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According to analysts Yahoo's 24% stake in Alibaba and its stake in Yahoo Japan is what gives its share price momentum. U.S. Yahoo operations are estimated by Topeka Capital Markets to provide only about $10 of Yahoo's value per share. Alibaba's operations as a retailer in China account for $30 of the value per share, and Yahoo Japan $7 per share in value. Yahoo's current share price in Jan 214 is $40, having doubled in the past year. Analysts say there is not much CEO Marissa Mayer can do to reverse the slow decline in Yahoo revenues as it competes with Google, Facebook and other competitors for premium display advertising.

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Banco Santander, Brazil, sold 600 million units at a price of 23.5 reais each, according to a filing with Brazil's regulator. With each unit representing 55 common shares and 50 preferred shares. The offering was increased from a planned 525 million to 600 million units so that investor demand could be met. Santander's US traded stock was priced at $13.50 each. Santander following a series of acquisitions is Brazil's third largest bank after Itau Unibanco and Bradesco, having a 10.2% market share. It is also the largest IPO for Brazil. The growing demand for emerging market securities is evident in the rate at which the Bovespa Brazil Index jumped in 2009.

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Martin Peers of WSJ says he thinks the $250 million infusion from Carlos Slim may buy too little time for New York Times company, if it does not do more aggressive cost cutting and asset sales. The asset sales are going to be difficult for media business in this environment with declining ad spending. In the first 9 months of 2008 revenue fell 6.5% to $2.18 billion but production, selling general and administrative expenses fell only 1.9% to $1.99 billion, says Peers so its cost base is not shrinking fast enough. And the 14% interest for the Slim investment raises interest costs from $50 million to $74 million a year.

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Vanguard's Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis, says there is a 40% chance of a recession in the U.S. by 2020, and that the prospects for the stock market have worsened quite a bit. U.S. stocks are expected to return 3.9% down from the earlier prediction of 8% in 2013 over 10 years annualized. In Europe the stocks are expected to return 6.5% down from 8.7% earlier prediction in 2013.

Bonds and cash offer safer alternatives with attractive rates.

Vanguard's 10 year annualized returns for a diversified portfolio of U.S. bonds is up from 1.7% in 2013 to 3.3%, for Treasury bonds 3.0%, and for international bonds up from 1.8% to 2.9%. Money market funds also offer relatively attractive returns as safe haven on 10 year annualized basis of 2.9% up from 1.5%. For the lower risk money market funds are attractive to investors for making adjustments.

 

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Business Week's Chad Terhune points out that the health reform bill that passed Congress will do little to restrain the overbilling by pharmaceutical companies, medical device and equipment makers. Chad cites numbers from the U.S. Health and Human Services Department that shows $47 billion in Medicare spending went to dubious claims in the year ending Sept 30, 2009. This is 10% of the $440 billion Medicare program. And 10% of the Medicaid program also goes to dubious claims. Consider then that Congres allocated $10 million annual increase to fight fraud. A suit filed by a former Siemens manager at the federal court in Philadelphia states that Siemens routinely overbilled the Veterans Affairs Department and other governmental agencies by humndreds of millions of dollars for MRI and CT scan machines.

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Email exchanges between OMB staffers and Obama administration officials, released exclusively to the Washington Post, show the Obama administration urging the OMB to speed up its decision on the half a billion dollar loan to Solyndra. This was part of stimulus funds to the solar industry. Solyndra was a favorite of the Obama administration according to the Washington Post, and aides to Rahm Emmanuel and other officials sent emails urging speeding up approval. OMB officials in their replies stated they were under pressure. One email by a senior OMB staffer sent to McSweeney, Biden's domestic policy advisor, Aug 31, 2009, said: "we have ended up with a situation of having to do rushed approvals on a couple of occasions (and we are worried about Solyndra at the end of the week)... we would prefer to have sufficient time to do our diligence reviews." Other emails referred to "the time pressure we are under to sign-off on Solyndra," and indicated "there isn't time to negotiate." Solyndra had large investments by the funds operated for the family foundation of George Kaiser, an Obama fundraiser....

