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Stretch of Market Volatility Makes It Stormy at the Top
Keywords: Stock Market,
De Aenile describes the volatility in stock markets after the Brexit vote. Earnings growth is slow and expectations are declining. Indexes of emerging markets are trading at 10 times earnings, say experts. The S&P 500 ended the quarter at 19 times earnings, compared to historical average of 15, according to this report. Uncertainty remains high in Europe and the U.S., and monetary policy is stuck in a low interest rate environment.
The disconnect between falling stock markets and the economy in the U.S., China and Europe in 2016
01/21/2016
The growing economy in the U.S. with over 200,000 jobs created on average for each month in 2015, the gradual recovery in Europe, and the stabilizing economy in China, suggest that nervousness in financial markets stems from other factors. The weakness in managing financial markets by the central bank and the government in China since the summer of 2015 has hurt investor confidence. The lack of stimulus plans as the Chinese government and planners work to cut debt in the economy, and the U.S. Fed's decision to gradually and slowly increase rates are twin factors for decline in financial markets, yet these very factors provide stability in the long run.
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Experts say 2016 will continue to show the same uncertainties faced in 2015. In the past tepid performance such as that in 2015 has been followed by strong performance in subsequent years, according to analysts. Emerging markets showed a sharp decline in 2015, with continued uncertainty in 2016. The U.S. markets were essentially flat in 2015.
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By missing the signals of the bubble in financial markets and letting the mortgage crisis develop upto the point that the overleveraged banks had to be rescued and the global economy went into a deep recession, the U.S. Fed created the conditions for the populist movements of 2016. Very low rates designed to help the economy recover hurt savers, further depressing the financial assets of the middle and working class. The lack of access to public colleges hurt upward mobility, and the high cost of tution led to parents assuming large amounts of student debt further depressing their condition. The assets of middle and working class people revealed at a Boston Fed sponsored Inequality conference in Oct. 2014 were shocking- the average net worth of the lower half of the distribution in the U.S., or 62 million households was an average of $11,000, with one quarter at zero net worth, according to Janet Yellen, the chairman of the Fed, America's central bank.
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