamics as manufacturing costs in China increase with labor constraints, higher wages, higher commercial land prices and recent Asian supply chain issues making firms wary of unanticipated problems. This is expected to benefit the U.S. with the return of some manufacturig jobs and a serious rethink of outsourcing. Because of highly automated factories and advanced technologies the manufacturing process requires fewer and more skilled operators, reducing the labor component of costs. Carlisle Companies CEO, David Roberts says he is expanding tire manufacturing plants in Tennessee. He says he can make tires as cheaply or cheaper in the U.S than in China. This has serious implications as the U.S. gets down to rebuilding and renewal of its manufacturing industry....

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Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco, says at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Jan. 26, 2016- "If prices continue to be low, we will be able to withstand it for a long, long time." With $630 billion in foreign currency reserves the Saudis are following a long term policy of full production. Gasoline subsidies are being reduced, IPO of Saudi Aramco being discussed to raise additional capital, and other steps being taken to plan for long term oil prices. Flexibility for a change in policy is diminished with the addition of Iranian oil production to supplies following the lifting of sanctions. The events in 2015-2016 of Russian bombing campaign in Syria, and the cutoff of diplomatic relations with Iran, have worsened the standoff with Iran and Russia in the Middle East conflict. As a result it appears that the Saudis are settling down for a long term policy of full production which would keep oil prices low for the long term. India, Japan, China, the U.S. and the European Union, Turkey and other countries benefit from low oil prices when their economies need a boost in 2016-2017....

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The WSJ's Spencer Jakab points out the role of politics- with Saudi Arabia in a standoff with Iran and Russia in Middle Eastern conflicts- and Saudi policy of full output with no cuts unlikely to change, ensuring lower prices for 2016-2017.

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This article in the Economist describes the different perspectives on the Greece crisis in July 2015 as seen inside Germany. It cites a poll showing German 51% to 41% favoring a Greek exit from the eurozone. About 85% reject further concessions in a July 1, 2015 poll, including 68% of the supporters of The Left, a post-Communist party. Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel, said of the Greece timeout from the euro proposal by finance minister Schauble- that it was the appropriate thing to consider all options. And 78% polled see Greeks not keeping their side of the deal. Some experts see stronger sentiment about Greece after the events in July 2015, and the raising of the issue of the debt haircut given to Germany in 1953, because Germans see themselves as having gone to great lengths to build a strong Europe after their own troubled history in the 20th century. If the goal was to win German support in 2015, this has come across as poor tactics and poor strategy, considering how it has changed German opinion across the spectrum of political opinion....