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Analysts see the likelihood of Greece exiting the eurozone at over 50%. The actions of the ECB under Mario Draghi to provide funding to weak banks through the Long Term Financing Operation have reduced the effect the effects of contagion from a Greek default spreading to banks in other EU countries. The fiscal pact signed in Jan 2012 at the EU summit with automatic penalties for countries lacking budget discipline provides Angela Merkel more room with her domestic political base to support the EFSF's capacity to help other eurozone countries. Greece with its deteriorating economic situation would then be considered a special case.

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The Journal editorial title suggests that Greece chose economic decline. It puts the responsibility for this choice on one political party that lied about its fiscal position, and another party that failed to take strong action. The government unions were uncooperative and resisted making changes. Making matters worse was policy from the EU that misread the Greece situation as a liquidity problem, and not as a solvency problem considering the huge debt Greece has piled up. And austerity measures pushed by the EU are doing little for growth- leading to an acceleration in the economic decline in recent months.

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Without creditor agreement to release bailout funds Greece will not be able to make the $763 million payment to the IMF on May 12, 2015. Financial markets face uncertainty about the outcome of negotiations. In this report Landon Thomas Jr. describes meetings between debt lawyer Bucheit and the Greece finance minister Varoufakis, who are handling the negotiations with the EU and the IMF.

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This editorial in the WSJ says Obama's silence when it comes to the jailed opposition leader in Malaysia is one more silence when it comes to issues related to suppression of democratic freedoms. When this issue was raised in June the WSJ reports it drew the Obama comment: "democracy is hard." This is all the more astounding now says the Journal, after the WSJ report about corruption in the Najib Razak government related to the $700 million from a state owned investment bank. This editorial says about the record of the Obama administration on going silent when issues of freedom and suppression have come up from Iran in 2009 to many other events and Malaysia today- that this is one of the most puzzling aspects of the Obama presidency. It also points out this is is one of the most discouraging aspects of how the U.S. is seen in the world under the Obama presidency, when it comes to protecting freedom and freedom of speech and expression.

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A plan to postpone a 21% cut in payments to doctors for treating Medicare patients, and instead give a slight payment increase under a House proposal, at a total cost of $245 billion over 10 years, is raising questions about the the impact on the USA budget deficit in coming years. The Congressional Budget Ofice says the House health bill will increase the deficit by $239 billion by 2019. In past years the lawmakers in Congress have postponed the implementation of these cuts, and the administration would like to see this as a separate item and not showing increasing the deficit. The American Medical Association lobbied to have this provision in exchange for its support to the health care plan.

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The Census Bureau reports that 46.2 million Americans were living in poverty in 2010. This is an increase of 2.6 million over 2009. This is the highest number of Americans living in poverty since 1958, when this statistic was first measured. Poverty is defined for 2010 as income at or below $22,314 for family of four. Also relevant is the median household income which went down to $49,445 in 2010, a decline of 2.3% from 2009. The typical household earned less in 2010 than in 1997, in inflation adjusted terms. The Census Bureau reports 16.3% of Americans had no health insurance coverage in 2010, the same as 2009.

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Prof. Calomiris of Columbia University, says the U.S. Federal Reserve should increase the cash reserve requirement for U.S. banks to prevent a surge in inflation. He points out that excesss reserves at banks stand at about $1.5 trillion. He suggests the Fed should take early action to prevent a jump in lending and credit creation- a pattern seen in the past after several years of dampened credit and lending.

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Serious doubts remain about the effectiveness of value at risk or VAR quant models used by JP Morgan Chase to measure potential losses on a trade on a bad day. A newer model used by Chase in the first quarter showed smaller losses. When the old model was run this trade showed double the losses according to Chase managers. Greenberger, a former CFTC official and a professor at the University of Maryland School of Law, says if the trade become hard to unwind it shows poor risk management. And experts say it is not much of a hedge if it is done in an obscure part of credit markets and hard to unwind without serious losses. Peter Tchir, a former head of index trading at RBS bank, says CEO Dimon must have seen these kinds of hedges as part of his overall strategy, which is why he supported them in April 2012. The problem lies in that the bank size has grown to such proportions that its simply too big to manage, with trades it has to make becoming massive as a consequence.

