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This editorial deserves an award for best editorial on international economic matters in 2011. The editorial, goes right to the point, when it says the French, the Germans, and the European Central Bank are deluding themselves if they call this weeks resolution of the Greece debt crisis a realistic solution. It is anything but a solution. The Journal calls it a French deception. It is unworkable because the main problem, the high ratio of Greek debt to GDP -which is now 155% and is expected to reach 170% by the end of 2011- is sure to get worse under the arrrangement designed in the interest of French and German banks. Under the arrangement French and German banks and other creditors will get to double their return from 4-5% today to an effective interest rate of 10% if Greece grows by 2% a year, on 49% of the bonds they hold. These bonds will be converted into 30 year bonds. This effectively doubles the interest cost for Greece in servicing this debt. On the other approximately 51% of the bonds the French and German banks would redeem the bonds for cash and a triple A, sovereign zero coupon bond. The Journal asks what is the point of making Greece's debt problem worse than it is now and calling it a solution. The austerity cuts are already expected to lead to a deep recession, something that is also happening in Portugal, leading to a worsening of the debt situation. Creditors are not sharing in the losses under this arrangement, as Germany and the Netherlands have insisted. As the Journal points out they are instead taking out half of their investment and doubling their return on the remainder. And the fears of contagion for Spain are not lessened, as financial markets can clearly see through this for what it is- unworkable and unrealistic. ...

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Pope Francis is strongly critical of the manner in which the capitalist system has functioned in recent decades, increasing inequality, and hurting the marginalized, the working class and poor. Pope Francis tells people during his visit to the poorest countries in Latin America, Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay, that the Catholic Church committed grave errors during the period of Spanish colonialism by allying with the ruling classes and creating great inequalities and suffering. The director of the Institute for Policy Research and Catholic studies at Catholic University of America, Stephen Schneck, says the Pope is reflecting a century of activism on social issues since the Pope Leo XIII encyclical in 1891, calling for social and economic fairness for labor, with the encyclical "Rerum Novarum" - or "On the Condition of Labor." The Pope's message in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, to nearly 2000 social activists, farmers and trash workers, neighborhood activists, was that change has to come from grassroots, that the local communities have acquired the knowledge which is valuable to act for economic and environmental betterment. He praised cooperatives and local organizations that enhanced the value of labor. His message resonates say Catholics because he has stayed in close contact with local communities, and the poor, working class people in Argentina. It is focussed on empowerment of local communities. In Bolivia the left government has adopted measures that attract foreign capital and investment, so that it is a model that stays away from socialist ideology, while at the same time embracing the grassroots idea of empowering local people and communties. In this way it has improved living standards in Bolivia and received favorable ratings in capital markets....

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Philipp Rosler, head of the FDP party and Germany's Economy minister, says he opposes further involvement by German taxpayers or the ECB in the debt restructuring for Greece. He pointed out that the current negotiations between Greece and the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) were about private sector involvement. Tax payers of Germany and other European countries are already making a contribution he said. The IMF is pushing for the ECB to take a haircut or writedown on the $40 billion of Greek bonds it holds to supplement the haircut taken by bondholders of over 50%. Rosler said in an interview with the Journal that Athens should keep its side of the bargain by implementing reforms and not letting them just be on paper. On Germany or the EU directly taking responsibility over the Greek budget, Rosler said this should be the responsibility of the Greek parliament. At the same time he pointed out that its important to have a specific and rigorous montiroing process just to be fair to taxpayers in the EU....

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Greenberg of AIG asks why Goldman got paid in full while AIG suffered and languished? Questions he raises about the way Goldman Sachs acted during and before the crisis, with its actions helping precipitate the crisis, and the need for investigative reporting to uncover the facts. Serious questions raised by Greenberg.

