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U.S., China to Sign Deal Easing Trade Tensions

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The U.S. and China sign Phase 1 of the trade agreement in a sign of reduction of trade tensions between the two countries. Difficult issues of state subsidies under China's state enterprise model of development, and technological competition were put off for the future. China made the deal possible by agreeing to double its purchases of agricultural products, and offering to purchase about $200 billion in American goods and services over the next two years. This gives relief to farmers, a key part of Mr.Trump's support base. This also helps achieve a key Trump and U.S. goal of cutting the U.S. trade deficit with China quickly, just as happened decades ago with Japan. 

See the related article and link on how for the first time in decades China's trade surplus with the U.S. is now set on a path for permanent decline. It dropped significantly in 2019 by 12.5% even though China's imports from the U.S. dropped by 21%, based on Chinese customs data released for 2019. With China increasing these imports significantly and the U.S. holding on to tariffs of 25% on $250 billon of China's exports to the U.S. which are outside the Phase 1 agreement, the downward course is set for the next few years for correction of a dangerous trade imbalance. That imbalance was allowed to develop over successive Republican and Democratic administrations. China already has the European Union as its first leading trading partner and south east Asia as its second. China plans to not be so closely intertwined with the U.S. in trade, and yet preserve its state sponsored development model and drive to compete in technology.

China's increased purchases from the U.S. of $200 billon are broken down in terms of farm products- $32 billion, manufactured goods- $80 billion, energy products- $50 billion, services $35 billion.

In effect the U.S. gets its goal of cutting the unsustainable China trade surplus quickly and with certainty in 3-5 years. China uses the period to transition for less trade linkage with the U.S. yet preserving its state sponsored model of development and drive for technological advancement.

 


Robert Lighthizer and other experts call for trade and globalization practices that work for the U.S.

01/06/2010

The failure of the establishment of both parties in the USA to take action in the face of the loss of 5.6 million jobs in the last decade, with $4.3 trillion in trade imbalances. An issue which resonates with voters in the US and could lead to a fundamental realignent of American attitudes to globalization and free trade. The feeling that the free-trade deck is stacked against the USA by Asian countries. China's efforts to keep the yuan dollar exchange rate at levels that favor exports. China's accumulation of over $3 trillion in dollar reserves that are parked mostly in Treasury's that keep U.S. interests low. Distortons in the global economy from the failure to rebalance the world economy hurts China and the U.S.

Grouped Articles

The Obama-Romney Tariff

Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011

US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick

Economist 09/25/2010

Taking On China

New York Times 09/30/2010

Americans Sour on Trade

Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010

The Engine That Pulled Us Out of Recession

Wall Street Journal 03/19/2015

What’s Our Duty to the People Globalization Leaves Behind?

New York Times 01/26/2016


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