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Gretchen Morgenson of the Times distills key insights from 633 page report by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Morgenson points to the role of the Federal Reserve in Washington and New York in being as she describes it, defiantly inert and uninterested in controlling the mortgage bubble even when it had grown to enormous proportions.The problem now is that the same Fed has received more regulatory powers under the Dodd-Frank law. The same Fed repeatedly did not exert its authority on predatory lending. Page 94 of the report cites a total of only three institutions referred to prosecutors by the Fed from 2000 to 2006. Page 164 shows why there have been so few prosecutions for mortgage fraud from the bursting of the mortgage bubble. William Black, a former fraud investigator and professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law, says the FBI has received virtually no assistance from the regulators, the banking regulators and the thrift regulators. The report contains some outrageous comments by one of the key players in fueling the mortgage bubble, Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide Financial. Morgenson describes him as a lender that roped unsuspecting borrowers into poisonous loans. Mozilo says in an interview on page 105 that his company prevented "social unrest" by providing loans to 25 million borrowers, many from minority groups. Never mind that this wave of poisonous loans has clogged the arteries of the nation's financial system, and resulted in foreclosures for millions of homeowners, creating a troubled housing market that hobbles the economy. Neil Barofsky, special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, sees further bailouts ahead. He said in a report to Congress in late January 2011: "Unless and until an institution like Citigroup is either broken up, so that it is no longer a threat to the financial system, or a structure put in place that it will be left to suffer the full consequences of its own folly, the prospect of more bailouts willl potentially fuel more bad behaviour with potentially disastrous results." ...

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The cost of fixing the nation's financial system could be around $2.5 trillion with an additional $350 of the second TARP funding and the rest of the money coming from the Federal Reserve through the Fed's ability to print money and from private investors. About $1 trillion of this is to compensate for the lack of issuance of securities backed by consumer loans of $1.2 trillion between 2006 and 2008, so that credit markets can function again like they used to. Another component of the plan is to give banks more government money which they will now be expected to lend to consumers and businesses. But a key feature of the plan much awaited by markets was the bad bank or aggregator bank solution which would enable banks to transfer bad assets to this bank. And on this one Geithner said very little so it was adisappointment for financial markets. Also the plan lacked details and was more broad brush and small on specifics. Another area on which Geithner said little is how the government will tackle rising forecolosures and keep people in their homes, which in turn would help stabilize housing prices. But by building up expectations and offering little of specifics on the bad bank solution Geithner earned withering criticism from Senators Kerry, Shelby, Frank, and others. A former managing director at Morgan Stanley Frank Pallotta, now aconsultant to buyers and sellers of distressed mortgages, says the fundamental problem still is the pricing and the gap between what abank like Chase thinks its mortgage is worth of 75 cents to the dollar and aprospective buyer who thinks its worth 45 cents or 25 cents. This is a huge gap and would be expensive to fill in. A bad bank one analyst says could be very expensive and this is why Geithner acknowledges the goal of setting up a fund of some $1 trillion. ...

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Consumer spending boom is over and when you look at the detail in the government numbers on spending consumer spending is already declining. So the idea that consumer stocks like P&G, J&J and Coca Cola and Kimberly Clark will hold up better than other stocks is a mirage. Just this week the idea that stocks of companies doing a lot of business overseas and in infrastructure will hold up better turned out to be an illusion as GE fell by 12% in one day, April 11, 2008, because of earnings shortfalls in its finance units as a result of the new climate in the credit and financial markets. Consumers spent heavily. If consumer spending had continued the trends from the 1990's then it would have gone up $3 trillion less today. It would have been 70% ratio of household debt to GDP, right now its close to 97% of GDP. Some of this $3 trillion estimate of Business Week economist Mandel using Fed data will be what the American consumer will be dealing with as he reduces spending in the years ahead. According to OECD data the ratio of household liabilities to disposable income (charts P11 of BW, April 21, 2008) is close to 1.0 in France and Germany which is contrary to what one would expect considering the more conservative spending there especially Germany, exceeds 1.0 in Japan, and far exceeds 1.0 in the US, and in Canada aabout 1.3, with the highest ratio in Britain at a whopping 1.7, using a ballpark view of the charts. This suggests that Britain is way off the charts in spending, see the link to this so expect spending to be hit hardest in Britain and with financial services being a bigger part of the GDP and the economy in Britain expect higher unemployment in Britain than the rest of Europe....

