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Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Reducing inequality and giving labor a larger share of national income to increase consumer demand, allowing more immigration, and targeting a higher inflation rate are unconventional measures necessary to increase growth as monetary policy reaches the limit of its effectiveness at near zero interest rates, says Galston. Growth in U.S. since 2000 is about 1.8% annually on average compared to 3.6% in the postwar years to 2000. Growth since 2000 rarely reaches 3% a year. Robert Gordon has pointed out the factors of a slowdown in mass education, rapidly aging population, rising inequality and increasing public debt as reasons for slower growth in the future. Glaeser and Summers also support this view. There is also the possibility that the secular stagnation idea suggested by Hansen in 1938 after years of low growth, comes at a point when growth is about to pick up pace as happened during and after the war.
Washington Post Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Some startling statistics on U.S. wages and incomes and the increase of part-time workers, by the publisher of U.S. News and World Report, Mortimer Zuckerman. He cites the Pew Research Center reports that show one third of Americans identifying themeselves as lower class or lower middle class compared to one quarter before 2008. This affects social mobility with the increasing gaps in incomes, education and social behaviour acting to reinforce each other and leading to even lower future mobility. Industries that are showing growth are in low wage occupations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows growth in future in industries noted for low wage part time work- health care, social assistance and retail, with some jobs lacking minimum wage and overtime protections. Revealing in this respect is that in the last 2 years fully 43% of net employment growth is in the 1.7 million jobs added in low wage work in food service, retail and employment services industries. The number of Americans working full time declined by 5.9 million since Sept 2007, part time workers increased by 2.6 million. The effects of higher part time workers and job recovery predominantly in lower wage industries is likely to affect consumer spending and slow growth....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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According to Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center, 6.1 million Hispanic children lived in poverty in 2010. The poverty line is defined as a family of four living on $22,314. Of the total poor children in 2010, 37.3% were Hispanic, 30.5% white, and 26.6% black. Hispanics were hit hard by the 2008-2009 recession because many are employed in construction and the hospitality industries or blue collar jobs. A majority of the Hispanic children were born in the U.S. 4.1 million have immigrant parents and 2.0 million have U.S. born parents. Of the total U.S. population Latinos are 16%, yet they comprise 23% of all the children in the country. With a quarter of America's children being Latino -and with these numbers expected to grow in coming years because of higher birth rates- the fact that many of these children are less likely to get a college education or acquire technical skills because of poverty levels, has serious implications for America's future competitiveness.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
WSJ Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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Krugman has some legitimate concerns. Noting that 600,000 jobs were lost in February, 2007, which would mean several million jobs lost, anywhere from 5 to 7 million jobs lost in 2009. In the face of this generating 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 as Obama plans to do, looks like not having done enough, and letting the worst effects of the downturn go on. And the lack of a plan to resolve the situation of failing banks, which are only drawing more of the government's capital, leaves continued weakness in credit markets and the economy that will hurt the unemployment picture through 2009. So in spite of all the rhetoric and good intentions, the lack of experience in dealing with a crisis of this magnitude, political deadlock, and an element of trial and error, learning and observing, as the President and his advisors deal with the evolving crisis, leaves the American economy exposed to many risks.
