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The State of the Union Address in 2026 cited the enormous impact on the world we know today over 2 centuries by this Nation. Jefferson breathed his last in 1826, between that and two persons in the chamber- including Air Force pilot who is 100 years old- between 1826 and 1926 when this pilot was born is a span of 100 years, and in this pilot's lifespan another 100 years. In this period, a couple of generations in our lifetimes, so much was achieved, said the president. So much of the address was about the potential ahead following the heroic efforts of the past. We are part of something larger than us, says the president, and this larger than us is the collective consciousness of the American Nation. "Two-hundred fifty years is a long time in the life of a nation. But in another sense, it's really a mere moment in the eye of history. Two of the gentlemen we met in the gallery this evening took their first breaths one century ago. One hundred years before that, on July 4th, 1826, the author of the Declaration of Independence, brilliant Thomas Jefferson, drew his last breath. Just a single long human life span separates the giants who declared and won our independence from the heroes who stand among us tonight. Everything our nation has done, everything we have achieved, has been the work of those few great lifetimes. In those brief chapters, Americans built this nation from 13 humble colonies into the pinnacle of human civilization and human freedom. The strongest, wealthiest, most powerful, most successful nation in all of history. Americans ventured out across the daunting and dangerous continent. We carved pass through an unforgiving wilderness, settled a boundless frontier, and tamed the beautiful but very, very dangerous wild west. From empty marshes and wide-open plains, we raised up the world's greatest cities. Together we mastered the world's mightiest industries, shattered history's monstrous tyrannies. And we liberated millions from the chains of fascism, communism, oppression and terror." Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR and JFK, through their efforts and the efforts of scientists and industrial pioneers, and of the People of the United States, of educators and scientific endeavors, so much was achieved, and so much lies ahead. ...

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U.S. states want flexibility in applying the Medicaid program which covers 53 million Americans earning lower levels of income. This amount was $11,616 a year for working parents in 2009, according to the Kaiser Fondation. Some states have a higher income level, as high as $48,400. The problem for states are serious budget deficits, with Medicaid comparing with education as a major cost. The recession and job losses has added 8 million Americans to Medicaid rolls. The Federal government supports 57% of the Meddicaid budget on average. A provision in the 2010 health care law says states cannot limit Medicaid eligibility, or they would lose funding by the federal government. The Obama adminstration's position is that eligibility or provider cuts will not bring in large savings, and will allow larger cost-sharing by Medicaid users, with only minor cuts in eligibility. Its position is also that the law does not give the federal government waiver authority. Some of the issues raised relate to the structure of Medicaid cost and its rapid escalation. Health and Human Services says 1% of benificiaries, especially the long term care, use up 25% of the Medicaid expenditures. One astonishing fact is that two thirds of all U.S. nursing home residents are on Medicaid. The total cost is rising, from $187 billion for Medicaid in 2000, to $346 billion in 2009, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In July 2011, $26 billion in additional federal Medicaid funding expires, which will be added to state expenses as they struggle with large deficits. In states like Maine, with generous benefits, about one fourth of all residents are in the Medicaid program. ...

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Renewed calls for higher capital reserves by banking regulators and Britain's Independent Banking Commission after $2 billion in losses at UBS. The losses were a result of derivatives trades made at UBS's London trading desk.

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A report by two former Census Bureau officials, Gordon Green and John Coder, shows the inflation adjusted median household income in the U.S. declined by 6.7%, to 49,909, between June 2009 and June 2011. From December 2007 to June 2009 household income declined by 3.2%. The forces behind this are the large number of people not working or not looking for work who are outside the labor force, and the hourly pay for workers not keeping up with inflation. Prof Henry Farber at Princeton, says his study shows that people who lost jobs in the recession found work again with an average of 17.5% less income than in their prior jobs. This makes this downturn very different than earlier downturns, and giving credence to the argument "that this time its different." Another statistic from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows why- in the period December 2007 to June 2009 average length of time for a person who lost a job to be unemployed increased from 16.6 weeks to 24.1 weeks, with the same figure up to 40.5 weeks in September 2011. Higher declines for Hispanics and other minorities further increased income inequalities. Coder and Green call the impact a substantial decline in the American standard of living....