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When Paulson met with his staff a few days ago he stamped his hand on a marble table asking his staff to stop their arguments with politicians who supported Fannie and Freddie because it would result in a war which he did not want as reported in the New York Times recently. Representative Barney Frank is mentioned as one of the politicians supporting the management of Fannie and Freddie. So it happened that to the very bitter end these managers used their lobbying and political donations to distort the policymaking progress right under the eyes of the Republican administration that knew what was going on and media like the Wall Street Journal that has warned about the dangers at Fannie and Freddie for years. One question remains why under the original mandate for Fannie and Freddie were the companies not banned from political donations and lobbying as they were backed by a government guarantee and at the same time could distort the process of supervision by lobbying and political donations to Congress if this was allowed. So in the end its the biggest failure of the political process and of setting up of such companies that once set up they were beyond anybody's control. Josh Rosner, an analyst at Graham Fisher an independent research firm in New York, makes an apt comment: "since 2003 when these companies' accounting came under question, policymakers have done nothing." One can repeat nothing, and the politicains in Congress who received the donations will go on with their political ways while the government and the public shoulder the burden of billions of taxpayer dollars in the biggest bailout ever, considering the size of these two companies and what at stake for the country's housing markets, and considering that foreign governments like China have invested billions of dollars in these companies and needed assurance to continue to buy and hold Treasury bonds....

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Dirk Kurbjuweit of Spiegel says Merkel needs to show strong leadership to overcome the challenges with the rise of right wing populists in the U.S., Britain and France. He points to the leadership shown in the latter part of Kohl's term in office to promote German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The challenges include talking to the German people directly in a convincing way, and meeting the day to day challenges of life for the people with investments in education, health care, infrastructure so that people see real significant improvement. It is even necessary to reorder priorities such as the shift from nuclear energy so that this challenge is met. It is not enough to hope that more Christian Democrats turn out to vote than Social Democrats, that the fifth of Germans who feel the economy is not working for them and feel threatened by immigration see real changes being made to address their concerns.

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Support for high-speed rail from Gingrich, Perry and other Republican candidates.

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A lot of the same subprime lenders who had questionable ethical practices and in many cases defrauded homeowners are back in business as FHA guaranteed lenders. The FHA gets to pick up the tab for faulty lending by these brokers and companies. Inside Mortgage Finance, a research newsletter, estimates that over the next 5 years fresh FHA loans that go sour will cost thaxpayers $100 billion more. Risk Mitigation Group, a consultancy, says over the next 12-18 months there is going to be a FHA Insurance Armageddon. Founded in the New Deal years the FHA is supposed to promote first time home purchases by allowing small down payments, as little as 3%, and lenient standards on borrower income , as long as mortgage and related expenses do not exceed 31% of household earnings. Buyers pay a modest fee for the taxpayer backed insurance. Lenders and brokers can get a license to participate in FHA programs by showing industry experience and knowledge of agency rules. BUt experts say the FHA does not have the staff to deal with its expanded responsibilities under the new Bush programs like HOPE for homeowners, and does not have the IT systems to show if the brokers had violations and convictions in the past in their records. Overburdened, lacking the computer systems to track brokers records, and understaffed, the FHA has licensed some of the same brokers who caused the subprime disaster as they applied under different names and as different companies. After the subprime market evaporated in 2007 FHA loans are all thats available for many borrowers. In fact by fall 2008 FHA loans accounted for 26% of all new mortgages issued nationwide, up from only 4% a year earlier. The Bush administration and FHA extended $300 billion in loan guarantees to HOPE. And these brokers who defraud investors with deceptive practices are known to put down even disabled people as employed, and show incomes that are not verified. Once these loans are sold as securities these brokers engaged in deceptive practives have collected their fees and being FHA guaranteed they hold their value as securities, except that the losses as they default are the taxpayers responsibility. This is the $100 billion in losses that Inside Mortgage Finance is warning about. Along the way it leaves a trail of trouble for homeowners, state agencies trying to stem these practices, and taxpayers. ...

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During the primaries Trump appealed to blue collar voters of a white working class that felt neglected by leaders and policies of both parties that did not seem to work for ordinary people. Having caught onto this early long before Republican candidates, Trump registered a series of wins in the Republican primaries. He continued this theme in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on July 21, 2016, saying- "The forgotten men and women of our country- people who work but no longer have a voice: I am your voice." The idea was to couple this with the theme of law and order and put perception of Hillary Clinton as part of the rigged system of the past that Trump would change, with Clinton's legacy described in terms of "death, destruction, terrorism and weakness." As a change agent Trump described his entering the political arena in terms of coming into this election only to help blue collar people "so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves." The two themes for the rest of the election season- law and order, and blue collar lives- and who can best defend them a traditional Democratic politician with a fighting spirit for traditional Democratic values, or a blustery newcomer adept with slogans and the public mood and ironically representing the Democratic values of representing the working class to become the  Republican nominee, with the law and order theme thrown in. The voter or independent listening in to all this will hopefully ask what all this means. As the WSJ, July 19, 2016, pointed out in a recent look at economc policies under the two candidates- on Glass Steagall Act being reinstated to increase safety of the banking system that caused many of today's problems through the 2008 financial crisis both Trump and Clinton are similiar, on opposing trade agreements similiar except that Trump's bluster is a riskier approach, on infrastructure building similiar with Clinton's $275 billion plan spelled out out for source of financing and Trump's unclear as to source of financing. On immigration the candidates are different, on the minimum wage which impacts low income people Clinton supports $15 minimum wage and Trump has not taken a stand. On ISIS and the Middle East Clinton is in reality a hawk and not much difference in the candidates, on law and order more chance of divisions in the country with Trump than Clinton. Overall for the working class and blue collar voter his life will take a decade or more to rebuild, with both candidates commiting to go in that direction. And the bluster and ads to come- just that.  ...

