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Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
A more outward looking Chinese leadership of Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping in 2012-2020
08/22/2011
Linked Articles
Heartland Return for Chinese Leader
Wall Street Journal 01/31/2012
China Previews Rising LeadershipWall Street Journal 08/22/2011
Ford Motor Company's push to meet new fuel efficiency standards on the F-150 for 2014
07/27/2011
Ford plans to cut body weight on the F-150 pickup truck by 700 pounds, 15% of the body weight, by switching to aluminium from steel. This will enable a 25% increase in fuel efficiency.
Linked Articles
Ford's Trade-In: Truck to Use Aluminum in Place of Steel
Wall Street Journal 07/27/2012
Five Car Makers Back White House's Tougher Fuel Economy RulesWall Street Journal 07/27/2011
A second generation of Chinese leaders- sons of partisans from the Long March
06/25/2011
Linked Articles
Heartland Return for Chinese Leader
Wall Street Journal 01/31/2012
China's new leaders: The princelings are comingEconomist 06/25/2011
OPEC disagreement on setting production quotas in June 2011
06/08/2011
Saudis argued in favor of increasing production to meet rising demand. Iran, Venezuela and other countries were opposed. The result was that no agreement was reached. The spare capacity of Iran and other countries opposed to increasing production is small. Analysts expect the Saudis to increase production unilaterally.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
OPEC Keeps Lid on Oil Production TargetsNew York Times 06/08/2011
Basic misunderstanding- (1) one point in the Israel- U.S. relationship on May 20, 2011, with president Obama's call for a return to pre-1967 borders
05/20/2011
When Ambassador Oren says Obama abandoned Israel, he refers to the "surprises" and "no daylight" or open disagreements that marked the relationship during the two terms of the Obama administration. One such point was on May 20, 2011, with Obama's call for pre-1967 borders.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/16/2015
Netanyahu Rejects Obama Compromises on TalksNew York Times 05/20/2011
Saudi expert Karen Elliott House's thirty years of experience covering the Middle East tell us that the U.S. policy is sorely out of touch in the Middle East
02/15/2011
Elliott House is a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal and a Pulitzer prize winner for covering the Middle East. She sees the Saudi Arabian princes sorely out of touch with the ordinary Saudis and the young people and U.S. policy at an impasse. Rice says the policy of supporting autocracy only brings a false kind of stability. She sees Egypt, Tunisia and the rest of the Arab world and thinks it did not have to be this way.
Linked Articles
Condoleezza Rice - The future of a democratic Egypt
Washington Post 02/16/2011
From Tunis to Cairo to Riyadh?Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
Sobhi Saleh of Egypt- from parliament to protests and the panel rewriting the constitution
02/04/2011
Nicholas Kulish's account in the NYT Feb 4, 2011, must rank as an exceptional piece of international coverage and journalism. It provides a heart rending account of the member of parliament from Alexandria. Arrested in the protests for democracy, Saleh makes his way out from a prison set on fire. Saleh is a member of an eight member panel rewriting the constitution in Feb. 2012.
Linked Articles
Egypt's Military Names Constitutional Panel
Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
Why a Member of the Muslim Brotherhood Was Late to the RevolutionNew York Times 02/04/2011
Michael Gerson was with Condoleeza Rice in a rare meeting in Cairo, Egypt, in June 2005, to support democratic voices.
02/01/2011
The meeting set up in a conference room in Cairo, Egypt, had 9 opposition figures, including Ayman Nour, a presidential candidate.
Linked Articles
Condoleezza Rice - The future of a democratic Egypt
Washington Post 02/16/2011
Michael Gerson - Arabs' urge for self-government shouldn't be a surpriseWashington Post 02/01/2011
Dim outlook for Rebalancing the World Economy
01/20/2011
The widening U.S. trade deficit with China in 2011 and no evidence of a shift to domestic consumption in the Chinese economy make it increasingly unlikely that there will be a rebalancing in the world economy.