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IMF economist Oliver Blanchard, says the euro's depreciation vis-a-vis the dollar "would be a good thing." Because "in a way Europe needs it more than the U.S., and the U.S. could probably offset it in some way." The IMF forecast is for a 0.3% contraction in the eurozone in 2012 and growth at 0.7% in 2013. Blanchard says a drop in the euro exchange rate of 10% would normally boost growth in GDP by 1.4%.

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S&P said it will maintain India's credit rating of triple B minus, the lowest investment grade rating, yet it may downgrade it to "junk status" in the next 2 years. S&P said this could happen "if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting. India's growth rate declined to 6.9% in the year ending March 31, 2012, down from 8.4% the prior year. The problem is that India's current account deficit is growing rapidly with the high import bill for energy supplies. The current account deficit is now at 4% of GDP. The trade deficit increased to $185 billion in this fiscal year, up 56% over the prior year. Additional problems are finding ways to finance the deficit with foreign capital, as European banks are pulling back during the current eurozone crisis. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar says this could be a big problem. Net foreign capital investment is declining rapidly from $72 billion in February 2012 to $387 million in March, with a net outflow of $27 million in the April 1-25 period. The budget deficit, which has drawn the attention of the RBI, India's central bank, and of S&P, is at 5.9% of GDP for fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. This is larger than the government target of 4.6%. The government has set a deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013....

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Ian Talley provides this excellent account of how this drop in oil prices is likely to add to economic growth in major world economies, removing any ambiguity about the positive effect on the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to about $65 from $105 between June and December 2014. The IMF estimates growth in 2015 will increase from 3.1% to 3.5% largely because of the lowering in energy costs. JP Morgan Chase economists see an addition of 0.7% points in global growth in the first half of 2015. ECB president Draghi sees the lower oil prices as an unambiguous positive. Estimates from Rhodium Group show major oil importing countries seeing import bills cut by $500 billion if prices remain low for 6-8 months, with $90 billion going into the U.S. economy. IMF estimate is that only 20% of the drop in oil prices is from lower demand, about 80% from higher fuel efficiency, increased supply using new technologies, decisions by OPEC to lower oil price, increases in supply. Based on estimates by the Rhodium Group, IEA and the IMF, the extra money flowing into the economies of the U.S., Asia and Western Europe from reduced oil import bills, as measured in percentage of GDP is: the U.S. 0.5%, Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. Italy and France and other oil importing countries benefit. The impact comes at a time when Japan, China, India and eurozone economies badly needed a boost after significant slowdown in growth in 2014. It could not have come at a better time and because it is technologically driven as in the case of highly fuel efficient automobiles and new oil exploration technologies, a self sustaining process. The corresponding impact for oil exporters is: Russia -4.7%, Nigeria -5.4%, Venezuela -10.2%....

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In a complete reversal of the situation in 2012 when Spain's and Italy's bond yields reached about 8%, Spain's 10 year government bond yields declined to 2.579% on June 8, 2014, according to Tradeweb. The ECB's efforts to fight deflation by injecting money into the financial system in 2014, and investor search for higher yields, is driving up the price of Spain's bonds and reducing yields below that of U.S. Treasurys for the first time. The period it took for this to happen- just 2 years!

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ECB president Mario Draghi tells a newsconference on April 14, 2015, that the bond buying program is "proceeding smoothly." He said that he does not see scarcity in the bond market. The ECB plans to continue its purchases of government bonds and other debt at a rate of 60 billion euros a month through September 2016. He said the program of very low interest rates for a very long time "is fertile terrain for financial instability imbalances," but he did not see evidence of systemically large financial imbalances at this time. The ECB approach would be to tackle the risks by using its power as a bank regulator, not by changing monetary policy, said Draghi. He was optimistic about the initial results, saying "more accomodative monetary policy is being translated into better credit conditions, which is something we have not seen before." The euro is down to $1.06 and low oil prices have helped improve economic conditions, as well as ongoing structural reforms pushed by the EU and ECB. Draghi's forecast for economic growth in the eurozone is now up from 1% to 1.5% for 2015....

