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Slowing car sales are expected for Detroit auto manufacturers as Japanese sales recover after the tsunami and earthquake. A major reason for higher sales was pentup demand. Sales reached an annualized 14 million level for 2012. Research firm Polk says the average time a new car was owned went up to 71.4 months, and used cars 49.9 months, in Feb 2012. This is 23% above the level of the third quarter of 2008.

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Balancing medical work and family for young doctors. How a new generation of young doctors looks at the balancing of work and family and time for relaxation, the gym and so on. A whole new way of taking care of patients is taking shape that may promote better health of doctors themselves, better balancing the demands and stress in their lives from family members and their own personal needs for relaxation and exercize.

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Shellye Archambeau talks about lessons she learned. She had a unique approach to mentors- find a mentor but do not ask directly whether he will mentor you, instead simply act like he is your mentor, ask questions and cultivate the relationship. This is because most people think mentoring is a committment and will take a lot of time which they consider scarce. Suggestions include: to ask someone have you any thoughts on how...? to get people's idea on doing something. She suggests being sincere and acting on it, and thanking that person, as a great way to get them to respond in the future. Getting people to believe they want to do something is importnt and getting them to believe that it can be done, is a great way to get people inspired to achieve new things. Reducing fear, while all the time being clear about what is expected, produces the best results.Taking risks, venturing out into the unknown, is part of all this because only by getting out and doing new things when you still feel you are not 100% ready, can one learn, grow and create value....

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Washington Post editorial on the Obama Georgetown speech of April 13, 2009. It questions whether President Obama has the candour and courage to tackle the tough issues of deficit reduction and entitlement reform. New healthcare spending for coverage itself will add to entitlement, and it says some of the savings mentioned by the President are phony or already needed for new spending for the economic recovery and health care. At the same time the paper gives Obama good marks for his clarity and grasp of the crisis and steps for recovery, and the policy agenda in the areas of health care, energy and education. The questions about courage and candor also raise all the questions about facing upto the facts about insolvent banks that Krugman, Rosenfeld, the Economist and others have raised. Is Obama dodging the hard choices, is he dithering? On the toughest issues like foreclosures, insolvent banks, global regulation pushed by the Europeans, will he end up making inadequate or faulty choices, and when he comes around to making the tough choices, will he have lost so much valuable time as to prolong the crisis and stretch it out to many years....

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Toyota reported a 77% drop in earnings in the first quarter of 2011, with a large loss in the Japanese operations. The strong yen trading at 81 yen to the dollar is a significant factor. And for the first time Toyota's CFO Satoshi Ozawa said "we have reached the limits of profitable Japan based production at 80 yen to the dollar." Japanese operatios lost $2.4 billion. Honda reported a 38% drop in earnings for the 1st quarter.

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Romer, Geithner and Summers, the economic team of the Obama administration. forecast a jobless rate rising above 8% in 2009 and peaking at 9% in 2010. It is 9.4% in June 2009. The gap is equivalent to a loss of 2.5 million more jobs. The stimulus helped but it takes time for it to show results, and for it to make adifference in the jobless rate. A more realistic approach to the forecast would be better says Leonhardt.

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Friedman in Greenland and Cpenhagen, Denmark and energy conservation in the region. With about 50% of people riding bicycles at evening rush hour in Copenhagen and high energy and gasoline taxes putting gasoline at $10 a gallon and Demarke 99% energy sufficient. There is a new perspective on high gas prices, this time its acceptable and even a good thing as promoting conservation, all the way down to 2 gear toilets that flush differently and conserve water in Greenland.