New York Times Original article ›
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A proposal by U.S president Obama to increase the minimum wage to $9.00 per hour from $7.25 to reduce poverty and inequality. This was announced in the State of the Union address of 2013.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Nasdaq OMX Group CEO, Robert Greifeld, says Janet Yellen and the U.S. Fed Open Market Committee should exercize caution in increasing interest rates in 2014. He cites the heavy risk for long term investor outlook and psychology of the Fed moving too quickly in increasing interest rates, because of the steep drop in oil prices, the crash of the ruble, slowdown in Europe, deflationary trends in the eurozone and Japan, and slow growth in China. The Fed now has more room for taking a cautious approach says Greifeld, as wage growth is tepid, the dollar is strong, and oil prices are down significantly.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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About 15% of Americans are below the official poverty line of $23,492 for family of four. In 1975 3.7% of Americans were in deep poverty, defined as being 50% below the offical poverty line. In 2012 the Census Bureau Population Survey shows 6.6% of Americans in deep poverty, close to doubling the percentage of people in deep poverty. States in the southern U.S. and midwest have some of the largest increase in deep poverty- Georgia's going from 5.3% in 2000 to 8.8% in 2012. Mississippi and Indiana show similiar increases. And in D.C. with high income levels the deep poverty rate is at 10.4%, affluent communities have high deep poverty rates in their midst, higher than rates in 2009.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The cost of tution for four year colleges has doubled in the U.S. since 1985 even after adjustment for inflation, according to the College Board. Over 3 million households in the U.S. owe more than $50,000 in student loans. Ths is ten times the figure of 300,000 in 1989, and about four times the figure of 794,000 in 2001. Upper middle income families with incomes between $94,000 and $205,000, based on Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. Federal Reserve data, shows they owed an average of $32,869 in college loans in 2010, up from $26,639 in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. This is affecting the choices parents and students in the middle class are making of colleges, preferring to go to second tier colleges to better manage the costs of tution.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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A Sept 2012 Census Bureau report shows the median income of a typical U.S. family declined or was flat in almost all states in 2011. Median household income declined in Nevada by 6%, in California by 3.8%. In Arizona and Florida incomes declined by 2.9%. For the U.S. median income declined by 1.3% to $50,502 in 2011. Poverty continues to increase, with California showing 335,760 people falling into annual income levels below $23,021 for a family of four in 2011, giving the state a 16.6% poverty rate.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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Bernanke's plan to address the deep downturn is very aggressive and he is pulling out all the stops. This includes the purchase of mortgage backed securities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac corporate debt and other assets, Since it stated its intention in late November to buy such securities, the 30 year mortgage rates have fallen to 5.2% from 6%, and refinance applications have tripled. Now the purchases will be greatly expanded. See the related link to this in Hubbard and Mayer article based on their research paper, in the WSJ, that shows that at a mortgage rate of 4.5% the housing market prices could stabilize. Next step the Fed will, starting early 2009, pump money into markets for student, auto, credit card ansd small business loans in hoping to bring life to those markets. How much money is involved? Quite a bit. All told the Fed's assets could add up to $5 trillion says Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, up from $2.2 trillion now. Its these sweeping moves and decisions that have overshadowed the December 16 announcement cutting the target federal funds rate to a range from zero to 0.25%, the lowest in its history. Whats the thinking behind this? Coy of BW points to Bernanke's research on the depression years and the lost decade years in Japan. In 1999, in a book he contributed to, Bernanke referred to Japan's monetary policy and passive approach as a self induced paralysis, including all the zombie loans that were allowed to continue on company books and no effort to clear up the bad assets quickly. He always thought highly of the aggressive approach taken by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and felt that more tools available and a better understanding of the market system since FDR's day enabled a lot more actions to be taken to reverse the kind of steep global downturn that might occur. Yardeni's view is that even though this huge asset buildup could lead to inflation down the road, the economy in the medium term faces a deflationary environment, and the only way to cope with this series of bubbles bursting is to create another bubble, rather than risk anything going seriously wrong. Basically Bernanke is making an assessment of the current situation, and he sees bad credit situation getting worse, bad unemployment situation getting worse, consumer spending falling off and getting worse, continued home foreclosures and falling prices, the transition between administrations and lack of policy direction for a few critical months complicating things, and he sees the economies of all trading partners in Asia and Europe weakening in great speed, and sees very tough years for 2009 and 2010 no matter what the administration and the Fed do. Not enough aggressive actions to forestall the worst is as bad as inaction in Bernanke's view. And with all the aggressive moves, including the $1 trillion stimulus and infrastructure spending to create 2.5 million jobs that Obama administration plans, the US and global picture for the next 24 months will still be a long uphill climb. So the risks for Bernanke are all in the region of not doing enough and not doing it vigorously and speedily to get the best results. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Earnings of the typical American man working full-time year round declined in 2010, and is now in inflation adjusted terms below the level in 1978, according to the U.S. Census Department. The income of a typical Ameircan family has declined for three consecutive years and is now at $49,445 for 2010. This is the level reached in inflation adjusted terms in 1996. 15.1% of the American people lived below the poverty line in 2010, and 22% of children lived below the poverty line. The poverty line is set at $22,314 for a family of four in 2010. Statisics from the U.S. Census Department.