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Criticism of the EU's handling of the Greece crisis by IMF officials in a report. The report says the actions taken for debt restructuring in 2012 should have come much earlier to reduce the debt burden and the size of austerity measures in Greece. Similiar criticism has been voiced by president Hollande of France and in editorials by the WSJ. President Samaras of Greece says the sharp cuts in spending reduced potential for growth in the economy.

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Emperor Akihito's efforts to remind Japanese about Japanese war history after the Manchurian Incident in 1931. In his New Year's address Akihito tried to address the importance of learning from history as memories of the war fade with the young generation- "It is important for us to take this opportunity to study and learn from the history of this war, starting with the Manchurian Incident of 1931, as we consider the future direction of our country." The Abe administration's effort to revise Article 9 of the constitution to allow "collective self-defense" is unpopular in Japan, and the Emperor nudges the Japanese people in the right direction.

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A detailed account of the developments that unfolded for Bankia bank during and after the initial public offering of its shares, after it was put together from seven failing cajas savings banks with bad real estate loans made during the housing bubble. The procrastination and small steps taken to paper over the problems by the Spanish government and regulators during the last year of the Zapatero administration and into the first year of the Rajoy administration.

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An audit of Spain's banking system by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, shows that Spanish banks would need 53.745 billion euros to be cleaned up if mergers and acquisitions underway are completed.The amount goes up to 59.3 billion euros if this does not happen. Bankia bank will need 24.7 billion euros to meet capital requirements. Three other nationalized banks need 21.5 billion euros, including 3.2 billion euros for Banco Popular. Of the 14 audited banks only 7 need capital infusions. The other banks considered healthy include BBVA, Santander and La Caixa. These findings are similiar to a preliminary finding by Oliver Wyman and estimates provided by Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister, that Spanish banks will need 51 billion to 62 billion euros of capital infusion. Spain's secretary of state for the economy, Fernando Jimenez Latorre, says Spain will soon request about 40 billion euros of the 100 billion euro bailout offer for banks negotiated by Spain in June with the EU. It is not clear whether the capital infusion will go directly to Spain's banks as Spain has argued, or go through the Spanish government. The audits were important to provide credibility through independent assessment of losses in Spain's banking system, and remove the fog of uncertainty that is pushing up Spain's borrowing rate in capital markets....

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J.P. Morgan Chase announces $2 billion in trading losses in May 2012. The Chief Investment Office unit made a bet with a trading strategy that CEO Jamie Dimon said had grown very complex. These losses could grow or shrink during the rest of the year.

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The Merkel government's effort to convince a skeptical German public about the need to aid Spain's banks. This includes a video on YouTube. The German parliament will vote shortly on the loans to Spain's savings banks.

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The MIT Economics Department helped shape the thinking of influential central bank governors, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, Ben Bernanke of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank. Bernanke (1979) and Draghi (1977) received their Ph.D.s in economics from MIT in the late 1970's, with Prof. Stanley Fischer (1973-94) as their advisor. Charles Bean, deputy governor of the Bank of England followed them a few years later. Mervyn King was a visiting professor at MIT (1983-84). King and Bernanke shared an office as professors at MIT. The MIT school came up with a pragmatic and activist approach which argued there was a role for government when markets and the economy stumbled. This followed a period when economists from the universities at Chicago, Minnesota and Rochester were influential, making the case for efficient markets and businesses holding rational future expectations which were ahead of government planners; saying government should play a minimal role. The MIT trained central bankers have made shaping public and market expectations an important part of policy actions. Draghi's July 23, 2012 remark- "Believe me this will be enough," was an effort to shape expectations after the European Central Bank's July 2012 bond buying actions in the eurozone. Germany has a competing version based in Bonn. Germany's former Bundesbank president, Axel Weber, was the tutor at Bonn University for current Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann. Both Weber and Weidmann supported austerity measures, inflation fighting efforts of former ECB head Claude Trichet, and opposed Draghi's monetary easing and bond buying efforts to reduce excessive yields of Italy and Spain....