Linked Articles
No Appreciation for the Rising Yuan
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Don't Bank on China 'Rebalancing'Wall Street Journal 01/20/2011
Gome Electrical Appliances and competition from online retailer 360Buy.com in China
12/27/2010
Gome faces from 360Buy.com the kind of competiton Best Buy faces in the U.S. from Amazon.com.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2012
Wal-Mart Agrees to Deal With 360buy.com of ChinaNew York Times 12/27/2010
The warnings on trade in 2010-2011 and sharply shifting public sentiment in the U.S. across all age, income and education groups
10/02/2010
A WSJ poll in 2010 showed that between 1999 and 2010 public sentiment had completely changed seeing trade as hurting American workers. A study by counties in the U.S. by Autor, Hanson, and Dorn showed the damage done by trade policy for American manufacturing workers. By March 2016 in the U.S. presidential election Michigan primary large gains were made by Republican and Democratic candidates opposing trade agreements including TPP negotiated by president Obama.
Linked Articles
Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade
Wall Street Journal 09/27/2011
Americans Sour on TradeWall Street Journal 10/02/2010
David Stockman says Republicans have given up their role in doing financially responsible budgeting for decades.
07/11/2010
The budget deficits, Reagan's Budget director says, developed to this point after decades of irresponsivble budget behaviour that has lasted gone on for four decades. He says the Greece style deficit of 120% of GDP for the USA by 2015 calls for austerity.
Linked Articles
Four Deformations of the Apocalypse
New York Times 07/31/2010
Crisis Awaits Worldâs Banks as Trillions Come DueNew York Times 07/11/2010
Harvard labor economist Lawrence Katz's solutions to the job crises and high unemployment in the U.S.
09/06/2011
Katz suggest a number of steps including a subsidy for companies creating new jobs. A form of this subsidy is used in Germany with the "kurzarbeit" program which preserves jobs in a downturn. Katz reminds us that there are three job crises facing America- long term unemployed not reflected in government unemployment figures, effects of foreclosures and debt, and the impact of automation with lower job creation in manufacturing. A sustained andmultipronged approach over a number of years is needed and no single panacea or misguided optimism will work.
Linked Articles
The Next First (and Only) 100 Days
New York Times 12/10/2011
Help Displaced WorkersNew York Times 09/06/2011
The Japanese yen and the Korean won, 2006-2015 - (1) Japan's deflation and the wage gap between South Korea and Japan
08/15/2011
Linked Articles
Strong Yen Sparks National Debate
Wall Street Journal 08/15/2011
Yen's Fall Leaves Japan Hankering for MoreWall Street Journal 04/09/2013
Black people in the U.S. and declining economic advancement in 2008-2016
07/26/2011
Black people see fewer opportunities in the public sector in 2015. The black community has hardly recovered from the damaging effects of foreclosures and higher unemployment following the financial crisis of 2008, and the gap between whites and black people has widened during the last ten years.
Linked Articles
Public-Sector Jobs Vanish, Hitting Blacks Hard
New York Times 05/24/2015
Wealth gap widens between whites, minorities, report says - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/26/2011
Increasing domestic consumption in Saudi Arabia will diminish reserve supplies and put pressure on oil prices in 2012-2013
06/23/2011
Saudi domestic consumption increasing at 10% a year will diminsh the Saudi role as a reserve supplier. Estimates are for zero reserve supplies by 2020 and oil imports by 2038, so large is the effect of growing use of oil at home. The Arab Spring means subsidies and social spending will increase, supporting continuing use of oil at current levels for a rapidly growing population.
Linked Articles
The End of the Saudi Oil Reserve Margin
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Rising Saudi Thirst for Oil Drives Plans to Go NuclearWall Street Journal 06/23/2011
Brazil's uneven economic development with growth focussed on export based mining and agriculture
05/21/2011
As the commodities boom fades Brazil's growth slows to 1% in 2012 after the rapid growth in the years under president Lula. Stiglitz and Sen pointed to this kind of uneven development with the neglect of education, healthcare and other public services. This is true also of economic development in China focussed on export industries, with the added cost of environmental degradation. Street protests in June 2013 in many Brazilian cities from Porto Alegre and Curitiba to Rio and Sao Paulo showed popular discontnet with the situation under president Rouseff.