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Andrew Stuttaford's excellent review of a book on the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany. In early 2010, the out of print book, "When Money Dies," by Adam Fergusson was trading for four figure sums. It describes life under hyperinflation in Germany and the events leading to it, the efforts to find a solution, and the collapse of the German economy with the worldwide great depression. The book describes the death of the German mark, with 20 marks needed to buy one British pound in 1914, going to 310 billion in late 1923! The story starts with the onset of war in 1914, and the fateful German decision to fund the war effort largely through debt and the printing presses. What exacerbated the situation was the relatively shallow capital markets in Germany, the creation of 'loan banks' funded by a printing press used by the central bank, and the muffling of all information. The stock markets were closed during the war and foreign exchange rates were not published. The destruction of the war, revolution, protests, imposition of reparations by the victorious powers, and terrotorial occupation worsened the situation. The efforts of central bank president, Rudolf Havenstein, to prevent mass unemployment by devaluing the currency to keep exports competitive, worked only for a time. In the end, says Fergusson, the music stopped. Lacking a reliable pricing mechanism and faced with huge strains, including the onset of the worldwide depression, the whole German economy stopped functioning at even the most basic level. The whole economy was reduced to barter. Rent was payed with butter and lumps of coal were bartered for something else. The only time an economy was reduced to barter in recent times (in the last 2 decades) was the situation in Argentina after a sharp devaluation. The Russian economy also faced a trying period in recent years with the collapse of communism and a collapse of the currency. And the Asian economies faced a difficult period during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. But nothing compares with what happened in Weimar Germany. The book was originally written for a British audience at a time of rapid inflation in the 1970's, and it reminded readers of the connection between the quantity of money in circulation and price stability. Financial crises play out in different ways in different periods, but it is a sobering warning for the need for prudence in financial affairs, avoiding excesses, the need for global cooperation and a measure of peaceful coexistence in world affairs that enables financial systems to work. With excesses in asset bubbles of the stock market or housing kind, bad loans in the financial system, overleveraging in the financial system, lack of reserves, or huge trade deficits, posing the new types of risks in today's environment. Bad loans in the financial system caused problems in Japan in the past and pose risks in China today, overleveraging caused problems in the US in 2008, lack of reserves in S. Korea in 1997, a collapse of the currency in Russia in the 1990's, and a sharp devaluation with a lack of reserves in Argentina. Too much money in the system, as in China today with the sharp increase in bank lending as part of the stimulus following the 2008 crisis, can distort the functioning of the financial system with excesses in real estate speculation and overproduction. The nature of the crises are different but all have a common factor of tolerance for excesses over a long period and a lack of prudence, exacerbated by international tensions and wars that weaken a country's finances. The twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are estimated to cost a trillion dollars each and this can only exacerbate the finances in the US, when coupled with other factors such as bad real estate loans in the financial system, and huge trade deficits....

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China's economy is feeling the effects of a sharp slowdown of the economy with covid lockdowns in 2022 and the Ukraine crisis undermining confidence in China. Internal divisions on president Xi's policies of allying with Russia on Ukraine are shown in this report by the WSJ. China faces a collapse of its relationship with the US and Europe says the WSJ. With it China's economic growth faces a sharp slowdown.  From 18% at the beginning of 2021 economic growth has slowed down to 4% in fourth quarter of 2021. The current situation in Ukraine and Mr. Xi's response create risks of collateral damage for Chinese manufacturers with weakening global demand, says the WSJ. Deng Xiaoping's policy of opening China which happened for the last 40 years is being reversed with Mr. Xi's policies and the stance taken by the Biden administration is supported by the US Congress by both Republicans and Democrats.  This WSJ report points out that premier Li Keqiang has pointed to the risks China is facing in somber tones calling the external environment for China in 2022 "more complex and severe." At the same time Hu Wei a senior adviser to the State Council stirred up discussion online with an article about Mr. Xi's pro-Russian policy, saying "China can't be tied to Putin and the ties need to be cut off as soon as possible."  ...

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The title is misplaced- does India have an edge with development in Uttar Pradesh after many administrations since Jawaharlal Nehru's time in his home city of Allahabad. Can water and electricity, Jal Jeevan and Swacch Bharat (Clean India) make a difference in India's largest state. Is development for all impartially given, funds impartially allocated indifference shown to caste and religious lines for delivery of services by the state and federal governments? India and China were at about the same place in 1990 as both countries opened up- can India close the gap. Can Indians stretch the imagination to set stretch goals like China has done. Most of the Indians who fail to stretch the imagination fail to remember that Beijing was mostly filled with bicycles for transport during 1990. China remained undaunted in 1990, she persevered against all the odds. So must India. In the US and European Union competition with China it looks to India for restructuring the supply chain. Is Uttar Pradesh a good place for domestic and foreign investment? Water and electricity goals are being achieved in Uttar Pradesh. Fundamental to development is the rule of law, as this sets the basis for development. Adequate infrastructure, a clean India, is what creates a good climate for investment from outside the state and from other countries such as Japan, the US and Germany. Uttar Pradesh now has the potential to lead the way.    ...