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A sobering view of international conflicts looking at the ones in the English experience, with the Scots and the Irish. The conflict with the Scots actually went on from 1296 when King Edward I tried to claim the throne of Scotland with resistance from William Wallace and Robert Bruce, with terrorist tactics, frequent burning, looting and killing on both sides. And many battles that were inconclusive. The accession of Scottish person to the English throne as James I did not end it and it was'nt till 1745 till it ended. A referendum was held in the 18th century in Scotland and the commercial interests of Glasgow and Edinburgh prevailed in the end. Scotland saw the rich opportunities in trade and commerce from the expanding British Empire. Something that can be seen in exhibits at the Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh. In this sense political rapprochment fails when the time is not ripe, and when there are other changes in society and economy things can change enough to create an entirely new situation in which old conflicts simply take a backseat to something else. For Ireland the economic changes of the recent years creating a vibrant Irish economy gives Ireland enough confidence in itself to work with England, and set things on the path to peaceful development on the Irish isle. ...

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Paul Kasriel sees the numbers for personal disposable income and those for personal consumption expenditures and personal residential investment expenditures and finds them very disturbing as they have deficits for the last 6 of 7 years. Only in seven other years going back to the 1929's has there been such a situation of finances being in so prone to overspending beyond the incomes. People have been borrowing against their home to spend but that piggybank is running out very quickly and so he sees impact on personal consumption leading to a recession.

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Bill Gates describes the successful work of 2 million volunteers and millions of children and parents in India's poorest rural areas to get all the children in India vaccinated for polio. This includes the work of the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. He decribes his visits to India and realizing over time how bringing vaccinations, healthcare, improvement in agricultural development would enable hundreds of millions of India's children to participate and contribute to bringing out India's full potential. Harnessing their full potential is the next big challenge in India's development and modernization.

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Witte, Booth and Adam of the Washington Post describe the situation Britain's prime minister Theresa May finds herself in after calling a snap election. A badly run campaign by May focusses on Brexit, and leads to election losses to Labor. Without the support of voters in Scotland who voted tactically to prevent Scotland from breaking away, the Conservatives would have no chance of forming a government. May now needs the 10 seats of the Democratic Unionist Party in Scotland to have a 3 seat majority. Labor leader Corbyn despite a barrage of negative publicity from British tabloids, maintained his cool and composure. His focus on the austerity politics of the Conservatives under Cameron and now May, enabled Labor to get 40% of the vote compared to the Conservatives 43%, with the Scottish National Party getting 3% and the Liberal Democrats 7.4%. Giving the parties that have never seen Brexit as a priority for Britain over 50% of the vote. The Democratic Unionist is a small party with less than 1% of the vote (0.9%), which in some countries makes it ineligible to take seats in the legislature. In the mixed up out of focus nature of British politics today this party is the kingmaker. The UK Independence party or UKIP party that started the whole affair of Brexit- that prime minister Cameron responded to to gain votes for the Conservatives by promising the referendum on Brexit- won just 1.8% of the votes cast, in a election where 69% of voters went to the polls, winning zero seats, down from 10.8% in the 2015 election. This is the state of British politics today  following the failure of political leaders, as Theresa May acts as if the election results are not sending a message about Brexit, say Witte, Booth and Adams.   ...