The New York Times Original article ›
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Rosa Ines Rivera, a cook at the cafeteria for the Y.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, with 2 small children, describes the protests over the increase by Harvard administration of the premiums charged on health insurance that now take up over 10% of the income. She says she lives in public housing with her parents as she lost her apartment because she is behind on the rent, and now cannot afford to pay the increase in premiums. About 750 workers at Harvard are on strike on this issue. She says dining hall workers want the current pay of $31,193  a year increased to $35,000 to provide a living wage that helps them afford medical care, because of the high cost of living in Boston.  To get some idea of the plight of workers who provide the kind of nutritious meals that a lot of students depend on for healthy living- Rivera says she takes in about $450 a week after taxes, or about $1800, rent is $1150, which leaves $650 for herself and two children for all food, and expenses in Boston. The $4000 in premiums for health insurance would be about 330 per month, leaving her about $320 for food and living expenses with 2 children. Why the need to bring up children in poverty in America, for generation after generation, after putting in a full day of work? ...
New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
President Obama's program for education includes promoting charter schools, closing failed schools, making teacher pay reflect the quality of education they can provide, and providing financing to support better education and better classrooms. Here he outlined his plans in a major speech on education to an Hispanic group.
New York Times Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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Christina Romer, Prof. of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, was chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisors under U.S. president Obama. Here she discusses the different aspects of the debate on raising the minimum wage. Romer says the negative effects on unemployment are small. The impact on consumer spending is also limited. The anti-poverty effects are real for raising the minimum wage from the current $7.25 an hour, says Romer, as over half the families earning a minimum wage make less than $40,000 an hour. President Obama called for raising the minimum wage to $9 an hour in 2013. Studies show 13 million U.S. workers earning less than $9 an hour. Raising the incomes of these families by about $3500 an year under the president's proposal gives workers badly needed income to cope with rising cost of gas, food and other basic necessities. The effects on consumer spending are small, estimated at between $10 to $20 billion. Its main virtue is keeping the principle of fairness and maintaining social cohesion at a time of increaing inequality. Romer says there is competition for workers which makes it possible for workers at the lower end to get a fair wage, but does not account for the effect of high unemployment which takes pressure off raising the minimum wage in the market economy. Another benefit for countries of keeping a fair minimum wage is that other actions can be taken to improve competitiveness for business and manufacturing and reducing the deficit and be seen in a positive context of overall improvement. This is part of the case made in Europe for boosting the mnimum wage as austerity measures are taking place....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Declining manufacturing wages in the U.S. and the return of manufacturing jobs. Indiana's experience with new manufacturing plants.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke says he plans to keep interest rates low till the end of 2014. Bernanke told a news conference after a two day policy meeting of the Fed April 23-24: "It's a little premature to declare victory. Keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy."
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Caterpillar is asking workers at its Canadian plant to accept a large cut in wages and benefits. Wages and benefits at Caterpillar's rail equipment plant in LaGrange, Illinois, are less than 50% of the costs at the Caterpillar locomotive assembly plant in London, Ontario. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. manufacturing labor costs per unit of output were 13% lower in 2010 than in 2000. This compares with an increase of 2.3% in Germany, increase of 18% in Canada, and increase of 15% in South Korea. Caterpillar is also asking for more flexible work rules at the Canadian plant. The flip side of this is that U.S. workers are earning significantly less in manufacturing, especially considering inflation, and the middle class is shrinking in the U.S. At the same time wages in the U.S. that are more competitive with wages in Mexico and China with flexible work rules and use of automation and technology, is helping to reverse the shrinking of the manufacturing sector in the U.S....

Not Enough Inflation

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecasts in March 2012 show the U.S. will experience low inflation and high unemployment for many years. These forecasts are in sharp contrast to the expectations in the equity markets based on an uptick for a couple of months of unemployment numbers. The Fed's own statements suggest the improvement in hiring may be temporary and a response to the overreaction in hiring in 2009-2010 to the financial crisis, and not a lasting improvement. The Fed pointed out that the long term unemployed are at about 40% of the total unemployed and the share of the population that is working in March 2012 has barely budged from 58% in 2009.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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