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As David Calhoun steps down from Boeing following the stepping down of the previous CEO Muilenberg, both for quality issues at Boeing this report in Yahoo Finance by Allan Sloan shows the effects of the accounting training and lack of awareness and conviction to put Quality uppermost. Calhoun joined GE at the time when Jack Welch was running the company. The book by David Gelles looked at Welch's period at GE with concern because of the use of accounting methods and finance businesses to make results look better- "How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland, and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America." Over the decades in which one sees American manufacturing neglected one also sees the rise of executives in finance who ran companies in America that showed little interest in the hard work of manufacturing and surrendered leadership to first Japan and then China. Boeing CEO Calhoun is shown as another of the CEO's from GE who trained  under Welch who joined Boeing and other companies.The adjoining video in WSJ points this out after the Alaska Airlines incident and other incidents of flawed plane design and manufacturing- the basic problem being a lack of Quality and Worker and Quality practices Friendly Culture at Boeing. WSJ says three layers of quality checks are essentially worthless without a emphasis on worker training, on quality culture, cost cutting to get planes out the door, and lack of investment in Quality Control and Inspection. ...

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The Labour party's support for not withdrawing from the European Medicines Agency is the subject of an argument after Prime Minister's Questions in the British parliament. Labour leader Keir Starmer confronts prime minister Boris Johnson in parliament after Johnson reminds Labour that it had on repeated occasions called for the UK not to withdraw from the European Medicines Agency.  The UK vaccination drive is far ahead of the vaccination drive in European Union countries including France and Germany, because of British initiative in boldly betting money on vaccine supplies with pharmaceutical companies, and earlier approval by the UK health regulatory authority. Here is the comment in the House of Commons by Boris Johnson- "If we had listened to (Starmer), we would still be at the starting blocks because he wanted to stay in the European Medicines Agency and said so four times from that dispatch box." Starmer disputes the statement. The Times cites Hansard, the official record of the House of Commons. It records that Starmer questioned why Britain would want to withdraw from the Medicines Agency in Jan. 2017. In 2018 Labour party supported an Amendment to the Trade Bill that called for the UK to seek participation in the European Medicines Agency. Germany, Spain and France are hit hard by the second wave of the coronavirus and the lack of adequate vaccine supplies is causing grief in European Union. The EU president Von der Leyen, another European Union style bureaucrat, seen as having bungled the handling of vaccine supply. ...

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A lot that is wrong at Apple and Tim Cook's responsibility for putting profits over national interest in not preserving but destroying American manufacturing. All the talk about design is a smokescreen for dismally letting down American communities that relied on American industrial ingenuity. Tim Cook started the process of sending America's industrial manufacturing base to China in 1998 with an elaborate plan that has been put into effect over 2 decades. Some of this I saw with my own eyes in the period just before Jobs returned in 1997, on a trip as Japanese manufacturing methods consultant at Apple's Colorado Springs Plant. Apple's failure since 2016 to correct this overconcentration of manufacturing in one place is one of the major failures for America in the first decades of the 21st century. Apple's success in profit margins was bought at a price that is too high for the communities and towns that depended on manufacturing across America during the 20th century- it has a spiralling effect as other companies followed Apple leading to the shipping out of America's entire industrial base. Creating risks of international conflict as this entire process was allowed to happen by administrations of Bush and Obama that have failed America in unimaginable ways with foreign wars, and neglect of American workers. DJT, Biden who retained DJT policy, and DJT second term are only now correcting these serious mistakes and American business shortsightedness. ...

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With a democratically elected government not the real power in Pakistan and most power resting in the army and spy agency, India-Pakistan negotiations are going nowhere at this time. More tension in Kashmir and Afghanistan complicates the situation.

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Conde Nast, Hearst, Meredith which publishes Better Homes and Gardens, News Corporation, and Time inc. have joined together to develop software that would create digital publications for iphones, e-readers, and arange of devices. The idea is to have astorefront much like Apple's iTunes. Individually these companies are also working on digital software. Conde nast is working with Adobe to develop software for advanced e-readers. Hearst has astartup called Skiff. Media companies already own sakes in Hulu which streams television programmes from three of America's four English language broadcasters.