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Ali Gomaa, the grand mufti of Egypt, gives his ideas on Articles 2 of the 1971 Constitution (which established Islam as the religion of the state), and Article 7 of the interim Constitution (which guarantees equal citizenship before the law, regardless of religion). As head of Egypt's agency of Islamic jurisprudence, he gives his assurance to the West and to Egyptians, that the religious establishment of Egypt and he personally, is committed to tolerance and popular sovereignty that respects the rights of all citizens. He points to Egypt's tradition of a moderate and tolerant view of Islam. He says that Egypt threw out the heavy hand of authoritarian rule after many years and is not about to replace this with another type of authoritarian rule based on Islam. Islam's place in Egypt he argues, will be similiar to state churches in Denmark, and England, and similiar to Islam as the national religion in secular states like Tunisia and Jordan. The kind of Islam he sees for Egypt, in his words, is that of freedom and tolerance....

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Mouhanad Khorchide, is professor of Islamic pedagogy at the University of Munster in Germany. He is offering an innovative approach to teach a gentler and more tolerant Islam as Germany shifts to the teaching of Islam in primary and secondary schools, alongside teaching of the Christian and Jewish faiths. He is the author of the book published in Arabic and as an e-book in English- "Islam in Mercy." He goes back to the open discourse in the Islam of the eight and ninth centuries for ideas, asking questions and seeing this as part of the discourse in the educational process. He is a Palestinian who studied sociology at the University of Vienna. Germany has 4 million Muslims.

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Ignazio Angeloni heads the financial supervisory authority setup by EU leaders in 2013 inside the European Central Bank. The NYT's Danny Hakim's interview with Angeloni on the task facing Angeloni and the ECB as it takes on supervision of all EU banks.

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Germany's social-affairs minister, Ursula von der Leyden, presents the "fourth poverty and wealth report," in March 2013. The issue of inequality is arousing public sentiment in Germany with this becoming an election issue along with the euro crisis and energy reform. The term Gerechtigkeit means "justice" in German and is associated with the idea of equality. The Social Democrats Party and the Greens talk about this in terms of "social scissors" opening wider. The Minder Initiative which passed in Switzerland enabling shareholders to restrict executive pay has led to public discussion in Germany for a similiar approach to be adopted by Germany. The ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU) of Angela Merkel and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) party are different from other parties in Europe because of their Catholic and Lutheran roots which favor social solidarity. The FDP party in the ruling coalition supports free market principles but lacks popular support. The Economist cites the work of the German think tank DIW on inequality, which shows inequality showing sharp rise after German reunification around 1991, especially in East Germany. The situation moderates with improvements in inequality in East Germany and a slight improvement in West Germany after 2005. Both East and W. Germany have moved up overall in the Ginni coefficeint which measures inequality from about 0.4 in 1991 to about 0.5 in 2010, showing that the situation has stabilized at a higher level of inequality. Part of this could be because of the shift to temporary workers at lower wages about this time as German industry made efforts to keep wages down and improve competitiveness, even as overall conditions in the economy improved in the last decade. The Economist cites another study by the Initiative for a New Social Market Economy, a German think tank, which compares Germany with other members of the OECD. Germany ranks closer to Scandinavian countries in seventh place in this study, but does poorly in equal oportunities with 14th place. Germany lags behind other OECD and European countries in opportunities for women to work full time. Germany lacks enough daycare facilities for small children so that their mothers can work full time. There is a shortage of about 150,000 for preschool daycare openings in Germany, acccording to information cited by Deutsche Welle from government sources....

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Kristof reminds readers of the NYT that the more that the British acted to suppress the American insurgents, the more that fueled the insurgents fighting the British. After all the land they were on was theirs they felt and not Britain's. The same is true for the $0 million Pastuns on both sides of the border, the Afghan side and the Pakistan side. He says Americans are not sensitive enough to nationalism abroad. The war in Afghanistan is costing $60 billion ayear. Adding another 40,000 troops will cost $10 billion, enough to send 2 million disadvantaged children to a solid preschool, or could be as high as $40 billion extra, which over 10 years would pay for almost half of health care reform. Kristof doesn't see the 40,000 troops doing enough to change the picture much, except increasing support for Taliban as the American footprint grows as foreign occupiers. He mentions that standard counterinsurgency ratios of troops to civilians would require 650,000 troops including Afghans.

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What happens to the 70,000 residents of Anacostia, near the Capitol in Washington DC where a third of the people live in poverty and there is a 40% dropout rate, and only 8% of all students there attend college. Vacant homes, drug use and crime sap the neighborhood here. Obama said he would bring 20 cities an antipoverty program successful in Harlem, New York that would include parenting and infant care classes, as well as early childhopod education and free medical care for children. An investment of $1 billion for 5 years for a transitional jobs program, to place the unemployed in temporary jobs. The Obama transition team did not return requests seeking comment on the 20 city plan or the $1 billion for transitional jobs, says the WSJ on January 20, 2008, the day of the inauguration. Its incredible that right in the nation's capital there exists another Washington DC of such neighborhood decline within sight of the Capitol.