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Greece's Hazardous Road to Restructuring

Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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The logjam between the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) and the German government- 2010-2012

07/01/2011

The roots of the Eurozone financial crisis go back to the issue of who should pay for the excess lending of French and German banks. Will it be the German taxpayer or the banks that took excessive risks? German financial experts, the German government and parliament, German public opinion, are all adamantly opposed to letting the banks off without sharing at least 50% of the costs of a bailout. A review done by the European Commission in coordination witht he IMF and the ECB, shows that from May 2010 (the date for the inception of the aid program to Greece) to September 2011, $52 billion of the $91 billion loaned to Greece went to pay bondholders for bonds that came due. The July 2011 EU agreement for Greece called for 21% of losses to be allocated to the bondholders. The German government is pushing for 50% and German parlamentary leaders in Merkel's party are balking at anything less.

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Bondholders accepting 50% of losses- as agreed with EU leaders in Nov-Dec 2011 -will not be enough for Greece to meet its debt obligations, because of a fast deteriorating economy. By March 20, 2012, 14.5 billion euros of bonds come up for repayment or refinancing. More money will be needed from the EU. The voluntary exchange by private creditors of existing bonds for new bonds with 50% face value and maturing over a longer period will be made under an agreement using English law. This will be harder to change in the future, putting the burden on any future financing shortfall on EU countries unwilling to make further commitments to Greece.

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