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A Wall Street Journal Survey of how the credit ratings firms have performed in prediciting looming defaults. The Journal's Matt Wirz looked at 35 years of data. He found the ratings firms did not do an effective job with predicting defaults in the 12 month period before an actual default. Of the 15 government defaults since 1975 tracked by S&P, S&P's sovereign ratings division rated 12 of the countries single B or higher in the 12 months preceding the default. S&P says a single-B rating on sovereign debt signifies that the government has only a 2% average default rate in the next 12 months. For Moody's Investors Service the figures show that of the 13 governments rated by Moody's, 11 were rated B or higher one year before an actual default. By contrast the investment grade ratings of the credit ratings firms have worked better- as no government defaulted within 15 years of having a tripe-A, double-A, or a single-A rating. Ratings firms say that the ratings indicate a relative default risk for countries and not an actual default probability, a rank ordering for different countries and their relative risk. Research chiefs at investment management firms point out that once a crisis develops the ratings firms are not much help. They also say the ratings firms use static indicators like current account balances and other critical indicators for countries in emerging markets such as political sentiment and bank deposit flows get less attention. Historically bond yields have priced in higher risk premiums into government bonds before a default and investors look at the bond yields in assessing risk conditions, and not at the ratings which change only slowly. Brazil and Argentina both had a double B-minus rating in Jan. 2001. A year later Argentina had defaulted....

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Economists estimate Brazil's economy declined in the 4th quarter 2013 following a 0.5% contraction in 3rd quarter 2013. The central bank's economic activity index dropped by 1.35% in December over November. After a decade long boom in consumer spending retail sales are slowing sharply, growing only 4% in 2013 compared to 2012. The bright spot is unemployment. Unemployment in 6 of Brazil's largest metropolitan areas declined to an average of 5.4% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Brazilian manufacturers see lower production and investment, and industry is affected by the weak economic conditions in Argentina. Real wages increased by 1.8% in 2013 over 2012. Growth for 2014 is estimated at 1.5%.

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Tether is a cryptocurrency based out of the Virgin Islands that is pegged to the dollar 1:1. It has $120 billion in assets mostly safe US Treasury bills, and gold, bitcoin. It made $6.2 billion in profit for its owners more than Black Rock largest American asset manager fund. What does this mean? It offers an outlet for trade in oil for Russia and other countries such as Venezuela. At the same time it is useful to people in countries with high inflation such as Argentina and Turkey  where people use it to protect their assets from inflation erosion. When its use is widespread this also results in diversion of funds away from the Treasury as in Venezuela where an oil minister was toppled, says this WSJ report. And at the same time it gives protection to Venezuelans from extreme inflation. How it works- Tether Holdings issues virtual coins to a select number of direct customers, mostly trading firms, who wire real world dollars in exchange for Tether.  Tether buys US Treasury bills with these dollars to back Tether's value. Who runs Tether? Tether's cofounders included a plastic surgeon Giancarlo Devasini. All co-founders sold out to Devasini, who runs it from an enclave in southern coast of France. The company was founded in 2014. Interest was slim in a stable token backed by US Treasury bills. Then in 2020-21 bull run in the stock market traders started using it to buy and sell out of risky bets. It's market capitalization exploded from $4 billion to about $80 billion.  Tether says it avoids illicit transactions. WSJ report says 2713 wallets or about $1.2 billion were blacklisted, this out of $153 billion provided by Tether to its 2 popular blockchains. Rest of the funds already sent on, says WSJ. ...

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The EU agreement with Mercosur representing South American nations Argentina and Brazil is unlikely to go through with protests by French farmers who see exports threatening their livelihood at a time when costs of fertilizer, electricity, and other inputs are increasing. The French prime minister Attal says "France is clearly opposed to signing the Mercosur Treaty." French farmers are conducting a siege of Paris with tractors in long lines along the highways traveling from regions 300 miles away. A treaty with New Zealand allowing import of muttton is also opposed by farmers. EU treaties were used to increase export of cars and other industrial products from Germany, in exchange for allowing in agricultural or commodities such as lithium or metals, and soyabeans. Farmers in other European countries including Germany have also conducted protest in recent months about high costs of inputs and lack of enough government support. Dutch farmers were able to block some environmental measures on methane taken by the Dutch government and leading to a new government in the recent election. ...