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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Chinese president Xi's determination to make good on the slogan "Housing is for living, not for speculation," by imposing a property tax on homes in 30 cities, is facing resistance within the Communist party and from local governments. Mr Xi hopes to squeeze out the excesses of the adoption of capitalist market systems in China since 2000. China's government opted to get feedback on this idea and the feedback is largely negative forcing the government to scale it back and look at other alternatives such as affordable housing to make home purchases accessible.  Some reasons for the pushback are that it is becoming a social stability issue and risks alienating officials within the ruling party and homeowners. The fact is that 90% of urban Chinese families own their homes and housing related industry makes up about a third of China's output. Also significant is that 80% of China's wealth is tied up in real estate. What could happen is that if housing prices drop in China urban consumers might cut back on spending because they feel poorer. Party officlals advised against introducing property tax in 30 cities. Now it is scaled back to ten cities, and a new law could take till 2025 to introduce property taxes in the whole of China. Cities that are likely to be used for the property tax now are Shanghai, Chongqing, where an annual charge is levied on second homes since 2011. Cities added to the list would be Shenzen, Hangzhou, China has financed much of its industrialization through land sales by the Communist local governments in a country where land ownership was with the national Communist government after the revolution in 1949.  Mr. Xi wrote in Qiushi party journal that "we should actively and steadily promote the legislation and reform of real estate tax, and do a good job in the pilot work." Local communist governments get about one third of their revenues from selling land to property developers, and they are anxious that a tax on real estate would make demand and price for the land they sell to drop drastically. To get some idea of this- the local governments had $1 trillion in revenues last year. ...

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The place is Spain, see adjacent article on places within Spain. If you know Spanish that is an added advantage to talk to the locals. It has changed over the years. In the 1990's one could go to Madrid and freely walk out of the Puerta de Atocha main train station there with little traffic. Over the years after the financial crisis Madrid and Spain suffered. Under PM Pedro it has recovered. Yet it is not the same with international tourism from China, India, US having made visits crowded and less friendly. There is the garbage can index for tourism that tells you something is wrong when garbage cans are overflowing- it happened as tourism jumped to France in the last 2 decades- with garbage overflowing outside Notre Dame before renovation. (After 1993 Japan removed all garbage cans from streets.) About 100 million tourist visited France in 2024 and 80 million to Spain. It brings $100 billion in tourism receipts to Spain and about $80 billion each for France and UK, so that it is a key source of revenue for countries. How to make trips that avoid the rush - careful planning for season and month, finding the right places depending on one's interests nature, history, science, or other, and avoiding tours as there are plenty of resources to do it on one's own, finding right places to stay and visit, using local transport, tram and speed trains in Europe, giving enough time for each place, talking to locals and taking a lesson on Rocket languages online which uses locals and practices word pronunciation so you sound like a local. ...

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For 2025 US stocks S&P 500 returns 19%, foreign stocks in Europe 36%. An extraordinary year for foreign stocks with Germany's big investments in the economy. Actually the average S&P stock was down 3.7%. It was the large investments in AI that propelled the US stock markets S&P 500 to the 19% gain.  AI investment may take a long time to be profitable and some companies may lose money yet the building of data centers creates demand for construction activity, and tariffs are bringing larger investments into the US economy. Media skeptical about tariffs led to many missing the surge in stocks. It was the same overseas after years of Merkel and limits placed in the constitution on needed spending, and the SPD coaltition struggling to get through FDP obstruction to investment spending. Chancellor Merz of CDU joined the SPD to make a big $1 trillion investment in German infrastructure and defense, and removed the constitutional brake on investment Merkel had unwisely put in, with so much of Germany's infrastructure and digital in bad shape. This pushed up European stocks that had languished under the austerity logic of Cameron/Johnson-Merkel. This also was missed by many as the old logic was suddenly and quickly taken out with Russia emboldened in Ukraine taking over much of the eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Defense is now a rapidly growing part of the German economy. 2025 was a year of sudden and rapid change in the world economy with tariffs, US investment deals, and Germany taking on defense and infrastructure, which few could predict. And in which the media created confusion by saying the opposite of what was required from investors. ...

