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Business investment has been extremely weak since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This covers spending on investment goods - on equipment, software, inventory accumulation, residential and nonresidential construction. Compared to the 1982 recession non residential fixed investment has staged a weak recovery. In the 2 years after the 1982 recession nonresidential fixed investment went up by 27%, whereas in the last 2 years it is up only 12%. Spending on business equipment and software declined twice as much in this recession as in the recession of 1982, according to Mankiw. The comparison with 1982 is because the U.S. experienced 10% unemployment during that downturn.

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People from academia meeting at Howard University's African American Economic Summit see a disturbing picture for improving the economic condition for black people in the U.S. Black unemployment at 13.8% is almost twice the rate for whites of 7%, according to government figures. Estimates of wealth disparity between whites and blacks of 20 to 1, declining black homeownership after the surge in foreclosures which hurt minorities badly, and lower savings after the 2008 financial crisis paint a bleak picture The outlook says participants is a bigger concern, not only have disparities widened, the future looks uncertain at best with further widening of the disparities a serious possibility.

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Cold weather dampened U.S. economic growth in the 4th quarter, with the initial reading of 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual growth in GDP revised to a reading of 2.4% by the Commerce Department. Projections by economists are for even lower growth of 2% in the 1st quarter from the cold weather, which was the worst in 35 years for some parts of the north and midwestern U.S. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 2.6%, and the savings rate dropped by one percentage point from the average of the last 3 years to 4.5%. Government spending and investment declined by 12.8%, as efforts to reduce the deficit continued. Offsetting this, and the bright spot here was more business investment on equipment, software and buldings of 7.3%, and exports up by 9.4%. GDP in the 4th quarter was up 2.5% from the prior year and unemployment rate was 6.6% in Jan 2014. Overall assessment was cautiously optimistic for the U.S. economy at the beginning of the sixth year following the global financial crisis of 2008....

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The U.S. Federal Reserve issued the results of the third round of stress tests since 2009. It said 18 0f 19 financial firms had enough capital buffers to continue lending in a sharp decline in the economy with a fall in housing prices and the stock market and unemployment rising to 13%. Ally Financial failed the test. Citigroup, MetLife and SunTrust Banks were asked to resubmit their capital plans to the Fed. Citigroup's dividend plan was rejected. No banks were asked to raise capital. J.P. Morgan and other banks were allowed to issue dividends and buyback shares. J.P. Morgan plans to repurchase $15 billion in stocks in the next 12 months. Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp also plan to issue dividends and buyback shares. Analyst estimates are for $32 billion in added dividend increases and share buybacks in in the next 12 months. The results are a boost for bank stocks.

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It may come as a surprise that even a conservative Republican Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, talked recently on CSPAN television about the US needing immigration in an organized manner to meet the growing shortage of workers in the coming years in the US. This report by Alicia Caldwell in the WSJ looks at the city of Topeka, Kansas, home to University of Kansas in nearby Lawrence, which is trying to attract immigrants who are allowed to work to meet 6600 worker positions that remain unfilled. Mayor Michael Padilla of Topeka is a cross between a liberal Republican and a conservative Democrat as are many immigrants from countries in South America. The Greater Topeka Partnership is looking to attract Spanish speaking people to fill these jobs, because of stagnant population and a lower unemployment rate than the US average. This effort in Spanish language has resulted in 10,000 resumes submitted. Another effort for Uniting with Ukraine has brought 160 Ukrainians to Topeka. These efforts are happening since 2019 and in some cases the city has offered $15000 a person for relocation costs. Citywide the effort is being welcomed including the business community. Topeka, a town of 126,000 is home to 17% Spanish speaking residents. Molly Howey who heads Go Topeka and the Greater Topeka Partnership is shown here, and says Topeka had already had success with its Spanish speaking population when it started welcoming new immigrants.  The rapid recovery of the US after the pandemic and its resilience for growth over the next decade is creating a recognition among Republicans as well as Democrats, among economic planners and business of the need to fill shortages of workers as the US invests trillions of dollars in its economy in coming years in infrastructure, manufacturing and and new technologies. It is an effort that is unprecedented since the post war effort to build a modern economy in the 1950's. ...

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A strong U.S. jobs report in July with 255,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.9%, provides positive sentiment going forward. The Federal Reserve is likely to be wary of raising rates because businesses are hiring but are not making the investments needed to spur economic growth, which remains at about 1%. The labor force participation rate is now at 62.8%. The measure of unemployment and underemployment shows a better picture of how different age groups are faring including the 25-54 years age group- this is at 9.7% in July 2016, it was 9.6% in June 2016. This measure shows those working part time because they cannot find a full time job. The market today is stronger for those with the right job skills, but not across the spectrum for all Americans, only setting the stage for further progress and increasing investment as confidence improves.