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The Romney campaign is trying to keep Obama's support among Hispanics and Latinos to 65-70%. Latino leaders say Romney's positions on immigration during the primaries, when he chose to go to the right of Governor Perry, have affected their perceptions and his more recent centrist positions are being discounted. Republicans are awakening to their weak position in the fastest growing demographic in the U.S. Positions on abortion, gay marraige and religion are affecting a portion of the Latino vote. One question is how enthusiastic is the voter turnout, especially because president Obama failed to take up immigration reform in his first term and gave it a lower priority.

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The former head of U.S. Homeland Security ministry, Mr. Chertoff, and the former head of NATO, Mr. Anders Rasmussen, say the U.S. and European allies are not prepared to meet Russian meddling in elections two years after the U.S. elections and elections in the last year in Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Both co-chair Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity. They expect 20 elections between now and 2020, and see 20 opportunities for Russian meddling in these elections- suggesting the response to the recent meddling is very inadequate. They cite the shift from fake news to hyper partisan narrative used in the Italian election. This approach uses some content that is true to weave a narrative that leads to an exaggerated version of events. It was used on immigration to appeal to immigrant weary Italians to lead to a situation where the anti-immigrant party Northern League attracted a large portion of the vote. This approach is not new as it was used by pro-Brexiters with ads showing an unending wave of immigrants crossing European borders. Suggesting Britain itself was facing this wave of immigration, using pictures of immigrants from Africa crossing the borders of Hungary and Austria. Placed on buses and billboards this influenced the election, including hyper narrative stories about what how the UK was sending 350 million pounds a week to the European Union which could go to the NHS instead. Britain's Liberal Party leader Nick Clegg and Joe Biden former Vice President are members of the new Commission. ...

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Pollock's interview with Geroge Shultz, Reagan's senior economic advisor and Secretary of State, at his office in the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He says the U.S. can find its way out of the current economic crisis the way it did during the early Reagan years. On the Fed's loose monetary policy he says the Bernanke Fed's contribution to the economic crisis was very easy money. Now that we have it we realize that its going to take something different from easy money to get the economy moving- not just more money. Three quarters of the debt issued by the U.S. in the last year was bought by the Fed, and the Fed is monetizing debt when it buys debt because at some time this ends up getting out into the economy. Shultz sees the tax rules as being about more than rates. Corporate tax rates should be lowered by cleaning up preferences. But what is most important is predictability and an environment where business feels there is less uncertainty when investing. Shultz says Romney should read his memo to Reagan before Reagan assumed office, excerpted in the WSJ, "Advice to a New President," May 26, 2012. He also recommends John Taylor's new book- "First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity." ...

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U.S. airline stocks surged in 2014. Energy stocks crashed in the 4th quarter of 2014 losing over 30% of their value as oil inventories surged. Russia and Greece were the worst performing countries with losses over 30% for funds in these countries. India stock funds returns exceeded 30%. High yield bonds performed badly, with higher returns on investment grade assets. Apple continued growth following the introduction of the iPhone 6, with the stock value growing by 38% in 2014.

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Japan's central bank chief, Shirakawa, has come under criticism from both the governing Democratic Party of Japan and the LDP for not acting strongly enough to support Japan's economic growth in 2012. He diluted efforts of setting a 1% inflation target by showing a lack of determination, saying the Bank of Japan could only do so much to tackle deflation, with effort to tackle structural inefficiencies required from the government. The impact of this was to strengthen the yen which weakens Japanese exporters. The LDP candidate for prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in Dec. 2012 general elections, was particularly critical of Shirakawa. Abe is likely to appoint Takatoshi Ito, a Tokyo University economist as the new central bank chief. Ito says Shirakawa talked down each BOJ monetary easing move with cautious language, describing it as a cold shower following each move. This is very different from the talk of the U.S. central bank chief Ben Bernanke, who gave clear signals to financial markets in his statements following monetary easing efforts of QE 1-3. Abe prefers a 2% inflation target and an activist central bank policy comparable to the U.S. Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke. Financial markets and exchange rates for yen have responded positively to Abe's policy goals....