Linked Articles
Brazil's north-east: Catching up in a hurry
Economist 05/21/2011
Anger Spills Onto Brazil's StreetsWall Street Journal 06/18/2013
OPEC social programs and need to maintain high oil prices
04/18/2011
PFC Energy estimates a price of $90 at which Saudi Arabia would start cutting output to maintain a floor on oil price to support large spending programs after the democracy protests in Arab countries.
Linked Articles
Fears of a 2008 Repeat for Oil
Wall Street Journal 03/18/2012
Overheard: Oil and UnrestWall Street Journal 04/18/2011
Sobhi Saleh, member of parliament from Alexandria, Egypt, and Egypt's path to democratic processes.
02/04/2011
Sobhi Saleh represented Alexandria in parliament from 2005 to 2010, for the Muslim Brotherhood. Nicholas Kulish provides an heart rending account of how Saleh makes his way out of a prison set on fire after his arrest during the Egyptian protests. He was selected by the Egyptian military as a member of the eight member panel asked to rewrite key articles of the constitution.
Linked Articles
Egypt's Military Names Constitutional Panel
Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
Why a Member of the Muslim Brotherhood Was Late to the RevolutionNew York Times 02/04/2011
Rand Paul and the presidential election of 2016
02/02/2011
Linked Articles
Midterm Elections 2014: Rand Paul Is Go-To Republican for 2014 Candidates
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2014
Rand Paul: No ‘Great Compromiser’Wall Street Journal 02/02/2011
Condoleeza Rice and Elliott Abrams question the whole policy of supporting autocracy to preserve a false kind of stability in Egypt and the Arab world
01/28/2011
This stability that comes at the expense of liberty and basic freedoms does not serve America well. This only helps give rise to malignant forces that grow when democratic voices are suppressed. This is especially true in Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world where a false stability has been created.
Linked Articles
Condoleezza Rice - The future of a democratic Egypt
Washington Post 02/16/2011
Egypt protests show George W. Bush was right about freedom in the Arab worldWashington Post 01/28/2011
The slow shift to healthy choices at grocery chains and restaurants in the U.S. even as the healthcare costs reach alarming proportions
01/20/2011
U.S. companies, workers, and the U.S. economy is squeezed between the growth in obesity related diabetes and other obesity related diseases and the growth in health care costs to treat these diseases. Yet no coordinated action plan exists to tackle the problem between companies, government, universities, public interest groups, and other groups. And the progress charted out by grocery chains, restaurants and other organizations in the food business to provide and encourage healthy choices is incredibly slow.
Linked Articles
Wal-Mart Plans to Make Its House Brand Healthier
New York Times 01/20/2011
Low-Cal Items Fuel Restaurant SalesWall Street Journal 02/07/2013
The prospects of a stalled economy in China as the productivity of capital deteriorates
11/23/2010
Inflation, repressed consumers, and the failure of current economic policy to produce the kind of sustainable growth China needs. One of the concerns raised before the Asian economic crisis of 1997 was the poor and declining productivity of capital in some Asian countries.
Linked Articles
New York Times 01/20/2011
Sclerosis in China's Economic VeinsWall Street Journal 11/23/2010
Who is the sucker in this war? Mohamed Hanif and Thomas Friedman offer two perspectives on the Afghan war.
07/31/2010
Mohamed Hanif of the BBC's Urdu Service gives the view of ordinary Pakistanis outside of the small military and civilian elite that runs Pakistan. They are just looking in and are more interested in the electricity that can illuminate a village, than with an obsession for India. Pakistan has lagged in economic development and has no emerging middle class like India. Friedman of the New York times sees America a the sucker in this game, but is oblivious to the feeling of ordinary Pakistanis who were never part of this.
Linked Articles
In Pakistan, Echoes of American Betrayal
New York Times 07/31/2010
The Great (Double) GameNew York Times 07/31/2010
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