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California's unemployment rate reached 12.6% in April 2010. California's economy is a large factor in the US economy, with 13% of economic output according to the state Dept of Finance. It faces a $19 billion budget deficit through June 2011. California's construction industry declined 14.3% for the year ending April 2010 and this is slow to recover. This affects the national recovery.

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Pope Francis meets Bosnia's three presidents in a Council, with each president rotating in office every 8 months. He also addresses a crowd of 65,000 in Sarajevo. Pope Francis told the crowd: " In a world unfortunately rent by conflicts, this land can become a message, attesting that it is possible to live together side by side." A council of Interracial Dialogue to bring together different clerics is working well, says the Vatican's ambassador Luigi Pezzuto. At the level of politics divisions remain as political leaders still promote ethnic nationalism. But overall the Dayton Accords negotiated by Richard Holbrooke of the U.S. are working well. The economy struggles with 50% unemployment and 60% of the workers dependent on the government.

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The Congressional Budget Office report in 2011 shows after tax resource flow that a family has to pay for consumption, a better approach to measuring the growth in incomes since 1970 including government help to lower income people and gains in the stock market for upper class Americans. This report shows after tax resource flow for the top 1% in the U.S. tripled from 1970 to 2011. For the middle fifth of the distribution families experienced real net income gains of 36 percent, and the bottom fifth of the distribution real net income gain of 50 percent.This suggests gains of about 10 percent a year if averaged over 30 years for the top 1 percent compared to 1% a year for the middle fifth and 1.5% for the bottom fifth. The report was done in 2011 and this could skew the results. Between 2011 and 2015 the stock market recovered and this would suggest a much higher gain for the top 1% of incomes and the top 10%, while also providing improvement in incomes for the middle fifth and the bottom fifth as unemployment decreased. Working class and minimum wage slowly recovered, and interest income on savings extremely low, with large student and other household debt, so that even at 10-12% gains per year for the top 1%, and 1-2% for the middle fifth of the distribution and 1.5-2% for the bottom fifth the last three decades have not been good for working class and middle income Americans compared to the the period 1950-1970 early postwar period recovery....

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Feldstein sees the need for some kind of tax cut in 2008 that would be triggered by increase in unemployment. He advocates further decreases in interest rates by the Fed in 2008. He doesn't see much relief for subprime borrowers. The doollar in his view is still overly strong and a lower dollar would help the US reduce its trade deficit by stimulating exports even further.

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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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This exceptional report from rural areas in France by Roger Cohen shows why the support is growing for the far right and the far left in rural areas and smaller towns outside the large cities which have suffered from high unemployment and neglected as technology and capital moved to other areas. Cohen talks to Nicholas Bay, secretary general of the National Front, who says this election is about patriotism, the nation state vs globalization, as the National Front tries to portray its opposition as being less pro-France, and less pro French culture. The centrist candidate Macron stands in front of a statue of Alexandre Dumas in Picardy, an hour northeast of Paris, and says he is for an "open patriotism" that embraces people of different origins and embraces refugees. Cohen attends a Le Pen rally in Metz, Lorraine, talks to a National Front mayor in Picardy and left party supporters in the town, talks to foreigners in the banlieu of Sevran. Cohen says a National Front victory is possible if enough voters who support the far left party of Melenchon do not vote for centrist candidate Macron, and enough voters of centre right Fillon supporting French culture and nationalism drift to Le Pen. As in the Dutch election with Moroccans derided by the far right the immigrant issue is a factor. Against this background is how events play out in the last weeks of the election. In March and April the events in the U.S. show a Trump administration moving to the centre, adopting a quieter and more constructive tone towards Mexico and immigrants. Relations with Russia have worsened after the U.S. response to the chemical attack in Syria, and the French public may now see this as a common threat to NATO and the European Union. As in the Dutch election a lot depends on the last weeks of the election and how well the centrist parties, the centre right and the centre left get their message across about what is to be gained by building anew on the foundations of the past without risking a lot on an uncertain path of referendums and exit from the European Union.   ...