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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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A drought in northern China is shaping up to be the longest since 1951, matching one in the winter of 1970-71. This will affect world food prices as adverse weather has also affected Russia, Australia and Argentina, which are major food producers. China has large reserves of grain and has the foreign exchage reserves to import wheat. China's wheat imports rose to 1.2 million tons in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services. This compares with global output of 682 million metric tons of wheat in 2009, as estimated by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Because China accounts for one sixth of global wheat production, this will put pressure on wheat prices. The Chinese government has cushioned price rises by asking provinces and cities to raise the minimum wage, which went up by 18% a year in Guangdong province.

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Cochrane says the best option today is for Europe to accept a sovereign default for Greece. He says the European Central Bank which stands behind the euro, should not be used for buying bonds of troubled countries with shaky "collateral." This would only lead to a situation where EU countries would have to recapitalize the ECB. He emphasizes the fact that Greece will not pay back this debt. And the only way out is to have a situation similiar to Argentina where it needs to start over, and it would at some point be able to borrow again. Austerity is deeply unpopular in Greece and with higher unemployment Greece's financial situation is rapidly deteriorating. Making austerity something that was tried to buy time but will not work. Cochrane also makes the point that the euro itself acts like the euro bonds that EU countries are reluctant to support, it means the ECB backs the currency and supports it- which makes it vital to keep the ECB whole and prevent the dilution of its financial strength. Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, resigned to express his opposition to the ECB buying the bonds of troubled eurozone countries, which he said was outside the ECB's mandate to conduct monetary policy....

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Experts say there may not be much difference whether a voluntary deal is reached between Greece and the Institute of International Finance or a deal is forced on private bondholders by Greece for the 93% of Greek bonds that are based on Greek laws. Most of the large banks that hold Greek bonds will be subject to persuasion by European authorites (EU, ECB) to accept the deal offered by Greece that brings debt down to 120% of GDP by 2020. The remaining holdouts are the hedge funds that will want to opt out of a voluntary arrangement anyway, because a forced deal by Greece would allow them to collect payments on their credit default swaps. Adam Lerrick, an expert on sovereign debt restructurings, says the hedge funds and other private bondholders are framing the discussion into one of a voluntary agreement that is orderly and an involuntary agreement that is disorderly, as a tactic to scare the European authorites (the EU, ECB) and Greece. He says not only can forced restructurings be orderly, but in this case the improved prospects for Greece with serious debt reduction would lead to a ratings upgrade for Greece. Some hedge funds have said they will sue if forced into the deal. Michael Waibel, at the Lauerpacht Centre for International Law at Cambridge University, says the case would first go to Greek courts where it would be received without much sympathy, and then to the European Court of Human Rights. Only the small number of bonds under Swiss and English law with pari passu clauses insisting on equal treatment of bondholders have any prospects, and even then legal enforcement of any awards is uncertain as shown in the case of Argentina. The 93% of bonds under Greek law have no such clauses and this gives Greece the option for special treatment of bonds held by the ECB....

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Ariana Huffington of the Huffington Post recalls her days growing up in Athens. She says from her own personal experience that the children should not be penalized for the mistakes of their parents, that the next generation should not have to live desperate lives for the next decade under ECB policies that leave no room for growth. She adds her voice to voices in France, Spain, and other countries in the eurozone about the impact of current EU and ECB policies on Europe, and says exiting the eurozone is a difficult option, but like the Argentine example offers more hope for growth for the young generation in Greece.

