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A Forecast With Hope Built In

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Romer, Geithner and Summers, the economic team of the Obama administration. forecast a jobless rate rising above 8% in 2009 and peaking at 9% in 2010. It is 9.4% in June 2009. The gap is equivalent to a loss of 2.5 million more jobs. The stimulus helped but it takes time for it to show results, and for it to make adifference in the jobless rate. A more realistic approach to the forecast would be better says Leonhardt.


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