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Some of the concern about the economy comes from the economic damage done by the coronavirus. The longer the shutdowns continue the more the damage. About 17 million have filed claims for unemployment benefits. The WSJ consensus of 57 economists is that 14.4 million jobs will be lost in coming months, and the unemployment rate will rise to a record 13% in June, from a 50 year low of 3.5% in February. The earliest the economy could go back to the level in February 2020 is 27 months says the WSJ economist survey. The brighter side of this comes in two aspects of this pandemic recovery curve. By flattening the curve and strict testing, contact tracing and isolation till the vaccine is developed about half the jobs lost can be recovered by the end of summer, says Moody's Analytics. The vaccine a year from now or in 9 months by November 2020 would allow the economy to recover faster. A more optimistic view comes from Daiwa Capital Markets which predicts many of people laid off will be recalled quickly allowing the labor market to recover in 6 months by September or October 2020. Only finance and real estate might take longer but most of the industries where the vast majority of jobs are could be back on their feet. The credible evidence supporting this perspective of a rebound comes from Colorado and Washington which require large employers to specify whether layoffs are temporary or permanent, 70% this year are temporary. Compare this to the prior 2009 recession where this figure was less than 1%- as reported by WSJ. The big push in this direction will be the $2 trillion that the Trump administration and U.S. Congress have committed to this task. Even more so is the determination of president Trump to protect American workers at all costs, that every job counts, and that businesses without exception to get the money have to show that workers are retained. The very success of the aid is being judged by how quickly people are back to work. Now for a look at where the situation is today- Oxford Economics, a UK based forecasting and consulting firm, projects 27.9 million jobs lost with industries other than those ordered to close making up 8 to 10 million of that number. It projects April's report will will capture late March layoffs. It will show cuts to 3.4 million business services workers, including lawyers, software groups, architects and consultants, advertising professionals, in addition to 1.5 million non-essential healthcare workers, 100,000 information workers. One conclusion of this report is that the virus does not discriminate across business groups and business service workers are also affected. Many companies that were hiring will cancel that move and many will cut hours worked. Many of these business services are not a priority. Hospitals are affected too, as they cut elective surgical procedures and routine care that are major revenue sources. Some are now charging for telemedicine visits to maintain some revenue stream. State and local governments employ 20 million workers. As tax receipts decline these local governments will face choices of cutting payrolls and services without enough federal government relief. In a way laying off workers and having them take unemployment benefits shifts that burden to the federal government so that services for overtime to police and paramedics, retention and deployment of nurses in schools.    ...

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Christina Romer, economic advisor to President Obama, offers a different view about monetary policy in 2011, suggesting that monetary easing after QE II should continue. She also argues for higher stimulus. She cites the improved economy in the period 1933-1937 as an example of the advantages of monetary easing, of 1937-1940 as a period where a focus on deficits resulted in a fall back of the U.S. economy. This is a view presented also by Paul Krugman. Meltzer's and Fed Governor Hoenig's view is that excessive monetary easing in 2003 created bubbles and that QE II has not reduced unemployment. Meltzer warned in 2009 that excessive monetary easing needed to be gradually withdrawn rather than risk an excesssive contraction later on.

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Einsinger points out that Treasury Geithner's performance reflects the mindset of U.S. president Obama, reflected also in Obama's other appointments in his administration which favored one group over another. Change that Obama talked about in the 2008 election campaign that propelled his candidacy, turned out to be more at the margins than change and action that reflected a vision of the priorities for America's middle class and vast majority of average Americans. By leaving homeowners to a wave of foreclosures, the administration weakened a middle class at the lower end already hit by the lower wages from globalization in manufacturing, other changes in the global economy, high levels of student debt of over $1 trillion, and the lasting damage to unemployment from the global financial crisis.

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Amy Goldstein spends time in Janesville, Wisconsin, in U.S. vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan's congressional district, and talks to local people to give a glimpse of life in Janesville after the closing of the GM plant and the 2008 financial crisis. She looks at the effects of long-term unemployment and cuts in services in communities such as Janesville as a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, while on leave from the national staff of the Washington Post. Ryan was first elected to the U.S. Congress in 1998, about a decade before the closing of the GM plant, and has been reelected to Congress each time for 7 consecutive terms. Goldstein says Janesville is typical of the communities across America that have suffered job losses- the loss of more jobs in manufacturing than any other sector, a greater impact of job loss for men than women, and a large impact on people who had less education but well paid jobs. As shown by the recent settlement for a Caterpillar plant in Joliet, Illinois, and across the U.S. manufacturing landscape, older workers who enjoyed higher wages are retiring with newer workers coming in at a lower wage, which is improving U.S. manufacturing competitiveness but also increasing the importance of education for higher paying jobs....