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Some of the most vulnerable populations in the world during coronavirus are in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the surrounding regions, in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, and in African countries. This report looks at the increase in poverty in Pakistan and increasing food insecurity with food prices increasing. Government priorities are a concern says this report. Malnutrition is increasing with estimates ranging and some as high as 40% of children. A PTI official of the government is cited here as saying that it could be as high as 50% of children suffering from malnutrition. One of the problems for food insecurity in the Indian region going back to the famines during the British rule in Bengal and the famines in Bihar during Congress rule after independence is that supplies are lacking of foodgrains or that the incomes have fallen so drastically that people could not afford to buy food. Governments stepped in after independence to provide foodgrains at subsidized prices. These programs need to be pushed to the forefront and and international assistance needs to be sought. Planning minister Asad Umar points out in this report in DW.com that millions of Pakistanis are falling below the poverty line increasing food insecurity at a critical time. He gives estimate that one out of four Pakistanis have had their diets reduced. There is every reason to support efforts for cross border supply of foodgrains between India and Pakistan as humanitarian approach in the coronavirus crisis even as differences exist over border regions- as such differences exist all over the world over borders but humanitarian approach has benefitted the entire region during the Bihar famines after independence with aid from the U.S. Johnson administration. At that time in 1966-67 the seriousness of the situation in Bihar was only gradually and reluctantly accepted by the institutions, officials and governments around the world, says Cambridge University Press looking back on that crisis. And it is to the great credit of the Johnson administration that it launched the subsequent efforts for the Green Revolution and foodgrain production involving Norman Borlaug and the Indian government. Something of this type needs to be launched again across the region.   ...

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Chile's new constitution was drafted after a vote on a constitutional convention in which many people not involved before and on the fringes of society including indigenous groups were elected. More than half are independents and from different groups of society not well represented before. As a result of this the lack of experience has led to enshrining every single right that one could think of instead of focusing on what the protests were about about - the pension system, unfairness in access to health housing and education in the way funds are allocated from the budget, and promoting fairness in government.  At this time there is no certainty that it will be passed. A 36 year old student protest leader Gabriel Boric is the president elected after two years of protests about the unfairness of the system that took shape under a constitution written by a military dictator Pinochet who ran the country from 1973 to 1990. Pinochet came to power in a coup that is common in the history of South American Republics such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile and other countries. During the period of the government of Marxist president Salvador Allende the country was polarized resulting in the military taking over.  If the constitution is rejected a new convention will be formed to write a new constitution. In following the Structure of the US, Canadian, or British constitution, or the Indian it is important to look at the document so that it will stand the test of time rather than simply enumerating the rights of man. It is also important to focus on how to make the basic rights such as food, housing and education be well funded and society to be run along lines of basic fairness in incomes, while protecting enterprise and industry that can create new wealth for the country. The large South American economies are mainly dependent on commodities for export and there is a need to fund new business sectors which are not in commodity products- copper in the case of Chile- so that the economy can develop in a way that funds progress in incomes. ...

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Strong criticism from Attorney General Luisa Ortega, and dissension inside the government, led to the Supreme Court retracting parts of its decision to nullify the powers of the legislature. Ortega called the move "a rupture of the constitutional order." Most of the judges are appointed on the court by the Maduro government. Strong criticism by the OAS calling it a "self inflicted coup", by other governments in Latin America, also led to retracting parts of the decision by the Supreme Court. Nicholas Maduro succeeded Mr. Chavez who was the democratically elected president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. Maduro narrowly won the election in 2013 by a margin of about 1.5% over Henrique Capriles. In 2015 in National Assembly elections the opposition parties won a majority in the National Assembly. Protests against the Maduro government were followed by a recall attempt in 2016 which was suppressed. Inflation and economic conditions in Venezuela worsened under Maduro with the collapse of oil prices. The devaluation of the currency, high inflation and shortages of basic goods have led to widespread protests. As the situation worsened the Supreme Court in support of the government gradually chipped away at the powers of the National Assembly since 2016, leading to the situation in April 2016 with  the effort to strip the Assembly of all powers and remove the immunity from prosecution of legislators. Maduro is a former bus driver for the city of Caracas bus system, and a trade unionist. He was part of the movement supporting Chavez release after a coup attempt, foreign minister 2006-2013, and appointed Chavez successor in 2012.  Max Fisher and Amanda Taub of the NYT go on to discuss the writings of political scientists, including Dutch expert Cas Mudde, who pointed out that populism often starts its climb because established institutions and elites have become unresponsive to pubic needs. Yet the replacement is with what starts out as an effort to bring fairness- yet ends up creating another elite, suppressing opposition, and creating a new set of problems, even threatening the institutional framework of democracy such as elected assembly as happened last week in Venezuela.  In Venezuela the Chavez populist movement was initially intended to reduce corruption in the court system, the established parties control over media, and ensure oil revenues were used to provide services to poor regions and neighborhoods.  In the process over two decades it introduced a system that set up a Bolivarist class of its own based on socialist goals, failed to integrate the economy into the global economy for modernization, and created an overdependence on oil revenues that hurt the country when prices dropped sharply. High inflation, corruption, shortages of basic goods, and an economy slipping behind neighboring countries in Latin America, are the result by 2017. Seeing the situation in Venezuela in the context of current populist trends in the U.S. and Europe may be a stretch because the situation in Venezuela is unique to Latin America in some ways and is from an earlier period. High inflation, collapsing economy, debt problems and mismanagement of the economy, devaluation of currency, are problems faced by Brazil, Argentina, and other countries in Latin America, happening under conservative as well as populist governments since the 1960's. It is different in two respects, the disconnect with the global economy that prevents modernization, and the trend towards authoritarianism, as seen in Venezuela.     ...

