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Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Mitt Romney describes his experiences with different companies he worked with at Bain Capital and how he would use that experience in his job as President. One approach he emphasizes is proactive problem solving and tackling problems early.

Putin Blinked

New York Times Original article ›
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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....
Washington Post Original article ›
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A report from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the impact of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 on the wealth of American households. Between 2007 and 2010 says the report the median net worth of American families went down by 39%, from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010. This had the result of putting Americans back to the level of net worth in 1992. Much of the loss in net worth was from asset value reductions. The median value of stock market based retirement accounts decreased by 7% to $44,000. The biggest drop was in housing values- falling by 42% to $55,000 in the three years. Americans are working down their debt- a quarter of families are debt free, credit card balances declined 16% to $2600 from $3100 from the period 2007 to 2010 of the report. Yet the median level of family debt remains the same as more families support their kids education by taking out college loans. Median income fell about 8% to $45,800 in 2010, with income losses especially large in the manufacturing industries as the U.S. manufacturing sector worked to improve competitiveness. Other factors supplement this picture. The burden of college loans increased to over $1 trillion for middle and working class families. With the burden of college debt young people were more likely to delay buying first homes, indefinitely dealying recovery in the housing market. Seniors on retirement see interest income from savings negligible with low interest rates and higher risk in a volatile stock market. ...
New York Times Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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India's ruling Congres party suffered losses in the two major states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. In Uttar Pradesh, the socialist Samajwadi party gained an absolute majority of 224 seats in the 403 seat assembly. The Bahujan Samaj party of Kumari Mayawati lost its majority winning only 80 seats, the BJP won 47 seats and the Congress won only 28 seats. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party campaigned heavily in the state and the results show that his campaign against Mayawati did not result in Congress gaining enough seats to form a coalition government with the Samajwadi party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav. Yadav has held the position of chief minister three times before, and campaigned for greater rights for lower castes and for a quota in education and jobs for Muslims. His other campaign promises included increasing electricity production, and improving the business climate. In the Punjab state, the Shiromani Akali Dal party won 56 of 117 seats, with the Congress getting 46 seats. National elections will be held in 2014, and the results reflect a repudiation of the Congress party after corruption scandals, slower economic growth, and lack of clear policy direction....
New York Times Original article ›
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Friedman visits the campaign office of Abdel Moneim Fotouh, a doctor running for president of Egypt. What he finds is a lively debate among Egyptians, new and many voices discussing the future of Egypt and a transition to democratic forms of government and economic progress. One newly elected member of parliament Hamzawy tells Friedman that Islamists from the Brotherhood have about two thirds of the seats, the liberals 20%. Moderates within the Islamists like Fotouh, who left the Brotherhood, form a separate faction inside the Brotherhood. There will be a need to transcend differences and work together. Egypt is still under the rule of the military, but many democratic voices are now present and a lively debate is on which will provide the impetus for real change and progress, if properly channelled.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Serious problems facing Turkey's economy. Turkey takes on too many risks as exports cannot keep up with rising imports leading to a severe current account imbalance. Official statistics show the economic growth at 11% in the first quarter, with the growth coming mainly from the construction, retail and financial sectors, and a result of a surge in demand and rapid credit growth. Imports expanded at 42.6% , and exports at 11.7%. The Turkish manufacturing sector has not strengthening its competitiveness. And increases in manufacturing output come from increased imports- with 85% of imports being commodities and semifinished goods, according to an Istanbul economist who contributed to a recent 350 page strategy report commissioned by the Erdogan government. Fast economic growth comes from rapid growth in credit, and consumption demand, but the underlying manufacturing competitiveness and economic fundamentals show warning signs. The government of prime minister Erdogan- distracted by politics and efforts to change the constitution- appears not to have grasped the urgency of the situation it faces....
New York Times Original article ›
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Under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) executive order of 2012, a group of immigrants brought to the country as children can have temporary status to stay and work in the U.S. In 2012 this was restricted to children brought in under the age of 16, with a maximum age of 30. The program was called "Dreamers." Under president Obama's executive order this will be changed to children brought in under the age of 18, with no maximum age. The number of immigrants goes up from 1.2 million in 2012 to 1.9 million with this particular change in 2014. A new group of parents of children who are citizens or legal residents residing in the U.S. for more than 5 years adds another 3.3 million to this number, with an additional 100,000 for parents of Dreamers. The total 1.9 million children and 3.4 million parents would be 5.3 million given new status to stay and work in the U.S. The 5.3 million will not be eligible for subsidies and for the Affordable Healthcare Act assistance. All will be required to pass security checks. This leaves about 6 million, including farm workers and other undocumented or illegal immigrants not touched by the new executive order. President Obama is expected to make the announcement of the executive order on Nov. 20, 2014, in Nevada, a state with a large Hispanic population. On the question of legal authority for the executive order, Prof. Stephen Yale-Loehr, an expert on immigration law at Cornell says the U.S. president does have broad authority to decide which group should get a reprieve from deportations. The decision to exclude benefits of government subsidies and subsidized healthcare was made to appeal to increased support of the American public for the executive order. ...
New York Times Original article ›
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Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is taking carefully planned steps during his second effort as prime minister. Abe is determined to avoid the mistakes of his first effort. This time Abe has focussed on the economy and getting Japan moving again. Nationalist policies are moderated and not allowed to affect trade and economic relations with China. Abe is focussing on winning the upper house elections and creating the stability that eluded other prime ministers.

