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On June 30, 2008, oil prices hit an high of $140. Because of the opaqueness of the oil futures markets that help set the price of oil, very little is known about the different players in that market. Because of increasing demands for public scrutiny of such spikes in the market and its effect on the economy, the CFTC has released information about the players in oil trading and futures markets. This list for the period when the prices reached $140 in June 2008 include banks, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, private investment arms of wealthy individuals, and airlines. Investments related to million barrels of oil were made by 219 investors. The banks include: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley which have played a role in oil markets for a long time. BP and Delta Air Lines as users of oil products. It includes Yale University endowment fund, Singapore's government, hedge funds Brevan Howard and D.E. Shaw & Co., pension funds for Texas teachers, Cascade Investment LLC (the investment firm of Bill Gates), and the Danish pension fund ATP....

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Next to what Brzail is doing under President Da Silva with a program to aid the poorest in Brazil pay for food and necessities, this program is a commendable one and could turn ou to be a big achievement as it becomes popular with the poorest people in India. It certainly will be true over the next 5-10 years that by improving the conditions of the poorest 300 million people it will go a long way towards creating and enhancing the conditions throughout India, and bring millions of people who could become new markets for the nation's consumer and other companies. The task of providing better nutrition along with hospital care could also be tackled with similar programs and also schooling so that the lives of the next generation can be significantly improved and children do not have to live the drudgery and difficult lives of their parents who are struggling for a living. Important thing is for a small cost of $1 billion people it carries the whole nation and its poorest 300 million people forward....

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For the first time coordinated rate cuts of half a percentage point by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England. Yet markets in the swung wildly on Tuesday, October 7, 2008, opening down 200 points then up 200 points after a 500 point drop on the previous day Monday. Asian markets got hammered with steep selloffs as the crisis showed no signs of abating. Previously the ECB had resisted lowering rates saying the crisis was more of an American one with secondary effects in Europe, but the squeeze in the credit markets in Europe and the same fears of banks refusing to lend to one another ocurred in Europe over the last few days so the ECB has reconsidered its view. Meantime emerging markets like Russia and Brazil and other countries are getting hammered. Most Asian markets had already closed by the time the coordinating central banks had acted, Japan's Nikkei declining b 9.4% in its worst one day loss since 1987 and the Hong Kong Hang Seng went down by 8.2%.

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There is a sharp decline in investor confidence in Greece as the Syriza Party leads in polls in Dec. 2014, with a 3-6 point lead over New Democracy Party of prime minister Samaras. There was a sharp selloff on the Athens stock exchange and yields on Greece's 10 year government bonds went up to 8.5% by Dec. 11, 2014. The government needs 180 votes for a presidential election vote in parliament. The outcome is uncertain and could lead to early parliamentary elections on Jan 25, 2015, with Syriza a potential winner. Syriza had taken a strong line on Greece's debt in 2012 elections, including a possible debt default. It now says it is willing to renegotiate and maintain relations with IMF, EU and the ECB creditors to Greece. In fact, Syriza leader Tsipras has met with ECB chief Draghi, former ECB official Joerg Asmussen of Germany, and Greece's central bank chief. Syriza has changed its party promises to reflect its move to the mainstream- such as not offering to hire back workers or make tax relief measures apart from specific ones, only insisting on freezing public sector layoffs and reversing minimum wage cuts. The EU programs for Greece lapse on 28, Feb. 2015, and an EU official say it is important that Syriza agree to a program following that date to reassure financial markets....

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A new once daily ICE train takes one from Gare de'l Est in Paris to Berlin Hauptbahnhof in 8 hours leaving at about 10 and in Berlin by 6 pm. It goes through Frankfurt South, Karlsruhe, and Strasbourg. The cost ranges from $26 to $104 one way. It is run by SNCF and Deutsche Bahn. Deutsche Bahn known for delays with only 60% of it's trains on time plans to do better in 2025 with a goal of 75% on time performance. The train brings the two nations closer.