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Simon Nixon of the Econmist on the report's findings for the future of the world economy. He points to the heavy debt overhang for individuals and banks that will take years to overcome resulting in entrenched unemployment and sluggish growth, somewhat reminiscent of Japan's years of stagnation after its bubble. The entrenched unemployment he argues will permanently lower the economic potential of developed countries of US and Europe. Public debt will rise so that private debt can fall. Bank lending that is cautious will only slow any recovery for a long time. And the grim facts he presents are that about 25 million jobs will be lost in the 30 rich countries of the OECD before all this is over during the coming decade, and several million jobs probably will never come back. Auto manufacturing and manufacturing in general is an example where some jobs lost may never be regained. There is no room for complacency here.

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This essay in the Economist magazine points out the special nature of the 2017 presidential election in France with the rejection of establishment candidates- Manuel Valls, Sarkozy, Juppe, and now Fillon. Fillon and Valls were prime ministers under Sarkozy and Hollande, from the Republican and Socialist parties respectively. With unemployment high in the areas outside the major cities their is a surge in support in these areas for the National Front. Emmanuel Macron, former Economy minister in the Hollande government, is the only candidate leading Marie Le Pen at this time. In a second round of voting he has to bring in centre right supporters and centre left voters and moderate voters, and appeal enough to working class voters, young unemployed people, offering hope for a better future to win this election against Le Pen. Economist magazine research shows support highest for Le Pen outside major cities in outlying areas, and for Macron in the major cities. There is also an education divide as seen in the U.S. election and Brexit referendum with less educated voters preferring the nationalist sentiment, church support sentiment fostered by the National Front.  ...

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Commodities prices hit a low in June before the second Greece election on June 16, with lower unemployment numbers in the U.S. and growth of 6-7% in India and China. Still average prices of oil in 2012 of $115 a barrel are higher than the level in 2011. And corn prices dropping to $5.25 a bushel are still high compared with prices earler. Corn farmers in the U.S. are adding to acreage. The relatively lower prices also give more room for smaller stimulus by central banks to stimulate growth. Freeport-Mining CEO, Richard Atkinson said in a presentation that the growth is coming on top of a bigger baseline for China, India and Brazil. China's copper consumption went up by about 6 million tons a year, averaging 13% growth a year in the period 1995-2010. Now even with slower growth at 6% a year, by 2025 he estimates China's copper consumption at 9 million tons per year. This is a structural change that is supporting commodity prices, says Amrita Sen, analyst at Barclays Capital.

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French president Macron is seen as aloof from voter concerns about the rising cost of living. Visiting a farmer in the Burgundy region Marie Le Pen said prices of food and vegetables have gone up 25% over 5 years since Macron became president.  To win over supporters from working class communities in north and northeast who have voted for Jean Luc-Melenchon, a former Socialist candidate, Macron visited Denian, a town in the north of France.  Melenchon's France Unbowed party got about 21.95 % of the vote compared to Le Pen's 23.15%. Getting working class voters to support Macron who had 27.84% of the vote is now crucial for Macron. Denian has an unemployment rate of 36%. Macron told voters the best way to tackle poverty is to bring down the unemployment rate which is now 7.4%.  Many of these communities in the north, northeast, and in the southeast have suffered from the two decade shift of manufacturing to China, creating a situation similar to that in the midwest of the US and posing a challenge for established parties. The Republicains of De Gaulle and the Socialists of Mitterand, the established parties did badly in the election, each getting less than 5%of the vote. It is this problem that Macron has to address to get the votes of working class voters in France. Challenging the notion that he has been aloof from this problem and the problem of cost of living for young and for pensioners Macron says he will listen, learn and act, and he is "not afraid to go into battle in the most difficult areas." On this first day of campaigning for the second round he spent 2 hours talking to people in Denian. Angry voters told him he did not care for pensioners. In his response Macron said he will increase the minimum pension from 10500 euros to 13200 euros a year. A pension reform plan for increasing the retirement age for pensions to 65 from 62 will now be put to a referendum so that voters could reject it if they chose to. Macron also responded to the sentiment that his administration was more concerned about the rich by proposing that firms paying dividends to shareholders will be required to give one off bonuses of 6000 euros to all employees earning less than 46,000 euros a year.  On his opponent Marie Le Pen's plan to cut VAT tax on gasoline to 5% from 20%, Macron told voters that this was counterfeit money, asking "can anyone really say there will be no VAT for gasoline imported from the rest of the world?" ...