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Browning points out the record Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) average was not in 2007 but in 2000 when adjusted for inflation- on Jan 14, 2000. Since 1994 consumer prices measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have risen by 55%. Using 1994 dollars the March 5, 2013 closing DJIA average is at 9256, the 2007 high at 10194, and the record on Jan 14, 2000 at 10424, according to calculations made by Bespoke Investment Group. In inflation adjusted terms these calculations show the Dow barely making any progress in relation to the 2000 figure. When dividends and taxes are included, Browning says the inflation adjusted Dow is still not back up to the 2000 level. For retirees and sensible investors the real value of this money has to be taken account. Yale University professor, who founded the CAPE cyclically adjusted P/E, confirms what Browning says in an article in the WSJ March 10, 2013. There Shiller says that the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index has not made it to the 2000 level, so that investors have not made up for money lost in inflation in 13 years....

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The Wash. Post says the former president's speech as it wore on for 90 minutes rambling on without clarity on discussion of issues and policies for the future was a missed opportunity. Nothing was said about bringing down the cost of living when so many actions on multiple fronts are needed. Nothing on climate change or climate change action but leaving it out out of denial it exists during the worst heat waves and floods in a century. It is now Biden's turn to spell out the details of policies for cost of living action step after step of action, says the Post. Post readers say so far the Post titles and phrases it uses are more out of social media and ask ominously is it itself turning into social media as shown by the post of Letters it has received on coverage of Biden and the future 2024-2028 on this Lyrarc page.

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Restaurants in UK have large price increases. UK restaurant owners say they are facing a squeeze with 55% of revenue going to pay taxes in 2026, and 45% left for rent, employees wages, electricity, food and other costs. Unclean streets and closure of restaurants during covid affect the prospects in the restaurant business. 38% of restaurant customers say they cannot afford to go to restaurants the way they used to.

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Greece announced a speeding up of its privatization plans to sell 50 billion euros worth of state assets over 5 years after pressure from Germany and other EU members. Greece will sell 5.5 billon euros of assets in 2011 up from a target of 2-4 billion euros.It will sell stakes in a state owned bank, in Hellenic Postbank, in 2 state owned water utilities, in Hellenic Telecommuncations, and a state gambling monopoly.

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Laffer says that starting in September 2008, the Bernanke Fed has radically increased the monetary base, comprised of currency in circulation, member bank reserves held at the Fed, and vault cash, by almost $1 trillion. See graph. The percent increase in the monetary base is the largest increase in the last 50 years by a factor of 10, he says, and its outside of anything we have ever experienced. The currency in circulation component which previously comprised 95% of the monetary base, has risen by a little less than 10% while bank reserves have increased 20 fold. With such large reserves banks are lending more money. The 12 month growth rate of M1 is now in the 15% range. But he sees reduced demand for money as confidence is restored in the banking system. He sees the drop in output and manufacturing and employment leading to further reduction in the demand for money. His view is that the reduced demand for money, and the rapid growth in the money supply, will lead to higher interest rates and inflation, unlike anything experienced in th 1970's. The backdrop to this is the huge liabilities taken on by the federal government in the auto and banking bailouts, and through the stimulus and other programs, with a deficit he projects at 13% of GDP. Steps the Fed could take such as issuing $1 trillion in new bonds to contract the monetary base, become difficult, considering that the Treasury plans issuance of $2 trillion in new bonds in the next 12 months. The alternative is to increase the reserve requirements of banks to restrain the growth in the money supply. A too rapid contraction of the money supply would cause the economy to go back into a recession. See Paul Krugman in the NYT, June 15, 2009, who cautions against reversing course. Krugman says the Fed increased reserve requirements in 1937, leading to putting the economy back into a slump. Krugman responds to Laffer by saying that the economy faces deflationary trends, and is in a liquidity trap where policymakers cannot cut interest rates further, making inflation less of a threat at this time. Krugman says overcrowding of private investment is not happening, as government is only stepping in where private investors have retreated....

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Pello Bilbao becomes the first Spaniard in 5 years to win a stage in a Tour de France. He made it through hilly terrain in the massif central highlands of France to win Stage 10. Jonas Vinegaard retains a 17 second lead overall. 