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After campus protests on Gaza the US government to prevent antisemitism on campus took action to see that campus police can prevent student unrest. Columbia University president resigned and Katrina Armstrong was made interim president. Columbia lost $400 million in federal funding of the $1 billion it gets each year. Armstrong made an agreement with the US government last week to get strong campus police enforcement and after explaining this to faculty resigned. An Turkish activist on the Tufts University campus on student visa had her visa revoked and was flown to Louisiana to be expelled this week.

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About 2.6 million eligible to vote people in Michigan and 3.5 million in Pennsylvania, and 1.3 million in Wisconsin did not vote in the 2016 election. The critical states this time are also Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and these three states went to the winner by less than 10,000 in Michigan, 20,000 in Wisconsin and 50,000 in Pennsylvania.  A NYT analysis of Census Bureau data for 2016 election reveals that most of these people who are eligible but do not vote have lost interest in both parties that show little interest in delivering for them. Many of them are shown to be lower income voters, voters doing 2 jobs, or voters struggling financially. Some are single child parents in today's social structures. Getting a small portion of this vote can make a difference in a close election.  From 1840 to 1900 the percent of voting age population that voted has been between 70 to 80%. By the 1920's this dropped to about 50%. And it has been around 55% since the period of the Great Depression except for elections in 1952 and 56 for General Eisenhower and 1960 for John Kennedy. Even Harry Truman's whistlestop train campaign in 1948 got only 51% out to vote. Even the Roosevelt FDR three campaigns in 1932, 1936 and 1940 got 52-58% of voting age population to vote. The highest of any election was the election that led to the Civil War in which Lincoln won where 81% of the voting age population voted. Is it possible that America was a relatively much more prosperous country in the period 1840-1900 before large scale immigration from poorer parts of Europe and then poorer parts of Latin America and Asia, and large scale urbanization. With ample land and independent farmers in the nineteenth century leaving less scope for the poverty that exists in urban areas and social decay in rural areas and small towns that is seen today. Resulting in a much more civic consciousness and awareness of America's future and destiny than exists today. By comparison voter turnout in India has increased to 66% in 2014 election and 67% in 2018 after alternating high and low between 50-60% since 1947. Some forecasts are for a high turnout in the U.S. in 2020 to exceed 60%. The bright side for democracy is shown by the 911 million people who voted in the last Indian election of 2018. ...

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The new president of India Droupadi Murmu is from the state of Odisha, formerly called Orissa. She is from a tribal community in the state and brings a new face for development through "sab ka vikas sab ke sath" new India's slogan today of development for all Indians through their own efforts, as it brings to the forefront the tribal communities all over India. The tribal communities in India have a population of 106 million or about 9% of India's population. In Orissa percentage of tribal is over 25%, in most of the northeast it is at least 25%, and in borders areas with China Arunachal 70%, Sikkim 34%, Jammu & Kashmir 12%. In key states of Madhya Pradesh 20%, Gujarat 25%, Rajasthan 13%. The strategic nature of the decision for the unity of India can be seen on how the tribal communities are critical parts of the northeast, the border areas,  and even of the central, eastern and western regions of India which most people are not aware of. Bringing in the tribal communities through respected leaders is part of the unfinished work of Mohandas Gandhi in getting the delivery of services to the last man in the line, and the tribal communities are a forgotten part of this.   ...

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Pope Francis makes atonement for the treatment of 150,000 tribal children from Canada's Indian tribes in Quebec and Ontario. These children were separated from their families in a program of forced assimilation that failed. Indian tribal people and the regions of Quebec and Ontario are only now coming to terms with the treatment of tribal people who inhabited this land for centuries before the first European settlers from Britain and France arrived in North America through the Atlantic ocean voyages. This scene is relevant as India's leaders including Mr. Modi select a tribal woman from Odisha (Orissa) Ms Murmu a school teacher in India's northeast to the position of president of the Republic of India. It was never thought of this way yet tribal people exist in Indonesia, Philippines and many parts of Asia. In India tribe population is 106 million and makes up anywhere between 8 to 30% of population mostly in the northeast and tribes are the dominant population in the border regions facing China in its occupation of Tibetan region. This shows there is a lot to learn in how to respect the dignity of the people in these regions especially now when with climate change  sustainable living is the first priority.  ...