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Project 2025, originating at the Heritage Foundation, most dangerous idea similar to abolishing Social Security is to consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve. Why? Because the Fed was established to avoid banking panics and setup a sound banking system, a sound economic system. It suggests unravelling solutions that were developed after one hundred years of experience gained by US that has made the period since 1950 the least crisis prone compared to prior to Fed's formation in 1913.  Mr. Trump himself said in 2022 that the Heritage Foundation will "lay the groundwork and detail the plans" for what our movement will do, according to the WSJ report." It has become a matter of huge controversy with plans for outright attacks on the civil service, a blueprint of plans to shut down important government agencies such as the Education Department, Department of Homeland Security, and affect the functioning of the government of the United States in accordance with the Constitution.  The most radical is to change the financial system of the US that evolved from the Great Depression and previous economic crises since 1900 that led to the formation of the US Federal Reserve as the central bank that monitors aspects of the economy such as inflation and unemployment. Project 2025 says consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve and replace it with 'free banking' that does not control interest rates or the supply of money. These are untested ideas but more significant is the fact that it is the US Fed that under different presidents has taken the lead in managing the economy when a crisis happened. President Woodrow Wilson signed into law the founding of the US Fed, and its regional Fed system with a. supervisory board in Washington on Dec 23, 1913. Before the Fed the US currency was printed by individual banks and inflation or the economy could not be controlled. This led to banking panics the last in 2007, with great loss to the working people and families of America. It is unthinkable today that individual banks not the central bank the US Fed would issue US currency dollar banknotes. Yet it is just this kind of radical Barry Goldwater type of idea that is being put forward in Project 2025 that is written for a future administration running the country. ...

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Australia is seeing strong results from apickup in CHinese demand, the stimulus of 67 billion Australian dollars ($60.58 billion US), and investment including A$43 billion natural-gas project of Chevron Corporation. As a result the unemployment rate fell to 5.7% in September from 5.8% in August 2009. Australia has the third highest fiscal stimulus package 2008-2010 as a percent of GDP at 4.6%, after the US at 5.6%, S. Korea at 4.9%. As aresult Australia's central bank is the first of the G-20 to raise interest rates lifting it to 3.25%.

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Alan Meltzer is a respected voice on US Federal Reserve policies since the time Paul Volcker was Fed chairman He says the Bernanke Fed is making some serious policy mistakes. The first is concentrating on near term events, such as business response to Obama administration policies, over which it has little influence, while neglecting the long term consequences of its policies. The second is its effort to tackle unemployment by interpreting its mandate as a dual mandate of tackling both unemployment and inflation. By tackling one at a time, he says, the Fed is likely to fail totally. The US is unlikely to not feel the inflation that is going on around the world. By ignoring the changes in money supply growth the Fed is making another mistake. His advice is for the Fed to increase interest rates it controls to 1%, to signal that it is aware of inflation risks. Second, the Fed should annonce a specific, detailed plan explaining how it will reduce $900 billon of the $1 trillion banks continue to hold in excess of the legally required reserves. Third, the Fed should end QE II, the most recent round of treasury bond purchases. Meltzer says if the Fed waited for two more months in Nov 2010, it would have found that a double dip recession was not about to occcur and it could have held off from pursuing QE II. Meltzer emphasizes that slow growth and unemployment is not a monetary problem, because of the ample liquidity already in the financial system. Uncertainty about government policy and the future direction has been clarified by the election which will help put the economy back on track. Philadelphia Fed chairman expresses similiar views in other articles and an interview with O'Grady of WSJ....

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Tom Keene of Blomberg BusinessWeek talks to a panel of experts about the future prospects for the US and the global economy. The discussion was spurred by Carmen Reinhart's paper at the central banker's Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference. This paper forecasts high unemployment, low housing prices and very low growth in the US upto 2017. Shiller, Calomiris, Orszag, Kaufman and Bill Gross are part of this panel. Shiller's to do list main item is to get help to local and state governments by restoring general revenue sharing arrangements. Gross would focus on jobs that can hold up in a competitive economy, and put back some of the production that is taking place in the developing countries back into the developed countries, as part of a rebalancing; through a currency realignment. Kaufman would like to see a capital expenditure program by the US government, including infrastructure and education. Calomiris would like to see a setup of a new Republican Congresss to set the stage for post 2012 efforts. Calomiris favors cutting entitlements, cutting payroll taxes, but is not clear how this would help lower the deficit. Orszag points to feedback from business leaders suggesting a lowering of payroll taxes will not spur hiring, as the real reason for not hiring was low 1-2 % expected growth. Shiller, Kaufman and Gross see government efforts as realistically needed in the current situation....