A Serious Bombing Strategy

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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This Journal editorial points to the 3 page letter from Gen. Dempsey that make a U.S. response in Syria seem difficult and laborious, cost $1 billion a month, and endless. Gen. Keane points to the Syrian air force operating from just 6 main air strips and with about 50 aircraft out of 100 operational, using this to terrorize the opposition and the countryside indiscriminately including civilian population. Taking these out with cruise missile and other strikes is all that is needed, not even a no-fly zone says Keane. Short of a proper response the U.S. and the Obama administration could only end up leaving the Assad regime in place for longer, says the Journal. Aid to rebel groups that can then do the work of completing the transition is the right strategy, says the Journal.
The Economist Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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Bill Keller compares the situation in 1940 with that of today. He sees isolationist tendencies in the U.S. today similiar to that which prevailed in the U.S. in 1940 when Roosevelt faced the Nazi invasion of Europe.
New York Times Original article ›
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Bill Keller of the NYT points out that getting Syria right means getting over the obsession over what went wrong in Iraq and looking objectively at the situation in Syria. He points to the failure of president Obama in grasping what the Assad regime has done to Syria, the refugees in Jordan, the use of artillery and air raids on civilian population, and inviting the support by fundmentalist Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia in the absence of U.S. and European support, making delay after delay by president Obama leading to a paralysis in response. Leaving the question for the future which was a worse U.S. response- the hasty action in Iraq or the paralysis in Syria?
New York Times Original article ›
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About 15% of black men of working age in the population, and 21% of black women, were employed in the U.S. public sector, according to the population survey. The Labor Department reports 500,000 jobs in the public sector were lost since 2007. This reverses an historical trend of resilience in jobs for the public sector during economic downturns. If population increase since 2007 is figured in there are even fewer jobs considering more jobs might have been added, with estimates as high as 1.8 million. This is bad for black people in the U.S. because many work in public sector jobs driving school buses, in the post office, in the police and in other public services, with black people being 30% more likely than whites to hold a public sector job, and twice that of Hispanics. Thic comes at a time when the black community has seen a devastating impact from the foreclosures and other economic damage that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The result is shown in a study of foreclosures for 2005-2009 at Cornell University showing mostly black and Latino neighborhoods were affected by foreclosures at three times the rates for white neighborhoods. According to Pew Research Center the median white family had net assets of $142,000 compared to $11,000 for the median black family. With median black household income at 60% of that of white households the gap keeps increasing especially with high unemployment in black neighborhoods....
New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The election debate brodcast live on Iranian television between Moussavi and Ahmadinejad. Moussavi described Ahmadinejad's foreign policy as engaging in " adventurism, illusionism, exhibitionism, extremism, and superficiality. He also described Ahmadinejad's denial of the Holocaust as harming Iran's standing with the rest of the world, and undermining its dignity. The debate was intense with Moussavi at one point saying the Iranian president was moving towards a "dictatorship." Ahmadinejad said that Moussavi was being supported by Khatami and Hashemi to bring him down. A video showing this simple home was circulated before the debate to contrast Ahmadinejad's simple style with that of some of his opponents like Nateq Nouri, a conservative Speaker of Parliament.
New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A black supporter of Obama, Ms. Hart, tells him- " I'm exhausted of defending you, defending your administration. I've been told that I voted for a man who was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class." This encounter happened at an hour long town hall meeting on CNBC, which John Harwood moderated. Harwood asked Obama whether he was having difficulty connecting with average Americans because of attending Ivy League schools and spending part of his youth overseas. The incident reflects the frustration and disappointment felt by average Americans with the Obama administration and with Obama.
Washington Post Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A Yale scholar's view of the Obama presidency based on what he sees as a presidency struggling for compromise and consensus.
Washington Post Original article ›