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If the wording in the Pew Research Survey were to include that only the government can tackle huge problems in climate change, infrastructure, and manufacturing, the over 50% of Americans that support government taking on these responsibilities might just as well be closer to 60-70 percent. The tide is turning as the whole culture since Reagan and the key adopters of Reagan's theory  successive Democratic administrations of Clinton and Obama is being reversed- Democrats and Independents supporting the change to get government to tackle these problems is up 15 percentage points. Another shift is the young people who are filled with frustration by the lack of government taking on a bigger role to solve problems such as climate change, manufacturing jobs in US, infrastructure rebuilding that only the government can do. 

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The deterioration in the Irish banking crisis. An additional 13 billion euros will be needed by Irish banks to pay bad real estate debt, after this round of stress tests in March 2011, according to Ireland's Central Bank. This is on top of the 85 billion euros rescue package after collapse of the banks, and the 10 billion euros given by the EU and the IMF. Some estimates say the cost of the banking bust could reach $140 billion for a country with GDP of $241 billion. Ireland's interest payments on debt are estimated to rise to 13% of government revenues by 2012. Serious calls are being made for bondholders to share in the losses as the crisi escalates. Daniel Gros, Director of the Center of European Policy Studies, says policymakers in Europe saw the experience of Lehman Brothers and do not want to see a repeat of that experience at any cost. The weak banks in Germany and other lender countries are too politically connected in his view to be allowed to fail. German banks hold $62 billion in Irish Greek and Portuguese debt and French banks hold $26 billion. Hypo Real Estate, taken over by the German government, holds $14.5 billion of this debt. Bank assets in Europe are a larger share of the national economies in Europe than in the U.S. making the situation more intractable- In Britain over 3.5 times the economy, Ireland 2.5 times, in Netherlands 4.4 times, in France 3.25 times, in Spain 2 times and in Germany 1.5 times GDP, compared to 60% of GDP in the U.S. After the Irish government decided to guarantee the debt of its banks two years ago, Irish taxpayers are stuck with the entire cost of bad debt at the Irish banks....

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President Trump reset the border debate after the government shutdown on border wall funding by emphasizing immigration issues but not repeating his threat to call an emergency. This time he was more conciliatory on the border wall issue, explaining that it be " a smart, strategic, see through steel barrier, not just a simple concrete wall," and deployed in areas identified by border agents as having the greatest need. On withdrawal from Middle East, the president said "great nations do not fight endless wars." Trump now faces a rocky second half of his term because Democrats control the House of Representatives after the 2018 Congressional elections. He said "if there is going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be a war and investigation." He faces the Mueller investigation by Special Counsel Mueller on the meddling by foreign powers in U.S. 2016 presidential election, with the arrest of lawyer Roger Stone recently, and Democrats in no mood to compromise on the wall. ...

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David Axelrod's take on the battle with Republicans on the stimulus package. Axelrod says Washington DC talks to itself and whips itself into a frenzy with its own theories, that are completely at odds with what the rest of America is thinking. Cable TV can be misleading he suggests, and its almost like living in a parallel universe. This happened he says before the Iowa primary, and situations like this ocurred after some of Hillary Clinton's primary wins, and before the election when the Hillary vote was expected to go to McCain. In each situation people counted Obama out, and were living in a parallel universe where they believed what they were saying to the exclusion of everything else.

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The critical variable in knowing whether lockdowns of cities and countries are working is called the coronavirus RO, or reproduction ratio. This ratio measures the average number of people infected by a carrier A. It could be that he infects 1 person at work and transport call it B people , or in large gatherings call it C people he infects 2 persons, or in other surroundings such as restaurants he infects 1 person call it D people. The people A has infected B+C+D are the ones now not infected by A with the lockdowns such as in New York, Italy, Germany, UK and France. It is determined by global health experts that the number of B+C+D is about an average of 4 persons infected by 1 person A with coronavirus, though it may be much higher in practice in some areas. The natural rate of RO or reproduction ratio is considered by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to be 3.86 or about 4, if no lockdown or social distancing or other prevention is practiced. This in a situation where people behaved as before unaware that the virus was around them. Governments such as New York and France, UK, Germany are including this key variable in their determination of how long a lockdown lasts, and for determining if the reopening is not going the right way or failing. In such situations the lockdown would be reinstated, or if it is a phased reopening such as in the U.S. and other countries go back to the previous phase. In Italy and Germany the RO reproduction ratio for coronavirus is estimated by official experts at 0.8. Germany's RO estimated by the Robert Koch Institute and Italy's by Franco Locatelli, scientific advisor to the government. In New York the margin is thin- with RO of 0.9, estimate from the state's governor. In France which has one of the tightest lockdowns of all with a document required to go outside it is at 0.6, the figure coming from the prime minister Mr. Philippe. In the UK it is below 1.0 but no accurate figure is reported. As Dr. Birx- leading the coordinated response in the U.S. - emphasizes over and over again this is a very contagious virus, about which not much is known. Social distancing, wearing masks, basic prevention measures such as frequent handwashing, and not gathering in large numbers of people, is essential for defeating this virus. This has to be followed up with extensive testing and contact tracing to win this fight.   ...

