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Slowing Inflation Cheers Fed
Keywords:
Tags: Current Focus, United States,
Expectations of lower inflation in the U.S. for 2012. The Commerce Department showed inflation slowing with consumer prices up 2.5% over the prior year in November, down from 2.7% in October and 2.9% in September. The Labor Department's consumer price index went up by 0.8% annual rate in the last 3 months. Increase in labor costs are also mild. Hourly wages of private sector U.S. workers were up 1.8% in November 2011 over the prior year. Commodity demand in emerging markets is slowing with lower growth, which reduces pressure on commodity prices. The consumer price index is expected to rise by 1.2% in 2012, according to J.P. Morgan economists. The Federal Reserve in its recent statement after a Dec. 13 meeting stated it expects inflation at below 2%.
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The Fed's policy according to Neil Irwin of the Washington Post, is to move in the direction of reducing the composition of its bond portfolio rather than printing new money for new bond purchases. That policy of printing money for bond purchases came under criticism from Republican presidential candidates and there were three dissenters at the last FOMC meeting. Mindful of this the Fed is now considering a policy called a "switch," of buying more long term bonds and reducing the short term bonds in its portfolio. This would reduce long term interest rates. The impact on the housing market of past and current moves is limited by the fact that the mortgage markets are not functioning properly, as a large proportion of homeowners are under water (owe more than their house is worth). The Fed's effort come under its mandate to keep unemployment in check in addition to inflation.
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