Not More of the Same

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
John Taylor, says Obama and Alan Krueger (Obama's new head of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors), said some of the same things in early September, 2011, that were part of Obama's old plan to revive the U.S. economy. And the old plan has failed to produce results. The part that puts construction crews to work on the roads, railways and airports was tried earlier in the stimulus plan. Because of a lack of showel ready projects, and the state governments putting most of the money in their state coffers, this only increased infrastructure by a miniscule 0.05 percent of GDP, according to research by Taylor and John Cogan. Taylor's sees the moves by the Obama administration and the Bernanke Fed as not only being ineffective, but having the opposite effect of lowering investment and consumption demand through increased concerns about the federal debt, another financial crisis or the risk of inflation or deflation. The U.S. private sector has the money to make the investments that create jobs but their concerns have led to holding back. Taylor points to the need for a comprehensive economic strategy to replace these temporary interventions. The debt limit agreement of 2011 is a part of this strategy, and he agrees with reducing spending in a gradual way in a weak economy. The other parts of this strategy he says are entitlement reform, tax reform, regulatory reform, monetary reform, including a reappraisal of the role of government in the economy. This should lead to a more stable and predictable economic environment and reduced uncertainty about the future, which is critical to improving supply and demand....
Washington Post Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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The first of a series of quarterly reports put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, on the subject of household debt and credit. It shows that the process of unwinding consumer debt in the US is a slow and painful one. The figures tell the story, which touch every aspect of the US economy and business, with ripple effects through the world economy. Total consumer debt is $11.7 trillion as of June 30, 2010, which is down 6.5% from the crest reached in the third quarter 2008. Credit card accounts are down 23% from the high reached in second quarter 2008, and mortgage obligations down 6.4% from 2008. By mid 2010 11.4% of consumer debt was delinquent, and this was up from 11.2% in 2009. $1.3 trillion of consumer debt is delinquent, and $986 billion is seriously delinquent- that is 90 days late. Serious delinquencies are up by 3.1%. Other figures fromt he Fed report: Half million people in the USA had a foreclosure added to the credit reports for the period March 31, 2010 to June 30, 2010. This was up 8.7% above the figure for first quarter of 2010. New bankruptcies showed up in credit reports for 624,000 people during that quarter, an increase of 34%. Another major problem stacked on top of this for consumer spending- the Fed's interest rate policy according to Todd Petzel, chief investment officer of Offit Capital Advisors, burdens consumers with a tax of $350 billion in income lost from low to zero interest rates. This creates two problems of its own. Not only does it depress consumer spending. It also makes consumers reach out for riskier investments. This figure was calculated by taking $14 trillion in debt issued by Treasury, federal agencies and municipalities. Rates are near zero on short term Treasuries compared to 3% average over the years. Taking 2.5% on $14 trillion, the figure of $350 billion was arrived at. Or 2% of gross domestic product. Analysts say that it would be better not to save a few zombie banks at the expense of consumers and pension funds. It lowers the cost of the deficits through the lower interest rates the government pays on its debt, but lower consumer spending and a limping economy hurt tax revenues and increases the deficit....
Washington Post Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Germany went through a period of stagnant growth and persistently high unemployment leading to reforms of the welfare system and entitlements under the Schroeder administration. The reforms led to lower unemployment benefits and an effort to get the unemployed take up jobs. Instead of unemployment benefits that amounted to half the salary indefinitely, unemployment benefits ended in 12 months under the reforms, and workers were forced to take up jobs or dig into their savings. The cuts to benefits led to more of the unemployed taking jobs that were not their first choice with lower incomes. Unions agreed to defer wage demands and wages remained relatively flat for a long period. The "kurzarbeit" system of government subsidizing employers to retain workers during economic downturns, helped cushion the workforce from ups and downs in the economy. Unemployment which was in double digits a decade ago, is now 6.1%. The system still preserved some other aspects of generous benefits- parental leave of 14 months at two-thirds salary, vacation time and publicly sponsored health insurance. Recent changes include raising the retirement age to 67 from 65. The Organization of Economc Cooperation and Development estimates that the 200,000 jobs saved in Germany during the recession of 2008-2009 cost the government $7 billion. Government funds helped companies retain workers by paying a portion of worker salaries and averting layoffs.This comes to $35,000 per job. Compare this with the $38.9 billion allocated to a loan program at the Energy Department under the U.S. stimulus. 8050 jobs were created under this program according to the Washington Post- for the money spent so far in Sept 2011- 2 years into the loan program, of $19.3 billion. This comes to $2.4 million in government guaranteed loans per job. The Energy Department says that 33,000 jobs were saved under the $5.9 billion that was given to the auto industry under this program for investments in manufacturing to improve fuel efficiency. This comes to $178,000 per job. The Energy Department and Congress estimated a 5%-10% loss on the $38.6 billion loan program for loans that go sour, such as the Solyndra solar company $535 million loan. This comes to $1.9 billion at 5% loss and $3.8 billion for a 10% loss. The purpose of these figures is to show the cost of programs when the programs fail to achieve job goals or produce too little for the investment. The $3.8 billion loss under the program is over half the $7 billon Germany invested for the 200,000 jobs saved as estimated by the OECD. That ranks as a far superior investment than the Energy Department program. For the U.S. there are aspects of German reforms such as "kurzarbeit" that bear emulation, with serious questions about the effective use of the U.S. stimulus funds. For the rest of Europe the stingier unemployment benefits, raising the retirement age to 67, and other reforms send a different message. From the average German the message is: we made the tough changes, the rest of Europe cannot expect Germans to pay higher taxes while they put off similiar changes. Italy needs to change its retirement age, just as the Germans have done. As Chancellor Merkel puts it: "People in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal shouldn't be able to retire earlier than in Germany. It's important for everybody to put in effort to make it roughly equal. Germany will only help when others really make an effort." Which is why Greece, Spain, Italy, even France are faced with making serious changes. This isn't stalling when it comes to euro bonds, from the German perspective. And it isn't about the lack of committment to the idea of a European Union, as all major political parties in Germany, the CDP, the SDP and the Greens, all strongly support the idea of a European Union. ...

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