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The story of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund's founding in 1976, and the inspiration from Nobel Laureate economist Paul Samuelson, is told by founder John Bogle. On August 31, 1976, the first index mutual fund, First Index Investment Trust was born. It was launched by Bogle at Vanguard. The idea he put forth was that passive index management could outperform active management with its fees, load, commission and other costs. The IPO target was $150 million, but the underwiritng resulted only in $11.3 million. The underwriters suggested cancelling the deal, saying that this was not enough to own all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Bogle's response was just the opposite- he now had the world's first index mutual fund. Here Bogle talks about the early inspiration. His senior thesis at Priceton University in 1951, in which Bogle broached the idea that mutual funds could not say they were superior to market averages, received support from Samuelson. This was followed by the article 23 years later by Samuelson in "Challenge to Judgement," an article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in summer 1974, that stated: "that some large foundation set up an in-house portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 Index." Bogle took up the challenge and offered well diversified funds at minimal costs, with a focus on the long term investment. Writing in Newsweek in August 1976, Samuelson said that his prayer had been answered. Bogle describes how his inital encounter working with Samuelson's "Economics: An Introductory Analysis," was difficult. He barely made a C-. In 1993 Samuelson offered to write the foreword on Bogle's first book- "Bogle on Mutual Funds." The relationship lasted 61 years!...

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This piece in the Economist provides useful insights in the efforts to repair relations between Japan and China by October 2014, following a series of incidents and disputes. Some experts say China's slowing economy is one reason for mending relations. Japanese direct investment in China has declined sharply by over 40% in 2014 compared to 2013. In 2013 there was a decline following other incidents, and Japanese business has experienced difficulties in operating in China. As a result there is a shift to other parts of Asia including Vietnam and India, that is underway. Volatile relations with China has given the Japanese business and diplomatic community pause about the future of Japanese business investments in China. This is also the background as Chinese Communist leaders face a critical decision on how to handle the protests in Hong Kong over universal suffrage- errors will only add to the image of a China volatile in its relations with the outside world. It is not just North America and Europe, China has to interact with, it has to interact with Japan, Australia, S. Korea, South East Asian nations (Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines), and India, all these countries not sure what China's intentions are after territorial waters or land disputes. Along with Indonesia and Bangladesh, this is a region with about twice the population of China and representing most of Asia, a fact usually omitted as western business rushed into the Chinese market. Chinese Communist leaders are faced with huge challenges and success in the next phase of development, and it is by no means certain under a ossified system of government which cannot change with the times, as technology and foreign investment will now be much more critical drivers of development than in the first phase. ...

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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The G-20 summit in April had as its achievement the $1 trillion that would go to aid for emerging countries and other countries in need. But this number may not be what it appears to be and should be seen with care. Prof. Eswar Prasad, former division chief for China at the IMF, and now Professor at Cornell University, says there is double counting in the numbers, and a lot of the money has not yet been committed. With trade financing only a quarter of the $250 billion is fresh cash, the rest is trade financing that is rolled over every 6 months. For the Special Drawing Rights issuance of $250 billion, a kind of virutal currency that is set by a basket of real currencies like the dollar and the euro, the IMF will issue SDR's to all 185 of its members. This is not cash but a form of credit, against which a country can borrow. The Obama administration that came up with this idea thinks it will create $15 to $20 billion in additional credit for the poorest countries. For this to happen the US has to lend out its special drawing rights to poor countries, and this requires congressional approval. Of the $500 billion in direct commitments, Dr Prasad says less than half has been commited by Japan, the EU, Canada and Norway. China says it will put in $40 billion probably by buying bonds issued by the IMF. The US contribution of $100 billion has to be authorized by Congress. Even with the US contribution Prasad sees a shortfall of $145 billion of the $500 billion in donations. And the Saudis, the Indians will require a bigger say in the IMF to contribute some of this. ...

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Paul Bremer the American in charge on the ground in Iraq issued a decree on May 22, 2003 disbanding the Iraqi army, to extirpate all forms of Saddamism and dismantle the intelligence and command centres of the Iraqi military. This was not part of the original invasion plan according to some reports. Bremer's decision sent many of these officers to fight against the Americans as insurgents, cost American lives and lives of the insurgents effectively turning the invasion into a years long war with hit and run insurgents formerly of the Saddam army. Also effectively destroying or weakening the former elements of Saddam's army. In the process it gave Shiites the first hope of living free of Sunni control and Sunnis who wanted no part of Baathist politics and repression their freedom to exercize their rights, it also brought in the turmoil and lack of security, the bombing of Shiite holy sites by politically motivated Sunni elements and Shiite reprisals, that led to effective partition of the country something a long history of ethnic conflicts and colonialism may have already exacerbated long before the arrival of Americans. The documents of the war planning may suggest that keeping the Iraqi army intact was part of the plan but Bremer could not have issued the decree and had Bush back him up unless Bush and Rumsfeld felt the same way about extirpating Saddamism, seeing it in the way Americans treated Nazis and Nazi instituitons after invading Germany and seeing it the way the Americans saw the Japanese militarists and their institutions after the invasion of Japan. The Baathist treatment of the Kurds, the gas attacks on the Kurds, the destruction of Shia in the marshes after the first American invasion, the repression of Sunni and Shiite, were reminiscent of Nazism and Japanese militarism....