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Obama’s Worst Mistake

The New York Times Original article ›
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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents).


The consensus in the Obama administration to support Syria's democracy forces in summer 2011, and the U.S. president's failure to act

08/23/2011

Defense Secretary describes the plans supported by key members of the National Security team to support Syrian democracy forces in the summer of 2011- supported by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Secretary of State Clinton, General Dempsey of the Joint Chiefs, and CIA director Petraeus. The president failed to act because of approaching elections and the general hesitation to act that was displayed since the start of the democracy movement in Tunisia, and then through the movement's spread to Egypt, Libya, followed by Syria. The U.S. failed to grasp an opportunity for the Free World and create goodwill in the Arab world by standing up to its ideals of democracy and freedom.

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Bill Keller of the NYT's message to U.S. president Obama on Egypt and Syria

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The Syria- Turkey border in 2016

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Syrian Rebel Offensive Against Islamic State Sparks Exodus

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Turkey's economy in 2015 as seen from Eskisehir between Istanbul and Ankara.

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Keith Bradsher of the NYT provides glimpses of Turkey's slowing economy from a town set on the high speed rail line between Istanbul and Ankara. The shooting down of a Russian plane means the loss of farm exports to Russia. The wars in Syria and Iraq has reduced the exports to these countries. Cheap Chinese exports have also replaced Turkish exports in some countries. Wages for construction workers have dropped with Syrian refugees taking up jobs at lower wages. Construction continues to grow in Ankara and Istanbul as people from other parts of the Middle East invest in apartments in Turkey as a safe haven.

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Tensions With Russia Add to a Chill in Turkey’s Economy

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John McCain, Lindsey Graham and John Bolton on the contradictions and failure of the Obama policy in Syria and Iraq in 2013-2016

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David Ignatius: Syrian resistance needs U.S. help - The Washington Post

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Secretary of State Kerry makes an unannounced visit to Afghanistan - The Washington Post

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Germany and the influx of Syrian refugees

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For refugees, it’s destination Germany - The Washington Post

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The WSJ on the withdrawal of the European governments from the Middle East and North Africa, the Obama administration's similar policies, and the refugee crisis in Europe

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What happens in North Africa, does not necessarily remain there, says this WSJ editorial, even if European governments and the Obama administration would prefer it to be that way. The withdrawal from the Middle East and North Africa under Hollande, Merkel and Obama, says the Journal, has led to the situation where the entire region is unravelling and being torn apart, leading to millions of refugees in first Turkey and Jordan, and now in Europe. True it says there are risks in intervening, but points to the Iraq where normalcy of life was returning to Baghdad by the end of the Bush administration, and the unraveling beginning only with Hollande (the departure of Sarkozy leaving Cameron alone), and the Obama administration's withdrawal from the Middle East (no action in Libya and Syria, and withdrawal in Iraq), Germany's traditional non-interventional role.

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The Obama presidency and the earlier decisions for Iraq and Syria as seen in September 2014 and May 2015

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In early 2014 op-ed pages of the NYT and WSJ are used by Hillary Clinton and General Jones, former Secretary of State and former National Security Advisor, calling into question Obama's failure to act decisively in Syria and Iraq. By September 2014 the policy appears to be unraveling. Hardly any reporters or critics mention that all the Syrian democracy forces needed was the "no fly zone" offered to Libya. Timely decisive use of American airpower early in the conflict would have enabled the success of the democracy forces in Syria. General Keene called for this in an op-ed on 5/22/2013 and the WSJ editorial on 8/29/2013 refuted claims that this would cost $1 billion. Actually Gen. Keane stated that all that was necessary was to destroy the 50 runways and the air defense system of the Assad regime, which the U.S. had capabilities for even with the Russian support to Assad. It also would have met the early misguided efforts of the Putin government to exert influence in regions against the will of the people in the name of Russian nationalism, which extended following Syria to Eastern Europe. It would have kept U.S. ground forces out and gradually stabilized the region with democratic governments in Syria and Libya- with U.S. economic support and guidance during a transition period. Truman was coming out of the Second World War when he faced and responded to the efforts to extend communist regimes in Greece and southern Europe within a few years of the global conflict. Truman and General Marshall accomplished in Europe what Obama failed to do in North Africa when a challenge as well as an opportunity presented itself. Truman also listened to exceptional leaders in his circle of advisors. The U.S. has strategic interests in the Middle East and concern for the welfare of the region and its people. This was neglected in preference for involvement in Afghanistan, where involvement is only for the purpose of keeping a failing state from becoming a haven for terrorism. A permanent settlement between India and Pakistan c

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First Batch of Hillary Clinton Emails Captures Concerns Over Libya

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A detailed account of the events in September 2013 involving Obama, Kerry, Hagel, White House and Congressional officials as president Obama reversed policy on Syria

09/16/2013

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Gen. Keane and Pletka on the U.S. option to degrade air defense system in Syria in 2013- "no fly zone" option

05/22/2013

Gen. Keane and Pletka say inaction can be more risky than action with the spillover of the war in Syria to neighboring countries. The Assad regime's attack on civilian populations and use of chemical weapons, the democracy movement in Syria, and the support from the Arab world and Turkey, are critical factors that would bring the U.S. credibility in the region and gain the respect of people in the region, if action is taken in 2013. They point out that the air defense system in Syria even with Russian systems can be rendered inactive without much effort.

Grouped Articles

Jack Keane and Danielle Pletka: How to Stop Assad's Slaughter

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Andrew Roberts: Syria's Gas Attack on Civilization

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A Veteran Saudi Power Player Works To Build Support to Topple Assad

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