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A look at countries in Europe shows different strategies for tackling coronavirus Delta variant as schools reopen in September 2021. Italy requires all teachers to carry a covid digital certificate that shows vaccination or PCR test results. France, Germany and Spain do not require vaccination for teachers to go to schools, and rely mostly on social distancing and mask requirements in schools. Britain not only does not require vaccination digital certificate, but also has not made masks and social distancing mandatory. Health experts say there are serious risks in this approach with mass return to schools and offices after August 2021, and the fall weather with more time indoors. This could lead to a surge in coronavirus as in the US where the reopening of schools and Delta variant has led to surge particularly in states such as Texas, Florida, California. In UK 65% of total population is now fully vaccinated, in Italy 62%. Teachers in Italy fully support the new rules. In Lombardy region with Milan as the capital, only 300 out of 300,000 workers returned to schools without the green pass, according to regional officials. Britain remains an outlier says this report in the WSJ, taking more risks than is proper at this time, and simply hoping for the best. Not the best strategy in this situation.   ...

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The US budget spending bills were delayed right up to a deadline- when government would lack funds to operate- on March 22. The US Congress had no choice but to agree on passage of the $1.2 trillion funding bill, yet only about half of Republicans 101 Republican House members supported it to pass 286-134. To get it passed at the last minute a 3 day opportunity to go over a 1014 page bill was suspended by two thirds majority. It was decided by senior members of Congress on the Republican side with Biden Democrats in a negotiation between Speaker Mike Johnson and NY Senator Pat Schumer. Additional funding was authorized for border immigration control- the Senate immigration bill that passed 70-30 in the US Senate changes the asylum and parole policies that are the root of the immigration problem at the US border with Mexico, yet it  remains stalled in the House as the Republican nominee for president has blocked it. The border will get 2000 more agents and more detention beds, increase in technology budget by 25% and a cut for State Department of 6%, as a temporary measure. A cutoff of funding for UNRWA refugee relief agency. Additional money was provided for child care programs and education with bipartisan support .  ...

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Egypt plans to tackle the financial crisis after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by increasing natural gas exports by one third. It has the LNG terminals to do this which are underutilized. The LNG could be exported to Asia or Europe at ten times the price buyers in Egypt pay for it. The way this additional natural gas is to be exported is to impose 15% cut in use of natural gas in Egypt similar to what the European Union has done with its 15% mandated reduction. This will then be diverted to LNG terminals. The max temperature for air conditioning is 25 degrees under the new plan and lights are dimmed or shut off after 11 pm in streets, shops and malls.  The war in Ukraine has doubled the price of wheat and other basic food necessities imported from Ukraine and Russia. This put a heavy burden on state finances in Egypt with subsidies on bread and other food for 70 million people out of 102 million people. Investment needs are also affected. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with help as no IMF program has been set. A 14% devaluation of the currency took place in 2022 and another devaluation of the currency is expected. ...

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This Editorial Board article of the WSJ says the EU's embargo on Russian oil raise the cost for Putin's invasion of Ukraine and demonstrate Europe's resolve. The new round of sanctions by EU will ban the imports of Russian oil by sea as well as insurance for shipping companies that transport it globally. About two thirds of Russian oil comes by tanker. Germany and Poland will also stop pipeline oil imports from Russia, only Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia will continue with Russian pipeline oil. The result- an effective embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. How effective is this if Russian oil is rerouted through other countries to reach China, Western Europe and the US? The WSJ says don't underestimate the impact especially when it is combined with the ban on insuring ships that carry Russian oil. The higher insurance rates and costs of shipping will limit Russian oil exports. Europe makes up half of Russian oil exports and WSJ says the rest of the world can't use up all that oil. Russia exported $180 billion of oil in 2021, a large amount of this will no longer be available to Russia to finance the war. ...

