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New Bailout Is a Reprieve for Greece, but Doubts Persist
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IMF forecasts for Greece's growth rate are proving too optimistic. The IMF forecast is for zero growth in 2013, and increases of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015. Even in its pessimistic projections the IMF forecasts a 1% downturn in 2013 and growth of 1.3% and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015. The government sector was a large part of the economy. Now that this is shrinking, the export sector which only represents 20% of GDP is too small to generate needed growth. Greece also lacks the competitiveness and the large foreign enterprises that operate in Ireland, making growth less likely. A major problem is also the 40 billion euros Greeks have withdrawn from their banks in recent years. Even the figure of 120% of GDP that is expected in 2020 under the March 2012, 130 billion euro bailout is a very hypothetical figure, having no sound basis. Landon Thomas cites a confidential study the IMF had circulated in February 2012, showing the long term prospect for Greek debt if growth does not materialize because of lack of competitiveness. It would increase the debt to GDP ratio to 178% by 2015, and leave it at the current level of 160% of GDP in 2020. Some experts say the whole debt sustainability analysis makes no sense, with the question being insolvency in the case of Greece, not illiquidity. And requiring a focus to bring debt to manageable level to create prospects for growth. The Wall Street Journal emphasizes this in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012.
Why the March 2012 Greece bailout protects the EU, but is bad for Greece and for democracy
06/30/2011
Nothing to be proud of, says the Journal in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012. For Greece the terms leave no hope for a return to growth, and that the two political parties in Greece were required to pledge their support for austerity measures against overwhelming public opposition in Athens says little for democracy. It would have been better for Greece to go into a planned default 2 years ago with steeper haircuts for European banks and reducing Greece's debt to a manageable level lower than the over 120% of GDP in 2020 of the March 2012 bailout plan, says the Journal.
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