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China's central bank reduces its reserve requirement ratio, required money set aside by commercial banks and not used for lending. It lowered by half percentage point to 13% the amount of reserves Chinese banks are required to set aside. As the economy has cooled recently with trade tensions with the U.S., China's growth has slowed to 6%. The move frees up $126 billion for lending. In a speech this week president Xi used the word "struggle" over a dozen times. The State Council has plans to allocate more money for vocational training, to expand railways construction.  Analysts of S&P recently estimated China's economic growth over the next decade at 4.6% on average if the trade dispute gets to a stalemate, if trade dispute worsens it could drop to 3.7%. The trade dispute has dampened the mood at China Development Forum in Beijing, with attendees saying the distrust between the U.S. and China is based on deep concerns about each other. Besides the lending increase planned, the central government is pushing local governments to find projects to create jobs. Local governments fear this would worsen the already high debt burden they carry. ...

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The Wall Street Journal looks back at president Trump's first year in office from the inauguration speech to the passage of the new tax law. Race and immigration issues form the background of much of the domestic politics as Democrats prepare to shutdown government by December 2017 over a comment by the president. This happens during a meeting between the two parties on the Dreamer legislation to allow children of people illegally in the U.S. to stay in the country, when the president makes a derogatory remark about immigrants from Haiti and says he prefers immigrants from Norway. Efforts to repeal the Obama healthcare legislation fail during the first year. Democrats win a Senate seat in Alabama. A special counsel, Mr. Mueller, is appointed to investigate the Russian meddling in the U.S. presidential election. The tax law is skewed towards more tax cuts for the wealthy than the middle class, with the increase in the deficit not justifying the cut as infrastructure and other needs in health and education require funding. In international affairs Trump recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and takes a strong stand on Iran and North Korea.    ...

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Global supply chains in industries such as clothing and other consumer items, in autos, and in tech products are changing as the shift away from China continues with the Trump administration's tariffs war. The clothing and other consumer products manufacturing is shifting away from China. Auto production is centred on regional hubs for manufacturing under renegotiated trade agreements such as the one that replaced NAFTA in North America, correcting imbalances in wages and U.S. content. Mexico gets to stay as a auto hub with exports of $50 billion in 2018 but under new rules that the Trump administration sees as fair. India is being considered as an auto production hub in Asia. In tech products China continues to have an edge but this is changing gradually. Samsung has built a huge smartphone manufacturing complex in Vietnam. South east Asia is a beneficiary, so is Mexico. In the future India stands to gain as its manufacturing base expands and infrastructure develops. In this changed scenario China will be moving to produce more advanced technological products, as it shifts away from lower end products. This will also correct some of the grossly unfavorable trade imbalances that have developed with the U.S. ...

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offered a way out of the stalemate in talks between the Obama White House and Republican leaders Boehner and Cantor. McConnell's proposal designed to meet the August 2nd 2011 deadlinefor raising the U.S. debt limit is to give the President new authority to raise the federal debt limit. It would place the entire responsibility for raising the debt limit on the President. Under this proposal Republicans would not have to vote to raise the debt limit. Republicans can then shift the effort for large spending cuts to the congressional appropriations process.

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The Trump administration released its framework for NAFTA negotiations. The framework is designed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and promote "Buy America" provisions. It will challenge Mexico on labor and environmental matters, which is likely to win the support of Democrats. A mechanism for preventing countries from getting unfair advantage through currency manipulation is part of the framework, yet less of an issue with Mexico and Canada. It will also work to protect U.S. trade interests in an effort to appeal to workers who supported Trump in the 2016 election. Overall it does not deviate much from established U.S. trade policy, according to the WSJ. For this reason the new guidelines were welcomed by the Mexican and Canadian governments. Mexico and Canada also see this as an effort to modernize the agreement to reflect changes in technology and commerce since NAFTA was signed. Under fast track trade promotion authority the president's Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer can start negotiations in 30 days. One of the matters up for change is the Chapter 19 dispute settlement mechanism which makes it easier for Canada and Mexico to avert trade sanctions. Mexico's economic prospects have improved as the NAFTA renegotiation avoids the sharp rhetoric of the election campaign. The Mexican peso which traded at 22 to the dollar in January 2017 following the U.S. election, is now trading in July 2017 at 18 to the dollar.   ...

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The American Israel Public Affairs Committee meeting at a large convention center and calls for military action against Iran. Milbank says the situation is reminiscent of Bush's statements about Iraq in 2003 before the invasion- that though Bush insisted that "war is my last choice," war was coming and was being planned. And he points out whatever doubts President Obama and his advisors may have about the effectiveness of a military strike in moving Iran away from nuclear weapons development, the U.S. President may be setting in motion developments leading to war.

