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Global Auto Contraction Ahead
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The global auto industry has capacity for producing 92 million vehicles in 2009, but only 60 million cars will be sold next year, according to CSM Worldwide. And CSM forecasts capacity utilizations will not return to the 2007 rate of 80% till 2014. And because of their better product mix, more new models, and better fuel efficiency, the Japanese, Korean and European carmakers have a better capacity utilization than the Detroit Big Three, even though they are also hurting badly as credit collapses and and an overextended American buyer is wary of new purchases. Robinet, the head of global vehicle forecasting at CSM Worldwide, estimates that the Big Three Detroit automakers will only need half their current production capacity in 2009, something he says is not sustainable for any industry. If these estimates hold true then there is a major earth shaking experience ahead for Detroit automakers that is not reflected in the attitudes and the bargaining about who benefits and who concedes what from unions, management, workers, bondholders, dealers and suppliers, even after the near miss for the bridge loans. It is a situation in which even globally and among the strongest automakers like Toyota and Honda there is going to be a lot of misery in 2009 and beyond. Only some automakers around the world will survive this shakeout.
Is the U.S. automobile market becoming a maturing market like Japan and Germany?
08/23/2007
Are the fundamentals of the American market shifting and is the American market a maturing market like Japan and Germany. Did the carmakers create a bubble of their own in sales so that 17 million is a way way inflated number, inflated by incentives and sales to rental fleets, way beyond what the American market even with its better demographics can sustain?
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Only some of the existing automakers will survive. Global production capacity is 92 million cars and only 60 million will be sold in 2009, says CSM Worldwide, and the situation is worse with Detroit automakers with only 50% of current capacity expected as sales in 2009.
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