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Here the NYT answers questions about the Panama Papers- what they are, who is shown to have used the tax havens to avoid taxes, and what this all means. Politburo members in China, relatives of president Xi Jinping, close associates of Mr. Putin of Russia, prime minister Cameron's father, the new head of FIFA, the head of Transparency Chile, president Mauricio Macri of Argentina, prime minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan, President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, are some of the figures mentioned by the NYT. An unnamed source tapped into the files of offshore law firm Mossack Fonseca in Panama to collect 2.6 terabytes of data or 11.5 million documents that contain this information, and gave it to a German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung about a year ago. These papers were then shared with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, and 100 news agencies including The Guardian.

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Foley cites a recent survey by the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences shown in the South China Morning Post. This survey shows 96% of respondents "resenting the rich." In 2007, the Asian Development Bank estimated the Gini coefficient for China at 0.47%, up from 0.28% in 1983, same as Sweden, Japan and Germany. Now its closer to Argentina and Mexico. This is happening as less than 70% of graduates have jobs. And a peculiar situation is occurring in China where the retail prices are not increasing but prices of real estate and of commodities like iron ore and oil are high. There is too much liquidity with $1.5 trillion of governmet manadated bank lending and inflation is rising creating a speculative bubble in stock and real estate. And there are protectionist pressures with the USA sensing that cheap imports subsidized by artificially low currency in China is worsening America's trade deficit.

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Renault SA sales increased by 3.2% to 2.7 million cars in 2014. Renault does not sell vehicles in the U.S., and it has only a small operation in China. Sales in emerging markets outside of Europe declined from 50% of sales to 46%. Sales in Brazil were up 0.3% and sales in Argentina declined by 40%. Sales in Russia declined. The sales outlook in emerging markets Brazil and Russia is poor for 2015. Renault has been a laggard in China, and plans to make large investments to catch up with competitors. Sales in Europe were significantly better. Sales were 577,601 in France for 2014, an increase of 5.5% over prior year. The most popular model is the Dacia, with sales up 19.1% in 2014 to 511,465, now making up 18.9% of total sales. Renault plans to introduce 5 new models in 2015, and forecasts sales growth of 2%.

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Brazil's Senate passes a 20 year spending cap to be reviewed every 10 years put forward by interim president Michel Temer. After years of increased spending and higher deficits, the action is intended to control government spending. It also means reversing some of the spending on healthcare and social programs of the Workers Party of Rousseff and Da Silva. After a long period of Workers party rule with higher spending, the drop in commodity prices and declining growth in China led to stalling growth in a commodities (metals and grain) dependent Brazilian economy. The spending cap passed the Senate 53 to 16. President Temer is  unpopular and seen as part of the same government and elite as Rousseff that led to the corruption scandals- recent polls show 63% of Brazilian people want him to resign and only 10% saying he is doing a good job. A Datafolha poll shows 60% oppose the spending cap. After the impeachment of president Rousseff in the corruption scandal, vice president Temer assumed the presidency till 2018. Brazil's Workers Party was popular during the da Silva years as it expanded spending on social programs- supported by a growing economy with commodities exports to China and high prices- only to see a slumping economy and falling popularity under successor Rousseff as the boom ended. In Argentina a similar process unfolded with higher spending on social programs and growing popularity during the Kirchner presidency- with commodities exports of grains to China- followed by declining popularity as the economy entered a difficult phase with a fall in the value of the peso, and the election of a new president Mauricio Macri.   ...