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Noam Scheiber of NYT provides this illuminating account of how the changes in employment affected Hispanic Americans since 2004. About 500,000 jobs were created in the U.S. construction industry in 2014. Of this 315,000 jobs went to Hispanics with the highest number in California, Florida, Texas and Illinois, which have large Hispanic population. This has enabled Hispanic employment to reach the pre-recession levels in 2015 before this happens for blacks and whites, according to the Economic Report of the President. The drop in immigrants from Mexico crossing the border as economic conditions deteriorated in the U.S. in 2009-2012, and the stricter enforcement, has resulted in native born Americans benefitting most from the jobs created. Hispanics took the biggest hit following the recession in 2009-2012, with a loss of 700,000 jobs for the 3 million Hispanics employed in construction. During the 2004-2007 construction boom Pew Research shows 1.6 million jobs going to immigrants, of which 800,000 went to native born Hispanics, before the collapse in construction in 2009. This time the recovery is benefitting native born Americans most....

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The downturn starting in the 2008 financial crisis destroyed a huge portion of the average American's personal wealth- some estmates running to 40%. This was followed by periods of unemployment which depleted savings accounts, lower wage jobs, and followed by further erosion of savings accounts with little or no interest. The gains on the stock market have one problem- the benefits go in large part to affluent Americans who are already well prepared for retirement. A U.S. Senate report shows a huge retirement savings deficit- about $6.6 trillion, which comes to $57,000 for every American household.

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Corporate concentration with larger companies, each more dominant in its industry, and fewer companies controlling half of U.S. corporate profits, are trends economists say that hurt wages, create income inequality, shrink the middle class and lead to less consumer welfare. About 30 companies control half of U.S. corporate profits in 2018 compared to 109 in 1975, according to economists at the University of Arizona. Fewer companies in each industry mean less competition for workers, and less leverage for workers in setting wages. Apple Computer just reached the trillion dollar size and Amazon is close to doing this with its dominance in online shopping. Amazon is known for lower wages in its industry. Apple has some of the highest profit margins in  industry, and trends show the margins have risen between cost of making a product and price in an unprecedented way. The result is higher corporate profits and labor commanding a declining share of the nation's wealth. ...

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Use of Huawei's equipment for 5G technology upgrade of India's telecom networks is seen as less of a cybersecurity threat in India and attractive in terms of its lower prices and technological advancement. U.S. efforts to prevent the use of Huawei's 5G networks equipment because of cyber security threat are hitting a roadblock in India where the cost of the upgrade to 5G is a major advantage with the Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei.

Germany is considering letting Huawei supply telecom equipment after its cybersecurity agency report showed Huawei could not siphon off sensitive data for use by the Chinese government. Data rates for 4G networks have been slashed in India by 90% with the introduction of the Jio network. Hundreds of millions of customers make India a large enough market for new 5G technologies to be attractive for China's Huawei, making it harder for the U.S. to block Huawei in other countries.

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GM stock was trading on the New York Stock Exchange at $29.97 on April 18, 2011. It has dropped from the $33 a share IPO in November 2010. To breakeven the U.S. government would have to sell its stake in GM at $53 a share. The government is planning to sell its stake in GM this summer according to informed sources. At the current price this would mean the government would take a loss of $11 billion. The IPO in November reduced the government's stake from 61% to 26.5%. Higher gas prices have reduced sales of trucks and SUV's and the sales incentives in January and February 2011 are expected to reduce earnings.

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Fitch Ratings reports that 10 of the largest U.S. money market funds have combined assets of $755 billion, and as of May 2011, half of these assets are in instruments issued by European banks. These assets have been held for 5 years. In the event of a crisis it is feared that the funds will withdraw from the European market. Money market fund holdings for the ten largest funds show that no European bank has more than 7% of its short term funding from these money market funds, according to Fitch. A combined withdrawal would affect global credit markets.