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WIth China reluctant to make concessions on agricultural imports at a recent Shanghai meeting of Mr. Lighthizer with Chinese trade representatives, the trade dispute with China has escalated. Mr. Lighthizer had little to show Mr. Trump at a meeting in the WHite House. After a 2 hour meeting Mr. Trump told his advisers that his patience was wearing thin. His response on what the U.S. should do- "tariffs." A tweet was prepared saying U.S. would place import duties of 10% on imports of additional $300 billion in Chinese goods. China responded by lowering its currency value to 7 to the dollar to offset the import duties. China also said it was suspending all agricultural imports of U.S. farm products. The U.S. designating China as a currency manipulator.  The situation today is that there is a level of mistrust between president Xi and his advisers and Mr. Trump and his team. The situation has taken a new turn with China saying the U.S. is supporting protests in Hong Kong. President Trump has stated China is waiting it out to deal with a new administration in Washington. Both sides do not see any solutions till after the U.S. elections in 2020. For China there is also the upcoming 70th anniversary of the People's Republic. ...

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The former president having 81% of the vote for non college educated in the primaries and  small percentage of votes among college educated means that if elected it would be that a whole population of college educated people are being effectively disenfranchised in choosing the government. It means that democracy that took over 200 years to include people with less education and income in selecting a government has moved in 2024 to doing the opposite excluding the educated with all its implications for good government of such a lopsided state of affairs. A recent poll shows 81% of Haley's 250,000 votes in the Republican primary would not vote for the former president. Haley won moderates by 61% to 31%. Trump won those without a college degree by 82% to 13% for Haley. Trump support huge in rural areas, Haley's in the suburbs.This shows how different this Republican party is from that even as recent as 2015. In fact Gallup has found that in 1999 the Democratic party was a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated and in 2024 the Republican party is a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated. Among postgraduate educated the gap was 8 percentage points in 1999 and now has widened to where Democrats have 60% to Republicans 21%. ...

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A former Merrill Lynch banker is shown by WSJ responsible for economic actions leading to economic meltdown in Lebanon. Lebanese currency is worth 2% in relation to the dollar and no state supplied electricity.  For most of the modern period since 1800 this part of the world has represented a place of tranquillity and rule of law. The story of the economic collapse of Lebanon as a result of unscruplous finance at the central bank leading to arrrest of Riad Salameh is told in WSJ. It acts as a reminder and warning that once tranquil places can be dislocated and turned upside down by allowing unscruplous financial dealings in the economic affairs of a Nation, putting too much trust in finance or finance professionals. Trust is easily subverted once placed by the People. It can happen in any part of the world.  It can happen in developed nations as happened during the 2009 financial crisis. A finance professional governor of the central bank of Sri Lanka raised borrowing costs with a unscruplous bond auction in 2005 leading to higher borrowing costs and bankrupting the country. This results in the familiar guardrails for democracy and rule of law collapsing in unpredictable ways leading to disaster.  ...

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Wellstone's unique contribution comes from his effort to work with rural poor and poor white farmers in the tradition of Minnesota Farmers Labor Party. This part of rural roots for the Democratic party since FDR and from the  time of Woodrow Wilson in 1900 was lost by 1980. After 1990 the Republican party set up roots in rural America that continued into the Obama period when the emergence of internet and tech companies as part of Democrats distracted and led to the loss of rural support in addition to the loss of union workers support. Tim Walz is from a rural small town America and bring the Democrats closer to their roots.  Paul Wellstone was  Senator from Minnesota in 1990 from the tradition of Farmers Labor Party in the state, and the period of FDR that followed the Great Depression and continued right into the 1960's with John F. Kennedy. He was for local community organizing during all periods not just campaigns, and public policy. He was educated at UNC and was a professor of political science at Carleton College from 1969 to his election as Senator in 1990.  He died in a plane accident in 2002 during an effort to run for a third term in the Senate.  ...

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Companies with good credit ratings are paying higher interest rates and others are finding it harder to borrow as investors flock to safe Treaury bills and government debt. And in 2009 about $700 billion in debt has to be refinanced. Southwest Airlines needed $400 million partly to cover losses from betting that fuel costs would remain high. It is the only domestic airline with an investment grade rating. It had to pay interest of 10.5%, twice the rate it paid in 2004 to raise $350 million. It is doing the borrowing now because its CFO says it does not know what the credit markets will be like 6 months or a year from now. Corporations borrowed $172.7 billion in the 4th quarter, down from $179.1 billion in the last 3 months of 2007, with businesses trying to borrow ahead of further deterioration in credit markets and overcrowding as the government steps up its borrowing to meet the needs of the $825 billion stimulus spending. Businesses that cannot get the access to the credit as refinancing comes due or find the high interest rates (sometimes approaching 20%) onerous, may not survive. ...