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Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, says Poland has achieved a remarkable transformation over 25 years with steady growth of 4% year after year. The bright spot is manufacturing. For emerging nations the average percentage of GDP from manufacturing exports is 22%. Poland is at 33 percent of GDP for manufacturing exports. Countries dependent on commodity exports such as Argentina, Brazil, Russia, lack this steady growth from a manufacturing base and are less likely to cross the line of $15,000 of GDP per person that qualifies for it to be called an "advanced economy" for the IMF. South Korea, the Czech Republic and Poland are some of the countries that have benefited from manufacturing exports. Poland's wages are one third of that in Germany and its currency is cheap, giving it an advantage as an export hub for German companies. Germany is the main destination for exports and the German automobile industry uses the Czech Republic and Poland as export hubs. Poland's and Czech Republic's geographical location near Germany with a highly educated population makes it attractive for German companies. Poland has gone from $2300 per capita GDP to about $13,000 in 25 years according to the IMF, and is likely to be the next country to make it to advanced economy status by 2020, says Sharma. It is important not to run up debt, to manage finances carefully, and to maintain steady growth not growth in spurts interrupted by declines, and have a manufacturing base, says Sharma.  ...

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Some emerging market bonds made money on the bonds of Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia helped negotiate the peace with the FARC guerilla movement in Colombia. Here he points out the changes in South America that have led to the end of guerilla conflicts. This achievement comes after extended conflicts that affected Peru, Colombia, central American countries Nicaragua, San Salvador, Guatemala, following conflicts in Brazil and Argentina that led to the formation of military dictatorships that fought battles with guerilla movements. This goes back to the Castro movement in Cuba against the dictatorship of Batista, and the Cold War during the Krushchev days of the Soviet Union in the sixties. Much of this has ended, yet Santos draws a conclusion that the Western hemisphere is in peace that ignores the legacy of these conflicts. In many places the drug trade has simply moved to places further north, to destabilize governments in central America. The guerillas have become part of the drug trade as ways to integrate them into society have lagged behind or not worked. As a result life is difficult in central America leading to migration northward, similar to migration to Europe from war torn regions in North Africa. Mexico has continued as a key part of the drug trade affecting rural communities in places previously untouched by drugs such as New Hampshire and places in the northeastern U.S., even after a decade of war against drug trafficking gangs by Mexican president Calderon. It also destabilizes Mexican politics such as the murder of 42 students in Guerrero province for civil activism. It is also destabilizing a major democracy such as the U.S. as Donald Trump has sought support from communities devastated by drugs in the U.S., and sought support for a racist approach to politics. For these reasons the more visible conflicts of North and South America are now replaced with a less visible but no less insidious and dangerous mix in politics that has entered civil life and discourse across the region.  ...