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The SCHOOL survey by eminent researchers shows that that 37% of rural school children in India are dropping out- an alarming piece of information. Only 8% of rural school children have access to online classes regularly. The figure for urban areas in India is 24% of school children having access to online learning regularly. This could have serious consequences. Getting primary and secondary schoolchildren back into classes is an important goal during the pandemic. Online learning has only a limited reach at this time. Many households have no smartphone or only one smartphone that is used by adults. The SCHOOL survey covered 15 states and 1362 sample households. Between 51 and 58% of students had not met their teachers in the preceding month according to the survey.  This also affects nutrition as schoolchildren are missing the midday meals given at school. Midday meals were discontinued with the closure of schools. Overall this report says 97% of parents support reopening of schools. ...

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The cost will increase the longer the effort for cleanup of PFAS chemicals used in military bases is delayed and could also lead to increased contamination of water in surrounding areas. In 2025 the cost is about $31 billion for 50 US military installations says The Guardian.  The Environmental Working Group policy analysis group senior analyst Jared Hayes is cited in The Guardian- "The DoD is facing a ticking cleanup time bomb as funding falls dramatically behind cleanup costs.” “The DoD has an obligation to its service members, the families living on bases, and the surrounding communities that have already been contaminated, so they need to clean up their mess." The adjoining article in Le Monde shows the awareness being created by Le Monde and its partners and The Forever Pollution Project in Europe about PFAS cleanup in France, and in Europe. ...

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Production cuts of 9.7 million barrels a day of oil are negotiated by president Trump to save the global oil industry. Yet demand has dropped by 30 million barrels a day by April 12, 2020 from the pandemic.

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A charm offensive is under way following the New York primary led by Mr. Manafort to show the Republican National Committee (RNC) Trump is just "playing a part" and has another demeanor. Wiley points out that Trump would appeal to traditionally Democratic states in the midwest that have working class Reagan Democrats. This follows a parallel effort by Trump presenting an election narrative to draw voters by saying that the system is rigged, first banking, then trade, now the way delegates are chosen, to increase voter support at a time when voters have genuine concerns. Yet the fact that Trump won 90% of the delegates with 60% of the vote in New York, provides proof that it is not, says Vince Preibus, RNC chairman. Others point to the splintered vote in the early primaries as disproportionately benefitting Trump, as well as the media coverage for sensational statements, and jingoistic talk about China, Mexico and Muslims.

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Voters back about $10 billion in bonds to start a high speed rail network system for California and $18 billion for expanding mass transit service in Seattle. About 23 initiatives were approved that would inject $75 billion into transportation systems according to the Center for Transportation Excellence. About 70% of transportation funding measures on the ballot were approved showing voter support.

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UK joins Erasmus for 570 million pounds in 2027 one hundred thousand students benefit in first year. UK government says it will “create educational and training opportunities for British apprentices, further education students and adult learners, as well as those in higher education”. It is a new reset with the European Union and part of Labour's manifesto. This is one program that deserved support and has added great value to the community of Europe. It also opens up UK universities for EU students widening the impact to millions of students over a decade that understand the importance of the community of Europe. Shown here are students from UK at Humboldt University campus in Berlin.

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We asked the question if survey respondents by 60% chose Nature to replace historical figures, why wildlife, why not British gardens which are famous and something Britons can be proud of? This BBC report by Kevin Peachey shows why but does not fully answer that question. Banknotes from Sri Lanka and Asian countries already show nature or birds unique to each country.  Scientists in England's Industrial Revolution that set the example for the Industrial Revolution in the rest of Europe, then Asia, or landmarks, cathedrals including Salisbury location of Magna Carta were these not candidates that Britons could be proud of? All these made an enormous impact on people's lives, not just in England but in the whole world. 

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This Washington Post Editorial Board Opinion asks Europe to get serious about its energy needs and finding alternate supplies than Hormuz, that the US president DJT is sending the right message "Go get your own oil." And this is true also for China, Japan, South Korea and India. What there is no need for is the posturing of these countries when it is China and Japan that are dependent on Hormuz strait and that region for 90% of their imports, not the US which is zero dependent and self sufficient. Germany has shown the way with only 6% of its imports from that region, Italy and Britain have not acted to find other alternate supplies.