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The major provisions of the Republican House healthcare bill that passed by a vote of 217-213 are- 1. To help people buy insurance coverage the bill offers $2000 to $4000 a year, upto $14,000 a year in credits based mainly on age, reducing them for families making $150,000, individuals making $75,000. 2.  Under the Affordable Care Act insurers cannot charge older Americans more than 3 times for same coverage they offer to younger people, the new bill makes this 5 times. This would increase premiums for older Americans and reduce it for younger Americans. This is the most controversial part of the bill. Older Americans supported the Republican party in the presidential election. 3. The new bill ends Medicaid as an open ended entitlement and places this on a budget with cuts of $880 billion over 10 years. 4. To mollify conservative Republicans a provision allows state to opt out some provisions of the ACA that requires minimum benefits such as maternity care and emergency services. It retains coverage for pre-existing conditions to mollify moderate Republicans. The bill provides states with $138 billion over 10 years to subsidize premiums, provide coverage for pre-existing conditions, mental healthcare and drug addiction. 5. The bill removes the taxes imposed under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on high income people of about $300 billion over 10 years by repealing a payroll tax increase and tax on investment income. This bill and the ACA offer 2 competing visions on healthcare, both bills passed only by a margin of 4-5 votes in the House. The ACA overlooked the impact on premiums causing discontent among middle income Americans. The new bill lets premiums rise for older Americans in order to keep premiums down for other Americans. This shows the many tradeoffs involved and choices being made, and the lack of a consensus on the issue of healthcare in the U.S., becoming a highly politicized issue instead of the way it is treated in western Europe.     ...

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In a closely watched election Mr. Wilders of the far Right in Netherlands gains 20 seats, far behind centre right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of prime minister Rutte who won 33 seats. The Dutch Green party which is strongly pro- Europe went from 4 seats to 14 seats, the Christian Democratic Appeal party gained 19 seats and the pro-European Democrats 66 party also gained 19 seats. In the 150 member parliament Rutte needs 76 seats to form a new coalition government, and he is likely to ally with these other parties to form a new government that supports strongly the European Union. This editorial in the NYT says the people of the Netherlands turned out in large numbers to support pro-European Union parties. Next the focus is on France and Marie Le Pen's challenge from the far Right. Cyber threats from Russia are seen as a way to discredit otherwise strong candidates, and the French government is taking this seriously. Chancellor Merkel said she "was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result," and president Hollande said this was "a clear victory against extremism."  ...

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The 1976 Montreal Olympics initial estimate was $120 million Canadian dollars. It ended up costing $1.6 billion Cdn Dollars after huge cost overruns, long strikes and finishing the work at the last minute using overtime. The roof of the stadium has suffered from poor construction and had expensive repair costs since then. The corruption scandals from the cost overruns and mismanagement of funds, led to investigations. A new Parti Quebecois government was elected in November 1976 following the games on a clean government platform. Mayor Drapeau who had claimed there would be no deficit in the games turned out to be completely wrong. The federal government of Canada distanced itself from the games taking no financial responsibility. In the end it took 3 decades to pay off the debt. And the legacy of the games is that while the city of Toronto, Ontario, could invest in new infrastructure for the city, Montreal found itself financially stretched for decades. The corruption also increased support for the separatist Parti Quebecois, with referendums in 1980 and 1995 to create an independent French speaking country of Quebec. For the referendum in 1995 the separatist PQ party came less than 1% short of winning.  ...

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This Wall Street Journal editorial calls for more transparency in disclosing bad debt problems at Spanish and other European banks. It faults recent and upcoming stress tests of EU banks for not being stringent enough and taking into account adverse scenarios. While Spain's central bank says only 20 billion euros are needed to recapitalize the cajas savings banks, other estimates are much higher. Moody's country report says Spain could need upto 120 billion euros to recapitalize its banks. A big problem is European banks exposure in Spain which is over 700 billion euros as of September 2010- Spanish banks have high exposure in Portugal and German banks have high exposure to Spain.