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This editorial in the Economist magazine says China should should adopt capital controls till the situation stabilizes, and not manage the value of its currency. This would give financial institutions in China time to adapt to the new situation. It sees this a a necessary retreat from market principles, but one that is temporary for the special situation it faces in 2016 of making a transition away from the old model of development and problems it created.

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Marc Lynch of the George Washington University Institute for Middle East Studies, says the U.S. should close its embassy in Cairo, and sever ties with the military government in Egypt. The policies of the Obama administration showing ambivalence towards the movement for democracy in the region has hurt U.S. credibility even as the U.S. media and people have supported the positive developments away from military run governments. The damage done will take a long time to repair.

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The Fed and FDIC issue a report on the failure to regulate SVB and Signature bank. It says the failure to regulate stems from the law passed by Congress leaving a gap for regulation of mid sized banks, and the appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed supervisory position by then president Trump in 2019. The result was a 40% decline in hours spent by supervisory regulators on the SVB bank even as its assets grew rapidly. Overall the supervisory hours for the Federal Reserve system as a whole declined. This led to cultural issues under Mr. Trump where less regulation the better was the prevailing attitude. Fed report in Fedspeak says- "Staff felt a shift in culture and expectations from internal discussions and observed behaviour that changed how regulation was executed." It would take a special effort by the Biden administration to bring the situation under control to keep the nation's banking system healthy and strong to support the investments the economy needs. After the 2009 crisis and the decade lost to the US economy and the American people from losses in unemployment and savings as a result of deregulated banks, another crisis was prevented. This time the Fed, FDIC, General Accountability Office are all clear about the value and role of regulation in a properly functioning economy, instead of the pushback after the 2009 crisis to regulation. Once again president Biden has shown the way.   ...

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This report in WSJ takes a detailed look at how the shift to digital payments, and digital badges for covid free designation on smartphones are affecting a part of the population of 60+ years that is notinternet or smartphone savy.  60+ years make up only 10% of the users of internet on age based graph, even though they are a large part of China's rapidly aging population, estimated to be closer to 20% of the population or about 250 million. Elderly people in China are having a hard time with scanning of health codes to access transport and other services. To tackle the covid pandemic China has health codes assigned to citizens which link user national ID and Covid status. These need to be scanned in for access to train and transport facilities and other services, color coded digital badges on smartphones that show one is covid free.  Most elderly cannot handle these smartphone tasks because they lack the skills of young people with smartphones or lack the digital payments having used cash all their life. Other problems are poor eyesight, health problems, but the most severe is a big skills handicap in downloading apps, in typing quickly, and in navigating the internet. The government is taking steps to provide relief for the elderly by prohibiting places of services from refusing to accept cash, and finding ways to make the health codes system work for seniors. ...

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Changing governments and loss of the vision of the labor movement in the early decades after independence has led Israel to this impasse. Benny Gantz of the wartime Unity government calls for new elections in September as demonstrations for a new government take place in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. US president Biden tells Netanyahu on Thursday that US support hinges on treatment of civilians in Gaza. Biden says he "outraged and heart broken" at the airstrikes on aid workers vehicles in Gaza. Gantz, a former general and prime minister of Israel, said- “This agreed-upon date for elections will leave us time to continue the security effort, and it will allow Israeli citizens to know that we will soon need to renew the trust between us,” he told a news conference. “It will prevent the rupture among the people.”  One of the problems Israel faces is the political fragmentation, many parties and frequent elections leading to changes in government unlike the early decades after independence when the Labor party offered effective leadership. The social Labor and agriculture farms movement is how Israel started and prime ministers till 1980's were from this Labor and farms movement including David Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir. As Israel evolved into a more technology oriented state this aspect was lost leading to a great measure of inequality, and changing governments without a clear vision for the future.   ...