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After suffering a deep depression Greece's economy is in 2019 24% smaller than in 2007. It may not be till 2033 that Greece recovers to its precrisis level GDP, says Oxford Economics, a consulting firm. With the creditors of Greece maintaining a tight control and requiring high taxes and high budget surpluses of 3.5% of GDP excluding interest payments, there is very little financial leeway to reduce taxes as the newly elected government of Mr. Mitsotakis of the New Democracy party has stated. Greece spent 8 years till 2018 under an austerity regime set by the European Union overseen by the IMF with eurozone authorites in return for a financial bailout loan package. Spending cuts and tax increases of 40% of GDP led to drop in GDP of 25%. Greece had misrepresented its official spending numbers to eurozone authorites in the years leading upto the crisis, leading to a lack of sympathy from ordinary German taxpayers for the country's situation. Unlike Portugal which was able to increase exports and find ways to reduce the austerity regime with sympathy from Germany, Greece lags behind in foreign investment and is 72nd in the ease of doing business ranking of the World Bank.  Unemployment is falling very slowly and is at 18%. Greece has returned to bond markets with 10 year bond yields of 10%. Growth is stuck at 2%. Pension spending takes up most of the budget, with little left for investment, education and other needs. No parties talk about cutting pensions anymore as a grandparents pension supports many families. The high taxes have hurt the private sector with the most productive people emigrating to other countries in northern Europe and to other parts of the world. About 500,000 left from 2010 to 2017, most are college graduates, and 64% have postgraduate degrees, a survey shows. Most of them will never return as it  is difficult to live and plan a life on a Greek salary. During the financial crises affecting Latin American countries such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina for decades, the expression lost decade became common. Some like Argentina had repeat situations of lost decade before recovering. Even the U.S. suffered badly suffering close to a lost decade with faulty mortgages causing a crisis in 2009. Only Greece has proved that this can happen for nearly three decades. Greece's experience also sullied the euro currency's image, that was further damaged by the austerity policies across the eurozone's financially weaker countries. Lack of transparency and insider groups unable to take up the national interest and pursuing narrow interests left Greece in a bad position with little sympathy from stronger northern European countries such as Netherlands, Sweden, Germany. Today's political crisis for the centre right and centre left parties in Germany and other Northern European countries such as Scandinavia, Netherlands, also stems from this flawed entry of countries such as Greece into the eurozone with poorly managed finances. A combination of Tech creating low wage jobs, erosion of working class, failure of centrist parties free market policies to protect the working class, shift of jobs to low wage countries such as China, had already eroded the situation. The humanitarian response to what was both a economic and war related migration from North Africa  to Europe only worsened the image of these parties with working class people alienating them further. The eurozone countries and the European Union are only gradually recovering from these errors.     ...

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The Goethe Institut is for Germany what the British Council was for Britain and the USIS for the US in the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America as well as Europe. A way to interface the world with ideas that contribute to world culture from Germany, and both influence and grow from the interaction. This is how Carola Lentz its new head in 2020 sees the Geothe-Institut on its 70th anniversary. There are 158 Goethe Instituts in 98 countries. The picture that goes with this article in DW.com shows language students from Ghana on the streets of Burnau, Bavaria, with their host family. It started in 1951 in Munich to spread German language and cultural studies in the world. Pope Francis studied German in his early years at the Goethe Institut while staying with a host family in Boppard, Rhineland-Palatinate, when he came to Germany from Argentina. Carola Letz brings an interesting background to this work as a researcher on societies in Africa, and her study of sociology, politics and languages. She believes the true work is to build conversations with other countries and to engage people inside Germany into this conversation for the first time, a task never undertaken before by the USIS or the British Council. As has happened accidentally and also with the sense of "'arrogance" in the US and Europe towards other less industrially developed countries, people inside European and North American countries were far less equipped with knowledge and understanding of world societies than their representatives overseas in post war period.  Lentz, born 1954. who lives in Mainz near Cologne, the home of Goethe, is an ethnologist and African Studies expert. Lentz sees a new approach of conversations with people in other societies, about an approach that is considerate, not arrogant, for developing joint answers to global questions.  A new exhibit opens on the 70th anniversary at the Berlin museum Hamburger Barnhof- "Take Me to the River," on global environmental changes on November 29, alongside another exhibit "Nation, Narration, Narcosis," on the role of museums in the culture of remembrance. This brings Germans inside the country into this conversation for the first time along with  the thousands of visitors from other countries.     ...

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Argentina's economy minister, Axel Kicillof, and the nationalization of YPF, compensation to Repsol and international creditors. Kicillof lectured on Economics at the University of Buenos Aires. As deputy minister in 2012 he was responsible for the natonalization of oil company YPF, controlled by Repsol. Kicillof was critical of the sale of YPF to Repsol in 1999. In a recent interview he wa critical of "disinformation" campaigns in social media and the psychological effect of media information in creating economic situations such as a run on a national currency. The peso has declined sharply in January 2014. Critics say Kicilloff created some of the problems with international creditors that he is now working to correct and attract foreign investment.