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Iran's (IRGC's not the people of Iran who are protesting) strategy in talks is to stall peace talks, to use the help of global media which is creating perception for Iran, and see if the strategy of no nuclear materials turned over to Russia or some other country, see if that strategy works. This is  what German Foreign Minister Wadephul is saying on Day 16 of the Naval Blockade. Earlier this week German chancellor Merz called it unfortunate that the Iran War is continuing in explaining to ordinary Germans why the German economy is slowing down, yet he understands the danger posed by nuclear weapons in Iran or for that matter anywhere inthe volatile and explosive Middle East. Almost like the volatile and explosive Balkans that ignited World War I in 1914. This strategy of IRGC Iran does much irreparable damage to the Iranian economy in weeks to come. Iranian protests were intended to put the economy on a new path in which not just students, the middle class in the bazaars, the younger generation of Iranians who had the most to lose participated. Why is this happening? It is happening because of the complicated politics of the Middle East and centuries old differences within the Islamic world between different sectarian beliefs and cultures. It is not happening because of the US. The US cannot be responsible for what colonial empires of the British and French did in this region in the 1920's by creating artificial states of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, out of the Arab portion of the collapsed Ottoman Empire defeated in World War I with Shia, Sunni populations in these states mixed up into unmanageable states. Five decades of wars in the Middle East are the result of these unmanageable artificial states of French and British Empires by 1921. The British Empire also controlled Iran in the 1900's and its oil resources. There was no involvement of America as the British and French did what they wanted to do even in the Treaty of Versailles that ended WWI.  The fall of the pro-Soviet Mossadegh regime in 1956 was the only fragmentary situation which is an anti Soviet Cold War move by the US in 1952, and was done by a group that had British connections deep inside the Eisenhower administration led by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles that took this unfortunate step for America (looking back over  5 decades of wars). A British oriented group was active inside the Republican party that continued to operate in the Reagan administration's involvement in support for Iraq in its war with Iran. And which no longer exists in the Republican party led by DJT which puts America First, grasps the fact of unmanageable states of British and French Empires and seeks to distance the US from the Middle East. Gandhi and Patel (and Jinnah) avoided the creation of such a state in British India's partition into India and Pakistan. Afghanistan is simply an extension of this Middle Eastern complicated setup, including 9/11. Why is all this important? Arab Middle East is a dangerous place for nuclear weapons- this is all the US is trying to accomplish, thankfully without the cooperation of the British and French whose Empires are responsible for the creation of a hodge podge mix of peoples in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq which (check this out) never existed before British and French Mandates of 1921. The global and American media that sees DJT Republicans as too conservative on cultural issues and the political establishment intending to return to power have completely obscured or not presented this side of the Middle East, yet is key to devising a policy that keeps America out of Middle East wars but keeps the goal of no nuclear weapons in this powderkeg of a region. ...

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This WSJ editorial says the Corker-Cardin compromise that requires the U.S. president to submit any nuclear deal with Iran to the U.S. Congress for debate, is the best option for both Democrats and Republicans who are skeptical of such a deal. It says amendments by senators Cruz and Rubio will not be effective. What the Corker-Cardin compromise developed by senators Corker and Cardin of the Foreign Relations Committee accomplishes, is letting the American people through their elected representatives get a full and complete debate on the merits and demerits of the deal. Democrats in the Senate are also concerned about their election chances after Mr. Obama leaves office, and will want to have a fair debate of the pros and cons before voting, says the Journal. This debate will bring more light to the questions that worry critics the most- how will compliance by Iran be secured, and can snapback sanctions work if China, Russia and other European nations go the other way. Congressional review puts a higher level of scrutiny for any agreement before it moves forward. A requirement that the government submit a review every 90 days on compliance to Congress also gives president Obama's successor a chance to reassess the situation....

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The U.S. Supreme Court  narrows the scope of the ban to people who have no bonafide relationship with a person or entity in the U.S., and allows partial implementation of the ban on 6 countries sought by the Trump administration. The court will hear the full case with oral arguments in October to decide. Earlier lower courts had reversed the travel ban, and president Trump filed an emergency appeal at the high court. The narrowing of the implementation is also applied to refugees. Chief Justice Roberts worked to negotiate a compromise on a middle approach, getting Justices Kennedy and the four liberal justices on board for the unsigned opinion. Conservative Justices Alito, Thomas and Gorsuch offered a partial dissent saying that the compromise was not workable in practice.

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Mary Schapiro, head of the U.S. S.E.C., joins Promontory Financial, a consulting firm set up by former Comptroller of the Currency managers to act as a "bank doctor" for banks that expect to face regulatory scrutiny from government regulatory agencies. In one settlement for mortgage debt which banks settled for $9.3 billion, Promontory Financial was paid $2 billion, according to this WSJ report.